Author Topic: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections  (Read 10561 times)

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Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2014, 02:52:59 PM »

Offline Snakehead

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Related bit of ESPN insider-yness:

Quote
The Celtics' youth movement has me less than enthused: While Bradley is a high-level defender and an improved shooter, if he's not at his ceiling now, he's not far from it. Similarly, Sullinger seems pigeonholed as a solid backup big, but lacking the size or athleticism to grow his game anymore. Zeller and Olynyk are both finesse bigs better suited playing alongside a defensive stalwart big (which the C's don't have), and I still have reservations about how Smart's game will translate to the pro level.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11547672/ranking-league-based-25-talent-nba

Rated as the 22/30 when it comes to the quality of players under 25.

Different author, obviously.

Not sure why Sullinger's height suddenly becomes this issue (he has proven he can be effective with it as is, just needs to be more consistent and work on his stamina and effeciency.  He can at least board). 

Also funny to be down on Olynyk and Zeller because of team construction.  That has nothing to do with the actual quality of your individual players.  Olynyk could possibly be a great offensive player no matter who is next to.   And that means something.  Might hurt your trade value through production some (like perhaps could be said with Munroe in Detroit).
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 04:06:01 PM by Snakehead »
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Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2014, 03:17:38 PM »

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I don't think Capela will do well as a rookie. Too unskilled offensively and learning curve defensively to do well at PF + not big enough physically or experienced enough to play as undersized big to do well as a center.

Give him a couple of years though and I think he'll be a very good player further down the road. A Larry Sanders level talent.
Larry Sanders is all around just longer than him.
A small bit longer but those two are reasonably close.

Larry Sanders - 6 foot 11, 7-5 and 3/4 wingspan, 9-4 standing reach
Clint Capela - 6 foot 10 and a half, 7-4 wingspan, 9-2 and a half standing reach

I think Capela is plenty big enough to play the center position with that combination of height & length and elite athleticism. Needs to add some muscle over next few years (as Larry Sanders needed to when he first entered league) but that should be doable over time.

In terms of skill-set, I think Capela will likely have to play center anyway (instead of PF) due to his offensive limitations. The big key for him will be whether or not he can add a jump-shot to his game. Larry Sanders couldn't and ended up at center because of it. Serge Ibaka did and was able to stay at PF. So for now, due to offensive limitations, I think Capela projects more like a Larry Sanders type center than a Serge Ibaka type power forward.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #17 on: September 22, 2014, 03:25:40 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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I don't think Capela will do well as a rookie. Too unskilled offensively and learning curve defensively to do well at PF + not big enough physically or experienced enough to play as undersized big to do well as a center.

Give him a couple of years though and I think he'll be a very good player further down the road. A Larry Sanders level talent.
Larry Sanders is all around just longer than him.
A small bit longer but those two are reasonably close.

Larry Sanders - 6 foot 11, 7-5 and 3/4 wingspan, 9-4 standing reach
Clint Capela - 6 foot 10 and a half, 7-4 wingspan, 9-2 and a half standing reach

I think Capela is plenty big enough to play the center position with that combination of height & length and elite athleticism. Needs to add some muscle over next few years (as Larry Sanders needed to when he first entered league) but that should be doable over time.

In terms of skill-set, I think Capela will likely have to play center anyway (instead of PF) due to his offensive limitations. The big key for him will be whether or not he can add a jump-shot to his game. Larry Sanders couldn't and ended up at center because of it. Serge Ibaka did and was able to stay at PF. So for now, due to offensive limitations, I think Capela projects more like a Larry Sanders type center than a Serge Ibaka type power forward.

I disagree. The main things ibaka can do on the offenaive end is shoot jump shots, get tip ins, dunks.

Sanders on the other hand is a horrible shooter. Or else i can see him able to play the pf spot.

Capela has a decent looking jump shot and just needs more practice. Also has straight line driving capability. He can play the pf spot imo

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #18 on: September 22, 2014, 03:35:40 PM »

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Quote
The work he still needs to put in shows up when Capela stepped away from the hoop, as he only attempted 0.3 jump shots per game, connecting on only 21.4% of the very small amount of jump shots he attempted.

Played 20mpg and only attempted 0.3 jump shots? That is not someone who has any level of confidence in his jump shot. And for good reason with that FG%.

Obviously it is a career-changer for Capela if he can add a jump-shot -- and I would reassess and compare him to someone like Ibaka when/if that does happen -- but clearly Capela is a long way from achieving that. For now, I will stick with Larry Sanders as most apt comparison for a player with Capela's physical talent and skill-set.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2014, 06:47:29 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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If Marcus Smart played for Kentucky or Duke, i wonder where he would of been drafted.

I can't wait for the season to start already


The play at 9:45 is incredible.  One of the best plays i have ever seen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2xqmw8NHco
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 07:01:26 PM by triboy16f »

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2014, 08:39:07 PM »

Offline clover

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Nurkic went right before the C's picked Young, and I really would have liked them to find a way to move up a notch or two to get him instead. Oh, well.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #21 on: September 22, 2014, 09:02:14 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I think it must have not taken FIBA into account or Exum would be dead last.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #22 on: September 22, 2014, 10:15:28 PM »

Offline Future Celtics Owner

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If Marcus Smart played for Kentucky or Duke, i wonder where he would of been drafted.

I can't wait for the season to start already


The play at 9:45 is incredible.  One of the best plays i have ever seen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2xqmw8NHco
I can't wait to see Smart take his game to the next level. I just know once the doubters watch Smart dominate on both ends of the floor, they're gonna be like"Rajon who...."

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #23 on: September 22, 2014, 10:28:21 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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If Marcus Smart played for Kentucky or Duke, i wonder where he would of been drafted.

I can't wait for the season to start already


The play at 9:45 is incredible.  One of the best plays i have ever seen

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2xqmw8NHco
I can't wait to see Smart take his game to the next level. I just know once the doubters watch Smart dominate on both ends of the floor, they're gonna be like"Rajon who...."

or RR will finally bring up his game.  Danny did a good thing by drafting Smart. It's someone that is on the tail of RR/insurance for the next starting pg


Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2014, 09:54:20 AM »

Offline mgent

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I think it must have not taken FIBA into account or Exum would be dead last.
Yeah, I agree.  Even low-level scrub projects like Alexey Shved should dominate FIBA right?  Some lottery pick he is.
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Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #25 on: September 23, 2014, 12:55:36 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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That video showed the good and the bad.  I really liked the way he commanded the court, found passing lanes, knew where everyone was on the court.  All really good stuff.  It was also amazing how well he was able to stay in front of Wiggins and others.

But that shooting stroke needs some serious work.  I know it did look better at times during summer league but much like Rondo, if he can't shoot, NBA teams are going to adjust and take him out of his game.  They will just sag off and take away penetration lanes and passing lanes.

He is young and appears very determined so overall, I like what I see.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #26 on: September 23, 2014, 04:31:53 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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So based on the history of the rankings Smart has about a 70% chance of being a decent pro. Still it seems 3 guys each year are total busts as VG said being highly rated doesn't seem to matter much. Interesting data.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #27 on: September 23, 2014, 05:00:23 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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I think it must have not taken FIBA into account or Exum would be dead last.
Yeah, I agree.  Even low-level scrub projects like Alexey Shved should dominate FIBA right?  Some lottery pick he is.

You would think Exum would give a better showing in FIBA.

Re: 2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections
« Reply #28 on: September 23, 2014, 09:11:58 PM »

Offline Mazingerz

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I think it must have not taken FIBA into account or Exum would be dead last.
Yeah, I agree.  Even low-level scrub projects like Alexey Shved should dominate FIBA right?  Some lottery pick he is.

You would think Exum would give a better showing in FIBA.

Exum was a no-show during the FIBA World's. Maybe his agent told him to slow it down and not be ultra competitive? Or his skill set is really not that good? Makes you wonder.
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