Author Topic: New Draft Format, If it passes..  (Read 3911 times)

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New Draft Format, If it passes..
« on: July 30, 2014, 12:16:35 PM »

Offline PaulAllen

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The NBA is looking to change the lottery system to a wheel system where every team in a 30 year period will get the number 1 pick. This will get rid of any tanking, unless a team is looking to dump salary...Teams like the Celtics who own other teams picks now will have better odds in locking down top picks.. here is the article in more detail..

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24385704/report-nba-set-to-consider-wheel-concept-to-replace-draft-lottery

Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2014, 12:54:02 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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There's been a bit of talk about this, I remain unconvinced that this fix is unnecessary.

edit: they've also since ditched the idea of the wheel as its presented in this article.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2014, 01:00:33 PM by D.o.s. »
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2014, 01:06:33 PM »

Offline Mr October

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That is an old article. We're going back to 2013 here.

I dont like the wheel. I prefer slightly evened out lottery odds. It is important to keep hope for a fan base.

Otherwise if your team is bad and doesn't have a top 10 pick in the next 3 years, that fan base is gonna check out. Good luck selling season tickets. And even then they might just have 1 shot at a high pick and grab a Hasheem Thabeet or Michael Beasley with the number 2 pick. Now they have to wait another couple of years before cracking the top 8 or 10 again.

Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2014, 01:13:25 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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There's been a bit of talk about this, I remain unconvinced that this fix is unnecessary.

edit: they've also since ditched the idea of the wheel as its presented in this article.
DOS, who are "they" and what is the source?

personally, i would like to have the nba and owners discuss this in greater detail. it has some pretty compelling features, the removal of tanking being one of them.

i would imagine this would dramatically alter the trading of draft choices by teams as well.
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2014, 01:20:47 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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There's been a bit of talk about this, I remain unconvinced that this fix is unnecessary.

edit: they've also since ditched the idea of the wheel as its presented in this article.
DOS, who are "they" and what is the source?

personally, i would like to have the nba and owners discuss this in greater detail. it has some pretty compelling features, the removal of tanking being one of them.

i would imagine this would dramatically alter the trading of draft choices by teams as well.

"They" would be the league.

As for sources, I'm working, so bear with me and my suboptimal Google-Fu at the moment: I'm just using Lowe since he's been on top of this issue for the last 8 months or so.

March of 2014
http://grantland.com/features/wheel-of-misfortune/
Quote
The wheel may not end up looking much like a wheel at all; Zarren has reorganized it so that groups of randomly selected teams might hop through buckets of six picks — say, picks 1-6 in one season, and 25-30 the next season — over a five-year span, instead of the original 30-year system in which teams cycle through each specific pick one by one. Within each bucket, a mini lottery would determine which team gets which pick. The goal is to give bad teams hope of snagging a higher pick more quickly.

June of 2014
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-lottery-reform-is-coming/
Quote
The NBA submitted an official proposal to reform the lottery this week at competition committee meetings in Las Vegas, pushing aside the Wheel idea in favor of a revised weighting system that shifts each team’s odds of getting the top pick, per several sources who have seen and reviewed the league’s proposal.

Quote
The league’s proposal gives at least the four worst teams the same chance at winning the no. 1 pick: approximately an identical 11 percent shot for each club. The odds decline slowly from there, with the team in the next spot holding a 10 percent chance. The lottery team with the best record will have a 2 percent chance of leaping to the no. 1 pick, up from the the minuscule 0.5 percent chance it has under the current system.
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #5 on: July 30, 2014, 01:23:34 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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From that second article

Quote
Two early concerns about the league’s proposal have already emerged:

1. The timing of implementation. Teams that have constructed short-term building plans under the current rules will likely oppose any attempt to change those rules midstream. The Wheel proposal, submitted to the league by Mike Zarren, the Celtics’ assistant general manager, called for instituting the Wheel only after all draft picks that have already been traded actually move between the trading partners. Due to the protections on some future first-round picks that have been traded, implementation would have waited at least a half-dozen years.

2. There are already burbling concerns that a restructured odds system will encourage some late-season tanking among teams all over the lottery. Teams clustered around the middle of the lottery may begin jockeying for a top-five position, or to move up from, say, no. 12 to no. 9.

Which dovetails nicely into the 76ers thread we have going on at the same time.
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #6 on: July 30, 2014, 01:38:15 PM »

Offline No Nickname

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I think they should have all non-playoff teams have an equal chance at the first five picks.  All 14 teams names go in a bowl and you draw out five.

That way there's no extreme tanking.  I mean I guess if you want to try your best to get the #6 pick if you're the worst team in the league and don't get one of the top five picks you could tank.

But the difference between #6 and #12 most years is non-existant.  It's based on how good you are as a talent evaluator. Those picks are basically a crapshoot (6-12). 

Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #7 on: July 30, 2014, 01:47:36 PM »

Offline freshinthehouse

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There's been a bit of talk about this, I remain unconvinced that this fix is unnecessary.

Agreed.

Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2014, 02:03:09 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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The NBA is looking to change the lottery system to a wheel system where every team in a 30 year period will get the number 1 pick. This will get rid of any tanking, unless a team is looking to dump salary...Teams like the Celtics who own other teams picks now will have better odds in locking down top picks.. here is the article in more detail..

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/24385704/report-nba-set-to-consider-wheel-concept-to-replace-draft-lottery
Article from 2013 about a poor idea that will likely never see the light of day. Move along.
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #9 on: July 30, 2014, 02:07:41 PM »

Offline Eja117

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If I understood that correctly (and maybe I don't) where you draft would have nothing to do with how you did. Right?

Not sure I like that at all.

Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2014, 02:25:13 PM »

Offline D.o.s.

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If I understood that correctly (and maybe I don't) where you draft would have nothing to do with how you did. Right?

Not sure I like that at all.

You understood it correctly, and you've hit on one of the big reasons why its been scrapped -- at least, in that incarnation.
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2014, 02:36:34 PM »

Offline Granath

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I think they should have all non-playoff teams have an equal chance at the first five picks.  All 14 teams names go in a bowl and you draw out five.

That way there's no extreme tanking.  I mean I guess if you want to try your best to get the #6 pick if you're the worst team in the league and don't get one of the top five picks you could tank.

But the difference between #6 and #12 most years is non-existant.  It's based on how good you are as a talent evaluator. Those picks are basically a crapshoot (6-12).

Then teams who might get the #8 playoff spot may tank. If you're a .500 team and you have the option of landing Lebron James in the draft by missing the playoffs or getting swept by a strong #1 seed, Lebron starts looking mighty attractive. There's essentially no system beyond an entirely random one (the wheel would be one, though I think it's a bad idea) that doesn't support at least some level of tanking.

A major problem with something like the wheel is that all drafts are not created equally. Get one  like the one in 2011 or 2010 and the team that gets #1 that year is really in a bind. And truly random system could doom a team to mediocrity or worse for decades. And again, the Wheel is already off the table. It's really a pretty poor idea in a league that is so top-heavy with talent. Unlike the NFL or MLB, in the NBA guys outside the top 10 rarely become true team-carrying superstars. While everyone can rattle off a few, it just doesn't happen enough to make it anything more than almost a completely random chance.

Re-weighting the odds - something that's being considered right now - is probably the best solution. It minimizes (but does not eliminate) tanking at the very least while still giving bad teams the best opportunity to improve themselves through the draft.
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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #12 on: July 30, 2014, 02:42:55 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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Just relegate the worst team in the D-League already, and promote the D-League champion. That's the way to avoid tanking.  ;D

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Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #13 on: July 30, 2014, 03:08:02 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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The fairest, but way too complicated, method would be to develop some kind of formula that takes into account several factors into determining what a team's odds should be:

* How bad were they this year?
* How bad were they in previous years? (E.g. if they were like the David Robinson Spurs and had one bad year as an aberration, their odds would not be as good as a team who's lost year after year).
* How much lotto luck have they recently had? (e.g. to prevent Cleveland from winning 3 out of 4)
* Strength of schedule. (e.g same record in West is a much better team than same record in East).


Again, this will NEVER happen, because it's too complicated and subjective, but something like that would be pretty cool. 

Re: New Draft Format, If it passes..
« Reply #14 on: July 30, 2014, 03:12:36 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

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this is probably the weakest suggestion I've seen so far.

a team winning a championship will eventually be getting a #1 pick, setting bad teams that could probably use it back even further. let's just imagine for a sec. that this system was in place and the Lakers had a chance to get Lebron at that time? we may as well cross watching basketball off our list of things to do.

this is a poor solution.