Author Topic: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction  (Read 87940 times)

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Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #210 on: December 12, 2014, 03:02:33 PM »

Offline TwinTower14

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Has  Shield ever won 17, 18 games before?? Lester has.

Lester has won more than 16 games once, in 2010.  Since then, he's won 15, 9, 15, 16.  Shields has won 58 games over the same time frame, or three more than Lester.

Shields also has a career 3.72 ERA.  Lester is at 3.58. 

The only major difference between the two is in terms of playoff performance, where Lester has been great and Shields has been poor.  That's important, but I'm not sure that it's so important to make Lester $8 - $10 million better per year.

What about Lesters ability to stop a losing streak almost single handedly also?

Also you can't really consider his true W-L 2 out of the last 3 season with the way last place, first place, last place redsox have been playing

You keep talking about W's, Lester was 9-14 two years ago, with an ERA that approached 5.  I like Lester, very good pitcher.  Him and Shields are in the same ball park, however Lester's postseason performances give him the nod....

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #211 on: December 12, 2014, 03:12:18 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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Fangraphs has Shields as the 10th best pitcher over the last four years and he hasn't shown any signs of regression.  He'll get his $20 million per year from somebody for 4 or 5 years.  I'm skeptical that it will be from Boston.  The Dodgers and the Giants were willing to pay a lot more for Lester than the Red Sox were.  I don't know why that wouldn't be true of Shields as well.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2014&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #212 on: December 12, 2014, 03:14:14 PM »

Offline hpantazo

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Why are we so frugal when it comes to signing pitchers? It's not like we are a small market, and we sure as heck spent money on hitters.

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #213 on: December 12, 2014, 03:18:19 PM »

Online Donoghus

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Why are we so frugal when it comes to signing pitchers? It's not like we are a small market, and we sure as heck spent money on hitters.

I think its the over 30 aspect of the pitchers that concerns the Sox organization.  Dishing out huge, long term deals to the type.  They just seem against it.


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Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #214 on: December 12, 2014, 03:20:08 PM »

Offline TwinTower14

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Why are we so frugal when it comes to signing pitchers? It's not like we are a small market, and we sure as heck spent money on hitters.

the bust rate on pitchers is so high, especially ones in their 30's...Look at Verlander, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia etc...

Kershaw is only the guy that is worth his number right now but he is only 26 years old...

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #215 on: December 12, 2014, 03:21:42 PM »

Offline TwinTower14

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If Porcello puts together a nice season at the age of 26, the Sox will pay him. 

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #216 on: December 12, 2014, 03:27:58 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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If Porcello puts together a nice season at the age of 26, the Sox will pay him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to lock him up before the season starts.  Since he lives in Vermont, he might be interested.

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #217 on: December 12, 2014, 03:33:32 PM »

Offline gpap

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Maybe the Sox picked up Miley to package him in a deal for Hamels?

Also, couldn't the Sox play Castillo at SS if they had to include Bogearts?

I think right now Hamels is the most likely option.

I find it hard to believe the Sox will go into the season without a legit ace.

Castillo can't play SS, he is an outfielder and a good one.  If Xander has to go I bet it would be a one year filler SS or Deven Marrero who is a defensive specialists.  I doubt they move Xander, they sent him to live with Pedey this off-season and workout at API in Arizona, they are invested in the kid.  It was rumored today that the Phills wants Joe Kelly, Owens, Marrero and Garin C.  Which is fine by me....

Really?

Is there a link to that?

If so, that would kinda be a steal for the Sox. I thought for sure they would've wanted one of either Bogaerts, Betts or Swihart.

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #218 on: December 12, 2014, 03:37:22 PM »

Online Donoghus

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If Porcello puts together a nice season at the age of 26, the Sox will pay him.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to lock him up before the season starts.  Since he lives in Vermont, he might be interested.

I would be perfectly be fine that (if Porcello performs well) and would prefer that (which will come cheaper) than breaking the bank on Shields this offseason.


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Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #219 on: December 12, 2014, 03:37:31 PM »

Offline TwinTower14

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Maybe the Sox picked up Miley to package him in a deal for Hamels?

Also, couldn't the Sox play Castillo at SS if they had to include Bogearts?

I think right now Hamels is the most likely option.

I find it hard to believe the Sox will go into the season without a legit ace.



Castillo can't play SS, he is an outfielder and a good one.  If Xander has to go I bet it would be a one year filler SS or Deven Marrero who is a defensive specialists.  I doubt they move Xander, they sent him to live with Pedey this off-season and workout at API in Arizona, they are invested in the kid.  It was rumored today that the Phills wants Joe Kelly, Owens, Marrero and Garin C.  Which is fine by me....

Really?

Is there a link to that?

If so, that would kinda be a steal for the Sox. I thought for sure they would've wanted one of either Bogaerts, Betts or Swihart.

This guy Mario Pepen twitted it out earlier but I think it was shot down by several folks...

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #220 on: December 12, 2014, 04:22:02 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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Why are we so frugal when it comes to signing pitchers? It's not like we are a small market, and we sure as heck spent money on hitters.

the bust rate on pitchers is so high, especially ones in their 30's...Look at Verlander, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia etc...

Kershaw is only the guy that is worth his number right now but he is only 26 years old...

I just read an article in the Providence Journal and this quote speaks to your point. 

"By adjusted ERA+, for example, the five best pitchers in the game as recently as 2011 were Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee and Jered Weaver — followed by C.J. Wilson, Josh Beckett, Ricky Romero and CC Sabathia. Of those nine pitchers, only Kershaw projects as a healthy, effective, front-of-the-rotation starter next season. The others have faded into either mediocrity, injury or retirement."
http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/red-sox/content/20141212-red-sox-still-searching-for-an-ace-but-see-potential-stopper-in-porcello.ece


Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #221 on: December 12, 2014, 11:45:17 PM »

Offline Tr1boy

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Most pitchers start getting bad at around 32-33. Especially if you are a power pitcher. 
John Lackey known by many to be only mediocre, has had a very good career if you think about it.  Jamie Moyer had an amazing career if you think about it . Guys with good control, can throw at least 3 pitches for strikes and are relatively injury free.

Look at Jake Peavy. He is only 33, but really struggled with us before being traded. He managed to have a good ending with San Fran but had to try really hard. Don't think he will ever be the same again.

I consider Shields possibly able to pull another Lackey.  But you don't give him 20 million a year for Lackey like production.    After 2 seasons likely his production will go down and won't be able to pitch as deep into games.

It kind of sucks we don't have another Lester or even Bucholz young ace like pitcher to depend on currently. Though there is high hopes for Henry Owens to be that guy.

Redsox should not pay Shields 20 million a year deal for 4-5 years.  I would do it for 2 , but he wants a long deal.   

So bottom line is, just stay put i guess (most teams will not trade their ace or even #2). Don't have a good feeling about Hamel and looks like he is on his way down. Hope Porcello becomes ace material, Owens becomes ace material soon, Bucholz can regain form/stay healthy and/or our offense can carry this team.  Might have to pull a  "whitesox without a true ace" to try to win the world series this upcoming season

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #222 on: December 13, 2014, 07:08:50 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Most pitchers start getting bad at around 32-33. Especially if you are a power pitcher. 
John Lackey known by many to be only mediocre, has had a very good career if you think about it.  Jamie Moyer had an amazing career if you think about it . Guys with good control, can throw at least 3 pitches for strikes and are relatively injury free.

Look at Jake Peavy. He is only 33, but really struggled with us before being traded. He managed to have a good ending with San Fran but had to try really hard. Don't think he will ever be the same again.

I consider Shields possibly able to pull another Lackey.  But you don't give him 20 million a year for Lackey like production.    After 2 seasons likely his production will go down and won't be able to pitch as deep into games.

It kind of sucks we don't have another Lester or even Bucholz young ace like pitcher to depend on currently. Though there is high hopes for Henry Owens to be that guy.

Redsox should not pay Shields 20 million a year deal for 4-5 years.  I would do it for 2 , but he wants a long deal.   

So bottom line is, just stay put i guess (most teams will not trade their ace or even #2). Don't have a good feeling about Hamel and looks like he is on his way down. Hope Porcello becomes ace material, Owens becomes ace material soon, Bucholz can regain form/stay healthy and/or our offense can carry this team.  Might have to pull a  "whitesox without a true ace" to try to win the world series this upcoming season

Lester is only two years younger than Shields.


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Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #223 on: February 12, 2015, 05:35:00 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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I don't know why I torture myself, but I just listened to 10 minutes of Felger discuss the idea of trading Betts in a package for Hamels as a no brainer.  To my logic it's also a no brainer, though in the other direction as I would never move Betts for a 31 year old due 96 mil(buyout for 6 mil in '19) over the next four years.

The idiocy of it to me is that Felger treats Betts' 50 game sample last year as being inconclusive, like it's tantamount to Pedro Ciriaco's 3 hot weeks he had a few years ago. The difference of course is that Betts mashed at every level in the minors in '13 and '14 while being one of the youngest players at those levels. Could he flame out? I suppose, but he realistically projects to be an all star caliber player and is every bit as safe a pick to be productive over the next several years as Hamels or any pitcher does.

Re: 2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction
« Reply #224 on: February 17, 2015, 04:50:24 PM »

Offline Nerf DPOY

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So it looks like Sandoval came into camp meaning business.



I know, I know he's always been a wad but he even looks fat for a softball player.