Poll

Why haven't the Celtics drafted any/many good centers under Ainge?

They have, his name is Kendrick Perkins/Jefferson or Player X should be considered a center.
14 (22.2%)
Center talent is rare, the Celtics track record is average compared to other teams.
14 (22.2%)
Poor development/coaching.
2 (3.2%)
They simply take the BPA/haven't often been in the right slot to take good centers.
11 (17.5%)
Their philosophy/draft strategy/system/roster made it lower priority.
5 (7.9%)
A combination/all of options 2-6.
14 (22.2%)
None of the above.
3 (4.8%)

Total Members Voted: 62

Author Topic: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?  (Read 18430 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?
« Reply #90 on: September 15, 2014, 06:36:40 PM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
Since Ainge began drafting in 2004, the Celtics have missed out on:

Varajao-took Al Jefferson, which netted us KG. glad we missed out on him
David Lee- Not a Center. Bad draft though (gerald green)
Blatche- headcase, though we shouldve picked anyone other than Green
Gortat-clear miss, tbf a lot of teams did and hes an international player. Ainge should hire better international scouts.
Hawes-Drafted Jeff Green (traded for Ray) again, glad we missed out
Marc Gasol-see above
Noah-see Hawes
Pekovic-clear miss, one of Ainge's worst draft year
Asik-see above, ill add Jordan to this list
Miles Plumlee-shouldve been taken instead of The Fabolous Melo
Dieng-took Olynyk, jury is out (although I wouldntve taken Dieng and took the Greek Freak instead)
Nurkic-took smart, nurkic would be a reach there and was picked before their next pick
McGary-Early to tell if hes a better pick than James Young

From Above the only clear misses Ainge had was the year he drafted Giddens, Fab Melo. and Gerald Green. Draft is a crapshoot, and the only draft where you can say at that time that Ainge shouldve drafted a big was in the Giddens draft (Asik Jordan Pekovic). The Rationale though was we were set in bigs at that time (Perk, KG, Powe, Big Baby were healthy) and we had to replace James Posey. We didnt know at that time that Perk, KG, and Powe would have career altering injuries.

The draft is not a crap-shoot.  There are always talented players available.  Always.  Even in 2013 ;D 

Now, you may be right about Perk, but I seem to recall the bone spurs in KG's knee being discovered prior to the 08-09 season, and Powe, like Bill Walton, was, unfortunately, a ticking time bomb with those knees.  We also shouldn't have had to replace Posey - we should have resigned him.  Period.  I don't care if it was for 4 years or not.

 The draft is a crap shoot. And Posey wasn't anywhere close to worth that deal. Danny was smart to pass on it.

Really?  The MLE for 4 years was too expensive for our glue guy who hit huge shots, played great defense at multiple positions and was Mr. Intangibles?  Come on, man.  We never replaced him, and the only guy that might have come close to doing so, Wesley Matthews, was passed over in the 2009 draft.  Ugh.

  Yes, the MLE for 4 years was too expensive for Posey. His biggest value add to the 2008 team was those intangibles, such as grit, toughness, championship experience and leadership. After the team won the title they had all those things in spades. It would have been a foolish signing.

I remember wanting to throw the tv out the window when we passed on him, especially for Lester Hudson?  Come on, Danny - wake up!  The kid wasn't even in the league for two years before he was gone.  It's one thing to miss out on players, but it's quite another to take guys who won't even be in the league in two years.  That's pathetic, so for Danny, yeah, the draft is a crap shoot.  Ginobili was taken at 57.  It's not like this hasn't happened before.  It's rare, yes, but it does happen, and those opportunities are few and far between.  We needed Matthews.  He would have made a huge difference, on both ends, not just for that year, but for the subsequent ones.  HUGE MISTAKE.  Ugh.

  Your analysis of Danny's drafting is fairly ridiculous. If you're going to compare a GM's draft picks to the best players who were chosen after them then every GM in the history of the league will look bad. Danny's picks have been seen as well above average in pretty much every unbiased evaluation I've seen. Lester Hudson seems like a bad pick when you compare him to one player that *everyone* passed on, including the GM of the team he ended up on. But if you take a more realistic view of the situation you'd realize that most of the players drafted at that spot never play in a single nba game, the pick doesn't look so bad.

Not really - not when it was so blatantly obvious as to who the bpa was.  Just because a draft slot doesn't produce players historically doesn't mean that you should just throw in the towel and give up.  That's just stupid.  Hudson wasn't going to play anyway because Eddie House was still there, so it made no sense in terms of fit, either. 

  If it was so blatantly obvious who the bpa was then he wouldn't have been available when Danny was drafted, or he would have surely been scooped up within a pick or two. All you're giving us is 20/20 hindsight.

Also, I don't think my analysis is ridiculous at all.  How else are you to evaluate the ability of your gm to draft quality players if he keeps whiffing on the guys who could have helped you?  That's the only way to evaluate the people in your front office, and don't give me the excuse that Danny didn't have prime draft position so he couldn't have been realistically expected to draft well from said spots.  Bull****. 

  The most obvious way to evaluate Danny's ability would be to compare the Celts drafting record with Danny to the drafting records of the other 29 teams. How do they do in similar spots? How do Danny's picks in the teens or 20s or 2nd round compare to players historically drafted in those spots? Danny's clearly well above average if you look at the draft like that. Al was a great pick at 15, Sully, Rondo and Perk were great picks at their spots, TA and West were good picks, and he's had tons of picks in the 2nd round that were well above what you'd expect at the spots that they were taken in.

I just find it incredibly frustrating that a moron like me can read over some scouting reports, blog posts, watch some clips on YouTube and be consistently able to pick better players than Ainge, who has everything at his disposal.  It's kind of embarrassing, honestly.

  I'm not sold that's really what's happening and not just selective memory on your part. But who knows, maybe you're better at this than most people who get paid to do it. But maybe I'm wrong about it. Danny picked 6th, so why don't you give us brief rundowns on just how good the players from 5-8 in the draft will be, there seems to be some debate on the subject. Danny also had #17, so who will be the top players in the 17-24 range would be great. Also, since this seems to be in your wheel house, why don't you let us know who's going to be the best player taken in the 55-60 range, and which undrafted players will make the most impact? We'll keep an eye on your picks in the future and then decide how you stack up to the pros.

No, I'm not, and I wouldn't feel so strongly about this had that been the case.  These are the players I wanted at the time, and whether you choose to believe me or not, history has clearly shown that the guys who I wanted have been far better players than the ones selected by Ainge, and it's not even close.  Without further ado, then, by year, here are the guys I wanted at that moment in time (all of these selections were made from the Celtics' original draft positions, btw):

2008: Deandre Jordan (30th).
2009: Wesley Matthews (57th).
2010: Lance Stephenson (19th) and Samardo Samuels (52nd).
2011: Honestly, this one is my worst draft.  Jordan Hamilton (25th) and Scotty Hopson (55th).
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st.  Ainge had to take him there.), Tony Wroten (22nd.  If I remember this one correctly.  At the very least, it was between Wroten, PJ III, and Arnett Moultrie; and no, Wroten would not have fit on our team had Stephenson been here, but, imo, he was the bpa.), and Henry Sims (51st).
2013: Tim Hardaway Jr. (16th).
2014: I actually liked Danny's picks for once, as I wanted Smart and Young, too. It was a toss-up between Smart and Randle, though, and it was tough seeing Phoenix take TJ Warren, but the other guys who I wished we could have gotten were McGary and KJ McDaniels.  Rodney Hood may also come back to haunt us, as well.  Man was that draft loaded lol. 

I'd also like to point out that, probably because I'm a pessimist lol, I don't tend to make player comparisons.  Did I have any idea that Lance Stephenson would be this good?  No, but I loved his talent.

So, how'd I do?

If you're claiming that Smart and Young will be better than anyone else taken near them in the draft that's a start, I'm still waiting to hear about who the top players will be at the end of the draft or out of the undrafted players. Who you claim to have liked in past drafts wasn't what I was asking for.

I'm not claiming any of that.  Am I hopeful?  Yes, but we haven't even seen Young play yet.

As for your last statement, those aren't, "claims," - they're facts, and were exactly who I wanted at the time, whether you believe me or not, and I'm guessing that no one does or will, but you know what, for some reason, that doesn't matter to me right now, because I've consistently gotten more with less than Ainge ever has.  Seriously, if anyone on here was in Danny's shoes, I somehow get the feeling that we'd have at least 2 titles to show for it.

I only posted on here during the draft this year, and, even though with this argument I wish that I had the paperwork to show for it (because apparently my word means nothing on here, but if you knew me, you'd know that I'm telling the truth, but whatever), but even if I did have my predictions/selections on file on here, I somehow get the feeling that you and everyone else would still think that I'm only using hindsight and that I have no idea what I'm talking about.

  People would be at least somewhat less skeptical if you had selections "on file". But if you were that good in the past, it would show up going forward. I'm still somewhat curious about who the standouts would be from the end of the draft/undrafted players.

Re: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?
« Reply #91 on: September 15, 2014, 11:45:35 PM »

Offline Beat LA

  • NCE
  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8338
  • Tommy Points: 896
  • Mr. Emoji
Since Ainge began drafting in 2004, the Celtics have missed out on:

Varajao-took Al Jefferson, which netted us KG. glad we missed out on him
David Lee- Not a Center. Bad draft though (gerald green)
Blatche- headcase, though we shouldve picked anyone other than Green
Gortat-clear miss, tbf a lot of teams did and hes an international player. Ainge should hire better international scouts.
Hawes-Drafted Jeff Green (traded for Ray) again, glad we missed out
Marc Gasol-see above
Noah-see Hawes
Pekovic-clear miss, one of Ainge's worst draft year
Asik-see above, ill add Jordan to this list
Miles Plumlee-shouldve been taken instead of The Fabolous Melo
Dieng-took Olynyk, jury is out (although I wouldntve taken Dieng and took the Greek Freak instead)
Nurkic-took smart, nurkic would be a reach there and was picked before their next pick
McGary-Early to tell if hes a better pick than James Young

From Above the only clear misses Ainge had was the year he drafted Giddens, Fab Melo. and Gerald Green. Draft is a crapshoot, and the only draft where you can say at that time that Ainge shouldve drafted a big was in the Giddens draft (Asik Jordan Pekovic). The Rationale though was we were set in bigs at that time (Perk, KG, Powe, Big Baby were healthy) and we had to replace James Posey. We didnt know at that time that Perk, KG, and Powe would have career altering injuries.

The draft is not a crap-shoot.  There are always talented players available.  Always.  Even in 2013 ;D 

Now, you may be right about Perk, but I seem to recall the bone spurs in KG's knee being discovered prior to the 08-09 season, and Powe, like Bill Walton, was, unfortunately, a ticking time bomb with those knees.  We also shouldn't have had to replace Posey - we should have resigned him.  Period.  I don't care if it was for 4 years or not.

 The draft is a crap shoot. And Posey wasn't anywhere close to worth that deal. Danny was smart to pass on it.

Really?  The MLE for 4 years was too expensive for our glue guy who hit huge shots, played great defense at multiple positions and was Mr. Intangibles?  Come on, man.  We never replaced him, and the only guy that might have come close to doing so, Wesley Matthews, was passed over in the 2009 draft.  Ugh.

  Yes, the MLE for 4 years was too expensive for Posey. His biggest value add to the 2008 team was those intangibles, such as grit, toughness, championship experience and leadership. After the team won the title they had all those things in spades. It would have been a foolish signing.

I remember wanting to throw the tv out the window when we passed on him, especially for Lester Hudson?  Come on, Danny - wake up!  The kid wasn't even in the league for two years before he was gone.  It's one thing to miss out on players, but it's quite another to take guys who won't even be in the league in two years.  That's pathetic, so for Danny, yeah, the draft is a crap shoot.  Ginobili was taken at 57.  It's not like this hasn't happened before.  It's rare, yes, but it does happen, and those opportunities are few and far between.  We needed Matthews.  He would have made a huge difference, on both ends, not just for that year, but for the subsequent ones.  HUGE MISTAKE.  Ugh.

  Your analysis of Danny's drafting is fairly ridiculous. If you're going to compare a GM's draft picks to the best players who were chosen after them then every GM in the history of the league will look bad. Danny's picks have been seen as well above average in pretty much every unbiased evaluation I've seen. Lester Hudson seems like a bad pick when you compare him to one player that *everyone* passed on, including the GM of the team he ended up on. But if you take a more realistic view of the situation you'd realize that most of the players drafted at that spot never play in a single nba game, the pick doesn't look so bad.

Not really - not when it was so blatantly obvious as to who the bpa was.  Just because a draft slot doesn't produce players historically doesn't mean that you should just throw in the towel and give up.  That's just stupid.  Hudson wasn't going to play anyway because Eddie House was still there, so it made no sense in terms of fit, either. 

  If it was so blatantly obvious who the bpa was then he wouldn't have been available when Danny was drafted, or he would have surely been scooped up within a pick or two. All you're giving us is 20/20 hindsight.

Also, I don't think my analysis is ridiculous at all.  How else are you to evaluate the ability of your gm to draft quality players if he keeps whiffing on the guys who could have helped you?  That's the only way to evaluate the people in your front office, and don't give me the excuse that Danny didn't have prime draft position so he couldn't have been realistically expected to draft well from said spots.  Bull****. 

  The most obvious way to evaluate Danny's ability would be to compare the Celts drafting record with Danny to the drafting records of the other 29 teams. How do they do in similar spots? How do Danny's picks in the teens or 20s or 2nd round compare to players historically drafted in those spots? Danny's clearly well above average if you look at the draft like that. Al was a great pick at 15, Sully, Rondo and Perk were great picks at their spots, TA and West were good picks, and he's had tons of picks in the 2nd round that were well above what you'd expect at the spots that they were taken in.

I just find it incredibly frustrating that a moron like me can read over some scouting reports, blog posts, watch some clips on YouTube and be consistently able to pick better players than Ainge, who has everything at his disposal.  It's kind of embarrassing, honestly.

  I'm not sold that's really what's happening and not just selective memory on your part. But who knows, maybe you're better at this than most people who get paid to do it. But maybe I'm wrong about it. Danny picked 6th, so why don't you give us brief rundowns on just how good the players from 5-8 in the draft will be, there seems to be some debate on the subject. Danny also had #17, so who will be the top players in the 17-24 range would be great. Also, since this seems to be in your wheel house, why don't you let us know who's going to be the best player taken in the 55-60 range, and which undrafted players will make the most impact? We'll keep an eye on your picks in the future and then decide how you stack up to the pros.

No, I'm not, and I wouldn't feel so strongly about this had that been the case.  These are the players I wanted at the time, and whether you choose to believe me or not, history has clearly shown that the guys who I wanted have been far better players than the ones selected by Ainge, and it's not even close.  Without further ado, then, by year, here are the guys I wanted at that moment in time (all of these selections were made from the Celtics' original draft positions, btw):

2008: Deandre Jordan (30th).
2009: Wesley Matthews (57th).
2010: Lance Stephenson (19th) and Samardo Samuels (52nd).
2011: Honestly, this one is my worst draft.  Jordan Hamilton (25th) and Scotty Hopson (55th).
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st.  Ainge had to take him there.), Tony Wroten (22nd.  If I remember this one correctly.  At the very least, it was between Wroten, PJ III, and Arnett Moultrie; and no, Wroten would not have fit on our team had Stephenson been here, but, imo, he was the bpa.), and Henry Sims (51st).
2013: Tim Hardaway Jr. (16th).
2014: I actually liked Danny's picks for once, as I wanted Smart and Young, too. It was a toss-up between Smart and Randle, though, and it was tough seeing Phoenix take TJ Warren, but the other guys who I wished we could have gotten were McGary and KJ McDaniels.  Rodney Hood may also come back to haunt us, as well.  Man was that draft loaded lol. 

I'd also like to point out that, probably because I'm a pessimist lol, I don't tend to make player comparisons.  Did I have any idea that Lance Stephenson would be this good?  No, but I loved his talent.

So, how'd I do?

If you're claiming that Smart and Young will be better than anyone else taken near them in the draft that's a start, I'm still waiting to hear about who the top players will be at the end of the draft or out of the undrafted players. Who you claim to have liked in past drafts wasn't what I was asking for.

I'm not claiming any of that.  Am I hopeful?  Yes, but we haven't even seen Young play yet.

As for your last statement, those aren't, "claims," - they're facts, and were exactly who I wanted at the time, whether you believe me or not, and I'm guessing that no one does or will, but you know what, for some reason, that doesn't matter to me right now, because I've consistently gotten more with less than Ainge ever has.  Seriously, if anyone on here was in Danny's shoes, I somehow get the feeling that we'd have at least 2 titles to show for it.

I only posted on here during the draft this year, and, even though with this argument I wish that I had the paperwork to show for it (because apparently my word means nothing on here, but if you knew me, you'd know that I'm telling the truth, but whatever), but even if I did have my predictions/selections on file on here, I somehow get the feeling that you and everyone else would still think that I'm only using hindsight and that I have no idea what I'm talking about.

People would be at least somewhat less skeptical if you had selections "on file". But if you were that good in the past, it would show up going forward. I'm still somewhat curious about who the standouts would be from the end of the draft/undrafted players.

I know, it's frustrating.  I'm sure that it was just beginner's luck, anyway, to be honest lol, but I'll tell you what, let me look over the draft and I'll get back to you in a day or two.  I somehow get the feeling that now my picks are going to busts haha.  We should probably put in some guidelines, though, as to how long a prediction gets before said player turns into a bust, because even in the case of Lance Stephenson, he really didn't even get a chance until his 3rd year in the league.  Should we go by the length of a rookie's contract?  Man, this thread has gotten soooo off topic ;D.  Oops.

Re: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?
« Reply #92 on: September 16, 2014, 12:10:13 AM »

Offline DarkAzcura

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 644
  • Tommy Points: 100
Since Ainge began drafting in 2004, the Celtics have missed out on:

Varajao-took Al Jefferson, which netted us KG. glad we missed out on him
David Lee- Not a Center. Bad draft though (gerald green)
Blatche- headcase, though we shouldve picked anyone other than Green
Gortat-clear miss, tbf a lot of teams did and hes an international player. Ainge should hire better international scouts.
Hawes-Drafted Jeff Green (traded for Ray) again, glad we missed out
Marc Gasol-see above
Noah-see Hawes
Pekovic-clear miss, one of Ainge's worst draft year
Asik-see above, ill add Jordan to this list
Miles Plumlee-shouldve been taken instead of The Fabolous Melo
Dieng-took Olynyk, jury is out (although I wouldntve taken Dieng and took the Greek Freak instead)
Nurkic-took smart, nurkic would be a reach there and was picked before their next pick
McGary-Early to tell if hes a better pick than James Young

From Above the only clear misses Ainge had was the year he drafted Giddens, Fab Melo. and Gerald Green. Draft is a crapshoot, and the only draft where you can say at that time that Ainge shouldve drafted a big was in the Giddens draft (Asik Jordan Pekovic). The Rationale though was we were set in bigs at that time (Perk, KG, Powe, Big Baby were healthy) and we had to replace James Posey. We didnt know at that time that Perk, KG, and Powe would have career altering injuries.

The draft is not a crap-shoot.  There are always talented players available.  Always.  Even in 2013 ;D 

Now, you may be right about Perk, but I seem to recall the bone spurs in KG's knee being discovered prior to the 08-09 season, and Powe, like Bill Walton, was, unfortunately, a ticking time bomb with those knees.  We also shouldn't have had to replace Posey - we should have resigned him.  Period.  I don't care if it was for 4 years or not.

 The draft is a crap shoot. And Posey wasn't anywhere close to worth that deal. Danny was smart to pass on it.

Really?  The MLE for 4 years was too expensive for our glue guy who hit huge shots, played great defense at multiple positions and was Mr. Intangibles?  Come on, man.  We never replaced him, and the only guy that might have come close to doing so, Wesley Matthews, was passed over in the 2009 draft.  Ugh.

  Yes, the MLE for 4 years was too expensive for Posey. His biggest value add to the 2008 team was those intangibles, such as grit, toughness, championship experience and leadership. After the team won the title they had all those things in spades. It would have been a foolish signing.

I remember wanting to throw the tv out the window when we passed on him, especially for Lester Hudson?  Come on, Danny - wake up!  The kid wasn't even in the league for two years before he was gone.  It's one thing to miss out on players, but it's quite another to take guys who won't even be in the league in two years.  That's pathetic, so for Danny, yeah, the draft is a crap shoot.  Ginobili was taken at 57.  It's not like this hasn't happened before.  It's rare, yes, but it does happen, and those opportunities are few and far between.  We needed Matthews.  He would have made a huge difference, on both ends, not just for that year, but for the subsequent ones.  HUGE MISTAKE.  Ugh.

  Your analysis of Danny's drafting is fairly ridiculous. If you're going to compare a GM's draft picks to the best players who were chosen after them then every GM in the history of the league will look bad. Danny's picks have been seen as well above average in pretty much every unbiased evaluation I've seen. Lester Hudson seems like a bad pick when you compare him to one player that *everyone* passed on, including the GM of the team he ended up on. But if you take a more realistic view of the situation you'd realize that most of the players drafted at that spot never play in a single nba game, the pick doesn't look so bad.

Not really - not when it was so blatantly obvious as to who the bpa was.  Just because a draft slot doesn't produce players historically doesn't mean that you should just throw in the towel and give up.  That's just stupid.  Hudson wasn't going to play anyway because Eddie House was still there, so it made no sense in terms of fit, either. 

  If it was so blatantly obvious who the bpa was then he wouldn't have been available when Danny was drafted, or he would have surely been scooped up within a pick or two. All you're giving us is 20/20 hindsight.

Also, I don't think my analysis is ridiculous at all.  How else are you to evaluate the ability of your gm to draft quality players if he keeps whiffing on the guys who could have helped you?  That's the only way to evaluate the people in your front office, and don't give me the excuse that Danny didn't have prime draft position so he couldn't have been realistically expected to draft well from said spots.  Bull****. 

  The most obvious way to evaluate Danny's ability would be to compare the Celts drafting record with Danny to the drafting records of the other 29 teams. How do they do in similar spots? How do Danny's picks in the teens or 20s or 2nd round compare to players historically drafted in those spots? Danny's clearly well above average if you look at the draft like that. Al was a great pick at 15, Sully, Rondo and Perk were great picks at their spots, TA and West were good picks, and he's had tons of picks in the 2nd round that were well above what you'd expect at the spots that they were taken in.

I just find it incredibly frustrating that a moron like me can read over some scouting reports, blog posts, watch some clips on YouTube and be consistently able to pick better players than Ainge, who has everything at his disposal.  It's kind of embarrassing, honestly.

  I'm not sold that's really what's happening and not just selective memory on your part. But who knows, maybe you're better at this than most people who get paid to do it. But maybe I'm wrong about it. Danny picked 6th, so why don't you give us brief rundowns on just how good the players from 5-8 in the draft will be, there seems to be some debate on the subject. Danny also had #17, so who will be the top players in the 17-24 range would be great. Also, since this seems to be in your wheel house, why don't you let us know who's going to be the best player taken in the 55-60 range, and which undrafted players will make the most impact? We'll keep an eye on your picks in the future and then decide how you stack up to the pros.

No, I'm not, and I wouldn't feel so strongly about this had that been the case.  These are the players I wanted at the time, and whether you choose to believe me or not, history has clearly shown that the guys who I wanted have been far better players than the ones selected by Ainge, and it's not even close.  Without further ado, then, by year, here are the guys I wanted at that moment in time (all of these selections were made from the Celtics' original draft positions, btw):

2008: Deandre Jordan (30th).
2009: Wesley Matthews (57th).
2010: Lance Stephenson (19th) and Samardo Samuels (52nd).
2011: Honestly, this one is my worst draft.  Jordan Hamilton (25th) and Scotty Hopson (55th).
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st.  Ainge had to take him there.), Tony Wroten (22nd.  If I remember this one correctly.  At the very least, it was between Wroten, PJ III, and Arnett Moultrie; and no, Wroten would not have fit on our team had Stephenson been here, but, imo, he was the bpa.), and Henry Sims (51st).
2013: Tim Hardaway Jr. (16th).
2014: I actually liked Danny's picks for once, as I wanted Smart and Young, too. It was a toss-up between Smart and Randle, though, and it was tough seeing Phoenix take TJ Warren, but the other guys who I wished we could have gotten were McGary and KJ McDaniels.  Rodney Hood may also come back to haunt us, as well.  Man was that draft loaded lol. 

I'd also like to point out that, probably because I'm a pessimist lol, I don't tend to make player comparisons.  Did I have any idea that Lance Stephenson would be this good?  No, but I loved his talent.

So, how'd I do?

Your issue is that you honestly believe Ainge should have had a hit on 100% of his picks, which is incredibly unrealistic. The only pick I think Ainge truly whiffed on and bothers me is DeAndre Jordan. Even that was an understandable skip because Perkins ended up looking really good in the 08-09 season. He even averaged 12/12 in the playoffs. His unpredictable injury was what threw his career off. I still would have liked Jordan even if Ainge thought Perkins was his "franchise center" for the next 5-7 years because you can never have too many big men with that kind of potential. For that reason, I agree with you on this pick, but only this pick.

Your other picks are cool, but who cares honestly? Are you honestly making a big deal out of Ainge missing out on the likes of Wesley Matthews and Tim Hardaway Jr? Also, you said all of your picks were better than what Ainge picked. In what world is THJ better than Olynyk? Olynyk is a 7 footer with ball handling skills, 3PT shooting, passing ability, and good rebounding. Hardaway Jr was a 3PT shooter who projects to be nothing more than that. Don't fall for the NY hype. You're way off on that one if you really believe that pick is "way better" than Olynyk. THJ shouldn't been no where near the all rookie first team.

Wesley Matthews would have been nice to have and kudos to you if you actually wanted him, but the second round is a crapshoot. He was undrafted for a reason, and you can't be mad at Ainge for missing out on him. Even the Jazz decided to let him go after his rookie year because they didn't think he was worth the money. Matthew's career is basically defined by people underestimating him for whatever reason. Ainge isn't alone on this. No one had any reason to believe Matthews would turn out to be as good a shooter as he became. He was really mediocre from the college 3PT line so who really knew? Honestly, he might only have become as good a shooter as he is now because of a shooting coach in Utah. Who knows if this happens in Boston.

Lance vs Bradley? Yeah, Lance is better now, but he is also considered a head case. Also, I'm not too sure if Lance would be considered better right now if it weren't for Bradley's injuries. It's not like Bradley was a bad pick at all. That's still a very, very good pick, and I don't mind having him over Lance to this day.

I read a later post of yours, and you mentioned how Al Jefferson, Delonte, and Kevin Martin would have been a hell of a draft, and yes, I agree, it would have been, but it speaks to my point that I think you are way too focused on Ainge hitting a home run on every single pick. Jefferson, Delonte, and Tony Allen is still a pretty incredible draft regardless of Martin vs Allen. Why harp on such a minor thing?

There has been plenty of articles written judging GM's drafting ability based on statistical analysis and draft position, and Ainge almost always ranks out in the top 5 at worst. You are being far too nitpicky.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 12:26:44 AM by DarkAzcura »

Re: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?
« Reply #93 on: September 16, 2014, 01:15:56 AM »

Offline Beat LA

  • NCE
  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8338
  • Tommy Points: 896
  • Mr. Emoji
Since Ainge began drafting in 2004, the Celtics have missed out on:

Varajao-took Al Jefferson, which netted us KG. glad we missed out on him
David Lee- Not a Center. Bad draft though (gerald green)
Blatche- headcase, though we shouldve picked anyone other than Green
Gortat-clear miss, tbf a lot of teams did and hes an international player. Ainge should hire better international scouts.
Hawes-Drafted Jeff Green (traded for Ray) again, glad we missed out
Marc Gasol-see above
Noah-see Hawes
Pekovic-clear miss, one of Ainge's worst draft year
Asik-see above, ill add Jordan to this list
Miles Plumlee-shouldve been taken instead of The Fabolous Melo
Dieng-took Olynyk, jury is out (although I wouldntve taken Dieng and took the Greek Freak instead)
Nurkic-took smart, nurkic would be a reach there and was picked before their next pick
McGary-Early to tell if hes a better pick than James Young

From Above the only clear misses Ainge had was the year he drafted Giddens, Fab Melo. and Gerald Green. Draft is a crapshoot, and the only draft where you can say at that time that Ainge shouldve drafted a big was in the Giddens draft (Asik Jordan Pekovic). The Rationale though was we were set in bigs at that time (Perk, KG, Powe, Big Baby were healthy) and we had to replace James Posey. We didnt know at that time that Perk, KG, and Powe would have career altering injuries.

The draft is not a crap-shoot.  There are always talented players available.  Always.  Even in 2013 ;D 

Now, you may be right about Perk, but I seem to recall the bone spurs in KG's knee being discovered prior to the 08-09 season, and Powe, like Bill Walton, was, unfortunately, a ticking time bomb with those knees.  We also shouldn't have had to replace Posey - we should have resigned him.  Period.  I don't care if it was for 4 years or not.

 The draft is a crap shoot. And Posey wasn't anywhere close to worth that deal. Danny was smart to pass on it.

Really?  The MLE for 4 years was too expensive for our glue guy who hit huge shots, played great defense at multiple positions and was Mr. Intangibles?  Come on, man.  We never replaced him, and the only guy that might have come close to doing so, Wesley Matthews, was passed over in the 2009 draft.  Ugh.

  Yes, the MLE for 4 years was too expensive for Posey. His biggest value add to the 2008 team was those intangibles, such as grit, toughness, championship experience and leadership. After the team won the title they had all those things in spades. It would have been a foolish signing.

I remember wanting to throw the tv out the window when we passed on him, especially for Lester Hudson?  Come on, Danny - wake up!  The kid wasn't even in the league for two years before he was gone.  It's one thing to miss out on players, but it's quite another to take guys who won't even be in the league in two years.  That's pathetic, so for Danny, yeah, the draft is a crap shoot.  Ginobili was taken at 57.  It's not like this hasn't happened before.  It's rare, yes, but it does happen, and those opportunities are few and far between.  We needed Matthews.  He would have made a huge difference, on both ends, not just for that year, but for the subsequent ones.  HUGE MISTAKE.  Ugh.

  Your analysis of Danny's drafting is fairly ridiculous. If you're going to compare a GM's draft picks to the best players who were chosen after them then every GM in the history of the league will look bad. Danny's picks have been seen as well above average in pretty much every unbiased evaluation I've seen. Lester Hudson seems like a bad pick when you compare him to one player that *everyone* passed on, including the GM of the team he ended up on. But if you take a more realistic view of the situation you'd realize that most of the players drafted at that spot never play in a single nba game, the pick doesn't look so bad.

Not really - not when it was so blatantly obvious as to who the bpa was.  Just because a draft slot doesn't produce players historically doesn't mean that you should just throw in the towel and give up.  That's just stupid.  Hudson wasn't going to play anyway because Eddie House was still there, so it made no sense in terms of fit, either. 

  If it was so blatantly obvious who the bpa was then he wouldn't have been available when Danny was drafted, or he would have surely been scooped up within a pick or two. All you're giving us is 20/20 hindsight.

Also, I don't think my analysis is ridiculous at all.  How else are you to evaluate the ability of your gm to draft quality players if he keeps whiffing on the guys who could have helped you?  That's the only way to evaluate the people in your front office, and don't give me the excuse that Danny didn't have prime draft position so he couldn't have been realistically expected to draft well from said spots.  Bull****. 

  The most obvious way to evaluate Danny's ability would be to compare the Celts drafting record with Danny to the drafting records of the other 29 teams. How do they do in similar spots? How do Danny's picks in the teens or 20s or 2nd round compare to players historically drafted in those spots? Danny's clearly well above average if you look at the draft like that. Al was a great pick at 15, Sully, Rondo and Perk were great picks at their spots, TA and West were good picks, and he's had tons of picks in the 2nd round that were well above what you'd expect at the spots that they were taken in.

I just find it incredibly frustrating that a moron like me can read over some scouting reports, blog posts, watch some clips on YouTube and be consistently able to pick better players than Ainge, who has everything at his disposal.  It's kind of embarrassing, honestly.

  I'm not sold that's really what's happening and not just selective memory on your part. But who knows, maybe you're better at this than most people who get paid to do it. But maybe I'm wrong about it. Danny picked 6th, so why don't you give us brief rundowns on just how good the players from 5-8 in the draft will be, there seems to be some debate on the subject. Danny also had #17, so who will be the top players in the 17-24 range would be great. Also, since this seems to be in your wheel house, why don't you let us know who's going to be the best player taken in the 55-60 range, and which undrafted players will make the most impact? We'll keep an eye on your picks in the future and then decide how you stack up to the pros.

No, I'm not, and I wouldn't feel so strongly about this had that been the case.  These are the players I wanted at the time, and whether you choose to believe me or not, history has clearly shown that the guys who I wanted have been far better players than the ones selected by Ainge, and it's not even close.  Without further ado, then, by year, here are the guys I wanted at that moment in time (all of these selections were made from the Celtics' original draft positions, btw):

2008: Deandre Jordan (30th).
2009: Wesley Matthews (57th).
2010: Lance Stephenson (19th) and Samardo Samuels (52nd).
2011: Honestly, this one is my worst draft.  Jordan Hamilton (25th) and Scotty Hopson (55th).
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st.  Ainge had to take him there.), Tony Wroten (22nd.  If I remember this one correctly.  At the very least, it was between Wroten, PJ III, and Arnett Moultrie; and no, Wroten would not have fit on our team had Stephenson been here, but, imo, he was the bpa.), and Henry Sims (51st).
2013: Tim Hardaway Jr. (16th).
2014: I actually liked Danny's picks for once, as I wanted Smart and Young, too. It was a toss-up between Smart and Randle, though, and it was tough seeing Phoenix take TJ Warren, but the other guys who I wished we could have gotten were McGary and KJ McDaniels.  Rodney Hood may also come back to haunt us, as well.  Man was that draft loaded lol. 

I'd also like to point out that, probably because I'm a pessimist lol, I don't tend to make player comparisons.  Did I have any idea that Lance Stephenson would be this good?  No, but I loved his talent.

So, how'd I do?

Your issue is that you honestly believe Ainge should have had a hit on 100% of his picks, which is incredibly unrealistic. The only pick I think Ainge truly whiffed on and bothers me is DeAndre Jordan. Even that was an understandable skip because Perkins ended up looking really good in the 08-09 season. He even averaged 12/12 in the playoffs. His unpredictable injury was what threw his career off. I still would have liked Jordan even if Ainge thought Perkins was his "franchise center" for the next 5-7 years because you can never have too many big men with that kind of potential. For that reason, I agree with you on this pick, but only this pick.

Your other picks are cool, but who cares honestly? Are you honestly making a big deal out of Ainge missing out on the likes of Wesley Matthews and Tim Hardaway Jr? Also, you said all of your picks were better than what Ainge picked. In what world is THJ better than Olynyk? Olynyk is a 7 footer with ball handling skills, 3PT shooting, passing ability, and good rebounding. Hardaway Jr was a 3PT shooter who projects to be nothing more than that. Don't fall for the NY hype. You're way off on that one if you really believe that pick is "way better" than Olynyk. THJ shouldn't been no where near the all rookie first team.

Wesley Matthews would have been nice to have and kudos to you if you actually wanted him, but the second round is a crapshoot. He was undrafted for a reason, and you can't be mad at Ainge for missing out on him. Even the Jazz decided to let him go after his rookie year because they didn't think he was worth the money. Matthew's career is basically defined by people underestimating him for whatever reason. Ainge isn't alone on this. No one had any reason to believe Matthews would turn out to be as good a shooter as he became. He was really mediocre from the college 3PT line so who really knew? Honestly, he might only have become as good a shooter as he is now because of a shooting coach in Utah. Who knows if this happens in Boston.

Lance vs Bradley? Yeah, Lance is better now, but he is also considered a head case. Also, I'm not too sure if Lance would be considered better right now if it weren't for Bradley's injuries. It's not like Bradley was a bad pick at all. That's still a very, very good pick, and I don't mind having him over Lance to this day.

I read a later post of yours, and you mentioned how Al Jefferson, Delonte, and Kevin Martin would have been a hell of a draft, and yes, I agree, it would have been, but it speaks to my point that I think you are way too focused on Ainge hitting a home run on every single pick. Jefferson, Delonte, and Tony Allen is still a pretty incredible draft regardless of Martin vs Allen. Why harp on such a minor thing?

There has been plenty of articles written judging GM's drafting ability based on statistical analysis and draft position, and Ainge almost always ranks out in the top 5 at worst. You are being far too nitpicky.

No, no, you're right.  Like I said in another post, this is probably nothing more than beginner's luck, which is also why it's so frustrating.  I agree that KO is much better than THJ, but that wasn't what I was referring to.  I was saying that, without trades, at #16, with both Olynyk and the Greek Freak off the board :'(, THJ was the bpa, imo.  I never factored in trades, I was going by original draft position for a reason, and, considering how mediocre that draft has shown to be, wouldn't THJ have been a good selection?

Also, the reason why I've made such a big deal about Wesley Matthews is because that guy could have been for us in 09-10 what Posey was in 07-08.  His size, strength, toughness, jump shot, and ability to get to the line would have made for a huge upgrade over Tony Allen, who only bests Matthews athletically.  Besides that, TA is an offensive liability.  Who would you rather have, an awesome two-way player, or a defensive specialist who lacks the ability to think, pass, dribble, and especially shoot.  That's my point, and I really don't think that that's unreasonable.  Granted, it's extremely rare for guys of Matthews' caliber to drop to 57, so when it happens, you've got to take him, but I guess that that's just me.

Finally, in regards to the 2004 draft, I forgot to mention that, although Ainge took Big Al (thank god lol), the player he really wanted was Robert Swift.  Yikes.  In that sense, then, Seattle might have saved Danny as an executive, because the difference between coming away with Jefferson, Delonte, and TA versus a draft of Swift, Delonte, and TA is quite noticeable. 

To the original point of this thread, perhaps the departure of Clifford Ray hurt more than we know.  That guy really made a difference with our young big men. 

Oops.  I forgot about Lance vs. Bradley.  It's nothing against AB, I just thought, at the time, particularly with Ray and Paul not getting any younger, Stephenson would have not only given us a great prospect for the future, but also excellent depth and versatility on both ends, because at 6'5" 230, the guy can play 3 positions, while Bradley, due to his severe lack of playmaking skills, can really only play at sg.  I just think that Stephenson could have really helped reduce the minutes of Allen, Pierce, and, occasionally, Rondo, if Delonte was hurt.
« Last Edit: September 16, 2014, 01:25:28 AM by Beat LA »

Re: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?
« Reply #94 on: September 16, 2014, 01:20:12 AM »

Offline Beat LA

  • NCE
  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8338
  • Tommy Points: 896
  • Mr. Emoji
Since Ainge began drafting in 2004, the Celtics have missed out on:

Varajao-took Al Jefferson, which netted us KG. glad we missed out on him
David Lee- Not a Center. Bad draft though (gerald green)
Blatche- headcase, though we shouldve picked anyone other than Green
Gortat-clear miss, tbf a lot of teams did and hes an international player. Ainge should hire better international scouts.
Hawes-Drafted Jeff Green (traded for Ray) again, glad we missed out
Marc Gasol-see above
Noah-see Hawes
Pekovic-clear miss, one of Ainge's worst draft year
Asik-see above, ill add Jordan to this list
Miles Plumlee-shouldve been taken instead of The Fabolous Melo
Dieng-took Olynyk, jury is out (although I wouldntve taken Dieng and took the Greek Freak instead)
Nurkic-took smart, nurkic would be a reach there and was picked before their next pick
McGary-Early to tell if hes a better pick than James Young

From Above the only clear misses Ainge had was the year he drafted Giddens, Fab Melo. and Gerald Green. Draft is a crapshoot, and the only draft where you can say at that time that Ainge shouldve drafted a big was in the Giddens draft (Asik Jordan Pekovic). The Rationale though was we were set in bigs at that time (Perk, KG, Powe, Big Baby were healthy) and we had to replace James Posey. We didnt know at that time that Perk, KG, and Powe would have career altering injuries.

The draft is not a crap-shoot.  There are always talented players available.  Always.  Even in 2013 ;D 

Now, you may be right about Perk, but I seem to recall the bone spurs in KG's knee being discovered prior to the 08-09 season, and Powe, like Bill Walton, was, unfortunately, a ticking time bomb with those knees.  We also shouldn't have had to replace Posey - we should have resigned him.  Period.  I don't care if it was for 4 years or not.

 The draft is a crap shoot. And Posey wasn't anywhere close to worth that deal. Danny was smart to pass on it.

Really?  The MLE for 4 years was too expensive for our glue guy who hit huge shots, played great defense at multiple positions and was Mr. Intangibles?  Come on, man.  We never replaced him, and the only guy that might have come close to doing so, Wesley Matthews, was passed over in the 2009 draft.  Ugh.

  Yes, the MLE for 4 years was too expensive for Posey. His biggest value add to the 2008 team was those intangibles, such as grit, toughness, championship experience and leadership. After the team won the title they had all those things in spades. It would have been a foolish signing.

I remember wanting to throw the tv out the window when we passed on him, especially for Lester Hudson?  Come on, Danny - wake up!  The kid wasn't even in the league for two years before he was gone.  It's one thing to miss out on players, but it's quite another to take guys who won't even be in the league in two years.  That's pathetic, so for Danny, yeah, the draft is a crap shoot.  Ginobili was taken at 57.  It's not like this hasn't happened before.  It's rare, yes, but it does happen, and those opportunities are few and far between.  We needed Matthews.  He would have made a huge difference, on both ends, not just for that year, but for the subsequent ones.  HUGE MISTAKE.  Ugh.

  Your analysis of Danny's drafting is fairly ridiculous. If you're going to compare a GM's draft picks to the best players who were chosen after them then every GM in the history of the league will look bad. Danny's picks have been seen as well above average in pretty much every unbiased evaluation I've seen. Lester Hudson seems like a bad pick when you compare him to one player that *everyone* passed on, including the GM of the team he ended up on. But if you take a more realistic view of the situation you'd realize that most of the players drafted at that spot never play in a single nba game, the pick doesn't look so bad.

Not really - not when it was so blatantly obvious as to who the bpa was.  Just because a draft slot doesn't produce players historically doesn't mean that you should just throw in the towel and give up.  That's just stupid.  Hudson wasn't going to play anyway because Eddie House was still there, so it made no sense in terms of fit, either. 

Also, I don't think my analysis is ridiculous at all.  How else are you to evaluate the ability of your gm to draft quality players if he keeps whiffing on the guys who could have helped you?  That's the only way to evaluate the people in your front office, and don't give me the excuse that Danny didn't have prime draft position so he couldn't have been realistically expected to draft well from said spots.  Bull****.  No two drafts are the same.  2014 was extremely deep, while 2013 left much to be desired.  Sometimes you can trade up or down, and sometimes you can't, but look at the Spurs.  Duncan aside, none of those players were even lottery picks.  That's a team that does its homework.  That's how Boston used to draft.  That's how Jerry West used to draft.  Sure, they might have missed a player here and there, but overall, the guys they selected were great players. I just find it incredibly frustrating that a moron like me can read over some scouting reports, blog posts, watch some clips on YouTube and be consistently able to pick better players than Ainge, who has everything at his disposal.  It's kind of embarrassing, honestly.

You know, for years and years I've wondered why you aren't running the personnel side of some NBA franchise.  It fairly boggles the mind that such an incredible talent such as yourself hasn't been given the opportunity to construct a world championship roster.  I think we should all make sure that your CV is sent to Wyc's immediate attention. 

Just one thing, though - you won't be able to cherry-pick past selections as GM for an NBA franchise.  But because you liked a guy in the late 2nd round a few years ago who turned out to be a very good NBA player, that won't be a problem for you, and I suspect that you will cash in each and every pick you make...

Being sarcastic is fine, but if you're going to do so, could you at least indicate your sarcasm with a preface or parenthetical statement?  All I'm saying is that if you're going to insult me, do it properly ::)  Thanks.

Oh, and by the way, if I had been in Danny's position, we would have won 2 titles.  At least.  It's pretty funny how the guys I wanted, a few of whom could have been easily claimed off of a virtual scrap heap, turned out to be great fits for the teams who signed them, and they would have been key contributors to our 2010 championship team, but whatever.  I only bleed green.  Give me a shot, you might just be pleasantly surprised.  I'm not being a troll, btw.  I honestly believe that my 09-10 roster would have gotten the fantastic four another ring.   

I call you on your bluster and you turn around and wallop me with another paragraph of it.  Okay, I admire your cheek.  You're a good egg and I'm having a good chuckle while typing this, so thank you for that.  'Preface or parenthetical statement' - ah, so now you want an invitation to the ball?!  Don't worry, it's being held in your honor... ;)

Lol it's okay.  At least you got a laugh out of it :)  The, "if you're going to insult me, do it properly," line is from Monsters Inc. btw ;D  It's just always been one of my favorites for some reason ;D




Re: Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?
« Reply #95 on: September 16, 2014, 06:04:02 AM »

Offline BballTim

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23724
  • Tommy Points: 1123
Since Ainge began drafting in 2004, the Celtics have missed out on:

Varajao-took Al Jefferson, which netted us KG. glad we missed out on him
David Lee- Not a Center. Bad draft though (gerald green)
Blatche- headcase, though we shouldve picked anyone other than Green
Gortat-clear miss, tbf a lot of teams did and hes an international player. Ainge should hire better international scouts.
Hawes-Drafted Jeff Green (traded for Ray) again, glad we missed out
Marc Gasol-see above
Noah-see Hawes
Pekovic-clear miss, one of Ainge's worst draft year
Asik-see above, ill add Jordan to this list
Miles Plumlee-shouldve been taken instead of The Fabolous Melo
Dieng-took Olynyk, jury is out (although I wouldntve taken Dieng and took the Greek Freak instead)
Nurkic-took smart, nurkic would be a reach there and was picked before their next pick
McGary-Early to tell if hes a better pick than James Young

From Above the only clear misses Ainge had was the year he drafted Giddens, Fab Melo. and Gerald Green. Draft is a crapshoot, and the only draft where you can say at that time that Ainge shouldve drafted a big was in the Giddens draft (Asik Jordan Pekovic). The Rationale though was we were set in bigs at that time (Perk, KG, Powe, Big Baby were healthy) and we had to replace James Posey. We didnt know at that time that Perk, KG, and Powe would have career altering injuries.

The draft is not a crap-shoot.  There are always talented players available.  Always.  Even in 2013 ;D 

Now, you may be right about Perk, but I seem to recall the bone spurs in KG's knee being discovered prior to the 08-09 season, and Powe, like Bill Walton, was, unfortunately, a ticking time bomb with those knees.  We also shouldn't have had to replace Posey - we should have resigned him.  Period.  I don't care if it was for 4 years or not.

 The draft is a crap shoot. And Posey wasn't anywhere close to worth that deal. Danny was smart to pass on it.

Really?  The MLE for 4 years was too expensive for our glue guy who hit huge shots, played great defense at multiple positions and was Mr. Intangibles?  Come on, man.  We never replaced him, and the only guy that might have come close to doing so, Wesley Matthews, was passed over in the 2009 draft.  Ugh.

  Yes, the MLE for 4 years was too expensive for Posey. His biggest value add to the 2008 team was those intangibles, such as grit, toughness, championship experience and leadership. After the team won the title they had all those things in spades. It would have been a foolish signing.

I remember wanting to throw the tv out the window when we passed on him, especially for Lester Hudson?  Come on, Danny - wake up!  The kid wasn't even in the league for two years before he was gone.  It's one thing to miss out on players, but it's quite another to take guys who won't even be in the league in two years.  That's pathetic, so for Danny, yeah, the draft is a crap shoot.  Ginobili was taken at 57.  It's not like this hasn't happened before.  It's rare, yes, but it does happen, and those opportunities are few and far between.  We needed Matthews.  He would have made a huge difference, on both ends, not just for that year, but for the subsequent ones.  HUGE MISTAKE.  Ugh.

  Your analysis of Danny's drafting is fairly ridiculous. If you're going to compare a GM's draft picks to the best players who were chosen after them then every GM in the history of the league will look bad. Danny's picks have been seen as well above average in pretty much every unbiased evaluation I've seen. Lester Hudson seems like a bad pick when you compare him to one player that *everyone* passed on, including the GM of the team he ended up on. But if you take a more realistic view of the situation you'd realize that most of the players drafted at that spot never play in a single nba game, the pick doesn't look so bad.

Not really - not when it was so blatantly obvious as to who the bpa was.  Just because a draft slot doesn't produce players historically doesn't mean that you should just throw in the towel and give up.  That's just stupid.  Hudson wasn't going to play anyway because Eddie House was still there, so it made no sense in terms of fit, either. 

  If it was so blatantly obvious who the bpa was then he wouldn't have been available when Danny was drafted, or he would have surely been scooped up within a pick or two. All you're giving us is 20/20 hindsight.

Also, I don't think my analysis is ridiculous at all.  How else are you to evaluate the ability of your gm to draft quality players if he keeps whiffing on the guys who could have helped you?  That's the only way to evaluate the people in your front office, and don't give me the excuse that Danny didn't have prime draft position so he couldn't have been realistically expected to draft well from said spots.  Bull****. 

  The most obvious way to evaluate Danny's ability would be to compare the Celts drafting record with Danny to the drafting records of the other 29 teams. How do they do in similar spots? How do Danny's picks in the teens or 20s or 2nd round compare to players historically drafted in those spots? Danny's clearly well above average if you look at the draft like that. Al was a great pick at 15, Sully, Rondo and Perk were great picks at their spots, TA and West were good picks, and he's had tons of picks in the 2nd round that were well above what you'd expect at the spots that they were taken in.

I just find it incredibly frustrating that a moron like me can read over some scouting reports, blog posts, watch some clips on YouTube and be consistently able to pick better players than Ainge, who has everything at his disposal.  It's kind of embarrassing, honestly.

  I'm not sold that's really what's happening and not just selective memory on your part. But who knows, maybe you're better at this than most people who get paid to do it. But maybe I'm wrong about it. Danny picked 6th, so why don't you give us brief rundowns on just how good the players from 5-8 in the draft will be, there seems to be some debate on the subject. Danny also had #17, so who will be the top players in the 17-24 range would be great. Also, since this seems to be in your wheel house, why don't you let us know who's going to be the best player taken in the 55-60 range, and which undrafted players will make the most impact? We'll keep an eye on your picks in the future and then decide how you stack up to the pros.

No, I'm not, and I wouldn't feel so strongly about this had that been the case.  These are the players I wanted at the time, and whether you choose to believe me or not, history has clearly shown that the guys who I wanted have been far better players than the ones selected by Ainge, and it's not even close.  Without further ado, then, by year, here are the guys I wanted at that moment in time (all of these selections were made from the Celtics' original draft positions, btw):

2008: Deandre Jordan (30th).
2009: Wesley Matthews (57th).
2010: Lance Stephenson (19th) and Samardo Samuels (52nd).
2011: Honestly, this one is my worst draft.  Jordan Hamilton (25th) and Scotty Hopson (55th).
2012: Jared Sullinger (21st.  Ainge had to take him there.), Tony Wroten (22nd.  If I remember this one correctly.  At the very least, it was between Wroten, PJ III, and Arnett Moultrie; and no, Wroten would not have fit on our team had Stephenson been here, but, imo, he was the bpa.), and Henry Sims (51st).
2013: Tim Hardaway Jr. (16th).
2014: I actually liked Danny's picks for once, as I wanted Smart and Young, too. It was a toss-up between Smart and Randle, though, and it was tough seeing Phoenix take TJ Warren, but the other guys who I wished we could have gotten were McGary and KJ McDaniels.  Rodney Hood may also come back to haunt us, as well.  Man was that draft loaded lol. 

I'd also like to point out that, probably because I'm a pessimist lol, I don't tend to make player comparisons.  Did I have any idea that Lance Stephenson would be this good?  No, but I loved his talent.

So, how'd I do?

Your issue is that you honestly believe Ainge should have had a hit on 100% of his picks, which is incredibly unrealistic. The only pick I think Ainge truly whiffed on and bothers me is DeAndre Jordan. Even that was an understandable skip because Perkins ended up looking really good in the 08-09 season. He even averaged 12/12 in the playoffs. His unpredictable injury was what threw his career off. I still would have liked Jordan even if Ainge thought Perkins was his "franchise center" for the next 5-7 years because you can never have too many big men with that kind of potential. For that reason, I agree with you on this pick, but only this pick.

Your other picks are cool, but who cares honestly? Are you honestly making a big deal out of Ainge missing out on the likes of Wesley Matthews and Tim Hardaway Jr? Also, you said all of your picks were better than what Ainge picked. In what world is THJ better than Olynyk? Olynyk is a 7 footer with ball handling skills, 3PT shooting, passing ability, and good rebounding. Hardaway Jr was a 3PT shooter who projects to be nothing more than that. Don't fall for the NY hype. You're way off on that one if you really believe that pick is "way better" than Olynyk. THJ shouldn't been no where near the all rookie first team.

Wesley Matthews would have been nice to have and kudos to you if you actually wanted him, but the second round is a crapshoot. He was undrafted for a reason, and you can't be mad at Ainge for missing out on him. Even the Jazz decided to let him go after his rookie year because they didn't think he was worth the money. Matthew's career is basically defined by people underestimating him for whatever reason. Ainge isn't alone on this. No one had any reason to believe Matthews would turn out to be as good a shooter as he became. He was really mediocre from the college 3PT line so who really knew? Honestly, he might only have become as good a shooter as he is now because of a shooting coach in Utah. Who knows if this happens in Boston.

Lance vs Bradley? Yeah, Lance is better now, but he is also considered a head case. Also, I'm not too sure if Lance would be considered better right now if it weren't for Bradley's injuries. It's not like Bradley was a bad pick at all. That's still a very, very good pick, and I don't mind having him over Lance to this day.

I read a later post of yours, and you mentioned how Al Jefferson, Delonte, and Kevin Martin would have been a hell of a draft, and yes, I agree, it would have been, but it speaks to my point that I think you are way too focused on Ainge hitting a home run on every single pick. Jefferson, Delonte, and Tony Allen is still a pretty incredible draft regardless of Martin vs Allen. Why harp on such a minor thing?

There has been plenty of articles written judging GM's drafting ability based on statistical analysis and draft position, and Ainge almost always ranks out in the top 5 at worst. You are being far too nitpicky.

No, no, you're right.  Like I said in another post, this is probably nothing more than beginner's luck, which is also why it's so frustrating.  I agree that KO is much better than THJ, but that wasn't what I was referring to.  I was saying that, without trades, at #16, with both Olynyk and the Greek Freak off the board :'(, THJ was the bpa, imo.  I never factored in trades, I was going by original draft position for a reason, and, considering how mediocre that draft has shown to be, wouldn't THJ have been a good selection?

Also, the reason why I've made such a big deal about Wesley Matthews is because that guy could have been for us in 09-10 what Posey was in 07-08.  His size, strength, toughness, jump shot, and ability to get to the line would have made for a huge upgrade over Tony Allen, who only bests Matthews athletically.  Besides that, TA is an offensive liability.  Who would you rather have, an awesome two-way player, or a defensive specialist who lacks the ability to think, pass, dribble, and especially shoot.  That's my point, and I really don't think that that's unreasonable.  Granted, it's extremely rare for guys of Matthews' caliber to drop to 57, so when it happens, you've got to take him, but I guess that that's just me.

  TA has his flaws but you're significantly underestimating how well he played for us in the 2010 playoffs. I don't think what you gain in offense would likely be more valuable than fairly smothering defense on players like Wade, LeBron and Kobe.

Finally, in regards to the 2004 draft, I forgot to mention that, although Ainge took Big Al (thank god lol), the player he really wanted was Robert Swift.  Yikes.  In that sense, then, Seattle might have saved Danny as an executive, because the difference between coming away with Jefferson, Delonte, and TA versus a draft of Swift, Delonte, and TA is quite noticeable. 

   We don't know for sure whether Danny would have taken Al or Swift. But even with Swift, it's hard to say the player he'd have been without all the injuries. Seattle was pretty high on him as their center of the future early in his career.