Author Topic: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?  (Read 10500 times)

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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #45 on: September 16, 2014, 10:59:14 AM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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If Ainge does re-sign Rondo somehow it will not be because he has any unwavering belief in Rondo's ability and place as a top PG. It will be because Ainge hates losing assets. Ainge was more than willing to deal Pierce but only when a deal like the Chris Paul one came along. Eventually the Allen/Garnett thing happened and keeping Pierce became the best choice.

  Ainge was more than willing to trade Pierce, which doesn't mean he didn't believe PP was a top sf.

What I meant was he's not afraid to deal stars but only if the right deal comes along. He's never dumped a player with value just to dump them and lose as many games as possible.

D.O.S., I don't think the extra year the Celtics can offer is much leverage. Not when Melo and NYC endorsement money is waiting in the offseason. Look how Marbury used NYC and the Knicks brand to pump up his apparel line. Not that Rondo has the same entrepreneurial  spirit but the New York hype machine is ready to blow Rondo up just like Francis, Stoudemire, Marbury, and others before him.

I think that, faced with the decision Rondo will take one year less since the Knicks don't have much to trade. Or, Ainge will negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline for an expiring like Stoudemire/Bargnani, Shumpert, and a 2018 pick. That only happens if Rondo convinces the Knicks that he really wants the fifth year though.

Rondo is controlling the situation, not Danny or any of the owners. The extra fifth year is just not a big enough deal for certain players and situations.

You can't sign and trade for a five year deal anymore.

Doing some back of the envelope math, and assuming the cap doesn't go up next season, the Celtics could offer Rondo 5 years $18.9 million with a 7.5% raise, so it'd be:
18.9
20.3
21.6
22.9
24.2

If he was S&T'd to the Knicks, he'd have a four year deal at a 4.5% raise and they'd only be able to offer him about $15.7 million a year, I think. That's not an insignificant amount of money lost:
$15.7
$16.8
$17.9
$19.0

Hmm, I didn't realize the difference was so great. How come with Bosh, Melo, Howard, and those other stars the difference in contract offers we are seeing seem smaller? 108 for 5 versus 69 for 4? That's a difference of like 39 million!

For Howard, the difference was only 31 million:

Howard, for one, rejected the Lakers' five-year, $118 million offer in favor of a four-year, $87.6 million deal from the Rockets last year.


And for Melo, the difference was around 33 million.

The difference in Rondo's deal should be less than their contracts were since he makes less than they do/did. Still, you're right it wouldn't be insignificant. I thought it would be around 20 million or so.

I think it'd be enough to convince him to stay, but do the Celtics even want him at that price? Why even pay anybody that much when you're rebuilding? Why draft Smart?

If it's really going to end up being about money, what's stopping Rondo from making his decision now and giving a "wink, wink" to Ainge so we can start making solid plans for the future? This whole situation is so frustrating. Is anything that happens on the court this season going to be more important than that extra max year we can give him? Even if the team plays better than expected it's not like they're going to be gangbusters this year and Rondo should know that.

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #46 on: September 16, 2014, 11:12:36 AM »

Offline Endless Paradise

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If Ainge does re-sign Rondo somehow it will not be because he has any unwavering belief in Rondo's ability and place as a top PG. It will be because Ainge hates losing assets. Ainge was more than willing to deal Pierce but only when a deal like the Chris Paul one came along. Eventually the Allen/Garnett thing happened and keeping Pierce became the best choice.

  Ainge was more than willing to trade Pierce, which doesn't mean he didn't believe PP was a top sf.

What I meant was he's not afraid to deal stars but only if the right deal comes along. He's never dumped a player with value just to dump them and lose as many games as possible.

D.O.S., I don't think the extra year the Celtics can offer is much leverage. Not when Melo and NYC endorsement money is waiting in the offseason. Look how Marbury used NYC and the Knicks brand to pump up his apparel line. Not that Rondo has the same entrepreneurial  spirit but the New York hype machine is ready to blow Rondo up just like Francis, Stoudemire, Marbury, and others before him.

I think that, faced with the decision Rondo will take one year less since the Knicks don't have much to trade. Or, Ainge will negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline for an expiring like Stoudemire/Bargnani, Shumpert, and a 2018 pick. That only happens if Rondo convinces the Knicks that he really wants the fifth year though.

Rondo is controlling the situation, not Danny or any of the owners. The extra fifth year is just not a big enough deal for certain players and situations.

You can't sign and trade for a five year deal anymore.

Doing some back of the envelope math, and assuming the cap doesn't go up next season, the Celtics could offer Rondo 5 years $18.9 million with a 7.5% raise, so it'd be:
18.9
20.3
21.6
22.9
24.2

If he was S&T'd to the Knicks, he'd have a four year deal at a 4.5% raise and they'd only be able to offer him about $15.7 million a year, I think. That's not an insignificant amount of money lost:
$15.7
$16.8
$17.9
$19.0

Hmm, I didn't realize the difference was so great. How come with Bosh, Melo, Howard, and those other stars the difference in contract offers we are seeing seem smaller? 108 for 5 versus 69 for 4? That's a difference of like 39 million!

It's affected by the years you've played in the NBA.

Quote
If it's really going to end up being about money, what's stopping Rondo from making his decision now and giving a "wink, wink" to Ainge so we can start making solid plans for the future? This whole situation is so frustrating. Is anything that happens on the court this season going to be more important than that extra max year we can give him? Even if the team plays better than expected it's not like they're going to be gangbusters this year and Rondo should know that.

Well, it's more than likely not going to be simply about money.  I'd bet money that neither Rondo nor Ainge are ready to commit just yet to re-signing him.

Rondo may not feel like being the big-money star on a lottery-dwelling team; he might feel differently if Ainge is able to pull off trades and signings that could return the Celtics to relevancy in the short term.  Conversely, Ainge may not want to invest big money on a 28-year-old Rondo returning from an ACL tear; he might also feel differently if he's able to transform the Celtics into a more competitive team in the short term.

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2014, 11:17:26 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Another reason why those numbers look larger than the other examples is that they reflect the  numbers for a sign and trade, rather than if Rondo signed with another team as a free agent (ala Dwight).

That said, that math is part of the reason why I wouldn't give him a max deal if I were the Celtics.  ;D
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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2014, 03:54:48 PM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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Another reason why those numbers look larger than the other examples is that they reflect the  numbers for a sign and trade, rather than if Rondo signed with another team as a free agent (ala Dwight).

That said, that math is part of the reason why I wouldn't give him a max deal if I were the Celtics.  ;D

That makes more sense then. OK, so without the sign-and-trade, Rondo can decide "I want the super max but I don't want it here" and ask for trade but the Celtics don't need to oblige him? That would definitely put the leverage back in the Celtics' hands IF Rondo is determined to make the most possible money. However, if Rondo decides the roughly $30 million dollar difference (some of which is recouped in a theoretical next contract) is not significant enough then he could bolt. I can really see it happening if that is the scenario, because Rondo could make at least some of that up by being in NYC. Think of the publicity he would get by going there, as opposed to the deadness at TD Banknorth Garden right now.

EDIT: I forgot the difference would be closer to 30 million, not 20. That definitely is a lot, but I wouldn't be shocked if Rondo left it on the table. I wonder what his agent would advise? The thing is, nobody is talking about him anymore. If the Celtics continue to suck, he'll fade into oblivion during his prime years. Are the extra millions worth it?

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2014, 04:02:00 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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It's a big part of why you don't need to be worried about anything to do with Rondo and free agency. Players are going to hit free agency instead of signing extensions and/or demanding sign and trades.

I'm a little too busy to look it up right now, but does anyone know if the Knicks will have the space to offer Rondo a max deal (i.e. 30% of the cap?)
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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #50 on: September 16, 2014, 04:13:42 PM »

Offline boscel33

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Interesting question.  In his current state, he is probably top ten to twelve if not higher for PG's, so his value is pretty high right now.

If he comes back to right before the knee injury, you're arguably looking at top three to five PG.

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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #51 on: September 16, 2014, 04:28:57 PM »

Offline Moranis

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then you sign him to a 4 yr, 60 million contract and be happy.
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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #52 on: September 16, 2014, 05:36:15 PM »

Offline zimbo

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If Ainge does re-sign Rondo somehow it will not be because he has any unwavering belief in Rondo's ability and place as a top PG. It will be because Ainge hates losing assets. Ainge was more than willing to deal Pierce but only when a deal like the Chris Paul one came along. Eventually the Allen/Garnett thing happened and keeping Pierce became the best choice.

  Ainge was more than willing to trade Pierce, which doesn't mean he didn't believe PP was a top sf.

What I meant was he's not afraid to deal stars but only if the right deal comes along. He's never dumped a player with value just to dump them and lose as many games as possible.

D.O.S., I don't think the extra year the Celtics can offer is much leverage. Not when Melo and NYC endorsement money is waiting in the offseason. Look how Marbury used NYC and the Knicks brand to pump up his apparel line. Not that Rondo has the same entrepreneurial  spirit but the New York hype machine is ready to blow Rondo up just like Francis, Stoudemire, Marbury, and others before him.

I think that, faced with the decision Rondo will take one year less since the Knicks don't have much to trade. Or, Ainge will negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline for an expiring like Stoudemire/Bargnani, Shumpert, and a 2018 pick. That only happens if Rondo convinces the Knicks that he really wants the fifth year though.

Rondo is controlling the situation, not Danny or any of the owners. The extra fifth year is just not a big enough deal for certain players and situations.

You can't sign and trade for a five year deal anymore.

Doing some back of the envelope math, and assuming the cap doesn't go up next season, the Celtics could offer Rondo 5 years $18.9 million with a 7.5% raise, so it'd be:
18.9
20.3
21.6
22.9
24.2

If he was S&T'd to the Knicks, he'd have a four year deal at a 4.5% raise and they'd only be able to offer him about $15.7 million a year, I think. That's not an insignificant amount of money lost:
$15.7
$16.8
$17.9
$19.0

Maybe I am misinterpreting your post, but it wouldn't be a S&T if he was traded to Knicks before the deadline. The Knicks would have his Bird's Rights and could offer him a 5-year deal.

« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 05:54:12 PM by zimbo »

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #53 on: September 16, 2014, 05:39:43 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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That's correct. I took mime's post, specifically 'Ainge Will Negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline' to mean it would be an S&T (or, more specifically, an extend and trade).

Would the Knicks trade for Rondo with no guarantee of an extension, though? Especially since they're so devoid of assets right now that they're really boned if he walks?
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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #54 on: September 16, 2014, 05:44:24 PM »

Offline zimbo

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That's correct. I took mime's post, specifically 'Ainge Will Negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline' to mean it would be an S&T (or, more specifically, an extend and trade).

Would the Knicks trade for Rondo with no guarantee of an extension, though? Especially since they're so devoid of assets right now that they're really boned if he walks?

Gotcha. No, I think they would need some assurance if they were to trade assets for him.

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #55 on: September 17, 2014, 09:05:24 PM »

Offline mbsnmisc

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If Ainge does re-sign Rondo somehow it will not be because he has any unwavering belief in Rondo's ability and place as a top PG. It will be because Ainge hates losing assets. Ainge was more than willing to deal Pierce but only when a deal like the Chris Paul one came along. Eventually the Allen/Garnett thing happened and keeping Pierce became the best choice.

  Ainge was more than willing to trade Pierce, which doesn't mean he didn't believe PP was a top sf.

What I meant was he's not afraid to deal stars but only if the right deal comes along. He's never dumped a player with value just to dump them and lose as many games as possible.

D.O.S., I don't think the extra year the Celtics can offer is much leverage. Not when Melo and NYC endorsement money is waiting in the offseason. Look how Marbury used NYC and the Knicks brand to pump up his apparel line. Not that Rondo has the same entrepreneurial  spirit but the New York hype machine is ready to blow Rondo up just like Francis, Stoudemire, Marbury, and others before him.

I think that, faced with the decision Rondo will take one year less since the Knicks don't have much to trade. Or, Ainge will negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline for an expiring like Stoudemire/Bargnani, Shumpert, and a 2018 pick. That only happens if Rondo convinces the Knicks that he really wants the fifth year though.

Rondo is controlling the situation, not Danny or any of the owners. The extra fifth year is just not a big enough deal for certain players and situations.

You can't sign and trade for a five year deal anymore.

Doing some back of the envelope math, and assuming the cap doesn't go up next season, the Celtics could offer Rondo 5 years $18.9 million with a 7.5% raise, so it'd be:
18.9
20.3
21.6
22.9
24.2

If he was S&T'd to the Knicks, he'd have a four year deal at a 4.5% raise and they'd only be able to offer him about $15.7 million a year, I think. That's not an insignificant amount of money lost:
$15.7
$16.8
$17.9
$19.0
 


If those numbers are accurate, he would have to make an assload of extra endorsement money to break even. Rondo is a smart cookie, if he signed with a Chinese shoe company, it is because he wanted to and it was the best deal for him. I know we are comparing apples to refrigerators but the 2 highest paid endorsers in the NBA play in Cleveland and OKC.

I do not know how legacy plays with any athlete, in the end, they have a short window and I do not blame any of them for grabbing the ducats. A no trade clause might be the difference between seeing RR retire in Celtic green, or bounce around the way PP has at the end of his career. A resigned RR gives The C's a legit chance to sign another top player. If he is gone, we have to hope MS, or JY, or some future pick becomes "that guy".

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #56 on: September 18, 2014, 12:30:45 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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The numbers are estimates because we don't actually know what the salary cap will be for the 2015 season yet, but the relationship between the two should be constant. Remember, the owners went into the lockout determined to squash the Carmelo Anthony method of choosing a new team, and they did that.
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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #57 on: September 18, 2014, 01:12:15 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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That even higher salary cap is such a game changer. Nearly every contract signed before it will look like a deal, or at worst market value.

Which just tells you how stupid Detroit has been (not to go on a tangent or anything). Yeah maybe it's an overpay today, but wait and see what retaining a max 2012 rookie is going to cost.

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Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #58 on: September 18, 2014, 03:09:29 AM »

Offline obnoxiousmime

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That's correct. I took mime's post, specifically 'Ainge Will Negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline' to mean it would be an S&T (or, more specifically, an extend and trade).

Would the Knicks trade for Rondo with no guarantee of an extension, though? Especially since they're so devoid of assets right now that they're really boned if he walks?

Gotcha. No, I think they would need some assurance if they were to trade assets for him.

They could get a wink-wink assurance through back channels. Love is not signing an extension yet, is he?

But yeah apparantly I was wrong in assuming S+T was a realistic option. If that's truly what Rondo would get in a S+T then it's better if he goes there as a FA. He could also do a one-year deal and take advantage of the cap bonanza that's expected in 2016. At that time he'd be 30 so he could still realistically command a nice 5-year deal, provided he plays up to snuff.

Re: What if Rondo completely reestablishes his value?
« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2014, 06:22:17 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I do not think Rondo is a max player even if he establishes his value back where it was folks and I am a supporter.