I want to see Bradley improve his game. I would like to see his production jump to somewhere along the lines of 17-18 ppg, 4-5 rpg, 1.7-1.8 spg on 45%/37%/85% shootings.
For Bradley's contract to be a bargain, not just "viewed as a bargain"......then the rest of the players either have to be "overpaid" or "underproduce" compared to Avery's numbers.
If we want to compare current contracts with the current new TV broadcasting deals, with the old contracts and old TV broadcasting deals, the most, if not all contracts will look like "bargains".
But maybe some of us are already doing that comparison and possibly over projecting future dealings. Maybe Bradley's deal will, in the end, be a bargain.
Why?
Because, quite possibly, more and more teams will have an influx of cap money to spend on potential new players.
These teams may compete with one another and drive up the contracts per season salary.
All the while, Avery's contract stays constant.
But the above scenario is not in Avery's hands. He had no control over what other teams may or may not do. What Avery has control over is how he practices, how he conditions, how he learns about his teammates and from them and from his coaches.
I do think Avery has a good chance to earn his contract and if other teams with "mad money" and the free spirit to hand pay days out to players.....then Avery's deal may indeed end up as a bargain.
He basically already averaged those numbers last season on a per 36 minute basis. He played 31 MPG so extrapolation is actually okay in this situation. The issue is, you probably don't actually want Bradley averaging 17 PPG because of how many shots it would take for him to get those numbers on 45/37/85 shooting. He doesn't get to the FT line, and I doubt that will change much even at his young age. FT rate is one of those things that rarely changes significantly. So last year, he averaged 17 PPG per 36 on 44/40/80 shooting but it would have taken him 16 FGA. Those FG percentages are actually really good, but he is limited by the fact that he hasn't shown any ability to draw fouls.
I'd rather Bradley sit back as a 12-14 PPG player with elite defense and shooting. At 8 million a year, that's still a bargain. If he can ever increase his FT rate, you are looking at a player that is GREATLY undervalued at 8 million a year. You'd be surprised at the kind of players that get 8 a year. It's really not that high in today's NBA let alone tomorrow's NBA when the cap increases.
If Bradley were to maintain his 44/40/80 percentages and increase his 3Pr to 30% (25% last year) and increase his FTr to 25% (13.6% last year), you are looking at a guy who would average 17.1 PPG on 14.3 FGA in 32 MPG based on his FGA/min distribution last year. That would actually be really, really good, and with his defense, that kind of player is worth closer to 15 million than 8 million. Point is, it's very unlikely to see him double his FTr so you are probably looking at a guy who should stick around 12-14 PPG, which is still definitely worth 8 million, if not a million or two more, with his defense and overall shooting ability.
Honestly, I'm hoping by some awesome way, Bradley manages to bring his FTr back up to around 18-19% like his first two years in the league. That would be a nice jump for him efficiency wise.