Author Topic: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up? (Locked)  (Read 26764 times)

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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #120 on: August 10, 2014, 09:08:58 PM »

Offline mgent

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This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.
Most HOFers have made at least one whole all star game by the age of 24

I specifically implied he wasn't on track.

He might never be a first ballot, but he does have the potential to one day have a Rodman-type impact on defense, with less rebounding and much better scoring (Rodman wasn't even in the league by the age of 24 and played his first of only two "whole" ASGs at 28).

   Rodman dominated the league in rebounding for a number of years. And by dominate I mean he probably dominated the league in rebounding more than any player's dominated the league in any major statistical category in league history
Also, I've got to call hyperbole on that on last part.  He averaged 18.7 rpg in a season where the second leading rebounder had 15.5.  Wilt averaged 50 ppg when the next closest guy had 31.  He led the league in scoring for the first 7 seasons of his career, and has 5 of the top 7 scoring averages, including the top 3.

He also led the league in rebounding for 11 out of the 14 years he was in the league, and was 2nd the years he didn't.  Rodman led the league in rebounding 7 out of his 14 years and wasn't even close to the top the other years.

You could probably also argue he dominated FG% more than Rodman dominated rebounding in his career.  He led the league in 9 out of 14 years.  His 73% is almost 6% more than the next best Artis Gilmore's, and 18% higher than Kareem who had the second highest that year.  Basically, it's a sin to talk about dominating statistical categories without even mentioning Wilt.  Hell, he led the league in minutes/game 8 times.

  Rodman didn't do it for his entire career, but it's probably the main reason he got into the Hall. In any case, his rebounding rates from 93-95 were 26%, 32% and 49% higher than anyone else in the league. Show me instances of players leading other categories by margins that large for multiple seasons in a row, or even seasons where someone led a category by almost 50% over anyone else in the league.
How about right there, Wilt Chamberlain, 61.5%?  Wilt had 4029 points to Walt's 2495.  The year after that he led by 32%.  I'd love it if you read some of my posts.  Rodman might have led by 25-30% (nice try slipping in his outlier year where he missed a bunch of games) but Wilt was literally twice as dominant.

  Rodman played over 1500 minutes in his "outlier" year, nice try at ignoring data that doesn't fit your argument.

Also how does Rodman's TRB% stack up against other players all time?  It's no where near as untouchable as Wilt's FG%.

   Rodman has 7 of the 8 highest TRB% seasons since they started keeping track of the stat. Not only that, but his best season was 11% better than anyone else has ever done, compared to Wilt's fg% being 7% higher than anyone else. So the situation's basically the opposite of what you're claiming.

  I wonder if you'll follow this up with another lecture about how thoroughly you analyze things when you're discussing players you haven't seen.

(don't worry we can leave out Wilt and Russell's projected numbers which probably dwarf Rodman)

  Let's examine that. In Wilt's best season he pulled down 27.2 rpg. When Rodman had his highest TRB% he averaged 16.8 rebounds a game. But Wilt played 47.8 minutes a game compared to 32 mpg for Rodman. Adjust Rodman's minutes to 47.8 and he'd have averaged 25 rebounds a game. Still behind Wilt, as I'm sure you noticed. But then consider that there were about 103 rebounds in the average Spurs game that year while there were about 145 rebounds a game during Wilt's season. Adjust Rodman's numbers for that and you'd get about 32 rpg compared to Wilt's 27. Do the math. Then tell me again how Wilt's numbers would "dwarf" Rodman's.

  I'd hope your knowledge of Russell's blocks is at least as spot on as your knowledge about Rodman's rebounding.
I didn't ignore it, I pointed out it's randomly higher than all the other years around it where he was very consistent.  Don't get me started on ignoring things that don't fit your argument.  I think I could find plenty of people who agree you are the king of cherrypicking and strawmans on this site.

I honestly think it's pretty unlikely anyone is ever touching Wilt's FG%, or MPG, or his rebounds, or how often he led the league in those categories, not in this era.  That was my point.  You said no one was close to as statistically dominant as Rodman, but you didn't mention it had to be metrics, or pace-controlled stats.  You insinuate no one ever came close to leading by more than 50%, but I give you a number that's 22%!! higher than that (since you have so much fun turning things into percentages) and that doesn't matter.

Rodman had one year where he missed a bunch of games and his consistent percentage flew up by 4%.  Of course, circumstances relating to why the stat randomly changed that year don't interest you, but I appreciate being dissed for pointing it out.  Reggie Evans TRB% beats out all of his other years.

Whoopee, that year Rodman's TRB% was 11% higher than anybody else's in history.  That must have a ton of impact compared to Wilt being 36% higher than the next leading scorer in history, who at least was Jordan (after 3 other of Wilt's seasons).  That's 227% higher than Rodman.  Wilt has the 4 highest scoring titles, Rodman has 1 TRB% season that's better than everybody else's.  That means Wilt has 400% more (being you is fun).
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #121 on: August 10, 2014, 09:45:47 PM »

Offline mgent

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Uh, you said that.  Remember, you implied 14-20 times is what it takes to give you 3 times in 1 month on a regular basis, because that's how often you think Russell did it if he had 7 bpg.  THINK.  Which is really "guess."  IF.  Which means it's not certain.  I think it's incredibly lame to be arguing to death about guesses and estimates.

  No, what I said was the players you listed had 14-20 games a year that were far enough above their average that a similar game from Russell would give him 10+ blocks. Based on that it's reasonable to assume that Russell would  have 3 10+ block games in the same month on a fairly regular basis. You haven't offered anything of note to dispute any of that, other than your attempts to claim that "fairly regularly" means "all the time" or "almost all the time".

You don't think I've given you anything of note, and I don't think you've given me anything of note, so whatever.  You still don't seem to understand, I'm not disputing your theory.  I've said all along your theory is totally possible.  You are the one trying to dispute me and prove me wrong.  Not with facts, but with guesses and estimates and possible projections.  And no, I definitely never said it means all the time.  Obviously "fairly regularly" means some variation of almost every month of almost every year.  If someone told you they brushed their teeth fairly regularly, how often would you guess that was?

Quote
  Ok, so you made the even more ridiculous claim that he might have averaged 7 blocks a game without getting 10 blocks in a game even once.
Wake up, I definitely never claimed that's what happened.  All I said was it's mathematically possible.  To do the complex math and calculate the odds on this you need to calculate ALL the possibilities, not just the most likely ones.  That would completely destroy the point of probability.

Look up the word "claim."  I haven't made any claims or assertions that anything happened, that's all been you.  All I've been doing is pointing out possibilities that you've ignored and assumed didn't happen.  I've said over and over again it either could have, or could not have happened, and you keep saying over and over again that you're right and it probably did happen.

It's extremely possible for Russell to have averaged 7 bpg with 2 or 3 double digit block games per season.

It's totally possible he could have done it with zero 10 block games.

  Explain how that's markedly different from " he might have averaged 7 blocks a game without getting 10 blocks in a game even once".

I really have to explain to you the difference between making a claim that something happened and saying something is mathematically possible?  Why do you think I asked you to look up "claim?"

And again (for the last time) I never argued it would be rare for Russell to have 1 10 block game because it was rare for guys with 30% less blocks, I said it's unlikely Russell had 20 10 block games because guys with [allegedly] 30% less blocks than him were only doing it once.

  Once again, nobody ever claimed 20 10 block games.


No duh, because I doubt it ever happened.  That's what it would have taken to make it "likely possible" that Russell averaged 3 10+ block games in season.  This whole time you led me to believe that's what you thought because of your one and only "those guys in the 90's" argument.  Now I found out you don't even believe you.  That's what it would have taken to make it "likely possible" that Russell averaged 3 10+ block games in season.  You have yet to dispute that despite quoting it over and over, or offered a number other than 14-20.

By the way, what was so wrong about me relaying to you an estimate that I've seen?  I'm not "believing" any estimates, nor am I putting "confidence" into any them, I'm simply guessing 6 based on what I've seen and what sounded reasonable/credible.

   Nothing's wrong with that. Until you start complaining because I relayed an estimate that I've seen (10 bpg). Then it's worth pointing out you're doing the exact thing you're criticizing me for doing.

Right but then that would open you to the exact same criticism you gave me of relaying other estimates while making your argument around 7.  Or do you believe Russell averaged both 7 and 10 blocks at the same time?
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #122 on: August 10, 2014, 10:17:40 PM »

Offline BballTim

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This is probably the only Rondo trade I've ever been on board with in my history on Celticsblog.

Ibaka is not where I thought he'd be by now, but he's still the guy who had 3 10+ block games in 1 month.  I'm not even sure Russell ever did that.  He still has HOF potential.
Most HOFers have made at least one whole all star game by the age of 24

I specifically implied he wasn't on track.

He might never be a first ballot, but he does have the potential to one day have a Rodman-type impact on defense, with less rebounding and much better scoring (Rodman wasn't even in the league by the age of 24 and played his first of only two "whole" ASGs at 28).

   Rodman dominated the league in rebounding for a number of years. And by dominate I mean he probably dominated the league in rebounding more than any player's dominated the league in any major statistical category in league history
Also, I've got to call hyperbole on that on last part.  He averaged 18.7 rpg in a season where the second leading rebounder had 15.5.  Wilt averaged 50 ppg when the next closest guy had 31.  He led the league in scoring for the first 7 seasons of his career, and has 5 of the top 7 scoring averages, including the top 3.

He also led the league in rebounding for 11 out of the 14 years he was in the league, and was 2nd the years he didn't.  Rodman led the league in rebounding 7 out of his 14 years and wasn't even close to the top the other years.

You could probably also argue he dominated FG% more than Rodman dominated rebounding in his career.  He led the league in 9 out of 14 years.  His 73% is almost 6% more than the next best Artis Gilmore's, and 18% higher than Kareem who had the second highest that year.  Basically, it's a sin to talk about dominating statistical categories without even mentioning Wilt.  Hell, he led the league in minutes/game 8 times.

  Rodman didn't do it for his entire career, but it's probably the main reason he got into the Hall. In any case, his rebounding rates from 93-95 were 26%, 32% and 49% higher than anyone else in the league. Show me instances of players leading other categories by margins that large for multiple seasons in a row, or even seasons where someone led a category by almost 50% over anyone else in the league.
How about right there, Wilt Chamberlain, 61.5%?  Wilt had 4029 points to Walt's 2495.  The year after that he led by 32%.  I'd love it if you read some of my posts.  Rodman might have led by 25-30% (nice try slipping in his outlier year where he missed a bunch of games) but Wilt was literally twice as dominant.

  Rodman played over 1500 minutes in his "outlier" year, nice try at ignoring data that doesn't fit your argument.

Also how does Rodman's TRB% stack up against other players all time?  It's no where near as untouchable as Wilt's FG%.

   Rodman has 7 of the 8 highest TRB% seasons since they started keeping track of the stat. Not only that, but his best season was 11% better than anyone else has ever done, compared to Wilt's fg% being 7% higher than anyone else. So the situation's basically the opposite of what you're claiming.

  I wonder if you'll follow this up with another lecture about how thoroughly you analyze things when you're discussing players you haven't seen.

(don't worry we can leave out Wilt and Russell's projected numbers which probably dwarf Rodman)

  Let's examine that. In Wilt's best season he pulled down 27.2 rpg. When Rodman had his highest TRB% he averaged 16.8 rebounds a game. But Wilt played 47.8 minutes a game compared to 32 mpg for Rodman. Adjust Rodman's minutes to 47.8 and he'd have averaged 25 rebounds a game. Still behind Wilt, as I'm sure you noticed. But then consider that there were about 103 rebounds in the average Spurs game that year while there were about 145 rebounds a game during Wilt's season. Adjust Rodman's numbers for that and you'd get about 32 rpg compared to Wilt's 27. Do the math. Then tell me again how Wilt's numbers would "dwarf" Rodman's.

  I'd hope your knowledge of Russell's blocks is at least as spot on as your knowledge about Rodman's rebounding.
I didn't ignore it, I pointed out it's randomly higher than all the other years around it where he was very consistent.

  Did you also point out (or even notice) that you're parading around Wilt's highest fg% season which was randomly higher than any of his others? His second best is a fraction of a percent higher than a few other players have had.

  Don't get me started on ignoring things that don't fit your argument.  I think I could find plenty of people who agree you are the king of cherrypicking and strawmans on this site.

  You hear that a lot when people are losing arguments. Case in point...

I honestly think it's pretty unlikely anyone is ever touching Wilt's FG%, or MPG, or his rebounds, or how often he led the league in those categories, not in this era.  That was my point.  You said no one was close to as statistically dominant as Rodman, but you didn't mention it had to be metrics, or pace-controlled stats.  You insinuate no one ever came close to leading by more than 50%, but I give you a number that's 22%!! higher than that (since you have so much fun turning things into percentages) and that doesn't matter.

  Yes, you were right about that, I forgot about that season. I was arguing from memory from a "should Rodman be in the Hall" discussion from a year or two ago. I didn't disagree with you when you said it, so I don't see why you're so upset about it.

Rodman had one year where he missed a bunch of games and his consistent percentage flew up by 4%.  Of course, circumstances relating to why the stat randomly changed that year don't interest you, but I appreciate being dissed for pointing it out.  Reggie Evans TRB% beats out all of his other years.

  You didn't point out any circumstances relating to why the stat changed. You pointed out that he played fewer games, but he played about 50 games and he played over 30 minutes a game. That's not really a small sample size. All you seem to be saying is that it's higher so it shouldn't count. Again, we could look at Wilt's high fg% season, where he averaged 7 shots a game compared to over 30 a game when he was younger. He led his team in minutes played by a wide margin but was 6th in fg taken and *15th* in fga/minute. But tout that and attack the validity of Rodman's high rebounding season, as is your wont.

  Just out of curiosity, what circumstances do you think you pointed out concerning Rodman's high rebounding season? Is playing 50 games in and of itself a reason for the number to be high? Do you imagine that if he'd played another 30 games his TRB% in those 30 games would be well below average to bring him back down to his other years? If so, why do you think his numbers would suddenly nosedive mid-season? Enlighten me.

Whoopee, that year Rodman's TRB% was 11% higher than anybody else's in history.  That must have a ton of impact compared to Wilt being 36% higher than the next leading scorer in history, who at least was Jordan (after 3 other of Wilt's seasons).  That's 227% higher than Rodman.  Wilt has the 4 highest scoring titles, Rodman has 1 TRB% season that's better than everybody else's.  That means Wilt has 400% more (being you is fun).

  I'm sure being me is fun. I could be you and load up my posts with incorrect claims that I'd later deny making, but I don't think I'd get much of a kick out of it.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #123 on: August 10, 2014, 10:41:09 PM »

fitzhickey

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Dennis Rodman / Wilt nonsense
Can we just return to the topic of Rondo for Ibaka?

Personally I highly doubt OKC does it because Westbrook is their PG for the future.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #124 on: August 10, 2014, 10:48:38 PM »

Offline mgent

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Right, because you're totally even close to being in the lead of either argument.

I make a claim, in a conversation about statistical dominance, about Wilt leading the league in 4 of the main statistical categories for least HALF of his career, including 11 out 14 seasons rebounding, but you switch to a single area argument with TRB%.

So then i prove how Wilt ALSO destroys Rodman in the single season, AND the all-time arguments, with HIGHER percentages and that's nothing.  And you still continue to attack Wilt's 3rd or 4th most dominant category and compare it to Rodman's best, even though he doesn't have 2nd.

Obviously you think you've never been wrong a day in your life.

I could be you and load up my posts with incorrect claims that I'd later deny making, but I don't think I'd get much of a kick out of it.
Yup, keep making stuff up.  I never denied anything, you keep saying I claimed things I clearly didn't.  All I did was try to explain to you that listing possibilities is obviously different from making claims.

That sounds more like something someone would say who's losing arguments.  And I'd love to take a poll, because I easily catch you cherrypicking and making strawmen on an almost daily basis.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2014, 10:55:29 PM by mgent »
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #125 on: August 10, 2014, 10:58:28 PM »

Offline mgent

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I should have just rested my case after I pulled 3 misquotes out of one of your posts.
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #126 on: August 10, 2014, 11:05:40 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Uh, you said that.  Remember, you implied 14-20 times is what it takes to give you 3 times in 1 month on a regular basis, because that's how often you think Russell did it if he had 7 bpg.  THINK.  Which is really "guess."  IF.  Which means it's not certain.  I think it's incredibly lame to be arguing to death about guesses and estimates.

  No, what I said was the players you listed had 14-20 games a year that were far enough above their average that a similar game from Russell would give him 10+ blocks. Based on that it's reasonable to assume that Russell would  have 3 10+ block games in the same month on a fairly regular basis. You haven't offered anything of note to dispute any of that, other than your attempts to claim that "fairly regularly" means "all the time" or "almost all the time".

You don't think I've given you anything of note, and I don't think you've given me anything of note, so whatever.  You still don't seem to understand, I'm not disputing your theory.  I've said all along your theory is totally possible.  You are the one trying to dispute me and prove me wrong.  Not with facts, but with guesses and estimates and possible projections. 

   I've never tried to prove that you're wrong, just that your claim is fairly unlikely. I've been fairly successful in that endeavor.

And no, I definitely never said it means all the time.  Obviously "fairly regularly" means some variation of almost every month of almost every year.  If someone told you they brushed their teeth fairly regularly, how often would you guess that was?

  One sentence, you claim you never said it means all the time. Next sentence, you say it means some variation of almost every time. "Fairly regularly" would obviously have to scale. If someone said "the US regularly wins gold medals in the olympics in basketball" would you take that to mean that they win gold medals in the olympics some variation of almost every month of almost every year? That seems highly unlikely to me. Realistically, if they win every other or every 3rd gold medal they could claim that they win it regularly, so once every 8-12 years, not almost every month of every year. I've tried to explain this to you many times, you're just not getting it.

Quote
  Ok, so you made the even more ridiculous claim that he might have averaged 7 blocks a game without getting 10 blocks in a game even once.
Wake up, I definitely never claimed that's what happened.  All I said was it's mathematically possible.  To do the complex math and calculate the odds on this you need to calculate ALL the possibilities, not just the most likely ones.  That would completely destroy the point of probability.

Look up the word "claim."  I haven't made any claims or assertions that anything happened, that's all been you.  All I've been doing is pointing out possibilities that you've ignored and assumed didn't happen.  I've said over and over again it either could have, or could not have happened, and you keep saying over and over again that you're right and it probably did happen.

It's extremely possible for Russell to have averaged 7 bpg with 2 or 3 double digit block games per season.

It's totally possible he could have done it with zero 10 block games.

  Explain how that's markedly different from " he might have averaged 7 blocks a game without getting 10 blocks in a game even once".

I really have to explain to you the difference between making a claim that something happened and saying something is mathematically possible?  Why do you think I asked you to look up "claim?"

  No, what you need to do is figure out the difference between claiming something happened and claiming something might happen. I didn't say that you said he did average 7 blocks wthout ever having 10 blocks, I said that you claimed that he *might* have. Because you did.

And again (for the last time) I never argued it would be rare for Russell to have 1 10 block game because it was rare for guys with 30% less blocks, I said it's unlikely Russell had 20 10 block games because guys with [allegedly] 30% less blocks than him were only doing it once.

  Once again, nobody ever claimed 20 10 block games.


No duh, because I doubt it ever happened.  That's what it would have taken to make it "likely possible" that Russell averaged 3 10+ block games in season.  This whole time you led me to believe that's what you thought because of your one and only "those guys in the 90's" argument.  Now I found out you don't even believe you.  That's what it would have taken to make it "likely possible" that Russell averaged 3 10+ block games in season.  You have yet to dispute that despite quoting it over and over, or offered a number other than 14-20.

  I'd have trouble counting how many separate times I've explained to you that I wasn't saying what I "led you to believe". I've been saying it's likely he had enough 10+ block games in a season that he'd have probably done it at least once or twice a season, which I've been consistently referring to as "regularly". You haven't found out that I don't believe me. In fact I'm not sure you've found out anything at all.

By the way, what was so wrong about me relaying to you an estimate that I've seen?  I'm not "believing" any estimates, nor am I putting "confidence" into any them, I'm simply guessing 6 based on what I've seen and what sounded reasonable/credible.

   Nothing's wrong with that. Until you start complaining because I relayed an estimate that I've seen (10 bpg). Then it's worth pointing out you're doing the exact thing you're criticizing me for doing.

Right but then that would open you to the exact same criticism you gave me of relaying other estimates while making your argument around 7.  Or do you believe Russell averaged both 7 and 10 blocks at the same time?

  Look. You said you've heard estimates for blocks from Russell as high as 6 and as low as 3. I said that I'd heard 6-8 a lot and as high as 10. You then started attacking the estimate of 10 as not credible, and I said that was a silly thing to do since you were using equally unlikely numbers (3-4). The criticism isn't for your relaying estimates, it's for you attacking me for doing the same thing you're doing.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #127 on: August 10, 2014, 11:30:21 PM »

Offline BballTim

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Right, because you're totally even close to being in the lead of either argument.

I make a claim, in a conversation about statistical dominance, about Wilt leading the league in 4 of the main statistical categories for least HALF of his career, including 11 out 14 seasons rebounding, but you switch to a single area argument with TRB%.

So then i prove how Wilt ALSO destroys Rodman in the single season, AND the all-time arguments, with HIGHER percentages and that's nothing.  And you still continue to attack Wilt's 3rd or 4th most dominant category and compare it to Rodman's best, even though he doesn't have 2nd.

  Here's the original quote:

And by dominate I mean he probably dominated the league in rebounding more than any player's dominated the league in any major statistical category in league history
Obviously you think you've never been wrong a day in your life.

  I didn't "switch to a single area argument". I *made* a "single area argument" and stuck with what we were discussing. You seem to be, yet again, confused about the conversation you were in. I never said Rodman was a better player than Wilt. I never said Rodman dominated as many statistical categories as Wilt. I never even said that he dominated that one category for his entire career. Most of the points you're "winning" aren't part of the argument.

  You were right about Wilt and the scoring when he got 50 a game though. Hold on to that, it's a rarity.

I could be you and load up my posts with incorrect claims that I'd later deny making, but I don't think I'd get much of a kick out of it.
Yup, keep making stuff up.  I never denied anything, you keep saying I claimed things I clearly didn't.  All I did was try to explain to you that listing possibilities is obviously different from making claims.

  Fine. You didn't "claim" that Russell might average 7 blocks a game without ever getting 10 in a  game, you "stated" that Russell might average 7 blocks a game without ever getting 10 in a  game. Feel better now? Also, this might be a good time to complain that you think I'm arguing semantics again.

That sounds more like something someone would say who's losing arguments.  And I'd love to take a poll, because I easily catch you cherrypicking and making strawmen on an almost daily basis.

  At least you think you do.
« Last Edit: August 10, 2014, 11:49:46 PM by BballTim »

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #128 on: August 10, 2014, 11:39:43 PM »

Offline More Banners

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Dennis Rodman / Wilt nonsense
Can we just return to the topic of Rondo for Ibaka?

Personally I highly doubt OKC does it because Westbrook is their PG for the future.

It might do him some good to work off the ball at times, though, if for nothing else save longevity.

Good question, though.  Likely the only "star" trades that make sense are for players at other positions, so Rondo for Ibaka is a nice starter...

And Ainge drafting a PG while already having an allstar-caliber one makes a whole lot of sense.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #129 on: August 10, 2014, 11:42:49 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Dennis Rodman / Wilt nonsense
Can we just return to the topic of Rondo for Ibaka?

Personally I highly doubt OKC does it because Westbrook is their PG for the future.

Again, I don't mean to seem self-important, but I really believe in the point I made below. I think it's incredibly relevant to this thread because it means Rondo/Westbrook could coexist (well, maybe if the Thunder regained their senses and replaced Scott Brooks with a better coach).

A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.

Ball-dominant PGs do not maximize the team's talent when paired with a scorer like Durant. For Westbrook to maintain his style of play and continue playing PG he'd have to be the alpha dog (a la Allen Iverson). Getting the ball out of his hands and into the hands of a distributor could possibly eliminate many of Westbrook's wild shots (making the offense more efficient) and create more opportunities for Durant.

You act like that isn't a byproduct of Scott Brooks' offense. Remember when Westbrook went out back in January, and Durant was given the keys to the kingdom? Do you know how many more shots Durant took when Westbrook was sidelined, and couldn't "take away" shots and opportunities for KD? I'll give you this one: he averaged a massive one-and-a-half more shots per game, going from 18.7 to 21.2 (source: http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder-was-russell-westbrook-taking-away-shots-from-kevin-durant/article/3926876 )

Swapping players in and out while keeping the same coach and the same offensive schemes results in a change that is fairly immaterial -- something that people persist in overlooking when they talk about the Thunder's two best players.

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

There's a reason teams don't typically run two point guard lineups with pass-first players like Rondo, though.

You say "pass-first" as if it means Rondo can't score. I merely used the term to highlight Rondo's game being a fit with Westbrook and Durant. When healthy and surrounded by shooters he capitalizes on open lanes as well as any PG. In 2012 Rondo shot 46% of his shots within three feet. He shot 58% on such shots. Derrick Rose's most efficient year within 3 feet was 61% (and in that year, he only shot 29% of his shots that close to the basket). And can we get BBallTim in here to explain that Rondo is at least an average mid-range shooter?

I didn't say anything about Rondo's shooting. Please don't attribute me with an argument I'm not making.

To explain my point: Most of the time, you see the a two point guard backcourt when a team like, say, the Suns, has a pair of point guards that look to score off the pick and roll, and use their pair of capable ball handlers to largely disregard the half court offense and instead prioritize quick fast break points the majority of the time. With Rondo as the primary ball handler, I want more of a Jodie Meeks type (on offense, anyway) at the 2 than a Russell Westbrook (who I am a big fan of, incidentally).

I do certainly think Scott Brooks plays a big role in the mismanagement of Westbrook and Durant, which is one of the reasons I think he should be fired. I don't think your point about Durant's regular season shot attempts with/without Westbrook tells the whole story though. After all, OKC's problem isn't in the regular season but rather in the playoffs, where ball movement ceases to exist (to the naked eye).

Let's look at 2011-12 (Westbrook healthy, playoff career high minutes at SG, trip to Finals), 2012-13 (no Westbrook) and 2013-14 (healthy Westbrook, MVP Durant, yet frustrating WCF loss). The reason I attempt to look at all three is because I think my perception of the Westbrook/Durant duo is being misinterpreted. I think Westbrook helps Durant as a player regardless of the position he plays.  This is shown by the differential in the percentage of assisted baskets between Durant's 2012-13 playoff campaign and his 2013-14 campaign. Of his two-point FGM, 23.3% were assisted in 2012-13. In 2013-14, 53%. A similar differential can be seen in his percentage of three-pointers assisted. These stats suggest Westbrook takes pressure off Durant, creating more open/less contested shots for him. Westbrook's prowess as a scorer and an offensive threat are the same whether he plays PG or SG. When he's off the floor, Durant is forced into isolation.

My argument is more that Westbrook would help Durant even more so and be a more efficient player at SG. Now look at the 2011-12 playoffs. Westbrook played 33% of his minutes at SG, the highest percentage of his playoff career (and it's not even close; next highest percentage is 8% in 2013-14). During the playoff campaign, Westbrook shot career playoff highs in FG% and eFG% outside of his rookie year. Only his TS% was lower in 2011-12 than it was this year, which can be attributed to a far higher FT% this year (something that has little to do with him playing PG vs SG). Most importantly, Durant also found unique success with Westbrook playing more SG during the 2011-12 playoffs. His eFG% was 57%, 5.9% higher than his second career playoff high (which happened to be during this year's playoffs).

There's an argument to be made that the Thunder might just not be as good as they were in 2011-12 with Harden. Westbrook and Durant are, however, yet they played much less efficiently this year than they did in 2011-12. The argument I'm trying to make when I say "create more opportunities for Durant" has nothing to do with shot attempts. Durant already shoots about 20 times a game and there's only so many shots to go around. It has to do with efficiency and offensive fluidity, something that the Thunder's playoff offense lacks despite boasting three Olympians, one of which is the MVP.

On your second point -- two-PG lineups that prioritize P&R and the fast break -- how do you think Rondo, Westbrook and Durant would fare on the court if Durant played more of a Dirk role instead of a T-Mac role (meaning greater participation from him in the P&R instead of Rondo/Westbrook operating with McGary/Adams)? I'm asking you seriously because you seem to have impressive knowledge regarding offensive schemes and trends in the NBA.

Is Westbrook their PG of the future? Or is the team better when he plays SG?


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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #130 on: August 11, 2014, 12:03:30 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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Can we just return to the topic of Rondo for Ibaka?

Personally I highly doubt OKC does it because Westbrook is their PG for the future.

Again, I don't mean to seem self-important, but I really believe in the point I made below. I think it's incredibly relevant to this thread because it means Rondo/Westbrook could coexist (well, maybe if the Thunder regained their senses and replaced Scott Brooks with a better coach).

A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.

Ball-dominant PGs do not maximize the team's talent when paired with a scorer like Durant. For Westbrook to maintain his style of play and continue playing PG he'd have to be the alpha dog (a la Allen Iverson). Getting the ball out of his hands and into the hands of a distributor could possibly eliminate many of Westbrook's wild shots (making the offense more efficient) and create more opportunities for Durant.

You act like that isn't a byproduct of Scott Brooks' offense. Remember when Westbrook went out back in January, and Durant was given the keys to the kingdom? Do you know how many more shots Durant took when Westbrook was sidelined, and couldn't "take away" shots and opportunities for KD? I'll give you this one: he averaged a massive one-and-a-half more shots per game, going from 18.7 to 21.2 (source: http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thunder-was-russell-westbrook-taking-away-shots-from-kevin-durant/article/3926876 )

Swapping players in and out while keeping the same coach and the same offensive schemes results in a change that is fairly immaterial -- something that people persist in overlooking when they talk about the Thunder's two best players.

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

There's a reason teams don't typically run two point guard lineups with pass-first players like Rondo, though.

You say "pass-first" as if it means Rondo can't score. I merely used the term to highlight Rondo's game being a fit with Westbrook and Durant. When healthy and surrounded by shooters he capitalizes on open lanes as well as any PG. In 2012 Rondo shot 46% of his shots within three feet. He shot 58% on such shots. Derrick Rose's most efficient year within 3 feet was 61% (and in that year, he only shot 29% of his shots that close to the basket). And can we get BBallTim in here to explain that Rondo is at least an average mid-range shooter?

I didn't say anything about Rondo's shooting. Please don't attribute me with an argument I'm not making.

To explain my point: Most of the time, you see the a two point guard backcourt when a team like, say, the Suns, has a pair of point guards that look to score off the pick and roll, and use their pair of capable ball handlers to largely disregard the half court offense and instead prioritize quick fast break points the majority of the time. With Rondo as the primary ball handler, I want more of a Jodie Meeks type (on offense, anyway) at the 2 than a Russell Westbrook (who I am a big fan of, incidentally).

I do certainly think Scott Brooks plays a big role in the mismanagement of Westbrook and Durant, which is one of the reasons I think he should be fired. I don't think your point about Durant's regular season shot attempts with/without Westbrook tells the whole story though. After all, OKC's problem isn't in the regular season but rather in the playoffs, where ball movement ceases to exist (to the naked eye).

Let's look at 2011-12 (Westbrook healthy, playoff career high minutes at SG, trip to Finals), 2012-13 (no Westbrook) and 2013-14 (healthy Westbrook, MVP Durant, yet frustrating WCF loss). The reason I attempt to look at all three is because I think my perception of the Westbrook/Durant duo is being misinterpreted. I think Westbrook helps Durant as a player regardless of the position he plays.  This is shown by the differential in the percentage of assisted baskets between Durant's 2012-13 playoff campaign and his 2013-14 campaign. Of his two-point FGM, 23.3% were assisted in 2012-13. In 2013-14, 53%. A similar differential can be seen in his percentage of three-pointers assisted. These stats suggest Westbrook takes pressure off Durant, creating more open/less contested shots for him. Westbrook's prowess as a scorer and an offensive threat are the same whether he plays PG or SG. When he's off the floor, Durant is forced into isolation.

My argument is more that Westbrook would help Durant even more so and be a more efficient player at SG. Now look at the 2011-12 playoffs. Westbrook played 33% of his minutes at SG, the highest percentage of his playoff career (and it's not even close; next highest percentage is 8% in 2013-14). During the playoff campaign, Westbrook shot career playoff highs in FG% and eFG% outside of his rookie year. Only his TS% was lower in 2011-12 than it was this year, which can be attributed to a far higher FT% this year (something that has little to do with him playing PG vs SG). Most importantly, Durant also found unique success with Westbrook playing more SG during the 2011-12 playoffs. His eFG% was 57%, 5.9% higher than his second career playoff high (which happened to be during this year's playoffs).

There's an argument to be made that the Thunder might just not be as good as they were in 2011-12 with Harden. Westbrook and Durant are, however, yet they played much less efficiently this year than they did in 2011-12. The argument I'm trying to make when I say "create more opportunities for Durant" has nothing to do with shot attempts. Durant already shoots about 20 times a game and there's only so many shots to go around. It has to do with efficiency and offensive fluidity, something that the Thunder's playoff offense lacks despite boasting three Olympians, one of which is the MVP.

On your second point -- two-PG lineups that prioritize P&R and the fast break -- how do you think Rondo, Westbrook and Durant would fare on the court if Durant played more of a Dirk role instead of a T-Mac role (meaning greater participation from him in the P&R instead of Rondo/Westbrook operating with McGary/Adams)? I'm asking you seriously because you seem to have impressive knowledge regarding offensive schemes and trends in the NBA.

Is Westbrook their PG of the future? Or is the team better when he plays SG?

I'm completely with you on Scott Brooks.  To me, he's kind of like a poor man's Doc, only with those scifi glasses ;D  What I mean by that is, if you've ever heard him in a huddle on tnt etc., he always says the same thing - get stops and push it.  It's all about defense ::)  Yeah, defense is important, but his half court offense is atrocious and, like Doc's, never changes.  Westbrook and Durant don't play well together, and you're probably right about moving Russell to the 2, because Reggie Jackson was huge against Memphis, but naturally I'd like to have a larger sample size so that we can see if such a lineup would be better.  It certainly can't be any worse than the one with Sefolosha, Perk, and Ibaka.  Even when Serge is contributing offensively, OKC is always playing 3 on 5, maximum.  They at least need another scorer in their starting five.  Whether such a player, like Lamb or Jackson, comes from within or not I don't know, but they have to do something.  Losing Harden was huge, offensively, even though he was their 6th man, and they've never been able to replace his contribution offensively, and not just in terms of points, because Harden is a better passer than Westbrook and Durant combined lol.  Imagine if Rondo played with Durant instead of Westbrook.  KD would average 40 lol, because, guess what, Rondo actually passes the ball ;D

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #131 on: August 11, 2014, 12:12:08 AM »

fitzhickey

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Russell Westbrook is no slouch when it comes to passing. Over his career he has averaged 7 a game, which isn't shabby at all.

Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #132 on: August 11, 2014, 10:59:37 AM »

Offline mgent

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Tim, you're obviously the one constantly confusing the conversation you're in.

You're honestly trying to say he could do it once or twice a year and that would be considered a fairly regular basis?  And you honestly haven't even bothered to say that until now?  That gives you absolutely ZERO credibility (not to mention your ridiculous Olympics example, there's 328 NBA games for each olympic tourney).

Seriously, you need a dictionary in the worst way.  Regularly, by definition, means frequently.  In what universe, other than yours, does "fairly frequent" mean 1/4th of the time?  I was playing by the assumption it meant at least 1/2 the time, and you knew that this whole time.

Told you a LONG time ago you were going to try to, at some point, suddenly start your crazy semantics.
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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #133 on: August 11, 2014, 11:07:10 AM »

Offline mgent

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Right, because you're totally even close to being in the lead of either argument.

I make a claim, in a conversation about statistical dominance, about Wilt leading the league in 4 of the main statistical categories for least HALF of his career, including 11 out 14 seasons rebounding, but you switch to a single area argument with TRB%.

So then i prove how Wilt ALSO destroys Rodman in the single season, AND the all-time arguments, with HIGHER percentages and that's nothing.  And you still continue to attack Wilt's 3rd or 4th most dominant category and compare it to Rodman's best, even though he doesn't have 2nd.

  Here's the original quote:

And by dominate I mean he probably dominated the league in rebounding more than any player's dominated the league in any major statistical category in league history
Obviously you think you've never been wrong a day in your life.

  I didn't "switch to a single area argument". I *made* a "single area argument" and stuck with what we were discussing. You seem to be, yet again, confused about the conversation you were in. I never said Rodman was a better player than Wilt. I never said Rodman dominated as many statistical categories as Wilt. I never even said that he dominated that one category for his entire career. Most of the points you're "winning" aren't part of the argument.

  You were right about Wilt and the scoring when he got 50 a game though. Hold on to that, it's a rarity.

I could be you and load up my posts with incorrect claims that I'd later deny making, but I don't think I'd get much of a kick out of it.
Yup, keep making stuff up.  I never denied anything, you keep saying I claimed things I clearly didn't.  All I did was try to explain to you that listing possibilities is obviously different from making claims.

  Fine. You didn't "claim" that Russell might average 7 blocks a game without ever getting 10 in a  game, you "stated" that Russell might average 7 blocks a game without ever getting 10 in a  game. Feel better now? Also, this might be a good time to complain that you think I'm arguing semantics again.

That sounds more like something someone would say who's losing arguments.  And I'd love to take a poll, because I easily catch you cherrypicking and making strawmen on an almost daily basis.

  At least you think you do.
Originally, you weren't trying to say I claimed he MIGHT have done it, you were trying to say I claimed he did it.  It sucks when half of the debate is trying to stop you from putting words in my mouth and then having you reply to what you THINK I said.

You honestly can't see a difference there no matter how many times I explain it?

And of course I catch you doing those things.  Although, maybe you don't know it because you have some crazy obscure definitions for cherrypicker and strawman that nobody else does.
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Re: Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up?
« Reply #134 on: August 11, 2014, 11:18:51 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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I think this thread has run its course.

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