Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up? (Locked)

[BballTim]

   If you traded Rondo for Ibaka where does that really leave the team? Imagine OKC if you swapped Durant, Westbrook and Perk for Green, Sully and Smart. That's about where we'd be.

You mean besides filling a position of need (Ibaka can easily play C), addressing our biggest weakness (interior defense/rim protection), a cheaper contract (signed for a little over 12M until 2017 vs whatever we give Rondo), allowing more playing time to our greatest building block (Smart), and the age factor (3.5 years younger)? Yeah, we'd be in total peril.

  You're probably right, we make that trade and the Cavs will stay up nights figuring out how to catch up with us.

I had no idea the Cavs were mortified at the daunting task of trying to contain Rondo.

  You'd have to add players to get to be a quality team with either Ibaka or Rondo. But in the case that you did, I'd guess that most people who have seen much of the playoffs over the last 5 years would tell you the Cavs would be more concerned about containing a player like Rondo than a player like Ibaka.

  But beyond that, you haven't really done much to disagree with my original post. Where would the team be after the trade? Multiple star players away from being any kind of contenders, right?

[DraftSmart33]

Yes.  Ibaka w/ current Celtics > Rondo w/ current Celtics.

[showtime]

 Lets not stop there, while we're at it lets trade Bradley for Durant. It would have about as much chance happening as the other.

[jambr380]

From a talent and value perspective, this seems like a very fair deal for both sides. Those arguing heavily in favor of one side seem to be a bit off in their argument.

What really matters is if OKC is comfortable depleting their rim protection in favor of having the most dynamic backcourt in the NBA and if Boston feels confident with Smart running the show moving forward.

[Eddie20]

   If you traded Rondo for Ibaka where does that really leave the team? Imagine OKC if you swapped Durant, Westbrook and Perk for Green, Sully and Smart. That's about where we'd be.

You mean besides filling a position of need (Ibaka can easily play C), addressing our biggest weakness (interior defense/rim protection), a cheaper contract (signed for a little over 12M until 2017 vs whatever we give Rondo), allowing more playing time to our greatest building block (Smart), and the age factor (3.5 years younger)? Yeah, we'd be in total peril.

  You're probably right, we make that trade and the Cavs will stay up nights figuring out how to catch up with us.

I had no idea the Cavs were mortified at the daunting task of trying to contain Rondo.

  You'd have to add players to get to be a quality team with either Ibaka or Rondo. But in the case that you did, I'd guess that most people who have seen much of the playoffs over the last 5 years would tell you the Cavs would be more concerned about containing a player like Rondo than a player like Ibaka.

  But beyond that, you haven't really done much to disagree with my original post. Where would the team be after the trade? Multiple star players away from being any kind of contenders, right?

Pretty much, but a big man is much harder to find than a PG in today's NBA. That also doesn't take into account our needs, Ibaka's lesser salary, his younger age, and we have Smart waiting in the wings if Rondo were to be traded.

Which one of those do you disagree on?

[D.o.s.]

I do certainly think Scott Brooks plays a big role in the mismanagement of Westbrook and Durant, which is one of the reasons I think he should be fired. I don't think your point about Durant's regular season shot attempts with/without Westbrook tells the whole story though. After all, OKC's problem isn't in the regular season but rather in the playoffs, where ball movement ceases to exist (to the naked eye).

Let's look at 2011-12 (Westbrook healthy, playoff career high minutes at SG, trip to Finals), 2012-13 (no Westbrook) and 2013-14 (healthy Westbrook, MVP Durant, yet frustrating WCF loss). The reason I attempt to look at all three is because I think my perception of the Westbrook/Durant duo is being misinterpreted. I think Westbrook helps Durant as a player regardless of the position he plays.  This is shown by the differential in the percentage of assisted baskets between Durant's 2012-13 playoff campaign and his 2013-14 campaign. Of his two-point FGM, 23.3% were assisted in 2012-13. In 2013-14, 53%. A similar differential can be seen in his percentage of three-pointers assisted. These stats suggest Westbrook takes pressure off Durant, creating more open/less contested shots for him. Westbrook's prowess as a scorer and an offensive threat are the same whether he plays PG or SG. When he's off the floor, Durant is forced into isolation.

My argument is more that Westbrook would help Durant even more so and be a more efficient player at SG. Now look at the 2011-12 playoffs. Westbrook played 33% of his minutes at SG, the highest percentage of his playoff career (and it's not even close; next highest percentage is 8% in 2013-14). During the playoff campaign, Westbrook shot career playoff highs in FG% and eFG% outside of his rookie year. Only his TS% was lower in 2011-12 than it was this year, which can be attributed to a far higher FT% this year (something that has little to do with him playing PG vs SG). Most importantly, Durant also found unique success with Westbrook playing more SG during the 2011-12 playoffs. His eFG% was 57%, 5.9% higher than his second career playoff high (which happened to be during this year's playoffs).

There's an argument to be made that the Thunder might just not be as good as they were in 2011-12 with Harden. Westbrook and Durant are, however, yet they played much less efficiently this year than they did in 2011-12. The argument I'm trying to make when I say "create more opportunities for Durant" has nothing to do with shot attempts. Durant already shoots about 20 times a game and there's only so many shots to go around. It has to do with efficiency and offensive fluidity, something that the Thunder's playoff offense lacks despite boasting three Olympians, one of which is the MVP.

On your second point -- two-PG lineups that prioritize P&R and the fast break -- how do you think Rondo, Westbrook and Durant would fare on the court if Durant played more of a Dirk role instead of a T-Mac role (meaning greater participation from him in the P&R instead of Rondo/Westbrook operating with McGary/Adams)? I'm asking you seriously because you seem to have impressive knowledge regarding offensive schemes and trends in the NBA.

Ah, I see what you're saying, and I have to agree with it. In regards with Rondo, Westbrook and Durant on the floor at the same time, I think that sort of depends on the rest of the roster.

My quick questions about that lineup in this hypothetical come regarding how the team deals with the fact that defenders are going to play off Westbrook and/or Rondo (whichever has the ball) in order to help in the paint against a pick and roll featuring Durant, and I don't think KD's strengths are really emphasized by being the roll man (although I'm not sure there's enough evidence to prove that one way or the other). Either way, while you're going to have an open Rondo or an open Westbrook regularly, that doesn't seem like that's not going to be something you can exploit consistently, since they're streaky outside shooters.

The problem, then, is sort of what plagues OKC right now -- they don't have consistent second and third options when they run into trouble after their first set. I'm not sure that changes all that much if you have Durant setting screens.

On paper, I'd probably look more towards something like the Princeton offense for a team with those guys at the 1,2, and 4, rather than using Durant to set screens. That would be a scary team to watch.

[BballTim]

This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.

 I'm fairly confident that Russell did that, probably on a regular basis.

How many other NBA players have done that?

How many full games of Russell's have you seen to make you so confident?

Don't get me wrong, I totally hope Russell did it too.  I'm not really going to go searching for the record but in Hakeem's entire 4.6 bpg season he had 4 10+ block games.  What, did Russell average 9 bpg per game in order to do this on a regular basis? (again, I hope so)

  Most of the estimates I've seen on Russell's blocks/game are around 7. Did I see a lot of his full games? No. I never saw a full game Babe Ruth played in either, but I'm fairly confident that he hit a lot of home runs. Not seeing something yourself doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

[BballTim]

   If you traded Rondo for Ibaka where does that really leave the team? Imagine OKC if you swapped Durant, Westbrook and Perk for Green, Sully and Smart. That's about where we'd be.

You mean besides filling a position of need (Ibaka can easily play C), addressing our biggest weakness (interior defense/rim protection), a cheaper contract (signed for a little over 12M until 2017 vs whatever we give Rondo), allowing more playing time to our greatest building block (Smart), and the age factor (3.5 years younger)? Yeah, we'd be in total peril.

  You're probably right, we make that trade and the Cavs will stay up nights figuring out how to catch up with us.

I had no idea the Cavs were mortified at the daunting task of trying to contain Rondo.

  You'd have to add players to get to be a quality team with either Ibaka or Rondo. But in the case that you did, I'd guess that most people who have seen much of the playoffs over the last 5 years would tell you the Cavs would be more concerned about containing a player like Rondo than a player like Ibaka.

  But beyond that, you haven't really done much to disagree with my original post. Where would the team be after the trade? Multiple star players away from being any kind of contenders, right?

Pretty much, but a big man is much harder to find than a PG in today's NBA. That also doesn't take into account our needs, Ibaka's lesser salary, his younger age, and we have Smart waiting in the wings if Rondo were to be traded.

Which one of those do you disagree on?

  It would probably be prudent to see Smart play in an actual nba game before we anoint him our starting pg going forward. I'd argue that big men might be harder to find than pgs, but players who can dominate in the playoffs are harder to find than decent big men, even those who might be fringe all-stars. People are talking about how Ibaka will come out of his shell offensively if we get him. The opposite might be just as likely.

  Ibaka is near the top of the league in having the highest percentage of his shots assisted and he doesn't handle the ball much. How's a player who mainly takes open shots off of passes from Durant or Westbrook going to fare in our offense minus Rondo? He's also (at least thus far) a fairly average rebounder. I agree he's a good defender/rim protector, but you have to understand the player you're getting. A team with Rondo as it's best player can (and has) made deep playoff runs. I don't think it's at all realistic to expect anything close to that from a team with Ibaka as it's best player.

[Endless Paradise]

Beat LA: did you not want KG as a Celtic after he punched Channing Frye in the nuts?

[Hawkeye199]

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

yup.

second that

[mgent]

Did I see a lot of his full games? No. I never saw a full game Babe Ruth played in either, but I'm fairly confident that he hit a lot of home runs. Not seeing something yourself doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

How is this relevant?

This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.

 I'm fairly confident that Russell did that, probably on a regular basis.

How many other NBA players have done that?

How many full games of Russell's have you seen to make you so confident?

Don't get me wrong, I totally hope Russell did it too.  I'm not really going to go searching for the record but in Hakeem's entire 4.6 bpg season he had 4 10+ block games.  What, did Russell average 9 bpg per game in order to do this on a regular basis? (again, I hope so)

  Most of the estimates I've seen on Russell's blocks/game are around 7.

Most I've seen are 6 bpg, but fair enough.  I certainly didn't correlate that with 3 double-digit games in a month on a "regular basis."

The Hakeem example I gave was actually an outlier.  Eaton, Robinson, and Mutumbo all managed to average 4 and a half blocks while only having 1 double digit block night the entire season.  You do the math.

It's extremely possible for Russell to have averaged 7 bpg with 2 or 3 double digit block games per season.

It's totally possible he could have done it with zero 10 block games.

It's possible he had 10 of those games per season like some other poster who was too young to watch him randomly blurted out, which I showed was still not even close (~1.3 10+ games per month)

To do it in 5-6 months out of an 8 month season he would have likely needed over 20 10+ games per season.

Which would also mean Russell spent a solid chunk (another 4th?) of the season having bad nights. (are you seriously trying to make a convincing of an argument out of that Tim?)

That's why I was questioning your knowledge of Russell and how streaky his blocks were, since you said you were confident in your "regular basis" assertion. 

[TheFlex]

I do certainly think Scott Brooks plays a big role in the mismanagement of Westbrook and Durant, which is one of the reasons I think he should be fired. I don't think your point about Durant's regular season shot attempts with/without Westbrook tells the whole story though. After all, OKC's problem isn't in the regular season but rather in the playoffs, where ball movement ceases to exist (to the naked eye).

Let's look at 2011-12 (Westbrook healthy, playoff career high minutes at SG, trip to Finals), 2012-13 (no Westbrook) and 2013-14 (healthy Westbrook, MVP Durant, yet frustrating WCF loss). The reason I attempt to look at all three is because I think my perception of the Westbrook/Durant duo is being misinterpreted. I think Westbrook helps Durant as a player regardless of the position he plays.  This is shown by the differential in the percentage of assisted baskets between Durant's 2012-13 playoff campaign and his 2013-14 campaign. Of his two-point FGM, 23.3% were assisted in 2012-13. In 2013-14, 53%. A similar differential can be seen in his percentage of three-pointers assisted. These stats suggest Westbrook takes pressure off Durant, creating more open/less contested shots for him. Westbrook's prowess as a scorer and an offensive threat are the same whether he plays PG or SG. When he's off the floor, Durant is forced into isolation.

My argument is more that Westbrook would help Durant even more so and be a more efficient player at SG. Now look at the 2011-12 playoffs. Westbrook played 33% of his minutes at SG, the highest percentage of his playoff career (and it's not even close; next highest percentage is 8% in 2013-14). During the playoff campaign, Westbrook shot career playoff highs in FG% and eFG% outside of his rookie year. Only his TS% was lower in 2011-12 than it was this year, which can be attributed to a far higher FT% this year (something that has little to do with him playing PG vs SG). Most importantly, Durant also found unique success with Westbrook playing more SG during the 2011-12 playoffs. His eFG% was 57%, 5.9% higher than his second career playoff high (which happened to be during this year's playoffs).

There's an argument to be made that the Thunder might just not be as good as they were in 2011-12 with Harden. Westbrook and Durant are, however, yet they played much less efficiently this year than they did in 2011-12. The argument I'm trying to make when I say "create more opportunities for Durant" has nothing to do with shot attempts. Durant already shoots about 20 times a game and there's only so many shots to go around. It has to do with efficiency and offensive fluidity, something that the Thunder's playoff offense lacks despite boasting three Olympians, one of which is the MVP.

On your second point -- two-PG lineups that prioritize P&R and the fast break -- how do you think Rondo, Westbrook and Durant would fare on the court if Durant played more of a Dirk role instead of a T-Mac role (meaning greater participation from him in the P&R instead of Rondo/Westbrook operating with McGary/Adams)? I'm asking you seriously because you seem to have impressive knowledge regarding offensive schemes and trends in the NBA.

Ah, I see what you're saying, and I have to agree with it. In regards with Rondo, Westbrook and Durant on the floor at the same time, I think that sort of depends on the rest of the roster.

My quick questions about that lineup in this hypothetical come regarding how the team deals with the fact that defenders are going to play off Westbrook and/or Rondo (whichever has the ball) in order to help in the paint against a pick and roll featuring Durant, and I don't think KD's strengths are really emphasized by being the roll man (although I'm not sure there's enough evidence to prove that one way or the other). Either way, while you're going to have an open Rondo or an open Westbrook regularly, that doesn't seem like that's not going to be something you can exploit consistently, since they're streaky outside shooters.

The problem, then, is sort of what plagues OKC right now -- they don't have consistent second and third options when they run into trouble after their first set. I'm not sure that changes all that much if you have Durant setting screens.

On paper, I'd probably look more towards something like the Princeton offense for a team with those guys at the 1,2, and 4, rather than using Durant to set screens. That would be a scary team to watch.

Interesting, that's really cool. I did some basic research on the Princeton offense and came up with this team:

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=qyjdlxq

BOS trades: Rajon Rondo, Keith Bogans, Kelly Olynyk, Chris Babb, 2015 LAC 1st rounder
OKC trades: Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=kpdgpzl

NYK trades: P. Prigioni, Tim Hardaway, Jr.
OKC trades: R. Jackson

Rondo/S. Christon/Telfair/P. Prigioni
Westbrook/J. Lamb/A. Morrow/[A. Roberson]
T. Hardaway, Jr./[Durant]/A. Roberson/Perry Jones III
Durant/McGary/N. Collison/G. Jerrett
S. Adams/K. Olynyk/H. Thabeet

That's 17 guys, so they'd need to find a way to trim down the roster. How do you think that would work? Hardaway is a hell of a shooter and stats suggest he's a strong finisher (68% FG% within 3 feet of the rim, which accounts for 20% of his total FGA). He's very good off the catch, especially from deep: from 20-29 feet, about 84% of Hardaway's makes (shooting about 36%) are assisted. He's also at least an average passer with solid court vision.

[twistedrico]

Wow! You have the Celtics giving up way too much for Ibaka and Perkins. I wouldn't trade Rondo straight up for those two. Danny wouldn't either. No way.

[BballTim]

Did I see a lot of his full games? No. I never saw a full game Babe Ruth played in either, but I'm fairly confident that he hit a lot of home runs. Not seeing something yourself doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

How is this relevant?

This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.

 I'm fairly confident that Russell did that, probably on a regular basis.

How many other NBA players have done that?

How many full games of Russell's have you seen to make you so confident?

Don't get me wrong, I totally hope Russell did it too.  I'm not really going to go searching for the record but in Hakeem's entire 4.6 bpg season he had 4 10+ block games.  What, did Russell average 9 bpg per game in order to do this on a regular basis? (again, I hope so)

  Most of the estimates I've seen on Russell's blocks/game are around 7.

Most I've seen are 6 bpg, but fair enough.  I certainly didn't correlate that with 3 double-digit games in a month on a "regular basis."

The Hakeem example I gave was actually an outlier.  Eaton, Robinson, and Mutumbo all managed to average 4 and a half blocks while only having 1 double digit block night the entire season.  You do the math.

It's extremely possible for Russell to have averaged 7 bpg with 2 or 3 double digit block games per season.

It's totally possible he could have done it with zero 10 block games.

It's possible he had 10 of those games per season like some other poster who was too young to watch him randomly blurted out, which I showed was still not even close (~1.3 10+ games per month)

To do it in 5-6 months out of an 8 month season he would have likely needed over 20 10+ games per season.

Which would also mean Russell spent a solid chunk (another 4th?) of the season having bad nights. (are you seriously trying to make a convincing of an argument out of that Tim?)

That's why I was questioning your knowledge of Russell and how streaky his blocks were, since you said you were confident in your "regular basis" assertion.

  Yes, I suppose that it's possible that if he averaged 7 blocks a game he got between 6 and 8 every game, or maybe that he got exactly 7 blocks a game every single game and never got 10 even once. But even without watching much of Russell, I'd guess that most people who know much at all about any nba stat would be able to tell you how remote the possibilities of such tiny variations in the numbers you're talking about.

  If Russell averaged 7 blocks a game he'd need to exceed his average by just over 40% to get to 10. For the guys you mentioned, exceeding their averages by that amount would land them at roughly 6.4 blocks a game. All of them had at least 7 blocks in a game between 14 and 20 times in the seasons you're talking about. So they *averaged* hitting that number 3 or so times a month.

[kraidstar]

ibaka is overrated - swap marc gasol or noah onto the thunder and the thunder easily win a title.
ibaka sells out on D for blocks and flashy plays... when he played for spain last olympics, the gasol brothers got all the minutes, and there's a reason why, ibaka is talented, but he doesn't impose his will onto the game.
though this is not to say he's not a good player, he is, but if were really the force on D that people say that he is then the thunder would have a better playoff history than they do. he disappears for large stretches during playoff games, and rarely have i ever seen him dominate.
rondo on the other hand has frequently been the best player on the court in playoff games.
so while ibaka might better fill a need for the c's (because of smart), rondo is a better competitor, and a better impact player in crunch time.