Poll: Celtics haven't drafted many good centers under Ainge. Why?

[obnoxiousmime]

I was just wondering why the Celtics track record of drafting centers has been lackluster under Ainge. Besides Perkins, I can't think of a true center they took that had a successful career, and even his skill level is debatable, or at least his third and most recent contract is.

Personally I think it's primarily a case of their draft position. They haven't picked in the lottery often under Ainge and that's where more of the good centers are. Still, you'd think after a decade plus of drafting they would have unearthed more talent at the position regardless of draft position. Or, they could have traded up (does Olynyk count as a center?).

You could also argue reason 5 a little during the contention years. Ainge seemed less likely to take total projects at the time and preferred players with a couple years of college seasoning at least. Before those years he wasn't shy in taking high school players (Jefferson, Green, Perkins), though the new age limit certainly affected things. I'm curious how many one-and-done college guys he's taken since the rule went into place. Rondo counts, but he was taken when they were sucking. Personally I think this was a mistake if true. You should always take whoever will be the best down the road. The more you start taking guys with lower ceilings but who are deemed more "ready," the more your team will just end up being mediocre down the line. Not to mention, the guy could be a bust anyway.

What do you guys think?

[D.o.s.]

I voted for 'Combination of various factors.' Centers are rare, Ainge doesn't seem very excited about developing them, and we haven't had very solid draft position for getting anyone who could stick.

[Rondo9]

I consider Big Al a center rather than a power forward.

[wdleehi]

He drafted two. 


How many good C have there been drafted after he drafted?  How many of those C were the better prospect then he picked? 

What was the team's need or direction at that point?

[aingeforthree]

I don't think it's a true statement & isn't real fair to Ainge or the organization.  It's been a combination of things....

1) Draft Slot/Position
2) He drafted two legit bigs almost right after he took over....Perkins and Jefferson
3) NBA Center talent, or big man talent in general is rare in this league
4) You generally need a top pick to nab a great big, & Ainge has rarely seen top picks or great lottery positions since he took over.

[D.o.s.]

He drafted two. 


How many good C have there been drafted after he drafted?  How many of those C were the better prospect then he picked? 

What was the team's need or direction at that point?

The first example that comes to mind was skipping DeAndre Jordan for J.R. Giddens.

[wdleehi]

He drafted two. 


How many good C have there been drafted after he drafted?  How many of those C were the better prospect then he picked? 

What was the team's need or direction at that point?

The first example that comes to mind was skipping DeAndre Jordan for J.R. Giddens.

It was a terrible pick. 


But what was the Celtics needs that offseason?

[mgent]

Because they weren't available to him.  It's not like he has all these choices and is going with guards/PFs instead.  There were only 2 Centers picked in the entire first round last year (I think).

Where Danny is typically picking, he's looking for guys with higher-level talent but who have slipped because they're undersized or something like that.  Centers don't really slip, even with huge red flags like Embiid.  Supply and demand and whatnot.

[mgent]

He drafted two. 


How many good C have there been drafted after he drafted?  How many of those C were the better prospect then he picked? 

What was the team's need or direction at that point?

The first example that comes to mind was skipping DeAndre Jordan for J.R. Giddens.

I think he also picked Semih Erden that year, who actually had one of the most successful careers of all time from #60.

[Celtics4ever]

I think guys know best what positions they played.  Also, he has not had the option, Jefferson and Perk were drafted and developed both have flaws that compromise them as top flight centers.   But if you put KP 's strength and  defense and AJ's offense, health and rebounding you'd have something.

But we have never been in place to draft a monster but OI hope this is the year we get our man.   He did let DeAndre Jordan slip but Ainge's is an above average drafter I feel.   Can't win them all, after all.

[obnoxiousmime]

I voted for 'Combination of various factors.' Centers are rare, Ainge doesn't seem very excited about developing them, and we haven't had very solid draft position for getting anyone who could stick.

I think that's true, though it's an important position and at some point you have to invest in it, project or not, early pick or not. I wonder if his standards for the position are too high (insert Fab Melo joke here) and he just doesn't want to bother with projects who have high stiff potential.

OK, it's clear I'm going to have to look at every draft so here goes:

2003: Banks and Perkins, no center of note besides ZaZa Pachulia in the 2nd round.
2004: Jefferson, West, and Allen. This was the year of the oft-rumored Robert Swift fascination, who ended up being a bust. Anderson Varejao ended up being a nice pick as 31st pick overall, 2nd round.
2005: Gerald Green. Mahimni goes 28th overall. Ainge takes Orien Greene and Gomes over Marcin Gortat and Amir Johnson in 2nd round (he could also be a PF, but I remember he was a lauded "project" big man so mentioning him here).
2006: Ainge trades down to take Rajon Rondo. This was a pretty bad draft overall, actually the Celtics ended up with some of the noted failures from this year such as Shelden Williams (5th) and Patrick O'Bryant (9th).
2007: Traded pick (Jeff Green) for Ray Allen. Obviously this deal was necessary for the Garnett deal so no complaints here, though Joakim Noah would obviously have been a great Celtic! In the 2nd round they take Pruitt and Big Baby. 4 picks before Pruitt, Splitter was taken by the Spurs, and way down in the 2nd round Marc Gasol was taken.
2008: The first post Garnett draft. Celtics memorably take bust JR Giddens with Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, and Omer Asik taken 1, 4, and 5 picks later (this is probably the biggest obvious miss).
2009: No first rounder here, this pick was traded to the Wolves. They take Lester Hudson late in the 2nd.
2010: Avery Bradley 19th overall (right after Blesode, ouch!) and Harangody in the 2nd. No good centers picked around there.
2011: Celtics trade back slightly to take JaJuan Johnson and E'Twuan (sp?) Moore in the 2nd. No real obvious good center picks this year either.
2012: Celtics take Sullinger and Fab Melo 21 and 22nd and Kris Joseph in the 2nd round. Miles Plumlee only C of note, taken 26th overall.
2013: Celtics trade up to take Kelly Olynyk and get Colton Iverson in the 2nd. Some centers of note are Gorgui Dieng and Mason Plumlee (21st and 22nd overall, respectively).
2014: Celtics take Smart 6th and Young 17th. Would they have taken Jusuf Nuric if he hadn't gone 16th? Did they ever consider Clint Capela at 17th (he went 25th).

Looking at this list, my first conclusion is that besides a few exceptions there weren't a host of options where they were picking. My second conclusion is that the Celtics really, really hate foreign players for some reason, but that's a subject for another post. The fact that they never taken foreign players who are often the kind of hidden gems you need to take later in the draft bothers me to no end. This past draft was the same, with the Celtics not seeming to show much interest in Nuric, Capela, or Walter Tavares. Not saying those guys are any good, but other teams have successfully mined the foreign leagues for talent in the past 15 years and the Celtics seem allergic to it. Is it all Jerome Moiso's fault?

[Tr1boy]

He drafted Big Al and Perkins.

It's a little sad that for the 2013 draft he missed out on Gobert (should of bought a 2nd 1st).  He is looking like an anthony davis light (in the tourney)

[slamtheking]

the only 2 centers I think could have been reasonable picks where Danny was drafting that he bypassed were Jordan, as someone else mentioned, and Dieng.  KO instead of Dieng is still debatable at this point since they've only played one year but I really wanted Dieng in that draft.

other than that, I don't really see other options that Danny had where he could have picked a center, didn't, ant that center turned out to be a good player.

He's taken Melo, who almost all here knew would be a bust but he took a shot.  Semih wasn't half bad, especially for the 60th pick.  He took a shot on Iverson who unfortunately looked pretty bad in summer league this year. 

this year's draft is hard to critique for not picking centers when he was taking the BPA available at his picks. 

sincerely hoping that next year he'll have a top pick that allows him a shot at Okafor or Towns

[aingeforthree]

I voted for 'Combination of various factors.' Centers are rare, Ainge doesn't seem very excited about developing them, and we haven't had very solid draft position for getting anyone who could stick.

I think that's true, though it's an important position and at some point you have to invest in it, project or not, early pick or not. I wonder if his standards for the position are too high (insert Fab Melo joke here) and he just doesn't want to bother with projects who have high stiff potential.

OK, it's clear I'm going to have to look at every draft so here goes:

2003: Banks and Perkins, no center of note besides ZaZa Pachulia in the 2nd round.
2004: Jefferson, West, and Allen. This was the year of the oft-rumored Robert Swift fascination, who ended up being a bust. Anderson Varejao ended up being a nice pick as 31st pick overall, 2nd round.
2005: Gerald Green. Mahimni goes 28th overall. Ainge takes Orien Greene and Gomes over Marcin Gortat and Amir Johnson in 2nd round (he could also be a PF, but I remember he was a lauded "project" big man so mentioning him here).
2006: Ainge trades down to take Rajon Rondo. This was a pretty bad draft overall, actually the Celtics ended up with some of the noted failures from this year such as Shelden Williams (5th) and Patrick O'Bryant (9th).
2007: Traded pick (Jeff Green) for Ray Allen. Obviously this deal was necessary for the Garnett deal so no complaints here, though Joakim Noah would obviously have been a great Celtic! In the 2nd round they take Pruitt and Big Baby. 4 picks before Pruitt, Splitter was taken by the Spurs, and way down in the 2nd round Marc Gasol was taken.
2008: The first post Garnett draft. Celtics memorably take bust JR Giddens with Pekovic, DeAndre Jordan, and Omer Asik taken 1, 4, and 5 picks later (this is probably the biggest obvious miss).
2009: No first rounder here, this pick was traded to the Wolves. They take Lester Hudson late in the 2nd.
2010: Avery Bradley 19th overall (right after Blesode, ouch!) and Harangody in the 2nd. No good centers picked around there.
2011: Celtics trade back slightly to take JaJuan Johnson and E'Twuan (sp?) Moore in the 2nd. No real obvious good center picks this year either.
2012: Celtics take Sullinger and Fab Melo 21 and 22nd and Kris Joseph in the 2nd round. Miles Plumlee only C of note, taken 26th overall.
2013: Celtics trade up to take Kelly Olynyk and get Colton Iverson in the 2nd. Some centers of note are Gorgui Dieng and Mason Plumlee (21st and 22nd overall, respectively).
2014: Celtics take Smart 6th and Young 17th. Would they have taken Jusuf Nuric if he hadn't gone 16th? Did they ever consider Clint Capela at 17th (he went 25th).

Looking at this list, my first conclusion is that besides a few exceptions there weren't a host of options where they were picking. My second conclusion is that the Celtics really, really hate foreign players for some reason, but that's a subject for another post. The fact that they never taken foreign players who are often the kind of hidden gems you need to take later in the draft bothers me to no end. This past draft was the same, with the Celtics not seeming to show much interest in Nuric, Capela, or Walter Tavares. Not saying those guys are any good, but other teams have successfully mined the foreign leagues for talent in the past 15 years and the Celtics seem allergic to it. Is it all Jerome Moiso's fault?

I don't think it's a matter of hate.  I think its more the fact that Foreign players are extremely difficult to scout.  Competition, level of play, minutes per game, etc.  Its extremely tough to gauge when sometimes the Euro leagues/games aren't up to snuff when compared to NCAA basketball.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

I voted "None of the Above." The real reason is because Danny was a combo guard, so that's what he knows best.