Would Anyone Swap Rondo for Serge Ibaka Straight-Up? (Locked)

[TheFlex]

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=k58we9s

Would OKC do this?: What's more important to a Thunder team starving for a ring: maximizing Russell Westbrook's transcendent talent, or maximizing Serge Ibaka's incredibly valuable but not quite transcendent talent? Moving Westbrook to SG next to a passing whiz like Rondo could transform the Thunder from a tantalizing two-man show into an unstoppable offensive force. They'd lose Ibaka's elite rim protection and floor-spacing, but it's not unreasonable to think that Steven Adams could fill some of those gaps as he enters year 2. It also helps that they just drafted Mitch McGary, who made a strong impression as an NBA-ready, two-way big man in the Orlando SL. Here's their potential lineup:

Rondo/R. Jackson/Semaj Christon/S. Telfair
Westbrook/J. Lamb/A. Morrow/Andre Roberson
Durant/P. Jones III/[A. Roberson] (I think Huestis will spend this season in the D-League)
McGary/N. Collison/G. Jerrett
S. Adams/Perkins

That's an extremely impressive team, especially if Roberson (age 22) emerges as a contributor (6'7", can play both wing positions, shot the 3 and defended well in college).

Would Boston do this?: I can't think of a better prospect realistically available in exchange for Rondo than Serge Ibaka. He's 6'10", regarded as one of if not the best rim protectors in the league, and displays a growing offensive prowess. He can play both PF and C and he's extremely mobile on the fast break. There's no question that power forward would be crowded with Sullinger and Olynyk -- and for the time being, Bass -- already on board. However, all three of them can play spot minutes at C, especially Ibaka and Olynyk. This gives the Cs a lot of options:

Entering 2014-15 with Sully/Ibaka starting

Smart/Pressey/[Bradley]
Bradley/Thornton/J. Young
Green/Turner/Wallace/[J. Young]
Sully/Olynyk/Bass (will Ainge move Bass just to move him?)
Ibaka/Zeller/Faverani/J. Anthony

This allows Danny to keep all three big men on the team, showcase all of them, and then decide which of the three he'd like to keep (maybe he'd like to keep all three). Let's say Sully has his breakout season and averages 16/10 (not unrealistic) on 45/30/80% shooting. Danny is then armed with picks and a steadily improving stud in Sully to secure a high pick in next year's draft. Let's say Boston finishes as the 10th seed and gets a pick in the 7-10 range. Could a breakout Sully, #7-10 and one of the LAC/CLE picks land you a top 2 pick in next year's draft? I think so, and we would hopefully enter 2015-16 with a core of Smart/Bradley/Young/Ibaka/Jahlil Okafor/Olynyk with a whole stash of picks left (thanks Brooklyn!) plus whatever we get for Green, Bass, Thornton, etc.

Entering 2014-15 with Ibaka/Olynyk starting

To me this is a lesser option because I believe it'd be difficult to maintain Sully's value while playing behind Ibaka and Olynyk. On top of his lack of enthusiasm about being demoted, Sully would play less minutes with lesser teammates (albeit against lesser defenders, too). This would essentially be Danny's backup option if Sully comes in out of shape. Could you package fat, disappointed Sully with Green to Indy for a protected pick, Solomon Hill and filler? The idea would be the same: working towards pairing Ibaka with one of the elite center prospects next year while receiving value for Olynyk and Sully; only in this scenario, Sully would already be gone by next June for pennies on the dollar, and Olynyk would likely have to be traded with our pick (unless we get lucky) in order to get Okafor/Towns/Turner. Though it would be fun to see this lineup play next year:

Smart/Bradley/J. Young/Ibaka/Olynyk... Shooting, shooting, shooting!

Anyways, I'll stop ranting and leave it open to discussion.

P.S. Other potential pieces that could be involved in this deal: Green, Bass, Sully, Olynyk, BOS stash of picks; Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Andre Roberson, Perry Jones III, McGary, Adams, OKC stash of picks.

[moiso]

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard. 

[D.o.s.]

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

yup.

[Eja117]

Leaning towards yes. Depends on some factors like how much money Ibaka wants, etc

[TheFlex]

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

[Tr1boy]

In a heartbeat

[D.o.s.]

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

There's a reason teams don't typically run two point guard lineups with pass-first players like Rondo, though.

[Eja117]

A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

[D.o.s.]

A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.

[Rondo9]

No

[mikestar]

Hell yes.

[TheFlex]

I would make the trade instantly and OKC wouldn't make the trade in a million years.  Ibaka is one of the best defensive bigs in the league and Westbrook is a top 2 point guard.

I think a healthy Rose + CP3 are better but now we're nitpicking. That's not the point (as I'm not suggesting they give up Westbrook). It's not unconventional to suggest that Westbrook may be better suited as an SG, especially after Phoenix's success running two-PG and three-guard lineups last year.

Your point about OKC's willingness to do the deal is valid. What about Rondo + a BKN pick for Ibaka? Would Boston still do it? Would OKC be more inclined to accept?

There's a reason teams don't typically run two point guard lineups with pass-first players like Rondo, though.

You say "pass-first" as if it means Rondo can't score. I merely used the term to highlight Rondo's game being a fit with Westbrook and Durant. When healthy and surrounded by shooters he capitalizes on open lanes as well as any PG. In 2012 Rondo shot 46% of his shots within three feet. He shot 58% on such shots. Derrick Rose's most efficient year within 3 feet was 61% (and in that year, he only shot 29% of his shots that close to the basket). And can we get BBallTim in here to explain that Rondo is at least an average mid-range shooter?

[TheFlex]

A big part of the attraction is Ibaka's younger age, but it should be realized that Rondo has by far the more impressive resume, so money matters here a lot.

Also still trying to get over the last time we got what we thought was a pretty good forward from the Thunder and just ended up with a cancer.

NBA players are increasingly paid by expectation of future performance, rather than receiving contracts based on past results, unless they're at that Carmelo/Kobe level.

For the record, I also don't think that Westbrook should be moved to the 2 simply because he shoots often. That seems like an arbitrary distinction.

Ball-dominant PGs do not maximize the team's talent when paired with a scorer like Durant. For Westbrook to maintain his style of play and continue playing PG he'd have to be the alpha dog (a la Allen Iverson). Getting the ball out of his hands and into the hands of a distributor could possibly eliminate many of Westbrook's wild shots (making the offense more efficient) and create more opportunities for Durant.

[mmmmm]

I 'get' that the idea here is to trade from a position of perceived surplus (point guard, because we just drafted Smart, so in some folks' eyes that makes Rondo "expendable").

But why are you doing so to add to another position of perceived surplus (Power Forward)?

'Not crazy about this deal as proposed.

And given that OKC seems committed to Westbrook as PG (and he's a poor 3PT shooter who would not be a great space maker next to Rondo), I doubt they would be crazy about it either.   

[the_Bird]

The deal doesn't make sense in the context of "we're already got a ton of power forwards," but I don't imagine it would be TOO hard to find a team that would take Sully in exchange for a decent young PG.  As long as he's not pushing 300 pounds.