Historical 1st pick and the team that won it

[Moranis]

I know I had this in the now locked thread on the Sixers, but I do think it is worth examining both from a historical perspective and for the tanking contingent (of which I'm often grouped though I dispute). 

The current iteration of the lottery went into effect for the 1994 draft.  Orlando won the 1st pick in 1992 and drafted Shaq.  It barely missed the playoffs in 1993 and won the first pick again.  The league immediately changed the rules to minimize the odds for the better teams.  Even with that change, the worst team rarely picks first.  In fact, Cleveland and Orlando in back to back years (03 and 04) are the only two teams that had the worst record that actually won the first pick.  Philadelphia in 1996 is the only team to have the 2nd worst record to win the 1st pick.  Having the 3rd worst record has historically landed the #1 pick more times than any other finish position winning the first pick 6 separate times including Cleveland last year (Bennett). 

2014 - Cleveland 9th best chance
2013 - Cleveland 3rd best chance
2012 - New Orleans 4th best chance
2011 - Cleveland 8th best chance (they won with LA's pick not their own)
2010 - Washington 5th best chance
2009 - L.A. Clippers 3rd best chance
2008 - Chicago 9th best chance
2007 - Portland 6th best chance
2006 - Toronto 5th best chance
2005 - Milwaukee 6th best chance
2004 - Orlando 1st best chance
2003 - Cleveland 1st best chance
2002 - Houston 5th best chance
2001 - Washington 3rd best chance
2000 - New Jersey 7th best chance
1999 - Chicago 3rd best chance
1998 - L.A. Clippers 3rd best chance
1997 - San Antonio 3rd best chance
1996 - Philadelphia 2nd best chance
1995 - Golden State 5th best chance
1994 - Milwaukee 4th best chance

Now all that said, obviously the worst team is guaranteed to pick no worse than 4th, which is certainly a better spot to be in than say 8th.  Boston, for example, with one less win this past season would have selected 5th, which would have been Dante Exum as opposed to Marcus Smart (obviously Smart may have the better career, but Exum is talked of as a greater ceiling player now by most everyone).

[GetLucky]

This is what I find funny about the whole "change or eliminate the lottery" hoopla by people (especially the NBA officials) because the lottery is functioning exactly how they intended it to- making it so that having the worst record is not a distinct advantage. What did they think would happen, I wonder? 

[Mr October]

No matter how the NBA sets the odds it is still a lottery, and no team is likely to land at number 1.

But teams do tank to try to get the highest odds at the number one slot, or tank to nearly guarantee themselves into a top 5 pick. Most years there isn't a consensus number one franchise changing superstar anyway.

This past year for example there were three tiers to the lottery.

A top 3-4 pick was considered roughly equal.

The next tier was strong through 8.

And then you had the rest of the lottery and mid first round.

I'm glad the Celtics didn't do everything possible to win enough games to be 10th worst. I am glad they got a number 6 pick in this particular draft.

Milwaukee and Philly weren't just tanking to get the number one spot. They tanked to lock themselves in the bottom 4, and have have the best odds at number one.

I thought the NBA overreacted after the Orlando back to back number ones, and would like to see the odds return closer to that 1992 scale. Right now there is too much incentive to be bottom 4 or 5.

[Who]

I would like it if all the picks (or at least top 10) were done in lottery instead of just top 3 picks.