If Ainge does re-sign Rondo somehow it will not be because he has any unwavering belief in Rondo's ability and place as a top PG. It will be because Ainge hates losing assets. Ainge was more than willing to deal Pierce but only when a deal like the Chris Paul one came along. Eventually the Allen/Garnett thing happened and keeping Pierce became the best choice.
Ainge was more than willing to trade Pierce, which doesn't mean he didn't believe PP was a top sf.
What I meant was he's not afraid to deal stars but only if the right deal comes along. He's never dumped a player with value just to dump them and lose as many games as possible.
D.O.S., I don't think the extra year the Celtics can offer is much leverage. Not when Melo and NYC endorsement money is waiting in the offseason. Look how Marbury used NYC and the Knicks brand to pump up his apparel line. Not that Rondo has the same entrepreneurial spirit but the New York hype machine is ready to blow Rondo up just like Francis, Stoudemire, Marbury, and others before him.
I think that, faced with the decision Rondo will take one year less since the Knicks don't have much to trade. Or, Ainge will negotiate with Rondo to make a deal before the trade deadline for an expiring like Stoudemire/Bargnani, Shumpert, and a 2018 pick. That only happens if Rondo convinces the Knicks that he really wants the fifth year though.
Rondo is controlling the situation, not Danny or any of the owners. The extra fifth year is just not a big enough deal for certain players and situations.
You can't sign and trade for a five year deal anymore.
Doing some back of the envelope math, and assuming the cap doesn't go up next season, the Celtics could offer Rondo 5 years $18.9 million with a 7.5% raise, so it'd be:
18.9
20.3
21.6
22.9
24.2
If he was S&T'd to the Knicks, he'd have a four year deal at a 4.5% raise and they'd only be able to offer him about $15.7 million a year, I think. That's not an insignificant amount of money lost:
$15.7
$16.8
$17.9
$19.0
Hmm, I didn't realize the difference was so great. How come with Bosh, Melo, Howard, and those other stars the difference in contract offers we are seeing seem smaller? 108 for 5 versus 69 for 4? That's a difference of like 39 million!
For Howard, the difference was only 31 million:
Howard, for one, rejected the Lakers' five-year, $118 million offer in favor of a four-year, $87.6 million deal from the Rockets last year. And for Melo, the difference was around 33 million.
The difference in Rondo's deal should be less than their contracts were since he makes less than they do/did. Still, you're right it wouldn't be insignificant. I thought it would be around 20 million or so.
I think it'd be enough to convince him to stay, but do the Celtics even want him at that price? Why even pay anybody that much when you're rebuilding? Why draft Smart?
If it's really going to end up being about money, what's stopping Rondo from making his decision now and giving a "wink, wink" to Ainge so we can start making solid plans for the future? This whole situation is so frustrating. Is anything that happens on the court this season going to be more important than that extra max year we can give him? Even if the team plays better than expected it's not like they're going to be gangbusters this year and Rondo should know that.