Author Topic: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract  (Read 16665 times)

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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #45 on: September 17, 2014, 05:32:52 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Bradley will be the highest paid backup guard in the league after this year.

  Who's the highest paid backup now?
Our very own Marcus Thornton will be in contention this season, making 8.5 million to come off the bench. For what it's worth, he's started just 35 games over the last 2 seasons, and made over $7 mil per in the process.

He's a ways short of our very own Gerald Wallace.  Unless you just meant guards.
The original question does. There is an awfully high number of handsomely compensated Fs and Cs, because NBA tends to overpay for size.
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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #46 on: September 17, 2014, 05:41:20 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Wait, who's starting over Bradley at SG?
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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #47 on: September 17, 2014, 05:44:44 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Wait, who's starting over Bradley at SG?

Fab Melo.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #48 on: September 17, 2014, 05:45:22 PM »

Offline Lucky17

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Wait, who's starting over Bradley at SG?

Fab Melo.

I knew we'd land Melo this offseason. Ainge is a genius. Doubters, go kick rocks.
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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #49 on: September 17, 2014, 05:49:58 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year.

  I don't think this is the case. In general people seem to think that if there aren't any publicly made offers then there are no offers. This is fairly unlikely, both in Green's case and Bradley's. First of all, it's extremely unlikely that Danny would make a large offer to a player without knowing the market for him, or making an offer that's millions a year over the market value. He'd have been gone well before the KG trade if that was the case. Also, we have pretty solid indications that there were markets for those players in the price ranges that they got. In Green's case, his agent turned down a deal with the Thunder that was probably better than what he got. In Bradley's case, there were multiple threads during the season about GMs from other teams saying he'd end up getting signed for $8M a year or so.

Yes, I remember the "estimates" made by anonymous scouts or executives that Bradley would command that much, but I wouldn't call that solid evidence it would have ended up being the case. Granted, it would have only taken one team to make the offer and forcing the Celtics to match, which is why you're almost always going to overpay for any half-desirable guy out there. I suppose Danny didn't want to play hardball and go the RFA route and instead nip this in the bud, so we'll never know if that actual offer would have materialized.

Green did turn down that offer but that was before his heart condition took him out for a season. At the time it wasn't even certain Green's career wouldn't be threatened. He ended up being OK (so far, thankfully) but at the time the money spent did seem high considering the risk and the limited amount we got to see him on the court. The Celtics only had 26 games (not counting playoffs) to see him with the team and he never seemed to fully fit in.

I guess there's something to be said for paying your own guys a fair amount and earning a reputation of being a classy organization, but being the classiest organization doesn't necessarily win titles.

Let's be honest, is Bradley really going to develop into a difference-maker in this league? You guys say he's only 23, but that's not really young by NBA standards in terms of showing whether you are a player in this league or just a bench guy. I would use the age thing for a guy maybe 20, 21 years old, but not a four-year veteran.

Anyway, we're not going to be competing for awhile so the four years probably doesn't matter. The possible issue is if he continues to be hurt each year, it would really solidify his reputation as a brittle guy who can't be depended on to start in this league.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #50 on: September 17, 2014, 05:55:58 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Wait, who's starting over Bradley at SG?

Fab Melo.

   I was guessing he'd pick Young, who's expected level of play is greatly enhanced by his never having been on an nba court before.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #51 on: September 17, 2014, 07:01:25 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Wait, who's starting over Bradley at SG?

I'm assuming he thinks if Rondo sticks around we'll start Smart next to him sooner or later.

Or Fab Melo, why not?

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #52 on: September 17, 2014, 08:02:23 PM »

Offline gar

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Under this rationale, anybody who signs before the new tv deal would become a bargain because everybody's salary would go up. So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

Also, you're assuming 1) Bradley will improve over the course of the deal and 2) he will stay healthy over the course of the deal. I'm sure number 1 is a reasonably safe assumption though obviously he's not going to ever reach star levels. Health is where I get worried because his track record is not the greatest.

Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year. There's also a line of thought that you can't have too many non-star players on these 8-10 million dollar deals because it just traps you in mediocrity. You try to load up on stars first, then find role players who take discounts or will accept the mid-level.

If Bradley is worth 8 million, what is Sullinger worth? Are we going to have an entire squad of guys making 8-10 million that will never make an all-star team?

You got it. What is the long term vision? Not a team full of 8-9 mil. contracts I would think. Danny is acquiring assets and if Bradley's contract ends up being a bargain he can leverage that value. If not, it is still not so ridiculous as to be a drag with an increase sallary cap.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #53 on: September 17, 2014, 08:03:30 PM »

Offline gar

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Bradley signed a 4 year 32 million dollar deal that will see him in green between the ages of 24-27.

The supposed breakdown is:

2014-15 - 7.19M
2015-16 - 7.73M
2016-17 - 8.26M
2017-18 - 8.80M

As the article below points out this contract will end of being a bargain once the new salary cap kicks in. A cap that could see a significant increase as early as next summer.   

Keep in mind that everything (veteran minimum's, MLE's, etc.) rises with the increased cap. So a cap spike, to the 90M projection, would mean that the full MLE would start at approximately 8.3M with yearly percentage increases thereafter.

Bradley is a young player who continues to improve and is locked up for what will end up being a steal of a contract. Many critics are thinking of the 8M per year as it relates to his game at age 23 and under the previous salary cap. A cap which saw the MLE start at 5.8M. However, a better assessment would be to prognosticate how his game will improve and how the salary will compare with other players under the new CBA.

Ainge envisioned this and hit it out of the park...too bad few noticed.


Zach Lowe-
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-extensions-2014-tristan-thompson-markieff-morris-brandon-knight-alec-burks-jimmy-butler-nikola-vucevic/

Quote
The NBA is on the verge of signing a new national TV contract that will double the current deal, a windfall that will launch the salary cap into the stratosphere.

One problem: No one knows when, or how, that cap jump will happen. It’s at $63 million for this season, and teams are projecting it could leap as high as $80 million for the 2016-17 season — the first under the new TV contract. Depending on how the league and its TV partners structure the inflow of cash, there could be one or two more mini-jolts before the cap settles into a new normal around $90 million.

Grantland reported in July that the league is considering methods of pinching the onrush of money to avoid a gargantuan one-year jump in the cap level. Teams are speculating that the league might apply future TV money to the 2015-16 cap, nudging it up above the current projection of $66.5 million. A bigger than expected jump would especially impact max contracts, since they are tethered directly to the cap ceiling. The league has told teams in the last two weeks to hold their 2015-16 cap projections steady, but there is a roiling anxiousness that this may change soon — and an urgent need to know.

Any player contract locked in now, under a $63 million cap, will obviously look loads better from the team’s perspective if the cap hits $80 million in two summers. Both agents and teams understand this. Good luck hammering out an extension in this environment.

Nice discussion TP

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #54 on: September 17, 2014, 08:41:18 PM »

Offline loco_91

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I don't have much beef with AB's contract. I consider it fair if he keeps producing at his current level. He could end up derailed by injury, or he could keep improving and look like a bargain. My main concern with him is that his D appears to have regressed a bit with his larger offensive role. I hope that will reverse with Rondo back on the floor.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #55 on: September 17, 2014, 11:29:39 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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Bradley's year-by-year stats (per 36 minutes):

2010-11
11.6 PTS, 3.8 REB, 2.7 AST, 2.0 STL, 0.0 BLK, 3.66 TO, 4.4 PF, 34.3% FG, 0.0% 3PT, 50% FT

2011-12
12.7 PTS, 3.0 REB, 2.3 AST, 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK, 2.0 TO, 2.0 PF, 49.8% FG, 40.7% 3PT, 79.5% FT

2012-13
11.6 PTS, 2.8 REB, 2.6 AST, 1.6 STL, 0.5 BLK, 1.8 TO, 3.2 PF, 40.2% FG, 31.7% 3PT, 75.5% FT

2013-14
17.3 PTS, 4.4 REB, 1.6 AST, 1,2 STL, 0.2 BLK, 1.9 TO, 2.8 PF, 43.4% FG. 39.5% 3PT, 80.4% FT

Bradley's offense has clearly suffered in seasons where he's been affected by singificant injuries. 

If you take a look at his combined stats from seasons where he played in less than 70% of his games (2010-11 rookie season and 2012-13 come back from shoulder surgery) his per-36 offensive numbers were:

11.56 PTS, 12.29 FGA, 39.45% FG, 2.95 3PA, 30.53% 3PT, 1.38 FTA, 70.49% FT

If you take a look at his combined stats from seasons where he played in more than 70% of his games (2011-12 and 2013-14) his per-36 offensive numbers were:

15.36 PTS, 13.71 FGA, 45.72 FG%, 2.84 3PA, 39.76% 3P%, 2.12 FTA, 80% FT%

This all tells me that as long as AB is relatively healthy, he's been a pretty solid offensive player...despite the fact that he is more known for his defense. 

In fact, here is one interesting set of stats I'd like to bring up...

Last season there were only 7 players in the league who averaged all of the following:

* At least 3 Three-point attempts at >39%
* At least 12 Field Goal attempts at >33%
* At least 1.5 Free Throw attempts at >80%

Those 7 players were:

* Stephen Curry
* Ryan Anderson
* Kevin Durant
* Carmello Anthony
* Aaron Afflalo
* Dirk Nowitzki
* Avery Bradley

Out of those 7 players only two are 'undersized' guards, and only one has ever made an All-Defensive team (Bradley has, in fact, made two).

I'm not saying that AB is some type of elite, All-Star calibre player here.  Nor am I trying to suggest that his offensive game is as good as all the guys on that list.  All I'm saying is that I think Bradley is very much underappreciated around here, and that his skill set is more impressive than a lot of people realise.

It's not easy for a 22 year old devensive-minded player that's used to being a #4 or #5 scoring option to suddenly to get thrown in to a position where he's being asked to take on the role of a team leader and #2 scoring option on a young lottery team.  That's a lot of pressure to get dumped on a guy and a lot of added responsibility. 

It's normal for a player in that position to have their scoring numbers skyrocket because of the higher offensive responsibility, but it's very rare for that player to do exactly that while also significantly improving his shooting percentages from the field, from three AND from the free throw line.  Not only that, but he also managed to keep his turnovers down despite the significant increase in offensive responsiblity.

I think that all of this says a lot about his maturity, his work ethic and his ability to keep his composure under pressure. For a 23 year old guy in only his 4th NBA season, I think that's an impressive feat.  Unless the injury bug bites (which is a very real threat) I can't imagine him falling off next year.  I think he will only get better. 

All I know is this - if AB can continue to average 14+ PPG while shooting 44%/39%/80%, playing above average defence, and showing the same leadership and work ethic he has so far...he will have earned his contract.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #56 on: September 18, 2014, 12:01:32 AM »

Offline MBunge

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Let's be honest, is Bradley really going to develop into a difference-maker in this league? You guys say he's only 23, but that's not really young by NBA standards in terms of showing whether you are a player in this league or just a bench guy. I would use the age thing for a guy maybe 20, 21 years old, but not a four-year veteran.

When Aaron Afflalo was 23, he averaged less than 5 points and under 2 rebounds a game.

Mike

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #57 on: September 18, 2014, 12:24:51 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Let's be honest, is Bradley really going to develop into a difference-maker in this league? You guys say he's only 23, but that's not really young by NBA standards in terms of showing whether you are a player in this league or just a bench guy. I would use the age thing for a guy maybe 20, 21 years old, but not a four-year veteran.

When Aaron Afflalo was 23, he averaged less than 5 points and under 2 rebounds a game.

Mike

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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #58 on: September 18, 2014, 03:45:57 AM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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Let's be honest, is Bradley really going to develop into a difference-maker in this league? You guys say he's only 23, but that's not really young by NBA standards in terms of showing whether you are a player in this league or just a bench guy. I would use the age thing for a guy maybe 20, 21 years old, but not a four-year veteran.

When Aaron Afflalo was 23, he averaged less than 5 points and under 2 rebounds a game.

Mike

When Afflalo got his deal he had a larger body of evidence than Bradley. He had 2 seasons of being a starter where he played 82 and 69 games, as opposed to Bradley's 2 seasons with 50 and 60 games.  He also established himself as a 3-pt. threat, that element of Bradley's game really just appeared last year. Afflalo also has 3 inches on Bradley.

I don't think Bradley can be a great defensive player and not get hurt or let it decrease his offensive efficiency due to fatigue. If he's going to produce enough offense for the contract to be worthwhile, he needs to up his percentages somewhat and of course, stay healthy.

I think that Bradley will improve but he will probably also get hurt again. It seemed that his regression on D last year was due to his concern about being hurt in a contract year and focus on putting up offensive numbers for a bigger payday. He needs to refocus on D and continue to up his percentages. Can his brittle body handle both tasks? I don't know, because he's a small guy. He's not tough and strong like Tony Allen, nor is he lean and long like a Bruce Bowen. Maybe it just takes too much out of him?

I guess I'm just not willing to blindly assume because a player is 23 he will continue to improve and his numbers will naturally go up. If that were true, we'd never have a bad contract in this league for any player under 25.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2014, 03:52:39 AM »

Offline Rondo9

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Let's be honest, is Bradley really going to develop into a difference-maker in this league? You guys say he's only 23, but that's not really young by NBA standards in terms of showing whether you are a player in this league or just a bench guy. I would use the age thing for a guy maybe 20, 21 years old, but not a four-year veteran.

When Aaron Afflalo was 23, he averaged less than 5 points and under 2 rebounds a game.

Mike

When Afflalo got his deal he had a larger body of evidence than Bradley. He had 2 seasons of being a starter where he played 82 and 69 games, as opposed to Bradley's 2 seasons with 50 and 60 games.  He also established himself as a 3-pt. threat, that element of Bradley's game really just appeared last year. Afflalo also has 3 inches on Bradley.

I don't think Bradley can be a great defensive player and not get hurt or let it decrease his offensive efficiency due to fatigue. If he's going to produce enough offense for the contract to be worthwhile, he needs to up his percentages somewhat and of course, stay healthy.

I think that Bradley will improve but he will probably also get hurt again. It seemed that his regression on D last year was due to his concern about being hurt in a contract year and focus on putting up offensive numbers for a bigger payday. He needs to refocus on D and continue to up his percentages. Can his brittle body handle both tasks? I don't know, because he's a small guy. He's not tough and strong like Tony Allen, nor is he lean and long like a Bruce Bowen. Maybe it just takes too much out of him?

I guess I'm just not willing to blindly assume because a player is 23 he will continue to improve and his numbers will naturally go up. If that were true, we'd never have a bad contract in this league for any player under 25.

Brad Stevens told Bradley to focus less on pressuring opponents, presumably because he wanted Bradley to focus on offense. Bradley already has a All NBA Defense team under his belt and he's shown that he could be a good offensive and he's 23 years old not even in his prime yet. I think you're being too harsh on Bradley, sure there are players who haven't shown improvement after 23 but Bradley has improved and has the work ethic and athleticism to show for it.

He needs to stay healthy though.