Author Topic: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up? (Locked)  (Read 26734 times)

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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #15 on: August 08, 2014, 06:36:06 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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I 'get' that the idea here is to trade from a position of perceived surplus (point guard, because we just drafted Smart, so in some folks' eyes that makes Rondo "expendable").

But why are you doing so to add to another position of perceived surplus (Power Forward)?

'Not crazy about this deal as proposed.

And given that OKC seems committed to Westbrook as PG (and he's a poor 3PT shooter who would not be a great space maker next to Rondo), I doubt they would be crazy about it either.

I reject the notion that the trade Rondo/keep Rondo debate has everything to do with position. The Celtics are a rebuilding team; Rondo is approaching 30. The Celtics do not have a true no. 1 option on offense; Rondo thrives when surrounded by shooters/scorers/no. 1 options. Rondo appears to want a big payday and much of that raise would be in place of money that we could ideally use to pair Rondo with a no. 1 option like LaMarcus Aldridge. On top of all that, we just drafted a PG.

Discriminating against talent based on position is almost always a poor management tactic. If we can get Ibaka we should do it not because he can play center in addition to PF (and therefore decrease his value by playing out of position), but because he's a rare, versatile talent who makes any team good even if they already have Blake Griffin and Duncan (and we certainly don't have those guys).

The idea here is to pair Ibaka with J. Okafor, Towns or one of the center prospects in next year's draft. If it means trading Sully, Olynyk, or both, I'm all for it, as long as we get fair value. If it means keeping them, fine, as long as it's part of a plan that ends with us winning a championship.


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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #16 on: August 08, 2014, 06:38:55 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I 'get' that the idea here is to trade from a position of perceived surplus (point guard, because we just drafted Smart, so in some folks' eyes that makes Rondo "expendable").

But why are you doing so to add to another position of perceived surplus (Power Forward)?

'Not crazy about this deal as proposed.

And given that OKC seems committed to Westbrook as PG (and he's a poor 3PT shooter who would not be a great space maker next to Rondo), I doubt they would be crazy about it either.

I reject the notion that the trade Rondo/keep Rondo debate has everything to do with position. The Celtics are a rebuilding team; Rondo is approaching 30. The Celtics do not have a true no. 1 option on offense; Rondo thrives when surrounded by shooters/scorers/no. 1 options. Rondo appears to want a big payday and much of that raise would be in place of money that we could ideally use to pair Rondo with a no. 1 option like LaMarcus Aldridge. On top of all that, we just drafted a PG.

Discriminating against talent based on position is almost always a poor management tactic. If we can get Ibaka we should do it not because he can play center in addition to PF (and therefore decrease his value by playing out of position), but because he's a rare, versatile talent who makes any team good even if they already have Blake Griffin and Duncan (and we certainly don't have those guys).

The idea here is to pair Ibaka with J. Okafor, Towns or one of the center prospects in next year's draft. If it means trading Sully, Olynyk, or both, I'm all for it, as long as we get fair value. If it means keeping them, fine, as long as it's part of a plan that ends with us winning a championship.

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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #17 on: August 08, 2014, 06:48:30 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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OKC would not do this, since Ibaka anchors their defense and carries more value to them than Rondo..but I'm still not sure about the rationale from Boston's perspective.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #18 on: August 08, 2014, 06:54:40 PM »

Offline kg is king

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.
Westbrook being propelled to number 2 has nothing to do with how often he shoots. He shot 44% last year. So it's not like his numbers are inflated because of his shot volume. Aside from numbers, he definitely passes the eye test. The kid has tremendous talent. He reminds me of a young Kobe with the way he plays.
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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #19 on: August 08, 2014, 07:09:41 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.

Ball-dominant PGs do not maximize the team's talent when paired with a scorer like Durant. For Westbrook to maintain his style of play and continue playing PG he'd have to be the alpha dog (a la Allen Iverson). Getting the ball out of his hands and into the hands of a distributor could possibly eliminate many of Westbrook's wild shots (making the offense more efficient) and create more opportunities for Durant.

You act like that isn't a byproduct of Scott Brooks' offense. Remember when Westbrook went out back in January, and Durant was given the keys to the kingdom? Do you know how many more shots Durant took when Westbrook was sidelined, and couldn't "take away" shots and opportunities for KD? I'll give you this one: he averaged a massive one-and-a-half more shots per game, going from 18.7 to 21.2 (source: http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder-was-russell-westbrook-taking-away-shots-from-kevin-durant/article/3926876 )

Swapping players in and out while keeping the same coach and the same offensive schemes results in a change that is fairly immaterial -- something that people persist in overlooking when they talk about the Thunder's two best players.

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

There's a reason teams don't typically run two point guard lineups with pass-first players like Rondo, though.

You say "pass-first" as if it means Rondo can't score. I merely used the term to highlight Rondo's game being a fit with Westbrook and Durant. When healthy and surrounded by shooters he capitalizes on open lanes as well as any PG. In 2012 Rondo shot 46% of his shots within three feet. He shot 58% on such shots. Derrick Rose's most efficient year within 3 feet was 61% (and in that year, he only shot 29% of his shots that close to the basket). And can we get BBallTim in here to explain that Rondo is at least an average mid-range shooter?

I didn't say anything about Rondo's shooting. Please don't attribute me with an argument I'm not making.

To explain my point: Most of the time, you see the a two point guard backcourt when a team like, say, the Suns, has a pair of point guards that look to score off the pick and roll, and use their pair of capable ball handlers to largely disregard the half court offense and instead prioritize quick fast break points the majority of the time. With Rondo as the primary ball handler, I want more of a Jodie Meeks type (on offense, anyway) at the 2 than a Russell Westbrook (who I am a big fan of, incidentally).
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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2014, 07:25:59 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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Absolutely. Ibaka is locked up until 2017 for a shade over 12M per season. Plus, he shores up our biggest weakness, which is defending the rim. Still very young too, turning 25 next month. However, OKC won't ever do this.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2014, 07:31:32 PM »

Offline Eja117

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.
I don't know about that. Are the expectations for Jodi Meeks so high?  Do we expect Ibaka to be dramatically better than Rondo in the future? I sure don't.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2014, 07:51:47 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.
I don't know about that. Are the expectations for Jodi Meeks so high?  Do we expect Ibaka to be dramatically better than Rondo in the future? I sure don't.

Ibaka was pretty obviously given his extension with the expectation (on behalf of the Thunder front office) that he'd grow into it being a bargain. Same thing happened to Rondo when he signed his extension, actually.
At least a goldfish with a Lincoln Log on its back goin' across your floor to your sock drawer has a miraculous connotation to it.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #23 on: August 08, 2014, 07:58:22 PM »

Offline Eja117

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.
I don't know about that. Are the expectations for Jodi Meeks so high?  Do we expect Ibaka to be dramatically better than Rondo in the future? I sure don't.

Ibaka was pretty obviously given his extension with the expectation (on behalf of the Thunder front office) that he'd grow into it being a bargain. Same thing happened to Rondo when he signed his extension, actually.
Well that's fine that that's why people get the size contract they do, but why do people make trades? They do it because it's expected to help their team more in one way or another. I can't see Ibaka really helping us lots more. I don't think Ibaka is a team definer like Rondo.  If Rondo wants way more money, then considering he's older and we need a guy like Ibaka I'm fine with it. But I don't think people should get illusions that Ibaka is likely to be in any way better than Rondo for the next 4 years at least.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #24 on: August 08, 2014, 08:30:27 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.
I don't know about that. Are the expectations for Jodi Meeks so high?  Do we expect Ibaka to be dramatically better than Rondo in the future? I sure don't.

Ibaka was pretty obviously given his extension with the expectation (on behalf of the Thunder front office) that he'd grow into it being a bargain. Same thing happened to Rondo when he signed his extension, actually.
Well that's fine that that's why people get the size contract they do, but why do people make trades? They do it because it's expected to help their team more in one way or another. I can't see Ibaka really helping us lots more. I don't think Ibaka is a team definer like Rondo.  If Rondo wants way more money, then considering he's older and we need a guy like Ibaka I'm fine with it. But I don't think people should get illusions that Ibaka is likely to be in any way better than Rondo for the next 4 years at least.

PG is also the easiest position to fill in the league, not to mention we drafted Smart. How many bigs are better than Ibaka? How many can offer the rim protection he provides, which is our greatest need.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #25 on: August 08, 2014, 08:42:01 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.

Ball-dominant PGs do not maximize the team's talent when paired with a scorer like Durant. For Westbrook to maintain his style of play and continue playing PG he'd have to be the alpha dog (a la Allen Iverson). Getting the ball out of his hands and into the hands of a distributor could possibly eliminate many of Westbrook's wild shots (making the offense more efficient) and create more opportunities for Durant.

You act like that isn't a byproduct of Scott Brooks' offense. Remember when Westbrook went out back in January, and Durant was given the keys to the kingdom? Do you know how many more shots Durant took when Westbrook was sidelined, and couldn't "take away" shots and opportunities for KD? I'll give you this one: he averaged a massive one-and-a-half more shots per game, going from 18.7 to 21.2 (source: http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder-was-russell-westbrook-taking-away-shots-from-kevin-durant/article/3926876 )

Swapping players in and out while keeping the same coach and the same offensive schemes results in a change that is fairly immaterial -- something that people persist in overlooking when they talk about the Thunder's two best players.

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

There's a reason teams don't typically run two point guard lineups with pass-first players like Rondo, though.

You say "pass-first" as if it means Rondo can't score. I merely used the term to highlight Rondo's game being a fit with Westbrook and Durant. When healthy and surrounded by shooters he capitalizes on open lanes as well as any PG. In 2012 Rondo shot 46% of his shots within three feet. He shot 58% on such shots. Derrick Rose's most efficient year within 3 feet was 61% (and in that year, he only shot 29% of his shots that close to the basket). And can we get BBallTim in here to explain that Rondo is at least an average mid-range shooter?

I didn't say anything about Rondo's shooting. Please don't attribute me with an argument I'm not making.

To explain my point: Most of the time, you see the a two point guard backcourt when a team like, say, the Suns, has a pair of point guards that look to score off the pick and roll, and use their pair of capable ball handlers to largely disregard the half court offense and instead prioritize quick fast break points the majority of the time. With Rondo as the primary ball handler, I want more of a Jodie Meeks type (on offense, anyway) at the 2 than a Russell Westbrook (who I am a big fan of, incidentally).

I do certainly think Scott Brooks plays a big role in the mismanagement of Westbrook and Durant, which is one of the reasons I think he should be fired. I don't think your point about Durant's regular season shot attempts with/without Westbrook tells the whole story though. After all, OKC's problem isn't in the regular season but rather in the playoffs, where ball movement ceases to exist (to the naked eye).

Let's look at 2011-12 (Westbrook healthy, playoff career high minutes at SG, trip to Finals), 2012-13 (no Westbrook) and 2013-14 (healthy Westbrook, MVP Durant, yet frustrating WCF loss). The reason I attempt to look at all three is because I think my perception of the Westbrook/Durant duo is being misinterpreted. I think Westbrook helps Durant as a player regardless of the position he plays.  This is shown by the differential in the percentage of assisted baskets between Durant's 2012-13 playoff campaign and his 2013-14 campaign. Of his two-point FGM, 23.3% were assisted in 2012-13. In 2013-14, 53%. A similar differential can be seen in his percentage of three-pointers assisted. These stats suggest Westbrook takes pressure off Durant, creating more open/less contested shots for him. Westbrook's prowess as a scorer and an offensive threat are the same whether he plays PG or SG. When he's off the floor, Durant is forced into isolation.

My argument is more that Westbrook would help Durant even more so and be a more efficient player at SG. Now look at the 2011-12 playoffs. Westbrook played 33% of his minutes at SG, the highest percentage of his playoff career (and it's not even close; next highest percentage is 8% in 2013-14). During the playoff campaign, Westbrook shot career playoff highs in FG% and eFG% outside of his rookie year. Only his TS% was lower in 2011-12 than it was this year, which can be attributed to a far higher FT% this year (something that has little to do with him playing PG vs SG). Most importantly, Durant also found unique success with Westbrook playing more SG during the 2011-12 playoffs. His eFG% was 57%, 5.9% higher than his second career playoff high (which happened to be during this year's playoffs).

There's an argument to be made that the Thunder might just not be as good as they were in 2011-12 with Harden. Westbrook and Durant are, however, yet they played much less efficiently this year than they did in 2011-12. The argument I'm trying to make when I say "create more opportunities for Durant" has nothing to do with shot attempts. Durant already shoots about 20 times a game and there's only so many shots to go around. It has to do with efficiency and offensive fluidity, something that the Thunder's playoff offense lacks despite boasting three Olympians, one of which is the MVP.

On your second point -- two-PG lineups that prioritize P&R and the fast break -- how do you think Rondo, Westbrook and Durant would fare on the court if Durant played more of a Dirk role instead of a T-Mac role (meaning greater participation from him in the P&R instead of Rondo/Westbrook operating with McGary/Adams)? I'm asking you seriously because you seem to have impressive knowledge regarding offensive schemes and trends in the NBA.


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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #26 on: August 08, 2014, 08:55:56 PM »

Offline mgent

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This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.
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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #27 on: August 08, 2014, 08:57:48 PM »

Offline Eja117

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This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.
Most HOFers have made at least one whole all star game by the age of 24

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #28 on: August 08, 2014, 09:02:27 PM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #29 on: August 08, 2014, 09:02:39 PM »

Offline Eja117

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As much as Ibaka is a great pf in the league he's like maybe 12th best.  Rondo is like top 8 at pg. Ibaka may be the better asset in the trade, but it's because of his age and money, not because he is more valuable to his team.