Projected salary cap and reassessing the Bradley contract

[Eddie20]

Bradley signed a 4 year 32 million dollar deal that will see him in green between the ages of 24-27.

The supposed breakdown is:

2014-15 - 7.19M
2015-16 - 7.73M
2016-17 - 8.26M
2017-18 - 8.80M

As the article below points out this contract will end of being a bargain once the new salary cap kicks in. A cap that could see a significant increase as early as next summer.   

Keep in mind that everything (veteran minimum's, MLE's, etc.) rises with the increased cap. So a cap spike, to the 90M projection, would mean that the full MLE would start at approximately 8.3M with yearly percentage increases thereafter.

Bradley is a young player who continues to improve and is locked up for what will end up being a steal of a contract. Many critics are thinking of the 8M per year as it relates to his game at age 23 and under the previous salary cap. A cap which saw the MLE start at 5.8M. However, a better assessment would be to prognosticate how his game will improve and how the salary will compare with other players under the new CBA.

Ainge envisioned this and hit it out of the park...too bad few noticed.


Zach Lowe-
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-extensions-2014-tristan-thompson-markieff-morris-brandon-knight-alec-burks-jimmy-butler-nikola-vucevic/

The NBA is on the verge of signing a new national TV contract that will double the current deal, a windfall that will launch the salary cap into the stratosphere.

One problem: No one knows when, or how, that cap jump will happen. It’s at $63 million for this season, and teams are projecting it could leap as high as $80 million for the 2016-17 season — the first under the new TV contract. Depending on how the league and its TV partners structure the inflow of cash, there could be one or two more mini-jolts before the cap settles into a new normal around $90 million.

Grantland reported in July that the league is considering methods of pinching the onrush of money to avoid a gargantuan one-year jump in the cap level. Teams are speculating that the league might apply future TV money to the 2015-16 cap, nudging it up above the current projection of $66.5 million. A bigger than expected jump would especially impact max contracts, since they are tethered directly to the cap ceiling. The league has told teams in the last two weeks to hold their 2015-16 cap projections steady, but there is a roiling anxiousness that this may change soon — and an urgent need to know.

Any player contract locked in now, under a $63 million cap, will obviously look loads better from the team’s perspective if the cap hits $80 million in two summers. Both agents and teams understand this. Good luck hammering out an extension in this environment.

[Lucky17]

Jury is still out on Bradley. If he stinks next year, it's not a good signing.

[Eddie20]

Jury is still out on Bradley. If he stinks next year, it's not a good signing.

Did he "stink" last year or the year before? I think you could make the case if he were an aging player, not one who has shown improvement every season since he's been in the league.

[Lucky17]

Jury is still out on Bradley. If he stinks next year, it's not a good signing.

Did he "stink" last year or the year before? I think you could make the case if he were an aging player, not one who has shown improvement every season since he's been in the league.

What Bradley did in the past has no real bearing on his new contract. He has to perform/produce going forward.

Health is also a major question.

[Eddie20]

Jury is still out on Bradley. If he stinks next year, it's not a good signing.

Did he "stink" last year or the year before? I think you could make the case if he were an aging player, not one who has shown improvement every season since he's been in the league.

What Bradley did in the past has no real bearing on his new contract. He has to perform/produce going forward.

Health is also a major question.

I think that should be the collective stance on Rondo.

Thinking a player will improve between the ages of 23-27 isn't a stretch. Curious as to why the pessimistic view in projecting growth. Even if he doesn't improve one iota the contract is still a good one.   Unless you think he'll regress.

[Lucky17]

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that he regresses. Or injuries derail his season.

My radical stance on this topic: let's not count chickens before they've hatched. I'm hopeful that Bradley's performance validates (or outstrips) his new contract, but I'm not prepared right now to give Ainge props for betting it will.

[mmmmm]

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that he regresses. Or injuries derail his season.

My radical stance on this topic: let's not count chickens before they've hatched. I'm hopeful that Bradley's performance validates (or outstrips) his new contract, but I'm not prepared right now to give Ainge props for betting it will.

Solid.

Your logic, of course, applies to every player on every team.

If they stink - or get injured - then their contract will suck.   Even having to eat a minimum contract means eating a million bucks.

That's a fair way to look forward to the season I guess.  Enjoy.

[Lucky17]

It's not beyond the realm of possibility that he regresses. Or injuries derail his season.

My radical stance on this topic: let's not count chickens before they've hatched. I'm hopeful that Bradley's performance validates (or outstrips) his new contract, but I'm not prepared right now to give Ainge props for betting it will.

Solid.

Your logic, of course, applies to every player on every team.

If they stink - or get injured - then their contract will suck.   Even having to eat a minimum contract means eating a million bucks.

That's a fair way to look forward to the season I guess.  Enjoy.

I know, I'm a rare breed: a pragmatist who reserves judgment until there is actual evidence to weigh. I stopped drinking Kool Aid a long time ago.

Come on in, the water's fine. Tepid, but otherwise fine.

[Csfan1984]

Bradley needs a little more improvement to make his contact look good but he is almost there. At the new cap increase  he will absolutely look like a good deal.

Off topic of AB but still on the cap. I wonder what max deals will look like at that point?  40 million per year?

[Lucky17]

Off topic of AB but still on the cap. I wonder what max deals will look like at that point?  40 million per year?

It depends on the player's tenure in the NBA.

www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

Under the current CBA, a guy with 10+ years can earn of a max contract of 35% (or so) of the cap. [There's some fine print in there, though.] So, if the "new normal" Lowe mentions really does end up looking like a $90 mil salary cap, you could see guys making in the neighborhood of $30 million a year -- if the next version of the CBA doesn't change on this particular point.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Paul George looks like even better value now, Larry Sanders possibly too.

[Future Celtics Owner]

We should have signed Avery for no more than 6mil....Then his contract would be a steal

[obnoxiousmime]

Under this rationale, anybody who signs before the new tv deal would become a bargain because everybody's salary would go up. So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

Also, you're assuming 1) Bradley will improve over the course of the deal and 2) he will stay healthy over the course of the deal. I'm sure number 1 is a reasonably safe assumption though obviously he's not going to ever reach star levels. Health is where I get worried because his track record is not the greatest.

Finally, it's another question of who are you bidding against? Like with the Green contract there wasn't much of an impression teams were clamoring for this guy at 8 mil/year. There's also a line of thought that you can't have too many non-star players on these 8-10 million dollar deals because it just traps you in mediocrity. You try to load up on stars first, then find role players who take discounts or will accept the mid-level.

If Bradley is worth 8 million, what is Sullinger worth? Are we going to have an entire squad of guys making 8-10 million that will never make an all-star team?

[D.o.s.]

Jury is still out on Bradley. If he stinks next year, it's not a good signing.

Did he "stink" last year or the year before? I think you could make the case if he were an aging player, not one who has shown improvement every season since he's been in the league.

What Bradley did in the past has no real bearing on his new contract. He has to perform/produce going forward.

Health is also a major question.

I think that should be the collective stance on Rondo.

I think it is?

[Eddie20]

So if we didn't spend the money on Bradley and say, signed a free agent instead THAT player would also be a great deal! See where the logic gets faulty here?

That logic is actually correct. Players signed under the current CBA will look much better under the next one. Also, what player could we have signed? We have no cap room so we used our Bird rights on Bradley. That free agent you mentioned is nonexistent with the money we had available.