Author Topic: If we were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would we want back.  (Read 40442 times)

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Re: If we were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would we want back.
« Reply #135 on: August 30, 2014, 11:26:32 AM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Shouldn't the thread title read 'If they were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would they want back.'? Do you actually think you are a part of the Celtics organization? Make sure to understand, what you write on here means less than nothing in the real world.

Someone didn't wake up on the right side of the bed.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: If we were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would we want back.
« Reply #136 on: August 30, 2014, 12:10:55 PM »

Offline BballTim

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There's little evidence to support the idea that Rondo is in his prime now, and at least one good argument that he's already peaked (courtesy of the Wages of Wins guys).
http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Stumbling upon wins is also on google books, by the way.

  I actually like wages of wins to a certain extent, but it has the unmistakable "statistics measure everything important with complete accuracy" aroma to it. I'm well aware that players tend to have their best statistics in their early-mid 20s, I also realize that players tend to win more when they're older than that. They may contribute a little less on a minute-by minute basis, but they contribute more at key points when they're older, and do more things that don't show up directly on box scores. A current example is LeBron James. Many people noticed a meaningful difference in his game from 2012 going forward but you wouldn't really be able to point to a big jump in his stats. If you think that LeBron was at his best in 2009 or so then you wouldn't think Rondo's in his prime, if you prefer LeBron's play in 2013 or so you'd have a different opinion.

  But that's for a different thread.
You mean aside from the colossal jump in FG% that brought him to a Jordan-esque level of efficiency?


  His fg% is up, his points, rebounds, assists, FTA/game, WS and other stats are down. From wages of wins 2009 was his peak year in terms of WS/minute.
He's playing less minutes than he was earlier in his career though.  On a per minute basis his stats are the same, aside from FG% which is now at a historic level for SFs (also not sure how his rebounds are really down, they peaked from 12-13).  According to basketball-reference, his peak year in WS/48 was 2013 (as well as TRB%).

  Yes, one of the reasons his stats are down is that he plays fewer minutes. The number of minutes you play matter though. In any case, this is just a tangent. The post I responded to was about wages of wins and (without re-checking) they had his peak year as 2009 or so.

Re: If we were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would we want back.
« Reply #137 on: August 30, 2014, 12:16:23 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Shouldn't the thread title read 'If they were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would they want back.'? Do you actually think you are a part of the Celtics organization? Make sure to understand, what you write on here means less than nothing in the real world.

  I'd guess you're the first person in this thread to be confused by that fairly common use of the word "we".

Re: If we were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would we want back.
« Reply #138 on: August 30, 2014, 06:22:15 PM »

Offline FreddieJ

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Rondo is still capable of being the leader of this team
« Last Edit: August 30, 2014, 06:37:26 PM by FreddieJ »

Re: If we were to trade Rondo to sacramento what would we want back.
« Reply #139 on: August 31, 2014, 12:00:30 PM »

Offline BballTim

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No shot, stauskas mclemore and two first round picks along with Gerald Wallace taken off our hands wouldn't even be enough for me, the greatest value in that trade would be the increase in quality of our draft pick next year.  Mclemore has done nothing, stauskas is unproven and I would not have drafted him with the 8th pick, and with rondo to the kings we wouldn't get good draft picks.  Also without rondo here were in no rush to acquire superstars like we would be if rondo was still in town, so unloading Gerald Wallace contract isn't even a priority anymore.  I really can't picture a scenario I would be happy letting go of rondo with the kings.

Agreed.  Rondo for Stauskas plus late 1st round picks is a garbage trade for the Celtics.  Sacramento alone doesn't make sense.  There would have to be a 3rd team who could give us better value.  Now if Demarcus Cousins is part of the package, I'd listen.  But I doubt that is the case.

Never ceases to amaze me how much people think Rondo is worth.
This isn't the first year of a 4 year contract- he's in his final year and unproven since injury.
At least accept that there's a huge possibility he walks as a free agent.

Demarcus Cousins? Really?

I don't want to trade Rondo but I know if we have to take that route that Stauskas+McLemore is MORE than enough for an expiring *hope to be All Star again one day* point guard.

  Hilarious. Clearly you're the expert on Rondo's value here. Aside from your being generally enthralled by scouting reports on rookies, what are the chances that either of those two players every become above average starters?


That's pretty rich criticism coming from Rondos number one fanboy and secretary. But you'd never be biased against the idea of trading Rondo would you.
 The chance Mclemore and Stauskas have of becoming solid players is the same as every other first round rookie. They're solid young players with 10 years ahead of them and we don't know what their ceiling is.
That's not the point here. The point is Rondos trade value.
At this stage, you honestly believe if we attempted to trade Rondo without an extension, that we'd get more than two top 10 draft picks? After he's openly stated he wants to be courted during free agency?
Since you're his cyber-agent tell me what would we get for Rondo Tim?
I'd love to hear your unbiased and completely homerisms-removed opinion. You just scolded me for suggesting that two top picks is plenty. So hit me/amuse everyone with your realistic trade value of Rondo.

You are probably right in that Rondo's trade value (or free agent attracting value, for that matter) currently isn't all that high.

For that reason, I can't see why in the world Danny would trade him.  I see a possibility of his value being much, much higher by mid-season or this off-season than it is right now.

Selling low doesn't seem like the smart move.

   His value may go up, and it could just as easily plummet even lower as time goes by. The unfortunate truth (to me at least) is that right now, there probably isn't much of a market for him because of his injury recovery and contract situation. If he had 2 seasons left on his deal and he'd just come back from surgery, he'd be worth waaaayyyy more, even with the injury recovery. Problem is that he's an expiring contract who's openly talked about free agency and the 'experience' of being a free agent that he wants to try. We haven't seen good old Rondo for exactly 18 months. One and a half years.
   He's 28 years and six months old on a bargain contract, approaching his prime, while our team appears to be at least 2-3 years away from being a contender. Adding stars to this roster is not going to be easy. We are one of many teams who'll be going after the free agents of Rondo's class including Rondo. ' He came back midway through last season and averaged his typical 11 to 12 points, 9.8 assists and 5.5 rebounds per game.... but was a lesser player in nearly every aspect. He shot just 40.3 percent from the field, including an abhorrent 32.7 percent outside five feet. He lost 7 percent from his jump shot conversion rate from 2012-13 to 2013-14.'

'Going further, underlying numbers indicate Rondo was even worse than the standard stats. Synergy Sports ranked him in the ninth percentile among players league-wide on a per-possession basis. He made 42.1 percent on shots out of the pick-and-roll, turning the ball over on more than 22 percent of his possessions.'

  Much more distressing was Rondo's play on the defensive end, which oscillated between pretty bad and downright dreadful. Prone to fits of jumpiness and mistakes rooted in over-aggressiveness before his injury, Rondo was all over the place at times following his return. Opposing guards killed Rondo by coaxing him into poor position early in the possession and having him run right into screens on the pick-and-roll.

In his 998 minutes on the floor, the Celtics allowed 110.3 points per 100 possessions. In his 2,948 minutes on the bench, that number dropped to 103.5.

 There are myriad problems with using lineup stats to judge an individual player's defensive impact, but the numbers are far from a coincidence. ESPN's DRPM metric had Rondo 361st among the 437 players ranked; he had the same defensive rating as Nick Young. His win shares per 48 minutes were the lowest of his career, per Basketball-Reference.

  The injury is enormous (in a bad way), and approaching 30 years old for his next big contract, his shooting which was already questioned, has gotten worse, and his stats have gotten worse. The speculation is that he wants a max contract too. How many teams in the NBA want to pay Rondo a maximum deal after his recent half season? I'm not saying he won't get better- but we still haven't seen it, and that scares trade partners. The circumstances just aren't on the Celtics or Rondos side.

I personally believe he can come back to 90%, but he needs god players around him. He needs good shooters and good finishers to utilize his god given ability.

You're right in that this upcoming season is the chance to erase that last 6 months of playing while rehabilitating, but it's going to take a good 3-4 months for people to accept that he can be the player he once was. And by then we'll already be half way through season and he'll be closer to approaching the 'courting' of free agency that he's spoken about.


  I thought that part of what I quoted in another thread would be fairly applicable to this:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/08/12/clippers-sale-steve-ballmer-goes-through/wzUdLhetoT7OQVkTKSa3uM/story.html

“Rondo’s going to be great this year,” Rivers said. “He’s going to be healthy. It’s the following year [after ACL surgery] that you become who you were. So I think Rondo will have a great year. And I think that will be great for the team."

  I'd guess that this would be a pretty typical reaction among nba execs to Rondo's recovery. They aren't going to be fretting over any drops in his stats during his recovery any more than they did when they were trying to trade for Chris Paul a few years back. They're unlikely to get caught up in any "we don't know that he'll ever improve more than he has" hype just because people post it on the internet. They're more likely to look at his recovery (no real issues at all) and rely on what they typically see in players in terms of recoveries from similar injuries.