Author Topic: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics  (Read 16354 times)

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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #45 on: August 19, 2014, 02:29:16 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I feel like this cannot be stated firmly enough; if Monroe signs the qualifying offer, he won't be traded for anything approaching fair return. Teams won't have his bird rights, no guarantee of RFA, nobody will trade anything of value for him because they'll be renting him.
Not only that, he's very unlikely to be traded at all because he loses out on potential sign and trades to land him to a team of his choice.

I hadn't even considered that. Indeed.

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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #46 on: August 19, 2014, 02:37:29 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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For those concerned with Monroe's rim-protecting abilities, how much of that is instinct vs. being taught proper technique?

Monroe is still young and has only been with one team, who might not be teaching him best practices for big man defense in the NBA. Who's to say that he doesn't become a serviceable rim protector upon switching teams, and adds that to his offensive game?

The first question is not rhetorical; I actually want to know.

Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #47 on: August 19, 2014, 02:52:34 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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My suspicion is that it's like almost everything else on a basketball court: the fundamentals can be taught, but the instinct is what distinguishes a player (from okay to elite or from 'awful' to 'servicable'). I'm sure we've all played pickup against that guy who has great defensive instincts but the athleticism of a geriatric, compared to some of the more physically gifted players who simply don't have great defensive acumen.

There are many things that change in the striation of sports at different levels of play, but that doesn't tend to be one of them.
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #48 on: August 19, 2014, 02:53:35 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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For those concerned with Monroe's rim-protecting abilities, how much of that is instinct vs. being taught proper technique?
Its almost entirely proper technique, but technique doesn't really describe it. You have to be quick at reading situations and quick at making proper reactions and decisions to position yourself. That can be learned, but it has to operate so fast that you really have to learn it so its reflex not a thought process.

If you have to think, I need to shade the paint to his left now because he's got a step then its too late he's already got the layup.

Young players are almost universally bad at it, because its an experience thing with the NBA level speed and how exactly each player in the league attacks a defense.

Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #49 on: August 19, 2014, 02:54:20 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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My suspicion is that it's like almost everything else on a basketball court: the fundamentals can be taught, but the instinct is what distinguishes a player (from okay to elite or from 'awful' to 'servicable'). I'm sure we've all played pickup against that guy who has great defensive instincts but the athleticism of a geriatric, compared to some of the more physically gifted players who simply don't have great defensive acumen.

There are many things that change in the striation of sports at different levels of play, but that doesn't tend to be one of them.
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #50 on: August 19, 2014, 03:09:29 PM »

Offline bucknersrevenge

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For those concerned with Monroe's rim-protecting abilities, how much of that is instinct vs. being taught proper technique?

Monroe is still young and has only been with one team, who might not be teaching him best practices for big man defense in the NBA. Who's to say that he doesn't become a serviceable rim protector upon switching teams, and adds that to his offensive game?

The first question is not rhetorical; I actually want to know.

Good question. But if you really want to muddy the waters, add in that Monroe was probably hung out to dry more often than not with Brandon Jennings and KCP defending the ballhandler and bad defensive systems throughout. Here it would be Smart, Bradley, and Rondo.
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #51 on: August 19, 2014, 03:13:22 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Is it likely that we would have heard a rumor of at least a lowball sign-and-trade offer from Ainge if he had any interest in Monroe?

I wouldn't be shocked if the contract Ainge would hypothetically be willing to offer Monroe in 2015 is smaller than the contract he would be willing to offer Rondo.  I might even be shocked if that wasn't the case.

I agree with you, but to play devils advocate, if Ainge was really trying for an all-in approach in 2015, not necessarily a catapulting into contention, but a cessation of tankitude, it would follow that this year he's be in the same place RE Monroe (paying him max money) next summer but without having to give up the valuable assets the Pistons would command in such a trade.

A sidebar, Detroit really does seem adrift right now. They should've moved Monroe before the deadline for the best offer they could've gotten last year. Monroe did not seem content by any means in Detroit and the hardball tactics that the Pistons have employed in RFA cannot have injected any good feelings into the equation. If they let him sign the QO, they will almost certainly lose him for nothing.

They should've offered him the max or traded him. Falk's been angling for a max offer for months before free agency even started, this cannot be much of a surprise.

That assumes that Detroit won't cave and offer Monroe more money or that Monroe won't cave and take the sure big contract.  If Ainge really wanted Monroe, he would be foolish to assume that the rare event of a restricted free agent accepting his qualifying offer would occur unless he had the sort of under-the-table assurances that would be a clear case of tampering.

Detroit took the approach of letting the market decide Monroe's value instead of bidding against themselves, something advocated by many fans of various teams with their own restricted free agents.  Do you believe this is a flawed strategy?  Detroit appears to have made an accurate estimation that no team would be willing to sign Monroe for the max.  They don't seem to think he is worth the max and may believe that losing Monroe for nothing is a lesser evil than overpaying him. 

(If you think I wrote that paragraph as a invitation for people to compare Detroit handling Monroe to Boston handling Bradley, you would be right.)

I think that's close to true, but because they were rumored to have put out packages of 4 for 54M and 5 for 60M, that would have put it in opposing team's heads that Detroit would be willing to match any offer on the order of 16-18M per (or even higher), simply to force a trade, if nothing else.

This is the issue with Restricted Free Agency.   Another team may indeed have been willing to pay a lot more than Detroit would for Monroe (even a full max), but that doesn't mean they want to also have to send players and/or picks to Detroit in compensation.

By waiting until next year, Monroe will be an Unrestricted FA and that removes compensation for  Detroit from the equation.
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #52 on: August 19, 2014, 03:17:26 PM »

Offline AB_Celtic

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These were more or less the responses I was expecting. So, which group does Monroe fall under?

1) Young and inexperienced; will improve with experience
2) Doesn't have proper instincts; can't read situation fast enough

That one was rhetorical. I think most people on this site view Monroe as a member of camp #2, when he's flat-out too young for us to comfortably say with any certainty.

So, I'll happily take a flier on him, be happy with his offensive game, and do everything we can to get his defensive game up to par. If he does end up in #2, then so be it. But if he's #1, we've found our center for the next X years.

Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #53 on: August 19, 2014, 03:21:52 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I think Detroit needs to do its business or get off the pot, as it were. According to Falk they're not just not bidding against themselves; they're not bidding at all. If that's true, they're going for the kill, not just trying to make a fair deal.

And from a business standpoint, it makes sense. But for all the talk of 'the NBA is a business', I think that what Detroit is actually setting themselves up for is a net loss. I've said this before, but his agent is a former powerhouse in decline. Monroe is his top payday for the foreseeable future, at least in NBA circles.

I think there is a good chance Falk uses Detroit's hard line tactics to make a point of his own, that a potential franchise cornerstone will take the nuclear option, sign the QO, and then sign anywhere else the following year.

Seems petty, but the NBA is a business run by humans. And Falk has 2 RFAs in the next 3 years in Sullinger and Porter. If he doesn't make hay with the Monroe situation, I could easily see Porter or Sullinger changing agents before their free agency comes around.

They aren't RFAs, but doesn't Falk also have potentially large contracts coming in the next year for Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert?   Both have Player Options for 2015-16.   Granted, both have their share of both fans and detractors, but if both have a good season, both are likely too opt-out and land very large contracts next summer.  Probably not 'max' deals, but large nevertheless.   That's going to net him a fair chunk of 'cred' as well as cash so I'm not sure he's going to look that much in decline.

I do agree with you though, that he is probably looking forward to those future RFA deals and establishing precedent.
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #54 on: August 19, 2014, 03:28:31 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Monroe's defense for me breaks down to

1) Terrible coaching

2) Being improperly deployed by the terrible coaches

Detroit had a marked difference with Monroe at the 5 last year, even defensively. 

With Monroe at the 4: Off: 100.6 Def: 105.5
With Monroe at the 5: Off: 103.5 Def: 102.7

I don't think this is because Drummond is a bad defensive center (although I do think he's a bit overrated), I think this is because Detroit so rarely sent out lineups that actually made sense, even a second-unit lineup where players played roles that suited them offensively and defensively was enough to move the needle significantly.

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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #55 on: August 19, 2014, 03:33:57 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I feel like this cannot be stated firmly enough; if Monroe signs the qualifying offer, he won't be traded for anything approaching fair return. Teams won't have his bird rights, no guarantee of RFA, nobody will trade anything of value for him because they'll be renting him.
Not only that, he's very unlikely to be traded at all because he loses out on potential sign and trades to land him to a team of his choice.

I would word it more firmly:  Once he's signed the QO, he has a No-Trade clause.   He can ONLY be traded to a team of his choice.

And at that point, Detroit can kiss getting any sort of decent return for him goodbye.

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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #56 on: August 19, 2014, 03:41:04 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I feel like this cannot be stated firmly enough; if Monroe signs the qualifying offer, he won't be traded for anything approaching fair return. Teams won't have his bird rights, no guarantee of RFA, nobody will trade anything of value for him because they'll be renting him.
Not only that, he's very unlikely to be traded at all because he loses out on potential sign and trades to land him to a team of his choice.

I would word it more firmly:  Once he's signed the QO, he has a No-Trade clause.   He can ONLY be traded to a team of his choice.

And at that point, Detroit can kiss getting any sort of decent return for him goodbye.

I'm not even sure that's the biggest issue (the NTC).

If he's traded, none of his bird rights come with him. He loses all S&T capability, loses any chance of going to a team that doesn't have max cap room (assuming he gets a max or near-max deal).

If its about keeping his options open, he doesn't agree to any trades, anywhere.

"You've gotta respect a 15-percent 3-point shooter. A guy
like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #57 on: August 19, 2014, 03:41:56 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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Monroe's defense for me breaks down to

1) Terrible coaching

2) Being improperly deployed by the terrible coaches

Detroit had a marked difference with Monroe at the 5 last year, even defensively. 

With Monroe at the 4: Off: 100.6 Def: 105.5
With Monroe at the 5: Off: 103.5 Def: 102.7

I don't think this is because Drummond is a bad defensive center (although I do think he's a bit overrated), I think this is because Detroit so rarely sent out lineups that actually made sense, even a second-unit lineup where players played roles that suited them offensively and defensively was enough to move the needle significantly.

Yes, I concur.

My assessment of Monroe is that he is more effective as center on both offense AND defense because while he's not the biggest or longest center, he's not small, either, especially with his wingspan, but he's very, very athletic.   This allows him to outmaneuver many slower C's when he's on offense and it also allows him to compensate for defensive mistakes on the other end.

I do think that he could really benefit from a solid coaching situation.

I think also that right now, he is very skeptical of SVG being a good fit for him because of SVG's history with the 1-and-4 Dwight Howard offense.   If Drummond is the "1", where does that leave Monroe?
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #58 on: August 19, 2014, 03:54:04 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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I feel like this cannot be stated firmly enough; if Monroe signs the qualifying offer, he won't be traded for anything approaching fair return. Teams won't have his bird rights, no guarantee of RFA, nobody will trade anything of value for him because they'll be renting him.
Not only that, he's very unlikely to be traded at all because he loses out on potential sign and trades to land him to a team of his choice.

I would word it more firmly:  Once he's signed the QO, he has a No-Trade clause.   He can ONLY be traded to a team of his choice.

And at that point, Detroit can kiss getting any sort of decent return for him goodbye.

I'm not even sure that's the biggest issue (the NTC).

If he's traded, none of his bird rights come with him. He loses all S&T capability, loses any chance of going to a team that doesn't have max cap room (assuming he gets a max or near-max deal).

If its about keeping his options open, he doesn't agree to any trades, anywhere.

Well, sure if it's just about keeping his options open.

But he still could reach an agreement in principle to be traded to a team that (a) he KNOWS will have cap room next summer to sign him to a larger contract and (b) that gives him every reason to believe he will be a good fit.

If he gets traded in that situation, it's only with consent on his part - so the team knows he wants to be there - and the cost is only 5.5M in salary matching plus nominal compensation for Detroit.   This gets you only a 'rental', but it's a good try-before-you-buy scenario for both sides.   If he walks after the season, it didn't really cost you anything major.

Boston definitely is the sort of team that could pull this off - they have both the necessary matching and compensation pieces to send for him and will have the cap room to sign him next year.   But they'd have to convince Monroe to WANT to come here.
« Last Edit: August 19, 2014, 04:11:24 PM by mmmmm »
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Re: Blakely: Pistons' Monroe potential 2015 target for Celtics
« Reply #59 on: August 19, 2014, 03:57:46 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I don't get it

Why wait til 2015???

Why not just sign the guy now or work out a sign/trade with Detroit involving Jeff Green??

Also, I've learned not to put too much stock in what Blakely says.

For all we know, he's referring to Marilyn Monroe.
If all it took was Jeff Green, I would do the deal immediately, something tells me Monroe will cost more than that.

My guess is that you would have to be willing to trade one of Sullinger/Olynyk, the Celtics 2015 unprotected pick, and one of the Nets picks to even be in a conversation about a Monroe S&T.
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