Author Topic: Celtics season by starting line ups  (Read 694 times)

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Celtics season by starting line ups
« on: September 01, 2014, 12:55:59 PM »

Offline Dennis_D

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mmmmm recently had a post that provoked a lot of thoughts for me. It had a lot of good stuff, a small piece of which is:
As far as our starters and top rotation bigs go:
C - Zeller/Olynyk/Sully
PF - Sully/Olynyk
SF - Green
SG - Bradley
PG - Rondo
is, on paper (and if healthy), far superior to what we put on the floor last year.

Our top 5-man units last year were seriously awful by comparison.   Seriously, here are the two 5-man units that we played the MOST last year:
* Bradley-Crawford-Green-Bass-Sullinger (372.5 minutes)
* Rondo-Bayless-Green-Bass-Humphries (124.2 minutes)

That go me thinking about why those were the top 5-man units for the Celtics. I pulled the starting units for each games and then grouped them together to try to see trends.

Bradley-Wallace-Green-Bass-Faverani (0-4)
Wallace quickly worked himself out of the starting lineup

Bradley-Crawford-Green with a search for a PF/C combination(4-6)
Bass-Faveroni for  4 games
Bass-Olynyk for 4 games
Sullinger-Olynyk for 2 games

Bradley-Crawford-Green-Bass-Sullinger (9-12)
Bass and Sullinger earned the starting spots at the big positions. That was the only part of the season where the starting line up was stable

Humprhies earns the starting C spot (0-4)
Bass starts three games, Sullinger starts one. Crawford-Bradley-Green for the other spots

Crawford traded, Pressey starts (1-0)
Crawford traded as Rondo gets close to returning. Pressey takes over Crawford's spot in the starting line up until Rondo returns. Pressey-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Humphries

Rondo returns, Sullinger starting PF (1-2)
Rondo-Bradley-Green-Sullinger-Humphries

Bradely is injured, Wallace starts for Bradley, Rondo occasionally out, bigs constantly changing (5-10)
Line ups are:
Pressey-Wallace-Green-Sullinger-Humphries - 1 game
Rondo-Wallace-Green-Sullinger-Humphries - 1 game
Rondo-Wallace-Green-Bass-Sullinger - 5 games
Pressey-Wallace-Green-Bass-Sullinger - 3 games
Rondo-Bradley-Green-Bass-Sullinger - 3 games
Pressey-Wallace-Green-Bass-Humphries - 1 game
Rondo-Wallace-Green-Bass-Humphries - 1 game

Bayless and Humphries are starters (3-6)
Rondo-Bayless-Green-Bass-Humphries for 8 games, Pressety started instead of Rondo for 1

Bradley returns (1-6)
Rondo-Bradley-Green-Bass-Humphries for 5 games, Bayless started instead of Rondo for 2

End of season (2-6)
A variety of line ups to end the season:
Rondo-Bayless-Green-Bass-Humphries for 2 games then
Pressey-Bayless-Green-Bass-Sullinger for 1 game then
Rondo-Bradley-Green-Bass-Sullinger for 1 game then
Pressey-Bradley-Green-Bass-Sullinger for 1 game then
Pressey-Bradley-Green-Bass-Olynyk for 1 game then
Rondo-Bradley-Green-Bass-Olynyk for 1 game then
Pressey-Bradley-Green-Bass-Olynyk for 1 game

Thoughts
* The three main reasons that the Celtic's didn't have a five man group with a lot of minutes were the trade of Crawford, Bradley's injuries and the inability of anyone to establish themselves at PF and C
* Retrospectively, the trading of Crawford looks foolish. It assumed that Ronodo would be able to play every game for the rest of the season and that the injury-prone Bradley would not get injured - two bad assumptions. For a team swimming in draft picks, picking up a few more second round picks isn't going to be much of a benefit. Joel Anthony is sucking up $3.8M worth of cap space for absolutely nothing
* The other two reasons are likely to reoccur this season. Bradley will continue to be injury-prone and I don't see anyone as a clear starter at PF and C. I know Zeller is suppose to be the starting C, but he couldn't keep the starting C job in Cleveland with some weak competition there
* One way to predict this season based upon last season is to look at the 9-12 record of the Bradley-Crawford-Green-Bass-Sullinger starting unit, say that Rondo is an upgrade over Crawford so the Celtics can be a .500 club this season
* Another way to predict this season based upon last season is to look at the 1-6 stretch when Bradley returned after his injury. Plug Zeller into Humphries into the Rondo-Bradley-Green-Bass-Humphries starting 5 and you have the likely starters for this season. By this time, the league had figure out Steven's offense and defense.