Author Topic: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking  (Read 6515 times)

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New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« on: July 30, 2014, 04:35:10 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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Hello all, I'm a longtime lurker on here and decided to make an account. (Not sure if this should've gone in the "Around the NBA" or "The Draft Section," so I'm sorry if I chose the wrong one.)

All of this talk of a lottery odds and possible new systems got me thinking, and I always go back to one idea that I think would make the turnover rate of bad teams to good ones quick while also keeping the league competitive.

My idea is this:
1) The worst pick goes to the team with the worst record- This makes sure that the truly awful teams (2012 Bobcats, for example) do not miss out on the transcendant talents (Anthony Davis that year) and get stuck with the likes of a so-so player (MKG). This concept is used in all sports and should not be disputed. Now, you all may be thinking, "Won't that encourage tanking?" You're right- if it was by itself. On to the second part:

2) The lottery is kept, used to determine the picks of all teams that missed the playoffs- See Rule 3

3) Lottery odds are determined by days spent in the top 8 of your conference, with the highest odds (for #2) starting with the team that spent the most days in the playoff race. This does a few things. For one, it makes tanking a calculated risk. If you are a truly awful team, you are guaranteed the #1 pick. However, if you miss out, your odds go from the best possible ending to the worst one- the lowest odds at #2. This rule also makes the league incredibly competitive, especially early on. Even the teams that know they won't make the playoffs will fight really early on, scraping for those few extra days in the "playoff standings" before the law of averages works out. Also, teams that are "mediocre" will quickly add talent. Think the Sixers- they intentionally traded away talent (think Turner and now Thad Young) in order to tank. With this system, it would be much more risky- they could finish second worst and end up with #14. Conversely, if they kept the talent, they would have kept a more competitive team that had higher lottery odds. (Remember their early-season wins before the GM traded half the team?) This encourages competitive spirit. This system also award teams that push hard for the 7th/8th playoff spot and just miss. They can add good young talent and push for the playoffs the next year with a better roster. This system, by virtue of that, encourages teams in 8th seed contention, rather than scaring them away (because the "treadmill of mediocrity" is no more). And if teams do get the 8th seed, they are likely pushed out the next year by the 9th seed who added young talent, and then they get young talent to fuel their run.   

Now this system is not perfect, I recognize that. Teams that tank and fail are in the "treadmill of turrible" as Charles Barkley would probably say. However, most GM's would not take the enormous risk of tanking, and if they failed, their team would probably bottom out somewhere in the next few years, anyway. However, I think this system solves a lot of problems, including the tanking, the truly awful teams, the "mediocre 7th/8th seeds," and the lack of competition/slow starts early on.

What do you guys think? I'm really looking forward to hearing your thoughts on this idea.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 05:47:46 PM by GetLucky »

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2014, 04:38:35 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I do not think Adam Silver reads these boards.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2014, 05:55:40 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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I do not think Adam Silver reads these boards.

You never know hahaha. I just wanted to see what others thought about this idea, as it is different from anything that has been proposed before.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2014, 05:57:24 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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Seriously -- lets save our vitriol for the pro sterling posts and the Rondo trade proposals that don't work under the CBA.

This is an interesting idea. I'm going to think about it for a couple hours before really getting in depth.

also, welcome to CB. Here's a TP.
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Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2014, 06:26:07 PM »

Offline loco_91

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Last year I made a proposal called pick-swap, and it is very elegant.

Before the season begins, teams may swap picks with each other. They can also choose not to, but if they do not swap, their lotto odds are cut in half.

Bad teams will swap picks with each other, and then they will no longer have an incentive to lose games. Their only incentive is to seem like they are going to be bad, so as to attract an equally hapless trading partner.

It would even set up late-season games between swap partners where if you win, you stand to improve your lottery odds.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2014, 06:26:41 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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It's a lot easier to just get rid of lottery. Just go draft order by records (extremely important to fix conference as well) add in one single provision that no team can pick in the top 5 in two out of four years. Simple and easy fix.

How it works:
 Basically worst teams A, B, C, D, and E that got picks 1-5 because of record in 2015 are guaranteed to pick 6 or lower no matter what their record in years 2016-2018. It also guarantees a five team top of draft shuffle every year. And unlike other plans it does not hurt a struggling team by awarding them at max a 1, 6, 6, 6 overall picks in four year span.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2014, 06:27:17 PM »

Offline bhbf08

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Interesting idea, but I'm not sure it's better than the current system.  A team like Philly will still be rewarded for losing on purpose.  You could also have teams that play really hard, but just lack quality or get hit with major injuries finish 2 and 3, and they get slammed for doing so and pushed back to 13/14.  Like I said, interesting idea, but I think the current system is fine.  It doesn't guarantee anything to a team who tanks (other than a top 5-6 pick) and gives hope to middle of the pack teams who might get lucky and bump up to top 3.   

There can be tanking in any sport.  Did Houston tank to get Clowney?  Probably.  It's just part of the game and it will never be fixed.  Teams will always tank for a shot at #1.... 

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2014, 06:30:05 PM »

Offline incoherent

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So I've seen this before, except you've added in that the last place team will get the 1st pick always, and not the 15th pick like others have suggested.

I like the idea a lot, like you said, its not perfect.. but the essence of it.. to create a more competitive regular season, and rewarding those who just missed on the playoffs.  That is something I can get on board with as a life long NBA fan.

Ok so instead of making a new thread, here's my idea: NBA Draft Playoffs

Pretty self explanatory.  Have the non-playoff teams play a tournament.. not like 7 game series more like 1 or best of 3.. but have them play it out on the floor. Can you imagine us saying stuff like "We only got Marcus Smart because Rondo had a triple double in the NBA Draft Finals and now you want us to trade Rondo?"  The games might be embarrassing to play for the players but it would be fun to watch as fans.


Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2014, 06:40:25 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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First of all, welcome to Celticsblog! :)  Honestly, I think the first thing that needs to happen in regards to changing the draft is a rule that says if you win the lottery with your own pick, your team will not have a selection in the top 3, let's say, for the next 5 years, or something like that.  Now, if you trade picks and end up with the 1st overall selection, that's fine, but we simply can't have a situation like the one that we've seen with Cleveland, because that's just ridiculous, imo. 

I also believe that the league should do away with 'protected' picks - once you trade your pick, you shouldn't be able to get it back unless you trade for it.  If your pick turns into a lottery pick because your team completely imploded and underachieved because of injuries and/or chemistry issues, that's not the problem of the team that now owns your selection.  Get over it.  I really hate the whole, 'top 10 protected' crap.  Stop it.  All draft picks should be unprotected.  Period.  It would make teams far more cognizant of the potential value of their draft picks, to say the least.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2014, 07:25:48 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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First of all, welcome to Celticsblog! :)  Honestly, I think the first thing that needs to happen in regards to changing the draft is a rule that says if you win the lottery with your own pick, your team will not have a selection in the top 3, let's say, for the next 5 years, or something like that.  Now, if you trade picks and end up with the 1st overall selection, that's fine, but we simply can't have a situation like the one that we've seen with Cleveland, because that's just ridiculous, imo. 

I also believe that the league should do away with 'protected' picks - once you trade your pick, you shouldn't be able to get it back unless you trade for it.  If your pick turns into a lottery pick because your team completely imploded and underachieved because of injuries and/or chemistry issues, that's not the problem of the team that now owns your selection.  Get over it.  I really hate the whole, 'top 10 protected' crap.  Stop it.  All draft picks should be unprotected.  Period.  It would make teams far more cognizant of the potential value of their draft picks, to say the least.

Limiting top picks in a row is how my system would work.  Also great idea about getting rid of pick protection.  I'd love that as a fan but GMs would not go for it. 

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2014, 07:30:34 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Interesting idea, but I'm not sure it's better than the current system.  A team like Philly will still be rewarded for losing on purpose.  You could also have teams that play really hard, but just lack quality or get hit with major injuries finish 2 and 3, and they get slammed for doing so and pushed back to 13/14.  Like I said, interesting idea, but I think the current system is fine.  It doesn't guarantee anything to a team who tanks (other than a top 5-6 pick) and gives hope to middle of the pack teams who might get lucky and bump up to top 3.   

There can be tanking in any sport.  Did Houston tank to get Clowney?  Probably.  It's just part of the game and it will never be fixed.  Teams will always tank for a shot at #1....

I think lottery hurts rebuilding in general. Teams don't tank unless they feel they can not win or compete. By giving a middle of a pack team a shot at top picks you only hurt the poor teams that are worse than them.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2014, 07:39:30 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I think lottery hurts rebuilding in general. Teams don't tank unless they feel they can not win or compete. By giving a middle of a pack team a shot at top picks you only hurt the poor teams that are worse than them.

That's the whole point of the lottery: punish tanking by decreasing the value of being a bad team.  Even if you make it so that tanking is not a good idea, teams are still going to try.
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Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2014, 07:47:49 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I think lottery hurts rebuilding in general. Teams don't tank unless they feel they can not win or compete. By giving a middle of a pack team a shot at top picks you only hurt the poor teams that are worse than them.

That's the whole point of the lottery: punish tanking by decreasing the value of being a bad team.  Even if you make it so that tanking is not a good idea, teams are still going to try.

That is why it shouldn't be around is what I say. It doesn't work and we can all agree teams are still tanking.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2014, 08:29:18 PM »

Offline GetLucky

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Thank you all for your contributions to this thread and your warm welcome! One thing I forgot to add is that this system wouldn't necessarily eliminate tanking, it would be more for increasing the turnaround time, as the worst team gets the theoretically best talent and the fringe playoff teams get more talent. Some teams would probably still tank for the Anthony Davis's of the world, but that's okay because then they are on a fast track to improve (like the Colts in football after Suck for Luck) and would then focus on getting better to increase lottery odds for #2 (because, in theory, the number one pick would move the dial on talent enough to make tanking a big risk). Then, another team would get number one and there would be much less, if any, repeat number one picks. (There are in football and baseball, but that's because the teams are so much larger, unlike basketball where top-heavy talent is enough to make a team competitive.)  This system is mostly to eliminate teams like the Sixers who consistently stink and will for the next 3-4 years, at least under their current model.

Re: New Poster's Idea To Fix Lottery/Tanking
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2014, 09:28:08 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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I think lottery hurts rebuilding in general. Teams don't tank unless they feel they can not win or compete. By giving a middle of a pack team a shot at top picks you only hurt the poor teams that are worse than them.

That's the whole point of the lottery: punish tanking by decreasing the value of being a bad team.  Even if you make it so that tanking is not a good idea, teams are still going to try.

That is why it shouldn't be around is what I say. It doesn't work and we can all agree teams are still tanking.

You can't stop teams from tanking.  You can only make it so that tanking is a bad strategy.

My idea would be to tweak the revenue sharing formula to reward teams that do well with limited resources.  Make tanking cost teams some actual money.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference