Could the Mavs be sneaky good this year?

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I think it's interesting that so many people have fallen in love with Dallas as 'dark horse' team in the West this year.

Dirk is still Dirk, so as long as he is still doing his thing Dallas is always going to be competitive. Then there's Ellis, who really seemed to finally find a team and offensive system he fits with. Parsons, meh, he's good but has become wildly overrated by far too many people.   I think Houston actually improved by swapping Parsons for Ariza, due to Parsons lack of defense, particularly compared to Ariza who is near-elite on that end. Losing Marion probably hurts Dallas more than most realize.

As for the other additions, I don't see any of them as moving the needle much. Chandler is just about washed up, Felton is a over weight doughboy, who was probably the worst starting PG last year. Nelson was pretty mediocre the last few years too. Devin Harris is probably the best of that bunch of PG's. Losing Calderón is a big blow to Dallas as well.

I guess my outlook for Dallas is just far more bleak than most. I expect about similar results to last year, possibly they do worse.

Dude, Parsons is the real deal.  He's a 17-6-4 guy on 47% shooting and 37% from 3, and he'll likely get way more looks with Dallas.  He is in a whole seperate league from Marion and Ariza.  Adding his youth and dropping all the old guys (Carter, Calderon, Marion, Dalembert) is going to do nothing but help them.

This is also the second time I've seen "Tyson Chandler is washed up" on this site, but I have no clue where it's coming from.  The dude is 1 year removed from the 3 best years of his career, but you're going to judge based on how he looked coming back from injury on an imploding Knicks team?  You might as well say Rondo is washed up.

I also like how you say the outlook for Dallas is bleak, but you expect similar results to last year.  You do realize they were one game away from beating the championship-winners (which is further than any other team took them)?

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Carlisle might be the second best coach in the Western Conference. That doesn't get brought up enough.

They'll be fine: ~50 wins and probably a first or second round out, just like they always do.

If it wasn't for that pesky championship, that would be a totally correct assessment 

But, yeah, I do expect similar results.

Good point, although that championship struck me as a 'best of all possible worlds' scenario, since they were able to dodge the Spurs, the Lakers, and the Grizzlies

Why does that matter when none of those teams were anywhere close to Miami or OKC that year with Harden?

Also, I think I remember them sweeping the Lakers that year no?  I thought that was when Terry and Peja embarassed the crap out Kobe.  And wasn't that also the year the Spurs had Jefferson stinking it up and they got bounced in the first round?