The passing/playmaking crew of RR/MS/KO/JS, get RR 20ppg

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To be honest, I think there is close to zero chance of Rondo ever averaging 20 PPG.

Why?

Rondo's problem is that his offensive versatility (from a scoring perspective) is very limited.

His effective options are basically either:
a) Drive to the basket for a floater / layup
b) Pull up mid-range jumper

Option 'a' is not usually effective unless you're playing a team that lacks rim protection, and option 'b' is officially the most inefficient shot in the game.

He can get points via these shots, but it's not sustainable.  Not to the point where he can score at will and be a nightly 20 PPG threat. 

I think as a scorer, Rondo's ceiling tops out at maybe 15 - 17 PPG. Realistically, he'll probably be more around the 13-15 PPG mark, around the upper level of where he's been in past seasons.

I understand the rationale that now the big 3 are gone and so Rondo has more pressure on him to score, but at the same time you need to consider the fact that:

* Ray Allen left the team a couple of years ago
* KG was not the same player offensively his last two seasons in Boston
* Pierce was nice the same player offensive in his last season in Boston

In their past couple of years together, the Celtics team was one of the worst in the entire league in terms of offensive production.  It's not like they were a team full of high volume scorers, and so they never needed Rondo's production on that end of the floor.  They badly needed scoring from anybody and everybody, but Rondo never really managed to average more than around 14 PPG on a consistent basis.

Another thing people will say is that now our team is full of skilled passers, so Rondo can get more quality looks. Again, I question whether the duo of Sully and KO are more skilled passers then Pierce and KG?  I would suggest not. 

I think Boston is very much looking like a San Antonio type team - a team that won't have anybody scoring over about 17 PPG, but everybody on the court will be a threat. 

Ironically, I actually think Olynyk, Smart and Young are the only guy on this team who have the potential to one day be a 20 PPG scorer.  Maybe Evan Turner.  I don't think anybody else on this team (not Rondo, not Green, not Bradley, not Sully) has that potential.

This is a really great analysis, but let's call it the standard one...

This one has a team with Rondo not contending, with a motion/loose offense, in a contract year.

It ain't about him scoring at will - though some nights, I'm guessing 2X, he'll go for over 40.  We should probably have a poll on the # of 40, 30, 20 pt games Rondo has, rather than his average, which we all seem to agree with uptick at least slightly.

And I think if Rondo needs to pad his points rather than his assists to get the magic max contract he and his agent want, he and his agent know it would be a sure thing if his scoring average does go up, however it might get there, to 20ppg, since he doesn't and will never have to be a #1 scorer-at-will to get a max contract as long as he can do that and still keep the 10 assists.  he doesn't need to get to 11 or 12 assists as much as he needs to get to 20/10 to assure a max deal.

THAT is why he just might do it, or come closer than we think, when all is said and doneene.

He might average a quiet 20, but he might get close to 20.

It's like calling a bank shot with the money ball to win the 3pt contest:  It may be a long shot, but put Rondo in the situation, and he just might do it.

Discuss.

[there, can I write for CelticsBlog now?]

Maybe the poll is right, and I really SHOULD take a sedative before the season starts...ahem...thanks, folks!   

[mgent]

I wouldn't bet on anyone who was trying to hit a bank shot and win the 3pt contest, considering where the last rack is.

[GetLucky]

Rondo is two things that we know of: stubborn and eccentric. If he wants to help distribute and average double-digit assists, he will. (I mean he almost hit 10 last year in limited time with the team that we had guys. That's pretty amazing.) However, if Rondo wants to score 20 (nothing historically suggests it, but he is one to defy pretense) he will do everything in his power to.


That is one interesting thing about his ACL tear. I genuinely think that Rondo could've averaged 20 pre-injury if he wanted to. He was explosive, and he had tons of space to work with with the floor-spacing team we had. He scored when he wanted to, but he didn't often want to. I want to see if he can reach a point where he's trolling opposing benches again with his options or if he never recovers and becomes a ""what if" story.

One encouraging sign from last year though: defenders started to go over screens set for Rondo, unlike they had ever done in the past. Watch highlights or lowlights even, they still went over 90% of the time. This speaks to Rondo's improved jumper. (Debate it all you want, it has improved. Now it's improved to the point where defenses are playing him differently.) If he bounces back even 90% athletically and people go over screens now, he will be able to master angles and change of speed to once again be a dual threat in the P&R. I think Rondo could then average 20 if he wanted to.

I also think that Rondo was having problems because, in addition to a less explosive first step, teams were now going over screens or even aggressively hedging him. He was not used to that, as he used to have tons of space when guys went under. It causes some un-Rondo like turnovers, but anyone that knows basketball knows that there are many more ways to burn a defense if they have to respect the ball hander in the P&R. I think once Rondo begins expecting teams to go over, "get skinny," and hedge screens, he will terrorize the opposition.

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Rondo is two things that we know of: stubborn and eccentric. If he wants to help distribute and average double-digit assists, he will. (I mean he almost hit 10 last year in limited time with the team that we had guys. That's pretty amazing.) However, if Rondo wants to score 20 (nothing historically suggests it, but he is one to defy pretense) he will do everything in his power to.


That is one interesting thing about his ACL tear. I genuinely think that Rondo could've averaged 20 pre-injury if he wanted to. He was explosive, and he had tons of space to work with with the floor-spacing team we had. He scored when he wanted to, but he didn't often want to. I want to see if he can reach a point where he's trolling opposing benches again with his options or if he never recovers and becomes a ""what if" story.

One encouraging sign from last year though: defenders started to go over screens set for Rondo, unlike they had ever done in the past. Watch highlights or lowlights even, they still went over 90% of the time. This speaks to Rondo's improved jumper. (Debate it all you want, it has improved. Now it's improved to the point where defenses are playing him differently.) If he bounces back even 90% athletically and people go over screens now, he will be able to master angles and change of speed to once again be a dual threat in the P&R. I think Rondo could then average 20 if he wanted to.

I also think that Rondo was having problems because, in addition to a less explosive first step, teams were now going over screens or even aggressively hedging him. He was not used to that, as he used to have tons of space when guys went under. It causes some un-Rondo like turnovers, but anyone that knows basketball knows that there are many more ways to burn a defense if they have to respect the ball hander in the P&R. I think once Rondo begins expecting teams to go over, "get skinny," and hedge screens, he will terrorize the opposition.

TP, kindred Green soul!

Cynic that I can be, without a championship on the line and WITH a max deal on the line, call me nuts for suggesting he transform over the season into a 20/10 guy all you want, but the odds aren't that far out there.