Author Topic: Tank City USA - Boston  (Read 26227 times)

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Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2014, 08:53:47 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Yeah, it's actually about a 1 in 3 chance you won't get a top 3 pick if you have the worst record.
i believe it is possible, though not probable, that three teams could jump in front the the worst record team, putting it at fourth. hence no top 3 pick.
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Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2014, 09:00:28 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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Hopefully we get a top three this time.

Tank


Den tank it right.

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2014, 09:02:00 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Yeah, it's actually about a 1 in 3 chance you won't get a top 3 pick if you have the worst record.
i believe it is possible, though not probable, that three teams could jump in front the the worst record team, putting it at fourth. hence no top 3 pick.

It happens pretty often.  Happened to Memphis in the Oden/Durant draft, for one.

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2014, 09:03:42 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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Yeah, it's actually about a 1 in 3 chance you won't get a top 3 pick if you have the worst record.
i believe it is possible, though not probable, that three teams could jump in front the the worst record team, putting it at fourth. hence no top 3 pick.

In my unorthodox, backwards way of figuring things out, I just went to the tankathon page that showed the Bucks having a 64% chance of landing in the top 3; in other words slightly better than a 1 in 3 shot of winding up fourth.

http://www.tankathon.com/

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #34 on: September 26, 2014, 12:13:31 AM »

Offline CelticSooner

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The C's won't tank nor should they. It's time to develop these assets and see what their compatible of.


Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #35 on: September 26, 2014, 09:19:32 AM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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this team needs to pick a freaking direction. because what we're doing right now is worse than tanking.

at least if we were tanking we would have something to show for it. a high pick. but this game we're playing could land us just out of the playoffs - the worse spot to be in.

sure there's generally good players available throughout the 1st rnd. but if we're going to be "just ok" and get an "ok" pick out of it? why not go all out and optimize you're chance at getting a "great" pick?

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #36 on: September 26, 2014, 10:56:25 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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LOL.  What if you have the worst record in the NBA and end up with pick #3. Then Okafor and Towns go 1-2 in the draft.  You're still screwed.  Celtics had a chance to have the #4 pick, they end up with the #6 pick because they lost a coin flip.  When you rely on chance, get ready to lose what you're betting on.

C's have been historically snakebitten in the lottery.  On the other hand, Cleveland has won the second most #1 picks in the lottery and they've won when they had no business doing so.  For example this past year and the year before.  They draft Bennet and Wiggins.  That gives them the ammo to trade for a superstar in his prime like Kevin Love. 

The C's have NEVER been that lucky.  What makes you think that will start now?  Your idea is nice to 'dream about' but the premise is flawed.  When you rely on luck, you're also gambling that you are going to lose out more often than not.

Since the current weighted lottery system was introduced in 1990, only THREE of the teams with the worst record in the NBA have actually gone on to win the #1 overall pick.  3/24= 12.5%.  Which conversely means that you have an 87.5% chance of losing, even when you have the best odds possible from tanking to the very bottom of the NBA standings.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft_lottery

You want to go to Tank City. You Need to go to Tank City! Tank City is absolutely the right avenue to go down. Your prize? Karl Towns? Okafor? The possibilities are endless. But one thing is for sure if you finish the worst then a top 3 pick is yours! 13 wins or less is all we need!!

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #37 on: September 26, 2014, 10:59:19 AM »

Offline gpap

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this team needs to pick a freaking direction. because what we're doing right now is worse than tanking.

at least if we were tanking we would have something to show for it. a high pick. but this game we're playing could land us just out of the playoffs - the worse spot to be in.

sure there's generally good players available throughout the 1st rnd. but if we're going to be "just ok" and get an "ok" pick out of it? why not go all out and optimize you're chance at getting a "great" pick?

Agreed 100 percent!

Right now, I have no clue what direction we're headed in either.

Not bad enough to be in the top 3 of the draft and not good enough to be in the playoffs

So......what's up??

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #38 on: September 26, 2014, 11:21:50 AM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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this team needs to pick a freaking direction. because what we're doing right now is worse than tanking.

at least if we were tanking we would have something to show for it. a high pick. but this game we're playing could land us just out of the playoffs - the worse spot to be in.

sure there's generally good players available throughout the 1st rnd. but if we're going to be "just ok" and get an "ok" pick out of it? why not go all out and optimize you're chance at getting a "great" pick?

Agreed 100 percent!

Right now, I have no clue what direction we're headed in either.

Not bad enough to be in the top 3 of the draft and not good enough to be in the playoffs

So......what's up??

The list of teams who've made the leap to contender status without a top 3 pick is seemingly endless.

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #39 on: September 26, 2014, 11:32:01 AM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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this team needs to pick a freaking direction. because what we're doing right now is worse than tanking.

at least if we were tanking we would have something to show for it. a high pick. but this game we're playing could land us just out of the playoffs - the worse spot to be in.

sure there's generally good players available throughout the 1st rnd. but if we're going to be "just ok" and get an "ok" pick out of it? why not go all out and optimize you're chance at getting a "great" pick?

Agreed 100 percent!

Right now, I have no clue what direction we're headed in either.

Not bad enough to be in the top 3 of the draft and not good enough to be in the playoffs

So......what's up??

All of this "pick a direction" stuff is reminding me of '05-'07. Personally I never understood the idea of caring to pick an absolute direction. I preferred what DA did back then, and he is doing it again.  This time his pool of young talent is collectively better even if we don't have a singular young talent as good as Al Jefferson right now. Combined with the potential of the Brooklyn picks, and Ainge really doesn't have to pick a direction by throwing Rondo away or making short-sighted moves like adding Asik and nothing else to make a playoff run. Both directions will most likely have us stuck in mediocrity for years because it breeds a culture of losing.

If there are no good/reasonable deals out there to improve this team in the short term and long term, DA won't make the deal. He doesn't care about purely sticking to the extremities of purely tanking. That much is clear from his tenure here.

Also. There is a reason our 06-07 and 13-14 teams didn't fall apart due to chemistry issues like most teams at the bottom of the barrel. It's the culture the front office brings down to the court. We may have sucked in those two years, but the players didn't have a losing mentality. Very important for young players, imo, and I'd rather have that then see the team tank.

Also, if the young players develop on this roster, we are actually good enough to make the playoffs. If Rondo comes in like pre-injury Rondo. Bradley comes back with his all-defensive standards. Smart contends for ROY. Sullinger becomes a consistent 15/10 low-post option with better efficiency than last year. Zeller plays solid positional defense for 20-25 MPG. Olynyk continues his 12/7 production from the post-all star break. Turner is a decent 6th man. Well there you go. There's your direction because that team most likely makes the playoffs because of the development of the young players. Will it happen? No one can say. That's what you get when you pin your hopes on young players who may or may not develop, which would be the case even if we had a top 3 pick on this roster. I have no issue with it, but it's a direction.

Basically the direction is "asset collection mode while maintaining a good culture". It's pretty clear they'll try to win this year, and if they are at the bottom by the deadline, we'll probably finally see real offers for Rondo. I think the front office is giving them a shot this year to see if they can push for the playoffs. The team is much, much, muuuch better balanced than last season.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 11:47:00 AM by DarkAzcura »

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #40 on: September 26, 2014, 11:32:07 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Since the current weighted lottery system was introduced in 1990, only THREE of the teams with the worst record in the NBA have actually gone on to win the #1 overall pick.  3/24= 12.5%.  Which conversely means that you have an 87.5% chance of losing, even when you have the best odds possible from tanking to the very bottom of the NBA standings.

Not to quibble, but no it doesn't mean that.  Odds stay the same regardless of past outcomes.  The team with the worst record has a 25% chance of the top pick, a 75% chance of not getting it.

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2014, 12:07:41 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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this team needs to pick a freaking direction. because what we're doing right now is worse than tanking.

at least if we were tanking we would have something to show for it. a high pick. but this game we're playing could land us just out of the playoffs - the worse spot to be in.

sure there's generally good players available throughout the 1st rnd. but if we're going to be "just ok" and get an "ok" pick out of it? why not go all out and optimize you're chance at getting a "great" pick?

Agreed 100 percent!

Right now, I have no clue what direction we're headed in either.

Not bad enough to be in the top 3 of the draft and not good enough to be in the playoffs

So......what's up??

All of this "pick a direction" stuff is reminding me of '05-'07. Personally I never understood the idea of caring to pick an absolute direction. I preferred what DA did back then, and he is doing it again.  This time his pool of young talent is collectively better even if we don't have a singular young talent as good as Al Jefferson right now. Combined with the potential of the Brooklyn picks, and Ainge really doesn't have to pick a direction by throwing Rondo away or making short-sighted moves like adding Asik and nothing else to make a playoff run. Both directions will most likely have us stuck in mediocrity for years because it breeds a culture of losing.

If there are no good/reasonable deals out there to improve this team in the short term and long term, DA won't make the deal. He doesn't care about purely sticking to the extremities of purely tanking. That much is clear from his tenure here.

Also. There is a reason our 06-07 and 13-14 teams didn't fall apart due to chemistry issues like most teams at the bottom of the barrel. It's the culture the front office brings down to the court. We may have sucked in those two years, but the players didn't have a losing mentality. Very important for young players, imo, and I'd rather have that then see the team tank.

Also, if the young players develop on this roster, we are actually good enough to make the playoffs. If Rondo comes in like pre-injury Rondo. Bradley comes back with his all-defensive standards. Smart contends for ROY. Sullinger becomes a consistent 15/10 low-post option with better efficiency than last year. Zeller plays solid positional defense for 20-25 MPG. Olynyk continues his 12/7 production from the post-all star break. Turner is a decent 6th man. Well there you go. There's your direction because that team most likely makes the playoffs because of the development of the young players. Will it happen? No one can say. That's what you get when you pin your hopes on young players who may or may not develop, which would be the case even if we had a top 3 pick on this roster. I have no issue with it, but it's a direction.

big difference between '07 and now. we have Rondo, some picks and that's it. I know this is crazy to hear but no one around the league views our young guys as anything close to what Al Jefferson was. for good reason too because there is no young player on this roster as good as Al Jefferson was at the time he was traded. the only one's viewing our young guys as valuable commodities is Celtics fans...I don't even think Danny believes these guys are valuable enough to trade. and that isn't really because they're bad either, the body of work just isn't there yet.

in '07 we could have completely blown it up, but Pierce was only getting dealt for a blockbuster return. again this might be difficult to hear but Rondo being our biggest bargaining chip right now, still is not even close to what Pierce was worth then...no where near, and I love Rondo.

but one thing that gets confused in all of this "tank" and "pick a direction" talk that I don't understand is, why is going young viewed as tanking?  if these young guys are so good wouldn't that negate the "we are tanking" theory?


Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2014, 12:22:28 PM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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this team needs to pick a freaking direction. because what we're doing right now is worse than tanking.

at least if we were tanking we would have something to show for it. a high pick. but this game we're playing could land us just out of the playoffs - the worse spot to be in.

sure there's generally good players available throughout the 1st rnd. but if we're going to be "just ok" and get an "ok" pick out of it? why not go all out and optimize you're chance at getting a "great" pick?

Agreed 100 percent!

Right now, I have no clue what direction we're headed in either.

Not bad enough to be in the top 3 of the draft and not good enough to be in the playoffs

So......what's up??

All of this "pick a direction" stuff is reminding me of '05-'07. Personally I never understood the idea of caring to pick an absolute direction. I preferred what DA did back then, and he is doing it again.  This time his pool of young talent is collectively better even if we don't have a singular young talent as good as Al Jefferson right now. Combined with the potential of the Brooklyn picks, and Ainge really doesn't have to pick a direction by throwing Rondo away or making short-sighted moves like adding Asik and nothing else to make a playoff run. Both directions will most likely have us stuck in mediocrity for years because it breeds a culture of losing.

If there are no good/reasonable deals out there to improve this team in the short term and long term, DA won't make the deal. He doesn't care about purely sticking to the extremities of purely tanking. That much is clear from his tenure here.

Also. There is a reason our 06-07 and 13-14 teams didn't fall apart due to chemistry issues like most teams at the bottom of the barrel. It's the culture the front office brings down to the court. We may have sucked in those two years, but the players didn't have a losing mentality. Very important for young players, imo, and I'd rather have that then see the team tank.

Also, if the young players develop on this roster, we are actually good enough to make the playoffs. If Rondo comes in like pre-injury Rondo. Bradley comes back with his all-defensive standards. Smart contends for ROY. Sullinger becomes a consistent 15/10 low-post option with better efficiency than last year. Zeller plays solid positional defense for 20-25 MPG. Olynyk continues his 12/7 production from the post-all star break. Turner is a decent 6th man. Well there you go. There's your direction because that team most likely makes the playoffs because of the development of the young players. Will it happen? No one can say. That's what you get when you pin your hopes on young players who may or may not develop, which would be the case even if we had a top 3 pick on this roster. I have no issue with it, but it's a direction.

big difference between '07 and now. we have Rondo, some picks and that's it. I know this is crazy to hear but no one around the league views our young guys as anything close to what Al Jefferson was. for good reason too because there is no young player on this roster as good as Al Jefferson was at the time he was traded. the only one's viewing our young guys as valuable commodities is Celtics fans...I don't even think Danny believes these guys are valuable enough to trade. and that isn't really because they're bad either, the body of work just isn't there yet.

in '07 we could have completely blown it up, but Pierce was only getting dealt for a blockbuster return. again this might be difficult to hear but Rondo being our biggest bargaining chip right now, still is not even close to what Pierce was worth then...no where near, and I love Rondo.

but one thing that gets confused in all of this "tank" and "pick a direction" talk that I don't understand is, why is going young viewed as tanking?  if these young guys are so good wouldn't that negate the "we are tanking" theory?

See what I posted in the very post you quoted:

Quote
This time his pool of young talent is collectively better even if we don't have a singular young talent as good as Al Jefferson right now.

I already said we don't have anyone like Jefferson on this team, but I completely disagree with you on the rest of the talent.

The difference is Olynyk, Sullinger, Bradley, Zeller, Turner, Young, Brooklyn picks >>> Young Rondo, Gomes, Green, Delonte, Tony, Perkins

Third year Jefferson >> rookie Smart (who knows where he will be 2 years from now)

Pierce >> Rondo

You are also completely underrating or disregarding Smart. Al Jefferson was good enough to get us KG, but other than McHale, most people around the league thought we shafted the Wolves. Most people around the league probably didn't view Jefferson as much better than Sullinger at this point in their careers. I kid you not. Like you said..only Celtic fans view our guys as that great. Regardless, he did get us KG so that point is moot. It only takes one team.

Anyway back to Smart. I have no idea how you can say we just have Rondo and picks. You do know Smart is our first blue chip prospect since Paul Pierce in terms of how he is viewed around the league, right? Rondo and Jefferson fell in the draft and had no value as rookies. Out of the starting gate, Smart is far ahead of them in terms of perceived value. He's already played in two team USA camps before even playing a minute of NBA ball! Let's give our guys some credit for once.

To your last point...I mean that was my whole point. I'm not sure what you are trying to say? I basically said that unless you really believe our young guys should have gotten us into the playoffs last season, which imo, is a ridiculous task to ask of them considering the circumstances. My point was to let this season ride out and see what happens. That's what DA is most likely doing until at least the deadline. If we are contending for the playoffs, Rondo most likely stays, and it proves the young guys are developing. If we suck again, Rondo is traded, and we are looking at another high draft pick. That's my point. There's no sense in picking an extremity of a direction at this point in time. If we make the playoffs, the team can re-evaluate next off-season and potentially make some trades with the young guys' trade value higher.

No one here can say with 100% (even 80%) certainty that this team will not make the playoffs next year. They are just as likely to be in the gutter as they are likely to be in the playoffs. That's what you get with young teams that may or may not develop. Let's see if they can do it.
« Last Edit: September 26, 2014, 01:03:38 PM by DarkAzcura »

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #43 on: September 26, 2014, 02:09:02 PM »

Offline gpap

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Right about now I am just ready for the season to start.

The offseason has come and gone with a whimper, now it's time for some actual games.

Should be interesting to gauge the state of the team after the end of the season.

Re: Tank City USA - Boston
« Reply #44 on: September 26, 2014, 02:48:39 PM »

Offline DesertDweller

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This forum is diseased!!!  all you people that are coaches for your kids teams, try forcing this tanking garbage down their throats and see how long they'll chew on it before they puke it back in your face or don't want any part of you. get out there and lose kid and someday you'll be a Boston Celtic!!!!