I think it can be difficult to compare this year to last year. On Dec 31 last year, we were on pace to win 36 games without Rondo but we had Jordan Crawford playing at an exceptional level along with some other players who performed well. Crawford's run did not last and he was traded and we went on to win only 25 games total with Rondo on the court for many of the remaining games.
The break down this year seems to have the same groupings as last year as I recall (east conf). There is the top tier (Cle, Chi, and maybe Tor, Wash,) then a much bigger middle tier this year (Mia, Atl, Bkn, Nyk, and Cha) and then there is the bottom tier which unfortunately, I believe the Celtics will be in again (Bos, Phi, Mil, Orl).
The remaining teams (Det, Ind) harder to peg. They will probably be middle teams but they also could easily be lower tier. Some of my assumptions:
- I think Bkn will be good enough to be mid pack with Williams, Johnson, Lopez, and KG. Injuries could derail that but there is a lot more talent there than the Celtics have
- I think the knicks will be good. They have Carmelo and enough of a supporting cast to be out of the bottom tier
- Ind lost their two top players (arguably). Very hard to gauge how they will do
- Detroit has the talent and a new coach so they could make the leap but we have been saying that for a few years
So I am at 25 to 30 wins, in the bottom 4 or 5 teams, but lots of exciting games and individual player development.
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