Are we tanking this year?

[Donoghus]

I think whoever it was above that claimed its "passive tanking" isn't too far off. 

This team is going to struggle pretty significantly this year.  Development of the youth is the key. 

[LooseCannon]

The team will start the season trying to make the playoffs, doing everything it can that doesn't involve burning picks in a trade.  If that means starting Brandon Bass, then Bass will start.

The team will reassess its goals as the season progresses and may shift to a more tank-ish strategy, but it won't start tanking right out of the gate.

Plan A is probably to have the best possible team, so that it is more attractive to free agents to play next to Rondo.  Making the playoffs is probably preferred to being a bottom five team.

[greece66]

It all depends on what we mean by tanking.
And again, no, I do not mean, Stevens tells the players 'you have to lose this game'.
Neither do I suggest we will waste all 82 games merely as an opportunity to get a good draft pick.

Having said this, this team is designed for long term success, trades and salary cap flexibility.
This comes at a certain cost.
Moreover, with the new draft rules it makes a lot more sense to finish, say,  13-14th in the Conference than 9-10th. But again it is much more subtle than asking your players to lose on purpose.

[Smokeeye123]

Yes. Anyone who thinks we should try to win games is asking for more years of this dreadful no hope vomit of a basketball team. Smart *so far* looks like a bust. "Hey lets draft another PG who cant shoot!" and there is no hope for this team outside of getting another elite prospect or trading some of our pile of dung players for a good one.

Rondo can't even shower without slipping on a bar of soap and missing 8 weeks, Jeff Green needs a psychiatrist and is horribly inconsistent, Gerald Wallace is....how is Gerald wallace still in the NBA? Sullinger can't lay off the Burger King, and Olynyk spends way to much time conditioning his hair.

This is the hand we've been dealt. It's time to fold. Look at how promising the 76ers look right now. Because they did it and are doing it right. They will epicly tank again this season and be rewarded again with another stud prospect while we will probably get the 7th or 8th pick and be in the revolving circle of mediocrity and despair. Oh and good news! After this season the league is going to decrease the odds to make it even harder to tank. So Woo hoo! Our hopes will be crushed even further!

[Smokeeye123]

Just had to get that off my chest. I actually like Olynyk and Sully and think they are decentish.

[Moranis]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins and if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

All of them (minus Turner) were here last year when we didn't necessarily try to win. Also it's been said countless times but the difference between 20 wins and 25 wins is nothing now that the lotto system has changed.

sure it is.  you still get better odds and if you don't win the lottery you get a better pick.  I'd much rather have Exum than Smart, and would certainly rather have Parker, Wiggins, or Embiid.  One draft spot can make all the difference in the world. 

[Moranis]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins

This

if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

NOT this.

I really only see Philly and probably Utah as worse teams than us this year in terms of talent.  I think 27 wins is probable with no more than 3-4 teams with worse records (I think it' really just 2 teams).  We'll be in the top 5 for a pick this coming draft and get a solid foundation player for the future if not a franchise player.  preferably Okafor or Towns but there's other players that figure to be good enough to be key building blocks.

Boston won 25 games last year, were tied for the 4th worst record and ended up with the 6th pick.  The year before 25 wins was again 4.  But in 10/11 25 wins would have put you in 7th (I skipped 11/12 b/c it was shorter).  09/10 3rd worst record but 3 more teams were 26 or 27 wins.  08/09 7th worst record.  07/08 7th worst record.  Go back further and there was a bit more parity, but also less teams.  The reality is, if you want to ensure yourself a top 5 pick, you need to be more in the 20 win range, 25 wins is just too many.

[slamtheking]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins

This

if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

NOT this.

I really only see Philly and probably Utah as worse teams than us this year in terms of talent.  I think 27 wins is probable with no more than 3-4 teams with worse records (I think it' really just 2 teams).  We'll be in the top 5 for a pick this coming draft and get a solid foundation player for the future if not a franchise player.  preferably Okafor or Towns but there's other players that figure to be good enough to be key building blocks.

Boston won 25 games last year, were tied for the 4th worst record and ended up with the 6th pick.  The year before 25 wins was again 4.  But in 10/11 25 wins would have put you in 7th (I skipped 11/12 b/c it was shorter).  09/10 3rd worst record but 3 more teams were 26 or 27 wins.  08/09 7th worst record.  07/08 7th worst record.  Go back further and there was a bit more parity, but also less teams.  The reality is, if you want to ensure yourself a top 5 pick, you need to be more in the 20 win range, 25 wins is just too many.

I get your point but I'm thinking that the bottom teams improved in this draft more than we did.  27 wins may be a bit high for this collection of 'talent' but my basic point is that I really don't see this team having a better record than maybe 2-4 other teams in the league. 

I would bank on being better than Philly and most likely Utah unless Exum develops into a world beater faster than expected (and Utah figures out how to maximize Favors, Kanter and Gobert into an impressive big man rotation). 

We would figure to be better than Orlando but they added to really talented rookies and have a lot of young players that they're counting on to develop further (as we are).  They have a better balance of talent than we do so I would not be surprised to see a couple of their young players take the next step to solid starters and Orlando finish with a record similar or better than ours. 

I don't really see anyone else that would figure to be as bad.  Milwaukee woefully underperformed last year based on their roster and they've added Parker to that team.  no excuse for them not to be much better this year.

I'm not focussing on specific win totals.  I'm just looking at the various league rosters in comparison to ours to come up with how I think we'll do in relation to the competition.

[Joe Green]

I do not think in any way we are tanking. If we were.. we would give up Rondo for 5 cents on the dollar as well as Green (yes there is a market for both if you are looking for crap deals).

Philly is the only team tanking from the get go. They are not even hiding it - they are trying to trade the only NBA player they have to lose more games and get a better draft pick.....

I think Danny is doing everything he can to improve the talent level on the team without taking on long term liabilities. Honestly - if you were Danny, how could you make the team better?

I am also, quietly optimistic this team plays well (not nessecaraly wins, but plays well) and is competitive. Mark me down for 30+ wins (unless we trade Rondo/Green for scrubs + picks)...

[guava_wrench]

We aren't tanking. We also aren't making stupid, short-sighted moves to get a little better now at the cost of next year or the year after.

The reality is that we would be willing to move guys who can contribute now, like Green, Thorton or Turner, for future assets. The difference between us and Philly is that I don't think that our management would consider an injured lottery pick a plus (since it helps teams lose). Our management is more concerned with keep Rondo and hoping that he will attract players who want to catch his passes. That being said, I think the team and Rondo both accept that trying to upgrade this season would be counterproductive since they have the long term in mind.

Winning a few more games this season won't impress Rondo. Building a good foundation will.

[hwangjini_1]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins

This

if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

NOT this.

I really only see Philly and probably Utah as worse teams than us this year in terms of talent.  I think 27 wins is probable with no more than 3-4 teams with worse records (I think it' really just 2 teams).  We'll be in the top 5 for a pick this coming draft and get a solid foundation player for the future if not a franchise player.  preferably Okafor or Towns but there's other players that figure to be good enough to be key building blocks.

Boston won 25 games last year, were tied for the 4th worst record and ended up with the 6th pick.  The year before 25 wins was again 4.  But in 10/11 25 wins would have put you in 7th (I skipped 11/12 b/c it was shorter).  09/10 3rd worst record but 3 more teams were 26 or 27 wins.  08/09 7th worst record.  07/08 7th worst record.  Go back further and there was a bit more parity, but also less teams.  The reality is, if you want to ensure yourself a top 5 pick, you need to be more in the 20 win range, 25 wins is just too many.

i understand. but the new system of calculating lottery odds changes how we look at this data. the system has changed somewhat, so should our assumptions. now, slots 1-6 are not all that different.

even picks 7-10 have increased chances of moving up in the lottery when compared to the old system.

[guava_wrench]

I do not think in any way we are tanking. If we were.. we would give up Rondo for 5 cents on the dollar as well as Green (yes there is a market for both if you are looking for crap deals).

Philly is the only team tanking from the get go. They are not even hiding it - they are trying to trade the only NBA player they have to lose more games and get a better draft pick.....

I think Danny is doing everything he can to improve the talent level on the team without taking on long term liabilities. Honestly - if you were Danny, how could you make the team better?

I am also, quietly optimistic this team plays well (not nessecaraly wins, but plays well) and is competitive. Mark me down for 30+ wins (unless we trade Rondo/Green for scrubs + picks)...

I agree, though I would add that apart from not taking on long term liabilities, he also does not want to give up assets for the next few years for a one year rental.

[guava_wrench]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins

This

if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

NOT this.

I really only see Philly and probably Utah as worse teams than us this year in terms of talent.  I think 27 wins is probable with no more than 3-4 teams with worse records (I think it' really just 2 teams).  We'll be in the top 5 for a pick this coming draft and get a solid foundation player for the future if not a franchise player.  preferably Okafor or Towns but there's other players that figure to be good enough to be key building blocks.

Boston won 25 games last year, were tied for the 4th worst record and ended up with the 6th pick.  The year before 25 wins was again 4.  But in 10/11 25 wins would have put you in 7th (I skipped 11/12 b/c it was shorter).  09/10 3rd worst record but 3 more teams were 26 or 27 wins.  08/09 7th worst record.  07/08 7th worst record.  Go back further and there was a bit more parity, but also less teams.  The reality is, if you want to ensure yourself a top 5 pick, you need to be more in the 20 win range, 25 wins is just too many.

i understand. but the new system of calculating lottery odds changes how we look at this data. the system has changed somewhat, so should our assumptions. now, slots 1-6 are not all that different.

Has the new system been approved?

[hwangjini_1]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins

This

if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

NOT this.

I really only see Philly and probably Utah as worse teams than us this year in terms of talent.  I think 27 wins is probable with no more than 3-4 teams with worse records (I think it' really just 2 teams).  We'll be in the top 5 for a pick this coming draft and get a solid foundation player for the future if not a franchise player.  preferably Okafor or Towns but there's other players that figure to be good enough to be key building blocks.

Boston won 25 games last year, were tied for the 4th worst record and ended up with the 6th pick.  The year before 25 wins was again 4.  But in 10/11 25 wins would have put you in 7th (I skipped 11/12 b/c it was shorter).  09/10 3rd worst record but 3 more teams were 26 or 27 wins.  08/09 7th worst record.  07/08 7th worst record.  Go back further and there was a bit more parity, but also less teams.  The reality is, if you want to ensure yourself a top 5 pick, you need to be more in the 20 win range, 25 wins is just too many.

i understand. but the new system of calculating lottery odds changes how we look at this data. the system has changed somewhat, so should our assumptions. now, slots 1-6 are not all that different.

Has the new system been approved?

good point. i jumped the gun on this one. everything i have read expects these changes to happen, but nothing official yet. thanks.

[Moranis]

If we were tanking Rondo, Bass, and Green would not be on the team.  Neither would Turner.

That said, Boston is going to be bad.  Somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 wins

This

if Boston is going to be that bad, I'd rather just go all in on the bad and be a 20 win or less team.

NOT this.

I really only see Philly and probably Utah as worse teams than us this year in terms of talent.  I think 27 wins is probable with no more than 3-4 teams with worse records (I think it' really just 2 teams).  We'll be in the top 5 for a pick this coming draft and get a solid foundation player for the future if not a franchise player.  preferably Okafor or Towns but there's other players that figure to be good enough to be key building blocks.

Boston won 25 games last year, were tied for the 4th worst record and ended up with the 6th pick.  The year before 25 wins was again 4.  But in 10/11 25 wins would have put you in 7th (I skipped 11/12 b/c it was shorter).  09/10 3rd worst record but 3 more teams were 26 or 27 wins.  08/09 7th worst record.  07/08 7th worst record.  Go back further and there was a bit more parity, but also less teams.  The reality is, if you want to ensure yourself a top 5 pick, you need to be more in the 20 win range, 25 wins is just too many.

i understand. but the new system of calculating lottery odds changes how we look at this data. the system has changed somewhat, so should our assumptions. now, slots 1-6 are not all that different.

Has the new system been approved?

good point. i jumped the gun on this one. everything i have read expects these changes to happen, but nothing official yet. thanks.

even if it is you still have to win the lottery to end up with a high pick.  Even if you lose the lottery if you have a real bad record, you still end up with a much better pick.  1 draft slot might make all the difference in the world and 1 win could affect that position.  Had Boston not ended up tied with Utah, we could have had Exum (or maybe still would have wanted Smart, but then could have traded the pick to someone that wanted Exum).  When so much rides on the draft, you need to maximize your draft odds when you are going to be a bad team anyway.