A Realistic Marcus Smart Comparison

[Beat LA]

I know, I know, "realistic," and, "celticsblog," don't exactly go hand in hand .  We've all been guilty of over-hyping players and setting unrealistic expectations for guys over the years, so I thought of a much more realistic comparison for Smart.  No, he's not Westbrook, DJ (I said that one.  Yeah...I'm as guilty as anyone else on here haha), or Lance Stephenson, but could he possibly be a shorter, less-athletic version of Iman Shumpert?  Is that reasonable?

It's reasonable, but he seems to/should have more point guard skills than Shump.

You'd think that, and yet, Shumpert was a pg/sg in college, so he does actually have at least pretty good play-making skills.

[Beat LA]

I like the Kyle Lowry comparison I heard from our own member Kane.

Tp.

I think a little bit better version of Lowry is realistic and probably where he ends up. I saw tyreke as a floor. I'm optimistic for a more dedicated and maybe less flashy version of baron Davis.

Like baron he is coming into the league with lots of criticism about his shot. However also like baron he's a flat out bullie. He physically overpowers players at his position and he can get to the basket  consistently without being overly explosive.

Scouting report of b diddy from 1999 before the draft. Honestly it's identical to smart.

Baron Davis - UCLA. 6'2" 190. Baron has the strongest will that I've seen recently in college basketball. He is very emotional, which can go either way. Sometimes he'll carry a team on his back, simply refusing to lose, - and sometimes he'll get carried away and lose his cool (Alonzo style). That having been said, he is still a rare find because he is a point guard that can handle and push the tempo like Jason Kidd. Baron also moves well without the ball. His jumper is suspect. He is a 60% free throw shooter that shot 34% from beyond the college arc. I question his ability to hit the NBA three. Had ACL surgery in March `98. It is worth repeating that Baron has a super-super strong will. I wouldn't rule out anything with Davis, either good or bad because he's so stubborn.

http://www.basslinespin.com/nbadraftreport.htm

Cool link on the 1999 draft. (Steve Francis, Lamar odom, Elton brand, Shawn Marion, artest, jet, rip etc.)

Smart is nowhere near the playmaker that Davis was, but in terms of build, yeah, okay, I can see the resemblance, except for the fact that Smart actually plays defense lol, but their respective competitive wills, at least by that scouting report, do seem to be very similar.

[Beat LA]

Joe Dumars
Tyreke Evans

You know, I never even thought of Tyreke Evans, but I can definitely see similarities there, so TP.  Now, are we talking about the Tyreke Evans who won rookie of the year, or his play since, because he's kind of disappointed, especially after averaging 20, 5, and 5 in his first campaign.  Smart has a better jumper, though, at least form-wise, but you've lost me on the Dumars comparison.  Perhaps if you threw Dumars, Evans, and a bit of crazy competitive fire lol into a blender you'd get Smart, but I really don't know.  Dumars was a phenomenal shooter as a college player, his demeanor is completely different to that of Smart, and he's smaller than Marcus, although, in terms of having that extremely strong base that Joe had, I can see where you're coming from, but remember, I was trying to be realistic lol

[Beat LA]

TP mostly because when I see the word "realistic" in a post title I think the content will be anything but that.

I would rate this as "pessimistic" unless you're talking about pre-injury Shumpert, who was a pretty hot asset at one point.

Fair enough, poopsie   I'm giving you a TP for your name haha. 

Having said that, I can be pessimistic, but I do love Shumpert as a player.  He's still been great after the surgery, imo, and I would certainly rather have him than Bradley, because at least Shumpert can dribble and pass lol, plus, his size means gives him a lot more flexibility defensively, imo, being able to guard 1-3 instead of 1-2, and 2 is pushing it sometimes because of AB's size, even though that's not his fault.

[Boris Badenov]

There are no comparisons and I can prove it:

http://cbbref.com/tiny/xfPOY

[Beat LA]

Poor man's James Harden offensively with much better defense. I say this because of their similar shot selection on offense. It's pretty uncommon to see two players rely on 3PT shooting and driving to the rim with barely anything in-between. Neither player relies on explosive athleticism to drive to the rim. They're either crafty or bull their way through. The difference is James Harden was a much better 3PT shooter in college (5% better), and this is why I'm primarily saying he'll be a poor man's version. Remains to be seen how Smart adjusts to NBA length and whether his 3PT shot gets better or not, but stylistically I feel comfortable saying Harden.

Smart took 42% of his FGA from the 3PT line in college, while Harden has been hovering around 40% 3PAr (not 3PT%) in the NBA. Smart had a 65% FTr (not FT%) in college while Harden had a 60% FTr in college. Smart took around 45% of his FGA at the rim (meaning ~87% of his FGA were either at the rim or the 3PT line; barely anything in-between) while Harden takes about 30-35% of his FGA at the rim in the NBA (not sure about college) totaling to about 70-75% of his FGA coming from either the rim or the 3PT line.

Both are above average playmakers that can run your offense (though I don't like what Harden has become in Houston honestly). OKC relied on Harden to be their point guard down the stretch because of how erratic Westbrook can be.

I think Baron Davis is a good comparison overall (big point guard, lots of 3s, shaky shot selection, great defense, etc), but he didn't get to the FT line as much as Smart projects to. Smart's foul drawing ability is one of his biggest pluses. That and his 3PT chucking is what leans me to more of a Harden comparison (for offense). Most 3PT chuckers (and I mean this in the best of ways) do not drive to the rim and draw fouls as much as Harden and Smart do.

Harden is a great shooter, though.  You also lost me when you mentioned great defense and Baron Davis in the same sentence haha  

Still, though, Harden, Wade, Evans, Dumars?  Come on, guys, the whole point of this thread was to be realistic lol

[Beat LA]

There are no comparisons and I can prove it:

http://cbbref.com/tiny/xfPOY

Man, you're going all out with those stats, lol, many of whom I'm not familiar with, and I'm a stat guy (kind of, haha.).  TP for the data, although I'm not sure if being so unique is always a good thing, statistically, because if can lead people to say that he's one of a kind, and then that same dude will turn out to be a one of a kind dud lol, unfortunately.

I've seen comparisons to Marcus Banks being made, but I don't understand those.  Could someone possibly clarify?  I saw Marcus a lot, unfortunately lol, when he was here, and he wasn't anywhere near the defender or playmaker that Smart is NOW.  From my vantage point, the only similarities are a lack of shooting and being of such a strong build, although Banks was shorter, obviously.

[DarkAzcura]

Poor man's James Harden offensively with much better defense. I say this because of their similar shot selection on offense. It's pretty uncommon to see two players rely on 3PT shooting and driving to the rim with barely anything in-between. Neither player relies on explosive athleticism to drive to the rim. They're either crafty or bull their way through. The difference is James Harden was a much better 3PT shooter in college (5% better), and this is why I'm primarily saying he'll be a poor man's version. Remains to be seen how Smart adjusts to NBA length and whether his 3PT shot gets better or not, but stylistically I feel comfortable saying Harden.

Smart took 42% of his FGA from the 3PT line in college, while Harden has been hovering around 40% 3PAr (not 3PT%) in the NBA. Smart had a 65% FTr (not FT%) in college while Harden had a 60% FTr in college. Smart took around 45% of his FGA at the rim (meaning ~87% of his FGA were either at the rim or the 3PT line; barely anything in-between) while Harden takes about 30-35% of his FGA at the rim in the NBA (not sure about college) totaling to about 70-75% of his FGA coming from either the rim or the 3PT line.

Both are above average playmakers that can run your offense (though I don't like what Harden has become in Houston honestly). OKC relied on Harden to be their point guard down the stretch because of how erratic Westbrook can be.

I think Baron Davis is a good comparison overall (big point guard, lots of 3s, shaky shot selection, great defense, etc), but he didn't get to the FT line as much as Smart projects to. Smart's foul drawing ability is one of his biggest pluses. That and his 3PT chucking is what leans me to more of a Harden comparison (for offense). Most 3PT chuckers (and I mean this in the best of ways) do not drive to the rim and draw fouls as much as Harden and Smart do.

Harden is a great shooter, though.  You also lost me when you mentioned great defense and Baron Davis in the same sentence haha  

Still, though, Harden, Wade, Evans, Dumars?  Come on, guys, the whole point of this thread was to be realistic lol

I acknowledged Harden was and is a much better shooter. That's exactly why I said poor man's version! Drawing fouls at Smart's rate isn't anything to mess around with. His offensive ceiling/efficiency potential is very high because of it.

Worst case for me..if Smart has trouble adjusting to NBA length and doesn't improve his shooting whatsoever, he'll be a 40/30/75 player with a 50% FTr (drops because of his trouble with NBA length) and 40% 3Pr. With 10 FGA, that'd put him at roughly 13 PPG, which isn't that great.

If Smart does adjust to NBA length and continues his success at the FT line and foul drawing, I'd say it's reasonable for him to bring those percentages up to 45/33/75. If his FTr is 60% (was 65% in college) and 3Pr is 40%, he'll average 17 PPG on 12 FGA, which is pretty good. Based on style and shot zones, that is a poor man's Harden on offense. Reasonable. I could see 17/6/6 with first team all defense eventually. Only way I could see him hitting 20 PPG is if his shot improves a lot in a way I could not fairly project.

My James Harden and Marcus Smart comparison was based entirely on their splits of where they take their shots. Both take a ton of 3s and draw a ton of fouls at the rim while barely taking any mid-range shots. They are very similar in that respect and equally as unique relative to their peers.

When someone compares a player to another player, it's not always a direct quality comparison. It's usually a comparison of style and nothing more.

And yes, Baron Davis was very, very good at defense early in his career.

[Beat LA]

I actually see Smart as a Bledsoe type of player with a stronger build, but less quickness/athleticism. I think Bledsoe has great ball handling skills, but hes not a PG. Hes a SG just like Westbrook.

I thought Bledsoe as well but Marcus has some PG skills.  Bledsoe is a pretty strong guy too.

A bigger Bledsoe without the knee issues would be AWESOME, but Bledsoe is a pretty good shooter, both from midrange and 3-pt territory.  They can both take over a game on both ends, especially by being bulls in china shops , so I like that comparison, or at least, I'd love Smart to turn into Bledsoe.  Bledsoe may not be Rondo or CP3, but he is a point guard, imo.  Westbrook, however, is not, and it's not even close.  They should put Reggie Jackson at the point and slide Russell over to the 2-spot.

[Beat LA]

Poor man's James Harden offensively with much better defense. I say this because of their similar shot selection on offense. It's pretty uncommon to see two players rely on 3PT shooting and driving to the rim with barely anything in-between. Neither player relies on explosive athleticism to drive to the rim. They're either crafty or bull their way through. The difference is James Harden was a much better 3PT shooter in college (5% better), and this is why I'm primarily saying he'll be a poor man's version. Remains to be seen how Smart adjusts to NBA length and whether his 3PT shot gets better or not, but stylistically I feel comfortable saying Harden.

Smart took 42% of his FGA from the 3PT line in college, while Harden has been hovering around 40% 3PAr (not 3PT%) in the NBA. Smart had a 65% FTr (not FT%) in college while Harden had a 60% FTr in college. Smart took around 45% of his FGA at the rim (meaning ~87% of his FGA were either at the rim or the 3PT line; barely anything in-between) while Harden takes about 30-35% of his FGA at the rim in the NBA (not sure about college) totaling to about 70-75% of his FGA coming from either the rim or the 3PT line.

Both are above average playmakers that can run your offense (though I don't like what Harden has become in Houston honestly). OKC relied on Harden to be their point guard down the stretch because of how erratic Westbrook can be.

I think Baron Davis is a good comparison overall (big point guard, lots of 3s, shaky shot selection, great defense, etc), but he didn't get to the FT line as much as Smart projects to. Smart's foul drawing ability is one of his biggest pluses. That and his 3PT chucking is what leans me to more of a Harden comparison (for offense). Most 3PT chuckers (and I mean this in the best of ways) do not drive to the rim and draw fouls as much as Harden and Smart do.

Harden is a great shooter, though.  You also lost me when you mentioned great defense and Baron Davis in the same sentence haha  

Still, though, Harden, Wade, Evans, Dumars?  Come on, guys, the whole point of this thread was to be realistic lol

I acknowledged Harden was and is a much better shooter. That's exactly why I said poor man's version! Drawing fouls at Smart's rate isn't anything to mess around with. His offensive ceiling/efficiency potential is very high because of it.

Worst case for me..if Smart has trouble adjusting to NBA length and doesn't improve his shooting whatsoever, he'll be a 40/30/75 player with a 50% FTr (drops because of his trouble with NBA length) and 40% 3Pr. With 10 FGA, that'd put him at roughly 13 PPG, which isn't that great.

If Smart does adjust to NBA length and continues his success at the FT line and foul drawing, I'd say it's reasonable for him to bring those percentages up to 45/33/75. If his FTr is 60% (was 65% in college) and 3Pr is 40%, he'll average 17 PPG on 12 FGA, which is pretty good. Based on style and shot zones, that is a poor man's Harden on offense. Reasonable. I could see 17/6/6 with first team all defense eventually. Only way I could see him hitting 20 PPG is if his shot improves a lot in a way I could not fairly project.

And yes, Baron Davis was very, very good at defense early in his career.

True.  Sorry about that, I was writing so much so quickly that that important detail must have temporarily slipped my mind.  I love his ability to get to the line, too - I'm not undervaluing that skill in any way, believe me.  I'll have to take your word for it in regards to Baron Davis, because I only started watching 10 years ago (wow ), so I obviously missed the B-Diddy or Boom Dizzle who actually played defense haha

[DarkAzcura]

Poor man's James Harden offensively with much better defense. I say this because of their similar shot selection on offense. It's pretty uncommon to see two players rely on 3PT shooting and driving to the rim with barely anything in-between. Neither player relies on explosive athleticism to drive to the rim. They're either crafty or bull their way through. The difference is James Harden was a much better 3PT shooter in college (5% better), and this is why I'm primarily saying he'll be a poor man's version. Remains to be seen how Smart adjusts to NBA length and whether his 3PT shot gets better or not, but stylistically I feel comfortable saying Harden.

Smart took 42% of his FGA from the 3PT line in college, while Harden has been hovering around 40% 3PAr (not 3PT%) in the NBA. Smart had a 65% FTr (not FT%) in college while Harden had a 60% FTr in college. Smart took around 45% of his FGA at the rim (meaning ~87% of his FGA were either at the rim or the 3PT line; barely anything in-between) while Harden takes about 30-35% of his FGA at the rim in the NBA (not sure about college) totaling to about 70-75% of his FGA coming from either the rim or the 3PT line.

Both are above average playmakers that can run your offense (though I don't like what Harden has become in Houston honestly). OKC relied on Harden to be their point guard down the stretch because of how erratic Westbrook can be.

I think Baron Davis is a good comparison overall (big point guard, lots of 3s, shaky shot selection, great defense, etc), but he didn't get to the FT line as much as Smart projects to. Smart's foul drawing ability is one of his biggest pluses. That and his 3PT chucking is what leans me to more of a Harden comparison (for offense). Most 3PT chuckers (and I mean this in the best of ways) do not drive to the rim and draw fouls as much as Harden and Smart do.

Harden is a great shooter, though.  You also lost me when you mentioned great defense and Baron Davis in the same sentence haha  

Still, though, Harden, Wade, Evans, Dumars?  Come on, guys, the whole point of this thread was to be realistic lol

I acknowledged Harden was and is a much better shooter. That's exactly why I said poor man's version! Drawing fouls at Smart's rate isn't anything to mess around with. His offensive ceiling/efficiency potential is very high because of it.

Worst case for me..if Smart has trouble adjusting to NBA length and doesn't improve his shooting whatsoever, he'll be a 40/30/75 player with a 50% FTr (drops because of his trouble with NBA length) and 40% 3Pr. With 10 FGA, that'd put him at roughly 13 PPG, which isn't that great.

If Smart does adjust to NBA length and continues his success at the FT line and foul drawing, I'd say it's reasonable for him to bring those percentages up to 45/33/75. If his FTr is 60% (was 65% in college) and 3Pr is 40%, he'll average 17 PPG on 12 FGA, which is pretty good. Based on style and shot zones, that is a poor man's Harden on offense. Reasonable. I could see 17/6/6 with first team all defense eventually. Only way I could see him hitting 20 PPG is if his shot improves a lot in a way I could not fairly project.

And yes, Baron Davis was very, very good at defense early in his career.

True.  Sorry about that, I was writing so much so quickly that that important detail must have temporarily slipped my mind.  I love his ability to get to the line, too - I'm not undervaluing that skill in any way, believe me.  I'll have to take your word for it in regards to Baron Davis, because I only started watching 10 years ago (wow ), so I obviously missed the B-Diddy or Boom Dizzle who actually played defense haha

Yep, but Davis was actually known for playing defense on GSW's squad when he wanted to (one of those guys). He was really good on defense overall when he was with the Hornets, though.

Anyway, shorter to the point. Smart for me, worst case:

12 PPG on 40/30/75 shooting (10 FGA) with 40% 3Pr and 40% FTr

Best case as he stands now (tough to project if he becomes a much better shooter so this could turn out better for all I know):

17-18 PPG on 45/33/75 shooting (12 FGA) with 40% 3Pr and 55-60% FTr

I think his rebounding, passing, and defense will be as advertised no matter what. It's really his scoring ability that is in question..basically whether he adjusts or not, which is obviously up in the air until he actually steps on the NBA court and gets a couple seasons under his belt.

Because of his ability to draw fouls, I may be selling him short (could be 20+ PPG for all I know), but I'm trying to be reasonable. 

EDIT: One thing I want to say...it's always good to be realistic and temper expectations, but we don't have to be overly pessimistic with this prospect, imo. This is the Celtics' first blue chip prospect since Paul Pierce (Al Jefferson and Rondo weren't considered ones at the draft). This isn't like Tony Allen, Delonte, Bradley, etc. We're allowed to be a little more optimistic with our predictions for a top 6 pick in what is supposedly one of the best drafts over the last 20 years (remains to be seen, but we've all seen the hype). Years of drafting out of the top 15-20 have obviously made us more cautious with draft picks. Top 5-7 picks in strong drafts are usually compared to all stars and considered realistic predictions. That's the benefit of drafting there in the first place! The talent and potential!

[rondohondo]

tyreke evans/tony allen/ lance stephenson mix

[Beat LA]

tyreke evans/tony allen/ lance stephenson mix

Dear god I hope not lol

[rondohondo]

tyreke evans/tony allen/ lance stephenson mix

Dear god I hope not lol

don't like elite defense ?

[fitzhickey]

tyreke evans/tony allen/ lance stephenson mix

Dear god I hope not lol

don't like elite defense ?

Maybe it's crazy athleticism