Author Topic: Bradley's contract  (Read 3116 times)

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Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2014, 12:31:04 AM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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I want to see Bradley improve his game. I would like to see his production jump to somewhere along the lines of 17-18 ppg, 4-5 rpg, 1.7-1.8 spg on 45%/37%/85% shootings.

For Bradley's contract to be a bargain, not just "viewed as a bargain"......then the rest of the players either have to be "overpaid" or "underproduce" compared to Avery's numbers.

If we want to compare current contracts with the current new TV broadcasting deals, with the old contracts and old TV broadcasting deals, the most, if not all contracts will look like "bargains".

But maybe some of us are already doing that comparison and possibly over projecting future dealings. Maybe Bradley's deal will, in the end, be a bargain.

Why?

Because, quite possibly, more and more teams will have an influx of cap money to spend on potential new players.

These teams may compete with one another and drive up the contracts per season salary.

All the while, Avery's contract stays constant.

But the above scenario is not in Avery's hands. He had no control over what other teams may or may not do. What Avery has control over is how he practices, how he conditions, how he learns about his teammates and from them and from his coaches.

I do think Avery has a good chance to earn his contract and if other teams with "mad money" and the free spirit to hand pay days out to players.....then Avery's deal may indeed end up as a bargain.

He basically already averaged those numbers last season on a per 36 minute basis. He played 31 MPG so extrapolation is actually okay in this situation. The issue is, you probably don't actually want Bradley averaging 17 PPG because of how many shots it would take for him to get those numbers on 45/37/85 shooting. He doesn't get to the FT line, and I doubt that will change much even at his young age. FT rate is one of those things that rarely changes significantly. So last year, he averaged 17 PPG per 36 on 44/40/80 shooting but it would have taken him 16 FGA. Those FG percentages are actually really good, but he is limited by the fact that he hasn't shown any ability to draw fouls.

I'd rather Bradley sit back as a 12-14 PPG player with elite defense and shooting. At 8 million a year, that's still a bargain. If he can ever increase his FT rate, you are looking at a player that is GREATLY undervalued at 8 million a year. You'd be surprised at the kind of players that get 8 a year. It's really not that high in today's NBA let alone tomorrow's NBA when the cap increases.

If Bradley were to maintain his 44/40/80 percentages and increase his 3Pr to 30% (25% last year) and increase his FTr to 25% (13.6% last year), you are looking at a guy who would average 17.1 PPG on 14.3 FGA in 32 MPG based on his FGA/min distribution last year. That would actually be really, really good, and with his defense, that kind of player is worth closer to 15 million than 8 million. Point is, it's very unlikely to see him double his FTr so you are probably looking at a guy who should stick around 12-14 PPG, which is still definitely worth 8 million, if not a million or two more, with his defense and overall shooting ability.

Honestly, I'm hoping by some awesome way, Bradley manages to bring his FTr back up to around 18-19% like his first two years in the league. That would be a nice jump for him efficiency wise.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2014, 12:47:12 AM by DarkAzcura »

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2014, 09:39:53 AM »

Offline CelticsFanFromNYC

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let's put it this way, excluding players on rookie contracts, who else could you get at the SG position for that kind of money that would be better than Bradley?

This hit it on top of the head wit a ugly stick!

Where's that Roy guy you guys always talk about so he can break down how after the CBA contract Avery's will be a bargain???  Other than Lance, (who more then likely didnt want to be here) there was no one to sign who is young enough to be part of the rebuild let alone just sign in general.


Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2014, 09:44:12 AM »

Offline manl_lui

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I think Bradley's contract is a steal considering the new TV deal...but then again that would also make Lance Stephenson's contract even sweeter for the Hornets

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2014, 09:50:44 AM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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let's put it this way, excluding players on rookie contracts, who else could you get at the SG position for that kind of money that would be better than Bradley?

Spilled milk, but we did have Courtney Lee for almost half the price. Ariza got the same money and is probably a better SG, but it's debatable.

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2014, 09:59:11 AM »

Offline manl_lui

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let's put it this way, excluding players on rookie contracts, who else could you get at the SG position for that kind of money that would be better than Bradley?

Spilled milk, but we did have Courtney Lee for almost half the price. Ariza got the same money and is probably a better SG, but it's debatable.

I agree with the Courtney Lee comparison but Ariza is much older. There is a chance that when Bradley reaches Ariza's age, he'll probably be better

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2014, 10:12:13 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Interesting thoughts.
IMHO Ainge simply made a gamble that at 23 AB still has a significant upside. The key thing is to improve his 3p%. If he does this, then he will be an elite 3 and D SG.

He can't realistically be expected to raise his 3pt% by much more, he shot 40% last season. He makes 8m and while you forum heads think you know what his value is, it doesn't matter, Ainge obviously feels different.

Every time I turn people say how AB is overpaid, I have yet to see real comparisons of people who make less (not a rookie pay scale) who are as good on both ends as AB is and at 23y.o.!

I agree, AB can't dribble or pass very well. Other than that, he will be fine if healthy. I know he missed 20 games last season but he would probably have missed closer to 10 if we actually had a playoff team, they purposely held him out longer as an extra precaution.

Sometimes I think you people are a little too salty (acting as if it's their money) and are just HOPING a player fails because you don't like them or have unrealistic expectations. It's funny to me because I don't care who they are, if they suit up for a team I root for I HOPE for the best out of them! Like I said b4, I HATE Kobe but if he played for us I would cheer for his best (still hate him and please NO lol). 

Making 500 threads saying the same thing also doesn't make sense to me.
Thanks for the correction. I had heard so many times that AB cannot shoot that I absorbed the info without ever looking at his stats. Yet, his FG% is low, and his 3p performance might be improved in the sense that he made only 199 shots in 60 games (3.3 shots per game).

His FG% is low ... because he shot a lot of 3PT shots!  But FG% by itself is not a good measure of shooting for players that shoot a lot of 3PT shots.  A better measure is eFG%, which properly weights 3PT shots for their additional value.   Bradley's eFG% was a very healthy 48.5% last year.

That said - to your point that he only averaged 3.3 per game, you have to look at what actually happened last year.

As ImShakHeIsShaq noted, Bradley started the year shooting very few 3s and instead was shooting a lot of mid-long 2pt jumpers.  This drove many of us nuts.   But gradually, as the year progressed, he moved more and more outside the arc.

In November of last season, he averaged just 2.2 three point shot attempts per game.

In March and April of last season, he averaged 5.7 threes per game.  And hit them at a 47% clip!

Judging by how he has shot threes this pre-season, the expectation is that he will continue to use it as his primary weapon as he was doing in the last half of last season.

The last half of the season... ::)

If we're actually looking at what happened last year, Bradley played in 13 games over March and April, including one game where he went 2-11 from downtown. 13 games is probably too small a sample size to really be considered, especially when you compare it to the 46 or so games that he played when the club was actually trying to be competitive. Because, lets be honest, you're not trying to win the game if you've got Bradley shooting 11 threes in a game against Philadelphia -- a game that the C's lost.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bradlav01/gamelog/2014/
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Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2014, 10:29:16 AM »

Offline Donoghus

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The Bradley contract isn't a bargain, its market value. 

With the new CBA kicking in, I have a tough time seeing this deal ever being an albatross unless injuries derail the kid's career.


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Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2014, 10:39:32 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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The Bradley contract isn't a bargain, its market value. 

With the new CBA kicking in, I have a tough time seeing this deal ever being an albatross unless injuries derail the kid's career.

Even then it's doubtful that it'll ever really be a 'bad' contract in the Amar'e sense. It's just not big enough.
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Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2014, 01:36:32 PM »

Offline LB3533

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I want to see Bradley improve his game. I would like to see his production jump to somewhere along the lines of 17-18 ppg, 4-5 rpg, 1.7-1.8 spg on 45%/37%/85% shootings.

For Bradley's contract to be a bargain, not just "viewed as a bargain"......then the rest of the players either have to be "overpaid" or "underproduce" compared to Avery's numbers.

If we want to compare current contracts with the current new TV broadcasting deals, with the old contracts and old TV broadcasting deals, the most, if not all contracts will look like "bargains".

But maybe some of us are already doing that comparison and possibly over projecting future dealings. Maybe Bradley's deal will, in the end, be a bargain.

Why?

Because, quite possibly, more and more teams will have an influx of cap money to spend on potential new players.

These teams may compete with one another and drive up the contracts per season salary.

All the while, Avery's contract stays constant.

But the above scenario is not in Avery's hands. He had no control over what other teams may or may not do. What Avery has control over is how he practices, how he conditions, how he learns about his teammates and from them and from his coaches.

I do think Avery has a good chance to earn his contract and if other teams with "mad money" and the free spirit to hand pay days out to players.....then Avery's deal may indeed end up as a bargain.

He basically already averaged those numbers last season on a per 36 minute basis. He played 31 MPG so extrapolation is actually okay in this situation. The issue is, you probably don't actually want Bradley averaging 17 PPG because of how many shots it would take for him to get those numbers on 45/37/85 shooting. He doesn't get to the FT line, and I doubt that will change much even at his young age. FT rate is one of those things that rarely changes significantly. So last year, he averaged 17 PPG per 36 on 44/40/80 shooting but it would have taken him 16 FGA. Those FG percentages are actually really good, but he is limited by the fact that he hasn't shown any ability to draw fouls.

I'd rather Bradley sit back as a 12-14 PPG player with elite defense and shooting. At 8 million a year, that's still a bargain. If he can ever increase his FT rate, you are looking at a player that is GREATLY undervalued at 8 million a year. You'd be surprised at the kind of players that get 8 a year. It's really not that high in today's NBA let alone tomorrow's NBA when the cap increases.

If Bradley were to maintain his 44/40/80 percentages and increase his 3Pr to 30% (25% last year) and increase his FTr to 25% (13.6% last year), you are looking at a guy who would average 17.1 PPG on 14.3 FGA in 32 MPG based on his FGA/min distribution last year. That would actually be really, really good, and with his defense, that kind of player is worth closer to 15 million than 8 million. Point is, it's very unlikely to see him double his FTr so you are probably looking at a guy who should stick around 12-14 PPG, which is still definitely worth 8 million, if not a million or two more, with his defense and overall shooting ability.

Honestly, I'm hoping by some awesome way, Bradley manages to bring his FTr back up to around 18-19% like his first two years in the league. That would be a nice jump for him efficiency wise.

Thank you for your depth my good C's fan. I tended to over emphasize the raw numbers when looking over contract values etc.

A closer examination on the detailed "advanced" numbers is wicked cool. Thanks again, TP!

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2014, 01:38:15 PM »

Offline LB3533

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The Bradley contract isn't a bargain, its market value. 

With the new CBA kicking in, I have a tough time seeing this deal ever being an albatross unless injuries derail the kid's career.

I agree with ya! I, too, am concerned with Bradley's injury history and future.

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2014, 01:42:02 PM »

Offline LB3533

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The Bradley contract isn't a bargain, its market value. 

With the new CBA kicking in, I have a tough time seeing this deal ever being an albatross unless injuries derail the kid's career.

Even then it's doubtful that it'll ever really be a 'bad' contract in the Amar'e sense. It's just not big enough.

Agree with you too, LOL!

Ainged made the right move, maybe it was Ainge's only play since not many guards wanted to sign with us anyway, right?

Avery's contract should never be labeled as a "cap killer" or what have you, but because Ainge inked the deal, what we do have is a very good chance to maintain a quality rotational starter or role player with high defensive acumen.

Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2014, 06:09:26 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Interesting thoughts.
IMHO Ainge simply made a gamble that at 23 AB still has a significant upside. The key thing is to improve his 3p%. If he does this, then he will be an elite 3 and D SG.

He can't realistically be expected to raise his 3pt% by much more, he shot 40% last season. He makes 8m and while you forum heads think you know what his value is, it doesn't matter, Ainge obviously feels different.

Every time I turn people say how AB is overpaid, I have yet to see real comparisons of people who make less (not a rookie pay scale) who are as good on both ends as AB is and at 23y.o.!

I agree, AB can't dribble or pass very well. Other than that, he will be fine if healthy. I know he missed 20 games last season but he would probably have missed closer to 10 if we actually had a playoff team, they purposely held him out longer as an extra precaution.

Sometimes I think you people are a little too salty (acting as if it's their money) and are just HOPING a player fails because you don't like them or have unrealistic expectations. It's funny to me because I don't care who they are, if they suit up for a team I root for I HOPE for the best out of them! Like I said b4, I HATE Kobe but if he played for us I would cheer for his best (still hate him and please NO lol). 

Making 500 threads saying the same thing also doesn't make sense to me.
Thanks for the correction. I had heard so many times that AB cannot shoot that I absorbed the info without ever looking at his stats. Yet, his FG% is low, and his 3p performance might be improved in the sense that he made only 199 shots in 60 games (3.3 shots per game).

His FG% is low ... because he shot a lot of 3PT shots!  But FG% by itself is not a good measure of shooting for players that shoot a lot of 3PT shots.  A better measure is eFG%, which properly weights 3PT shots for their additional value.   Bradley's eFG% was a very healthy 48.5% last year.

That said - to your point that he only averaged 3.3 per game, you have to look at what actually happened last year.

As ImShakHeIsShaq noted, Bradley started the year shooting very few 3s and instead was shooting a lot of mid-long 2pt jumpers.  This drove many of us nuts.   But gradually, as the year progressed, he moved more and more outside the arc.

In November of last season, he averaged just 2.2 three point shot attempts per game.

In March and April of last season, he averaged 5.7 threes per game.  And hit them at a 47% clip!

Judging by how he has shot threes this pre-season, the expectation is that he will continue to use it as his primary weapon as he was doing in the last half of last season.

The last half of the season... ::)

If we're actually looking at what happened last year, Bradley played in 13 games over March and April, including one game where he went 2-11 from downtown. 13 games is probably too small a sample size to really be considered, especially when you compare it to the 46 or so games that he played when the club was actually trying to be competitive. Because, lets be honest, you're not trying to win the game if you've got Bradley shooting 11 threes in a game against Philadelphia -- a game that the C's lost.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bradlav01/gamelog/2014/

The sample is too small to put too much weight on the 3PT% (because it is too small to remove random chance), but it given that it represents games spread out over that full 2 month span it can definitely be use do assert a trend in shot selection.  Shot selection isn't subject to random chance the way shot efficiency is.

And that's the main point -- Avery clearly moved his shot selection farther out -- to the 3PT line -- as the season progressed.   And all indications from this pre-season are that it is a change that will likely persist.

Certainly you don't want to rely on Bradley taking 11 3PT attempts every game.  What does that have to do with anything?

You criticize a 13 game sample for it's small size (being only partly correct in that) and then cherry pick an anomalous game?
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Re: Bradley's contract
« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2014, 06:11:51 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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No, my point is that during the period that Bradley was taking lots of threes the Celtics were pretty obviously not trying to win games, letting him fire away with abandon even if he was shooting poorly.

or:

His three point attempts are consistent throughout the game log until you get to that period where, according to you, he started taking a lot of them. A lot of that has to do with the fact that he was left in to shoot 11 threes in one game. You can say he was taking that shot because he was sure he'd make it, but I'm calling B.S. on that one.
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