Author Topic: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??  (Read 41520 times)

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Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #135 on: September 17, 2014, 05:24:19 PM »

Offline DarkAzcura

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Ryan Anderson is basically a seven foot tall high volume shooting guard.

Not a good thing, not a bad thing, but that's more or less what he is.

Exactly, which is something Olynyk projects not to be. That's why I didn't get the comparison or even hope for him to reach that level. I already think Oly is more diverse so I couldn't care less if he reaches Anderson's "level" or not.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #136 on: September 17, 2014, 07:01:33 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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Ryan Anderson is basically a seven foot tall high volume shooting guard.

Not a good thing, not a bad thing, but that's more or less what he is.

Exactly, which is something Olynyk projects not to be. That's why I didn't get the comparison or even hope for him to reach that level. I already think Oly is more diverse so I couldn't care less if he reaches Anderson's "level" or not.

+1
olynyk is a better passer, much better ball handler, and is more efficient around the rim.
kelly could be a dynamic offensive player in this league, something anderson will never be.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #137 on: September 17, 2014, 07:48:28 PM »

Offline chambers

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Fine I'll give into the Giannis hype. He's the next Pippin, and will lead the Bucks to multiple NBA titles. Danny once again screwed up a draft, will someone please fire him and trade Rondo while you're at it.

You're missing the point.
No one's saying Giannis is going to be Durant, but he has the most potential to be Durant.
Olynyk was a good, solid pick at #12 and he had (in my opinion) a good, solid first year for a 13th pick.
Ainge can't be criticized for not taking a 17/18 year old kid without much exposure and Olynyk was a solid pick. 99% of the replies to this thread agree that Olynyk was a good to very good pick at 13.
Had Danny gambled on Giannis though, the future of this Celtics team would be looking very interesting with a potential franchise player galloping up and down the court with Marcus Smart, rather than a safer, *fingers crossed* Ryan Anderson type prospect.

I think it would be common sense to say that the Timberwolves would have thought much longer and much harder about a potential Celtics trade package that included Jarred Sullinger and Giannis vs a Kelly Olynyk package. Fair to say?

No that's not fair to say. Flip wanted KO. Everyone knows that is who Flip liked on the Celtics if anybody at all. Flip, in the end, had his eyes on a top 3 pick as the main center piece. GA wouldn't have changed that.

And this thread (not speaking specifically to you here chambers) reminds me of the whole "grass is greener on the other side" theory. Somehow it is ok for people to say GA has Durant potential even though his shot will never be anywhere close to as good, but on the other side it is laughable to compare KO to Dirk at all even though their skill sets are similar regardless of athleticism (not like Dirk was earth shattering in this category either anyway). Weird hypocrisy/contradictions in this thread.

I see where you're coming from. I'm not sure if Flip wanted KO, but if he wanted a top 3 pick as you said yourself, Giannis is considered much closer to top 3 pick value than Kelly Olynyk.

Do you agree if the draft were done again that Giannis would go ahead of Olynyk? If so, why is that? Why does Giannis go to the top 3 and Olynyk stays where he was picked or moves up or down slightly?

It's not a hypocrisy, it's a truthful statement that Giannis is considered to have franchise player potential (which may or may not be unlocked), Kelly Olynyk does not.

It's not fair to criticize Ainge for taking Olynyk over Giannis though, not by an reasonable extent.

  What would you put the odds of GA becoming a franchise player at? 1 in 2? 1 in 5? 1 in 100?

 1 in 50?
Whatever it is, it's more than Olynyk.

Here's the catch...
Do you take Olynyk turning into Ryan Anderson 1 in 20 or Giannis becoming a top 10 NBA player at 1 in 50?

I don't know why you keep bringing up Ryan Anderson, though. Ryan Anderson in his career takes 50+% of his FGA from 3PT land. One of his seasons 65% of his FGA came from 3PT land. That's crazy stuff (good or bad, you be the judge). This is not Kelly Olynyk's game and is the reason why comparing him to Dirk is a much better comparison than Anderson even if you may think it is crazy to say. We aren't talking about level of performance here. I'm just talking about style, and Kelly Olynyk and Ryan Anderson are no where near each other in style. Ryan Anderson is basically non-existent from 3-23 feet for most of his career. He's finally stepped in and started taking more shots from 16-23 feet, but he's very limited. Olynyk has already shown more diversity and willingness to play all around the floor than Anderson ever has.

Olynyk will never be the kind of guy to shoot over 50% of his attempts from 3PT land. He's always going to be the kind of guy who steps out to the 3PT line occasionally (20-25% 3PAr) who tries to mix it up in-between. He is already a more versatile scorer than Ryan Anderson. He's equal or better at rebounding. Kelly's already a better passer. I doubt Olynyk is worse on defense right now either. If we are talking about Kelly becoming the level of player Ryan Anderson is? Honestly I'm not worried about that. You are completely selling Olynyk short by giving him a 1/20 chance of matching Ryan Anderson who is completely one dimensional. Olynyk is far more multi-skilled already.

Olynyk took 40% of his FGA at the rim and had a 65% FG in that area. Anderson in his rookie year also took 40% of his FGA at the rim but had a 43% FG there. The guy had to substantially drop his at rim FGA over the course of his career to bring up his FG% there because his finishing ability is not that great. I mean even this past season Anderson took 20% of his FGA at the rim but only finished at a 53% rate. That is really below average for a big man in that area. That's why he falls back all the way to the 3PT line while Olynyk can mix it up anywhere on the court.

Even if Olynyk never reaches 20 PPG like Anderson did this past season, I'd still prefer Olynyk on my team because he scores in more ways and does more than just score in general.

Ryan Anderson is irrelevant, people are using him (or at least I did) as an example of a solid starting/rotation NBA big man with mediocre/average athleticism and decent IQ who can shoot- something which Kelly Olynyk projects to be if all goes well.
A player who's ceiling will probably never be an All Star but could surprise us and could be well worth his position taken in the draft.

Anyway I don't care that we took Olynyk and I don't think he's a bust- I've defended him.... so leave me out of it lol.
I just pointed out the fact that if the draft were done again, the consensus is that Giannis goes top 3 (or higher than Olynyk). Giannis ain't no stiff, so don't burn Giannis at the sake of defending Olynyk because it taints so otherwise reasonable argument about how good Olynyk is/could be.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2014, 07:56:36 PM by chambers »
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quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #138 on: September 18, 2014, 11:20:10 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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I don't get that GiaGiannis would would a top 3 player if the draft was done over. In no particular order I have the following players ahead of the Greek freak after one year

Michael Carter-Williams
Victor Oladipo
Nerlens Noel
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Gorgui Dieng

Then I would have a group after that that Antetokuonmbo would be a part of where he could go anywhere from 1st to last in that group depending on the GM:

Mason Plumlee
Kelly Olynyk
Giannis Antetokounmbo
Steven Adams

The Greek Freak showed flashes but so did Plumlee, KO and Adams. It could be argued that the other players in that group showed much more development from the start of the season to the end than GA and that their growth is more likely because of their high BBIQ's.

I don't see the Greek Freak as a given to become something special and I had to see him play at least 8 full games last year.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #139 on: September 18, 2014, 11:24:52 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I don't think Hardaway goes that high Nick. One dimensional shooters like him aren't going to go ahead of size and potential. He might slide up 5-10 spots or so, but not more than that.

I definitely agree with the rest of your top group.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #140 on: September 18, 2014, 11:33:37 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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I don't think Hardaway goes that high Nick. One dimensional shooters like him aren't going to go ahead of size and potential. He might slide up 5-10 spots or so, but not more than that.

I definitely agree with the rest of your top group.
I was a little torn between putting Hardaway there in that group or Plumlee. I think Hardaway will be a bit more than just a one dimensional shooter. It was definitely a role he was used in and excelled at but I think he might have more than that in him. New system this year with a new coach. We will see. But the kid can shoot. That's for sure.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #141 on: September 18, 2014, 12:38:36 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I concur with Fafnir -- I'd drop Hardaway slightly -- top end of your next 'tier'.

And otherwise agree with your general groupings.

I tend to think that since Nerlens looked demonstrably healthy in Summer League that if the draft were redone today he might leap back into that #1 spot that he had a firm lock on before his injury.

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Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #142 on: September 18, 2014, 12:44:17 PM »

Offline shrinkage36

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Many people on here seems to think KO is one of the best young prospects our team have, and some even made the ridicules comparison with Dirk Nowitzki.  To me this player hasn't showed any any part of his game that stood out to me, while having many glaring weaknesses on defense and rebounding.  3pt shot is what many considers to be his best attribute but he shot 35% while making only .6 per game.  Can someone please help me understand the hype and how KO is different from a below average player like Andrea Bargnani?
I agree with this, and I'll just say let's wait and see. Can we please give a person 3 years at minimum to decide if he's a bust or not?
can you just hold on first?  He has played only one season in the nba thus far.  What are you expecting exactly??

Even guys who are considered top center/pf prospects can have issues adapting to the nba pace in their first two seasons.

KO since last season has ended, has already shown us an improved body at the SL. He is more comfortable attempting moves ( step back jump shots) that is not going to be easy to defend .  His defense will get better but we can't expect him to be the next ibaka. He doesn't have the natural tools to be that good. However to be at least as decent as a Tiago Splitter (positioning, high iq, boxing out consistently) is not unrealistic imo.

As long as he keeps improving year by year,  KO will be fine. I expect him to max out at 17 ppg, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal eventually

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #143 on: September 18, 2014, 04:29:34 PM »

Offline mgent

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I don't get that GiaGiannis would would a top 3 player if the draft was done over. In no particular order I have the following players ahead of the Greek freak after one year

Michael Carter-Williams
Victor Oladipo
Nerlens Noel
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Gorgui Dieng

Then I would have a group after that that Antetokuonmbo would be a part of where he could go anywhere from 1st to last in that group depending on the GM:

Mason Plumlee
Kelly Olynyk
Giannis Antetokounmbo
Steven Adams

The Greek Freak showed flashes but so did Plumlee, KO and Adams. It could be argued that the other players in that group showed much more development from the start of the season to the end than GA and that their growth is more likely because of their high BBIQ's.

I don't see the Greek Freak as a given to become something special and I had to see him play at least 8 full games last year.
Plumlee over GF all day.

Also, I personally have no problem whatsoever with Hardaway in that first group.  He belongs there, a tier above the other guys, especially if Dieng is up there.  He doesn't have the passing/rebounding/all-aroundness that Oladipo and MCW have, but I think he'll probably end up the best scorer of the 3 (if he's not already, he's kinda killing them in eFG%).  Starter minutes would really help him, he seems to be one of those confidence guys.
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Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #144 on: September 18, 2014, 04:32:24 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Also, I personally have no problem whatsoever with Hardaway in that first group.  He belongs there, a tier above the other guys, especially if Dieng is up there.  He doesn't have the passing/rebounding/all-aroundness that Oladipo and MCW have, but I think he'll probably end up the best scorer of the 3 (if he's not already, he's kinda killing them in eFG%).
Hard not to kill them on eFG% when over 50% of your shots are 3s, mostly spot ups.

He just doesn't do anything else right now, worrisome for his future as anything more than an Eddie House type.

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #145 on: September 18, 2014, 04:50:47 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Can we look back and say it was a weak draft?

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #146 on: September 18, 2014, 06:15:47 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I don't get that GiaGiannis would would a top 3 player if the draft was done over. In no particular order I have the following players ahead of the Greek freak after one year

I think he's pretty clearly a player that some people would take in the top three.  Would I?  I really haven't bothered to think about it.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2014, 07:05:26 PM by LooseCannon »
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Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #147 on: September 18, 2014, 06:19:04 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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I don't get that GiaGiannis would would a top 3 player if the draft was done over. In no particular order I have the following players ahead of the Greek freak after one year

Michael Carter-Williams
Victor Oladipo
Nerlens Noel
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Gorgui Dieng

Then I would have a group after that that Antetokuonmbo would be a part of where he could go anywhere from 1st to last in that group depending on the GM:

Mason Plumlee
Kelly Olynyk
Giannis Antetokounmbo
Steven Adams

The Greek Freak showed flashes but so did Plumlee, KO and Adams. It could be argued that the other players in that group showed much more development from the start of the season to the end than GA and that their growth is more likely because of their high BBIQ's.

I don't see the Greek Freak as a given to become something special and I had to see him play at least 8 full games last year.

Question - how can you put Noel in that first five when he has yet to play a game in the NBA?  For that reason alone, the Greek Freak should be in the first 5, imo. 

Also, I saw a bit of Plumlee play, and he wasn't impressive to me at all, and he's extremely foul prone.  I really didn't see a lot of, if any, skill from him.  Have I missed something, as usual ;D?

Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #148 on: September 18, 2014, 07:05:10 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Question - how can you put Noel in that first five when he has yet to play a game in the NBA?  For that reason alone, the Greek Freak should be in the first 5, imo. 

Who you would take in a re-draft is still based mainly on potential.
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Re: Kelly Olynyk is a Bust!! Where is all the hype coming from??
« Reply #149 on: September 18, 2014, 07:47:37 PM »

Offline DesertDweller

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You forgot the part where Ray Ray winds up getting his jersey retired in Milwaukee after hitting a game winning three over... uh... we need another GUARANTEED SUPERSTAR that Ainge missed.

  Of course he hits the game winner in game 6, and by the time he finishes replaying the moment in his mind he realizes that game 7 has come and gone.

  I'd guess the other guaranteed star Danny missed out on was James Harden, who he should have insisted on in that Perk trade, or even KD, since Danny didn't tank hard enough to get him that year.

I really don't have the time to research but please tell me the other 22,000+ posts weren't about would'a, could'a, should'a???