2014 nba draft: Smart #1 per WARP projections

[Tr1boy]

And Capela is #2 on this espn insider article dated june 18. I find it interesting using WARP projections Smart is considered the top prospect. Some of things reasons whyhe is sound good to me. Does anyone have the full list they can put up?

http://beta.espn.go.com/nba/draft2014/insider/story/_/id/11102133/nba-draft-marcus-smart-tops-kevin-pelton-prospect-projection-rankings

1. Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Win%: .512 | Age: 20.1 | WARP projection: 3.6
Several factors propelled Smart to the top of the WARP projections. He is young for a sophomore, just 10 days older than Joel Embiid. Smart's projected steal rate is tops for any projected first-round pick, which is important because steal rate has been a strong indicator of NBA success. He is also an excellent rebounder and has been surprisingly good playing against star point guards. Players similar to Smart tend to perform better in the NBA as the professional floor typically is more open, allowing them to create off the dribble.

2. Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland
Win%: .497 | Age: 19.9 | WARP projection: 3.4

As I noted in last week's analysis of the top international prospects in the draft, which highlighted the overall strength of the group, Capela performed well both in the French Pro A league and in his team's brief stint in the EuroCup against more challenging competition. He is an excellent shot-blocker for a power forward and is arguably the best finisher in this year's draft, as reflected by his projected 54.4 percent 2-point accuracy.

[D.o.s.]

3-10 are, in order:

Nurkik
Exum
Adams
Embiid
Parker
Vonleh
Harston
Ennis


McBuckets is 13, your boy Gordon is 14, and Randle is 15. Wiggins is 19.

This is probably the part where everyone should go back and look at how these things are  measured before jumping to any conclusions about whether or not this means anything:

k, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis

[Tr1boy]

3-10 are, in order:

Nurkik
Exum
Adams
Embiid
Parker
Vonleh
Harston
Ennis


McBuckets is 13, your boy Gordon is 14, and Randle is 15. Wiggins is 19.

This is probably the part where everyone should go back and look at how these things are  measured before jumping to any conclusions about whether or not this means anything:

k, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis

+1 for putting up the list. Where does young rank ?

[Snakehead]

Just found this post from "JR".  Thanks bud. 

http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=8039190&postcount=31

You can see WARP projections for several of the last seasons.  Sorry for the formatting.  Screw you JR. 

The top few from each:

2012:

Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
1    Anthony Davis    Kentucky    .570    5.5    8.2
21    Jared Sullinger    Ohio St.    .491    3.1    0.9
35    Draymond Green    Michigan St.    .521    2.8    -1.5
34    Jae Crowder    Marquette    .509    2.7    0.9
3    Bradley Beal    Florida    .436    2.5    2.0
4    Dion Waiters    Syracuse    .456    2.2    -0.2
6    Damian Lillard    Weber St.    .486    2.2    6.1
18    Terrence Jones    Kentucky    .452    2.1    1.0
59    Marcus Denmon    Missouri    .489    2.1    -
23    John Jenkins    Vanderbilt    .461    1.9    0.6


2011

Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
22    Kenneth Faried    Morehead St.    .604    5.1    6.5
1    Kyrie Irving    Duke    .514    4.2    7.8
2    Derrick Williams    Arizona    .492    3.3    0.9
23    Nikola Mirotic    Real Madrid    .482    2.9    -
12    Alec Burks    Colorado    .464    2.7    -0.3
5    Jonas Valanciunas    Lietuvos Rytas    .446    2.7    1.9
15    Kawhi Leonard    San Diego St.    .459    2.5    5.6
10    Jimmer Fredette    Brigham Young    .502    2.4    0.3
4    Tristan Thompson    Texas    .453    2.2    1.9
24    Reggie Jackson    Boston College    .461    2.0    0.5


2010

Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
5    DeMarcus Cousins    Kentucky    .523    4.1    5.4
7    Greg Monroe    Georgetown    .495    3.3    8.3
9    Gordon Hayward    Butler    .498    3.3    2.4
11    Cole Aldrich    Kansas    .519    3.1    0.1
33    Hassan Whiteside    Marshall    .493    2.8    0.1
12    Xavier Henry    Kansas    .450    2.7    -1.6
3    Derrick Favors    Georgia Tech    .440    2.6    3.1
14    Patrick Patterson    Kentucky    .483    2.4    0.2
10    Paul George    Fresno St.    .458    2.4    6.1
1    John Wall    Kentucky    .449    2.4    4.8

2009

Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
37    DeJuan Blair    Pitt    .569    5.0    2.8
3    James Harden    Arizona State    .528    4.2    7.5
1    Blake Griffin    Oklahoma    .535    4.2    7.6
7    Stephen Curry    Davidson    .544    3.9    8.0
5    Ricky Rubio    DKV Joventut    .480    3.7    2.9
45    Nick Calathes    Florida    .490    3.1    -
18    Ty Lawson    North Carolina    .506    2.8    5.1
17    Jrue Holiday    UCLA    .448    2.8    3.8
46    Danny Green    North Carolina    .494    2.3    2.5
34    Sergio Llull    Real Madrid    .482    2.2    -


2008


Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
5    Kevin Love    UCLA    .543    4.6    8.2
2    Michael Beasley    Kansas St.    .499    3.7    0.2
21    Ryan Anderson    California    .464    2.6    6.1
34    Mario Chalmers    Kansastd>
   .489    2.2    3.1
17    Roy Hibbert    Georgetown    .475    2.1    3.7
19    J.J. Hickson    North Carolina St.    .433    2.0    1.4
10    Brook Lopez    Stanford    .439    1.9    4.9
23    Kosta Koufos    Ohio St.    .414    1.8    1.1
1    Derrick Rose    Memphis    .416    1.7    5.6
15    Robin Lopez    Stanford    .424    1.6    1.3


2007


Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
2    Kevin Durant    Texas    .480    3.7    9.4
1    Greg Oden    Ohio St.    .492    3.6    1.2
4    Mike Conley    Ohio St.    .460    2.7    3.1
17    Sean Williams    Boston College    .471    2.4    0.2
3    Al Horford    Florida    .467    2.2    4.8
8    Brandan Wright    North Carolina    .436    2.1    1.2
15    Rodney Stuckey    Eastern Washington    .466    2.1    1.7
9    Joakim Noah    Florida    .488    2.0    5.3
12    Thaddeus Young    Georgia Tech    .416    2.0    2.1
34    Nick Fazekas    Nevada    .479    2.0    0.2

(My boy Fazekas!!!!)



2006


Pick    Name    From    Win%    WARPp    WARP
4    Tyrus Thomas    Louisiana St.    .503    3.6    2.3
47    Paul Millsap    Louisiana Tech    .519    3.2    4.6
5    Shelden Williams    Duke    .524    2.7    0.2
9    Patrick O'Bryant    Bradley    .466    2.7    -0.1
21    Rajon Rondo    Kentucky    .442    2.0    6.5
20    Renaldo Balkman    South Carolina    .475    1.9    1.0
8    Rudy Gay    Connecticut    .430    1.9    2.6
14    Ronnie Brewer    Arkansas    .458    1.9    2.0
2    LaMarcus Aldridge    Texas    .450    1.8    4.6
17    Shawne Williams    Memphis    .434    1.8    0.4

[D.o.s.]

3-10 are, in order:

Nurkik
Exum
Adams
Embiid
Parker
Vonleh
Harston
Ennis


McBuckets is 13, your boy Gordon is 14, and Randle is 15. Wiggins is 19.

This is probably the part where everyone should go back and look at how these things are  measured before jumping to any conclusions about whether or not this means anything:

k, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis

+1 for putting up the list. Where does young rank ?

James Young is 23 on the list -- for comparison, he's sandwiched between Zach LeVine at 22 and Elfrid Payton at 24. T.J. Warren is 25.

Win%: .362 | Age: 18.7 | WARP projection: 0.8

Young didn't make much of an impression in the box score defensively, with a poor rebound rate for a wing and a steal rate marginally better than Stauskas'. To provide value, he will have to shoot the 3 well; he finished at just 34.9 percent last season even after an NCAA tournament hot streak.

[Tr1boy]

Interesting thing is from the list above (outside of the last few years) like 90 percent of players are still playing in the league today. 

[Snakehead]

Not surprising about Young.  He's a potential pick and you have to own that to support him.  Which I do.

We had two picks and I like the gamble on him.

[Tr1boy]

3-10 are, in order:

Nurkik
Exum
Adams
Embiid
Parker
Vonleh
Harston
Ennis


McBuckets is 13, your boy Gordon is 14, and Randle is 15. Wiggins is 19.

This is probably the part where everyone should go back and look at how these things are  measured before jumping to any conclusions about whether or not this means anything:

k, I project the wins above replacement player the player will average over his first five seasons in the NBA, adjusted so that immediate contributions are weighted more heavily. I come to this figure by combining the player's projected rookie win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) with his age (as of the end of the NCAA season). Naturally, the younger the player, the more opportunity for improvement down the road. During their first NBA seasons, younger players display more development than their older counterparts, making age a crucial part of any prospect analysis

+1 for putting up the list. Where does young rank ?

James Young is 23 on the list.

Win%: .362 | Age: 18.7 | WARP projection: 0.8

Young didn't make much of an impression in the box score defensively, with a poor rebound rate for a wing and a steal rate marginally better than Stauskas'. To provide value, he will have to shoot the 3 well; he finished at just 34.9 percent last season even after an NCAA tournament hot streak.

I can kind of see how good pickpocketing skills on the court translates into having a better career (court awareness? On both ends). But also could mean your a risk taker and lazy in terms of providing focused 1 on 1 D (like rondo in the recent few years).

Young while 23 on the list was just a youngster who really stepped up in the 2nd half last season. But per WARP projections its also too bad we might be on missing on someone special( Capela). We could of drafted him.  He has the tools to become a player similar to Ibaka.

Danny rarely drafts international prospects (contract scare?)

[Snakehead]

From my previous list, players with 3.0 WARP or higher.  Their projection then the actual


1    Anthony Davis    Kentucky        5.5    8.2
21    Jared Sullinger    Ohio St.        3.1    0.9


22    Kenneth Faried    Morehead St.       5.1    6.5
1    Kyrie Irving    Duke       4.2    7.8
2    Derrick Williams    Arizona        3.3    0.9


5    DeMarcus Cousins    Kentucky        4.1    5.4
7    Greg Monroe    Georgetown       3.3    8.3
9    Gordon Hayward    Butler       3.3    2.4
11    Cole Aldrich    Kansas        3.1    0.1


37    DeJuan Blair    Pitt      5.0    2.8
3    James Harden    Arizona State     4.2    7.5
1    Blake Griffin    Oklahoma    4.2    7.6
7    Stephen Curry    Davidson    . 3.9    8.0
5    Ricky Rubio    DKV Joventut    3.7    2.9
45    Nick Calathes    Florida     3.1    -


5    Kevin Love    UCLA    4.6    8.2
2    Michael Beasley    Kansas St.    3.7    0.2


2    Kevin Durant    Texas     3.7    9.4
1    Greg Oden    Ohio St.    3.6    1.2


4    Tyrus Thomas    Louisiana St.     3.6    2.3
47    Paul Millsap    Louisiana Tech    3.2    4.6


I like that company for the most part.

[Tr1boy]

No evan turner on the list i see. Sully was ranked high

[Snakehead]

Not a ton of players on that list, but just interesting to see the guards (Irving, Harden, Curry, Rubio, Calathes).  Calathes is an anomaly I think we can look past and Rubio did come from foreign competition.  I like Irving, Harden, and Curry of course and all three killed their projections.  And Rubio has some real skills if his overall game is so uneven.

The outright flops compared to projections are forwards to bigs (Derrick Williams, Aldrich, Blair, Beasley, Oden [injury], Thomas).

And I think we can understand Sully's WARP projection for that first year.  I think the projection does show how he has developed, even if I think you'd draft a player like Lillard over him now.

[Vermont Green]

From my previous list, players with 3.0 WARP or higher.  Their projection then the actual


1    Anthony Davis    Kentucky        5.5    8.2
21    Jared Sullinger    Ohio St.        3.1    0.9


22    Kenneth Faried    Morehead St.       5.1    6.5
1    Kyrie Irving    Duke       4.2    7.8
2    Derrick Williams    Arizona        3.3    0.9


5    DeMarcus Cousins    Kentucky        4.1    5.4
7    Greg Monroe    Georgetown       3.3    8.3
9    Gordon Hayward    Butler       3.3    2.4
11    Cole Aldrich    Kansas        3.1    0.1


37    DeJuan Blair    Pitt      5.0    2.8
3    James Harden    Arizona State     4.2    7.5
1    Blake Griffin    Oklahoma    4.2    7.6
7    Stephen Curry    Davidson    . 3.9    8.0
5    Ricky Rubio    DKV Joventut    3.7    2.9
45    Nick Calathes    Florida     3.1    -


5    Kevin Love    UCLA    4.6    8.2
2    Michael Beasley    Kansas St.    3.7    0.2


2    Kevin Durant    Texas     3.7    9.4
1    Greg Oden    Ohio St.    3.6    1.2


4    Tyrus Thomas    Louisiana St.     3.6    2.3
47    Paul Millsap    Louisiana Tech    3.2    4.6


I like that company for the most part.

I think what this list confirms is that drafting is a very inexact science.  These are the top rated 20 or so players from the last 7 years.  The best of the best based on rating.  There are at least 7 that are total busts for one reason or another.  That means that even with a top 3 pick, you have a one in three chance of picking a bust, on average.  Those are pretty bad odds for what is at stake with a top 3 draft pick.

[Who]

I don't think Capela will do well as a rookie. Too unskilled offensively and learning curve defensively to do well at PF + not big enough physically or experienced enough to play as undersized big to do well as a center.

Give him a couple of years though and I think he'll be a very good player further down the road. A Larry Sanders level talent.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I don't think Capela will do well as a rookie. Too unskilled offensively and learning curve defensively to do well at PF + not big enough physically or experienced enough to play as undersized big to do well as a center.

Give him a couple of years though and I think he'll be a very good player further down the road. A Larry Sanders level talent.

Larry Sanders is all around just longer than him.

[D.o.s.]

Related bit of ESPN insider-yness:

The Celtics' youth movement has me less than enthused: While Bradley is a high-level defender and an improved shooter, if he's not at his ceiling now, he's not far from it. Similarly, Sullinger seems pigeonholed as a solid backup big, but lacking the size or athleticism to grow his game anymore. Zeller and Olynyk are both finesse bigs better suited playing alongside a defensive stalwart big (which the C's don't have), and I still have reservations about how Smart's game will translate to the pro level.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11547672/ranking-league-based-25-talent-nba

Rated as the 22/30 when it comes to the quality of players under 25.

Different author, obviously.