Author Topic: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract  (Read 16667 times)

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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #15 on: September 16, 2014, 08:06:41 PM »

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If Bradley is worth 8 million, what is Sullinger worth? Are we going to have an entire squad of guys making 8-10 million that will never make an all-star team?

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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #16 on: September 16, 2014, 08:36:35 PM »

Offline gpap

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Under this rationale, anybody who signs before the new tv deal would become a bargain because everybody's salary would go up. So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

Also, you're assuming 1) Bradley will improve over the course of the deal and 2) he will stay healthy over the course of the deal. I'm sure number 1 is a reasonably safe assumption though obviously he's not going to ever reach star levels. Health is where I get worried because his track record is not the greatest.

Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year. There's also a line of thought that you can't have too many non-star players on these 8-10 million dollar deals because it just traps you in mediocrity. You try to load up on stars first, then find role players who take discounts or will accept the mid-level.

If Bradley is worth 8 million, what is Sullinger worth? Are we going to have an entire squad of guys making 8-10 million that will never make an all-star team?

And this was also very well said:  First you offer the big money to the number 1 and number1A tier free agents, then fill in the rest of the roster with role players. Not the other way around.

By my count right now, we have 12 shooting guards and no real legit center other than Tyler Zeller (and the jury is still out on him.)

Sorta goes back to the point I was trying to make in the other Avery Bradley thread. For the money that was spent, I feel this roster could've been more evenly assembled.

Unless of course, the goal is to tank again.



Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #17 on: September 16, 2014, 08:43:05 PM »

Offline Rondo9

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Under this rationale, anybody who signs before the new tv deal would become a bargain because everybody's salary would go up. So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

Also, you're assuming 1) Bradley will improve over the course of the deal and 2) he will stay healthy over the course of the deal. I'm sure number 1 is a reasonably safe assumption though obviously he's not going to ever reach star levels. Health is where I get worried because his track record is not the greatest.

Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year. There's also a line of thought that you can't have too many non-star players on these 8-10 million dollar deals because it just traps you in mediocrity. You try to load up on stars first, then find role players who take discounts or will accept the mid-level.

If Bradley is worth 8 million, what is Sullinger worth? Are we going to have an entire squad of guys making 8-10 million that will never make an all-star team?

And this was also very well said:  First you offer the big money to the number 1 and number1A tier free agents, then fill in the rest of the roster with role players. Not the other way around.

By my count right now, we have 12 shooting guards and no real legit center other than Tyler Zeller (and the jury is still out on him.)

Sorta goes back to the point I was trying to make in the other Avery Bradley thread. For the money that was spent, I feel this roster could've been more evenly assembled.

Unless of course, the goal is to tank again.

What could Danny do with the money he had who could spent it on Bradley is fine where he is espcially with the cap increasing

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #18 on: September 16, 2014, 09:36:10 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

That logic is actually correct. Players signed under the current CBA will look much better under the next one. Also, what player could we have signed? We have no cap room so we used our Bird rights on Bradley. That free agent you mentioned is nonexistent with the money we had available.

I guess the question then is was danny the only one working under this assumption? Contracts are not just good or bad in a vacuum, they are good relative to other deals for similar players. So on the one hand, his contract might look better in a new cba... But would also look even better if it were 6 million per year and a new cba. So if all owners are working under the same assumptions, then maybe this is the going rate for a bradley type, and he outbid by 500k or something to keep him here. In that case this is just a standard contract and a standard calculated risk of upside, projection, etc. A second scenario is that danny is the only one who could foresee the cap bump, and that belradley was league wide a 7-8 million player in the old cba, then danny got him for that amount, only to se that contract become much more galuable as the cap greatly increases. Great. The final scenario is that bradley was a league wide 4-6 million dollar player, ando only danny could foresee the cap jumps, so he locked him up unnecessarily at 8 per thinking the cap jumps would make the contract better...but not as good as 6 would have been.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #19 on: September 16, 2014, 10:12:39 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

That logic is actually correct. Players signed under the current CBA will look much better under the next one. Also, what player could we have signed? We have no cap room so we used our Bird rights on Bradley. That free agent you mentioned is nonexistent with the money we had available.

I guess the question then is was danny the only one working under this assumption? Contracts are not just good or bad in a vacuum, they are good relative to other deals for similar players. So on the one hand, his contract might look better in a new cba... But would also look even better if it were 6 million per year and a new cba. So if all owners are working under the same assumptions, then maybe this is the going rate for a bradley type, and he outbid by 500k or something to keep him here. In that case this is just a standard contract and a standard calculated risk of upside, projection, etc. A second scenario is that danny is the only one who could foresee the cap bump, and that belradley was league wide a 7-8 million player in the old cba, then danny got him for that amount, only to se that contract become much more galuable as the cap greatly increases. Great. The final scenario is that bradley was a league wide 4-6 million dollar player, ando only danny could foresee the cap jumps, so he locked him up unnecessarily at 8 per thinking the cap jumps would make the contract better...but not as good as 6 would have been.

I think a few teams operated under the umbrella of an increased cap.

Jodie Meeks 3 yrs 19M
Nick Young 4 yrs 21.5M

I'll easily take Bradley over any of these players though. So to say Bradley would be able to be had for Meeks or Young money is probably not accurate.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2014, 10:40:10 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year.
This question pops up a lot in regards to Bradley. I didn't read many rumors regarding teams that were particularly interested in signing him, which isn't to say they weren't there. I'm curious whether or not he would have been stuck in limbo like Monroe or Bledsoe. Granted, the latter is a more extreme case as far as personal valuation is concerned but there are similar questions regarding health, size, and so far, demand.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #21 on: September 16, 2014, 10:57:08 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year.
This question pops up a lot in regards to Bradley. I didn't read many rumors regarding teams that were particularly interested in signing him, which isn't to say they weren't there. I'm curious whether or not he would have been stuck in limbo like Monroe or Bledsoe. Granted, the latter is a more extreme case as far as personal valuation is concerned but there are similar questions regarding health, size, and so far, demand.

They were restricted free agents, Bradley was not.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #22 on: September 16, 2014, 11:10:19 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Under this rationale, anybody who signs before the new tv deal would become a bargain because everybody's salary would go up. So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

Also, you're assuming 1) Bradley will improve over the course of the deal and 2) he will stay healthy over the course of the deal. I'm sure number 1 is a reasonably safe assumption though obviously he's not going to ever reach star levels. Health is where I get worried because his track record is not the greatest.

Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year. There's also a line of thought that you can't have too many non-star players on these 8-10 million dollar deals because it just traps you in mediocrity. You try to load up on stars first, then find role players who take discounts or will accept the mid-level.

If Bradley is worth 8 million, what is Sullinger worth? Are we going to have an entire squad of guys making 8-10 million that will never make an all-star team?

Your point is moot because by the time Sully will be worth that money (and it is my opinion that he will be worth at least that) the Celtics will a) have an extremely young, talented crop of players on very manageable deals (think past this year's pick and the BKN picks) and b) be operating under a significantly raised cap. You sort of just toss aside the latter point as if it isn't substantial when evaluating Bradley's deal.

The point raised is, what player will be more of a bargain at $8m/yr when the hard cap is hovering around the $80m? AB's 23 with a whole lot of serious offensive potential left and has already proven he can at least stick around on a contender's bench as a perimeter defender, three-point shooter and off-ball finisher. Worst case scenario he's a fairly paid bench player. Best case scenario he's a quasi-star who can play two positions. I don't get the pessimism about his improvement. He's 23 (have I said that already?) and has taken sincere steps in preventing chronic injury. That 15-20 extra pounds of muscle should go a long way in keeping him on the court.

People keep talking about what Danny was "keeping in mind" when he signed Bradley. He knows a few things:

1) He can assemble a legitimate, affordable contender merely by continuing to draft well. If he *ever so slightly* gambled on Bradley, it isn't disastrous for our future. There's a reason why we gave up Truth/KG and took on Wallace for those picks.

2) He has a few tangible bright spots even aside from Bradley on this miserable team who will be affordable for years: JS/KO/Smart/Young on their rookie deals or team option/qualifying offer deals.

3) The cap will continue to rise.

4) The medical staff has said Bradley's injuries are not chronic ones (meaning he doesn't have a bum shoulder or bum knee, just has suffered random injuries).

5) Bradley has displayed dedication and the ability to recognize weaknesses in his game: last year three-point shooting, this year hopefully ball-handling/play-making.

What's so bad about this deal? Please somebody explain without just saying "we could've signed someone else."


Draft: 8 first rounders in next 5 years.

Cap space: $24 mil.

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Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #23 on: September 16, 2014, 11:10:52 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year.
This question pops up a lot in regards to Bradley. I didn't read many rumors regarding teams that were particularly interested in signing him, which isn't to say they weren't there. I'm curious whether or not he would have been stuck in limbo like Monroe or Bledsoe. Granted, the latter is a more extreme case as far as personal valuation is concerned but there are similar questions regarding health, size, and so far, demand.

They were restricted free agents, Bradley was not.
Uh, I'm pretty sure he was.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8589693/nba-free-agents-2013-2014

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #24 on: September 17, 2014, 12:48:41 AM »

Offline celticslove

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Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year.
This question pops up a lot in regards to Bradley. I didn't read many rumors regarding teams that were particularly interested in signing him, which isn't to say they weren't there. I'm curious whether or not he would have been stuck in limbo like Monroe or Bledsoe. Granted, the latter is a more extreme case as far as personal valuation is concerned but there are similar questions regarding health, size, and so far, demand.

They were restricted free agents, Bradley was not.
Uh, I'm pretty sure he was.

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8589693/nba-free-agents-2013-2014
yeah i'm also pretty sure he is restricted, maybe danny was just tired of chasing players he wants that he just outbid himself with bradley.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #25 on: September 17, 2014, 08:49:59 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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yeah i'm also pretty sure he is restricted, maybe danny was just tired of chasing players he wants that he just outbid himself with bradley.
Jodie Meeks got 6 million per year and Parsons/Hayward got maxed out. Perimeter players got paid this offseason across the entire league.

I think the people who still have the idea that Danny outbid himself needs to reflect the reality that the market for SG/SFs was crazy this offseason. Unless your name was Lance Stephenson and there was a reason he was the lone exception.

Now the argument that Bradley's not worth his contract I understand, but he was going to get around that size of deal even in RFA.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #26 on: September 17, 2014, 09:50:03 AM »

Offline MBunge

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So, I assume all the folks complaining about Bradley's salary were pleased as punch when TA bolted for Memphis, rather than see Danny overpay to retain him?  And you were happy to see Posey go, as well?

Good grief.  If there's any time when this discussion is silly it's now, with Lance Stephenson leaving Indy and Monroe ready to flee Detroit and Gordon all but out of Phoenix over contract issues.

Mike

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #27 on: September 17, 2014, 10:27:42 AM »

Offline gpap

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So, I assume all the folks complaining about Bradley's salary were pleased as punch when TA bolted for Memphis, rather than see Danny overpay to retain him?  And you were happy to see Posey go, as well?

Good grief.  If there's any time when this discussion is silly it's now, with Lance Stephenson leaving Indy and Monroe ready to flee Detroit and Gordon all but out of Phoenix over contract issues.

Mike

Nope. Tony Allen was a pretty good defender and showed that in the 2010 playoffs. He was a very tough defensive match up in the playoffs that year against Lebron and Kobe.

Posey not so much. He was definitely my favorite player off the bench in the 08 season, but he seemed to regress quite a bit after that.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #28 on: September 17, 2014, 10:32:29 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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So, I assume all the folks complaining about Bradley's salary were pleased as punch when TA bolted for Memphis, rather than see Danny overpay to retain him?  And you were happy to see Posey go, as well?

TA wasn't overpaid, he got like $3 million per for 3 seasons, which is why I was very unhappy that we let him go.

Posey was getting overpaid, in both dollars and years, so I was ok with Danny letting him sign with the Hornets (who almost immediately regretted it).

I don't have a major problem with Bradley's salary anyway, so I guess it's kinda moot.

Re: Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract
« Reply #29 on: September 17, 2014, 10:39:31 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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So, I assume all the folks complaining about Bradley's salary were pleased as punch when TA bolted for Memphis, rather than see Danny overpay to retain him?  And you were happy to see Posey go, as well?

TA wasn't overpaid, he got like $3 million per for 3 seasons, which is why I was very unhappy that we let him go.

Posey was getting overpaid, in both dollars and years, so I was ok with Danny letting him sign with the Hornets (who almost immediately regretted it).

I don't have a major problem with Bradley's salary anyway, so I guess it's kinda moot.

Agreed. Ainge apparently didn't want to give Tony a fourth year, which is stupid.
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