What are the Wizards' chances of running .... "Treadmill of Mediocrity"

[the_Bird]

The Wizards have been crap for so long, I don't blame them for taking a chance at being able to run out a contender for a couple of seasons even if some of their decisions are ultimately ones they regret.  In the five years before last season, they'd won less than 30% of their games.  Your fans are only going to have so much patience; even in the C's 20-year drought, they only had two seasons where they were anywhere close to that bad.

So, you've got a team that can finally win a couple games, and you've got an Eastern Conference that's a complete mess.  Miami will be lucky to win half their games without LeBron.  Indiana fell apart at the seasons; who knows what this season will look like?  Brooklyn's likely going to get worse, and they weren't that good last year.  Cleveland will probably be the favorite to win the conference just because of LeBron, but you never how the rest of the team will all fit together.

So, after a half-decade of atrocious play, and only getting past the first round once since 1982...  they've got a decent team and they want to make so noise?  Take their chances and see if they can make the ECF?  I've got no problem with that. 

Sometimes you've got to play the cards you're dealt.  Short stack can't wait for pocket aces.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Wizards = chances of treadmill to mediocrity = 85%

Paying Gortat big money was a mistake. Going after a 36 year old Pierce was a mistake. Wall already on big money. Beal due a big extension in near future. Odds are they are going to pay Nene new contract which will put them over the top and doom them to a treadmill status.

Lack of a long term plan in Washington.

 I actually like moves the Wizards have made.  They are really banking on the maturation and improvement by 20 year old Beal and 23 year old Wall.  Otto Porter might also come around. Surrounding these young guys with veterans will not only help them win now, but help them learn the game and develop as well.

Agreed -- they've essentially gone the Portland route by proving to Wall and Beal that they're not afraid, or too inept, to put a playoff team around them (remember when LaMarcus was sitting with one foot out the door?). Teams are terrified of being Kevin Love'd by their precocious superstars.

Washington are just postponing that from happening. Not stopping it.

Like Denver with Melo or Orlando with Dwight. Setting their teams up to be very good but not quite good enough + facing a rebuilding process right when young stars hit their peak years.

Sure, but the CBA is designed to keep a team's best player in place, by virtue of the sheer amount of money that the home team can offer vs. outside contracts. It takes a special set of screwed up circumstances (see: Dwight + Los Angeles or Love + Minny) to make a star player ditch their alma mater, as it were.

Who knows what that situation will look like post-2017, but as of now, the Wizards would most likely have to completely implode for them to lose Wall + Beal.

Chris Paul and New Orleans is another one.

These are not special circumstances. These are regular situations that will continue to happen over and over again.

A team is either competing for Championships when star is in his prime or a team is not and is in danger of losing star player. Just like Orlando with Dwight, Denver with Melo and New Orleans with CP3.

Nene is 31 years old.
Gortat is 30 years old, locked up long term and I do not think he'll age well.
Pierce is 36 years old.

When Beal and Wall are in their prime, 3-5 years from now, where is the help coming from?

Washington trying to run before it's their time to run and they are setting themselves up to have major problems down the line.

I think you're paying too much attention to their current roster and the spending on their current roster than actually looking at how their financials are setup going forward (particularly with how the cap keeps getting estimated for big increases year to year).

For example, 3 years from now, which is what you're worried about, the ONLY players under contract are John Wall and Marcin Gortat (whom I actually like, so not as concerned as you on that regard).

So if you can win some good will by contending in the next two years, right before Beal is due for his restricted free-agency, I don't envision the big downside you're speculating 3-5 years from now... the financial flexibility will be there.

[Celtics4ever]

I think they got a nice up and coming team.  I view mediocrity more like ATL.

[Jailan34]

I really cant disagree more with the OP. The Wizards are a great example of building through the draft and then adding in some good complementary pieces. Wall and Beal is a great backcourt already and they're both still very young. I think they have the perfect mix of veteran and young players. It's up to the players now to win, Washington's management and front office have done their job.

[MISSERY]

I really cant disagree more with the OP. The Wizards are a great example of building through the draft and then adding in some good complementary pieces. Wall and Beal is a great backcourt already and they're both still very young. I think they have the perfect mix of veteran and young players. It's up to the players now to win, Washington's management and front office have done their job.

yes, and wizards don't need harrington because they already got a veteran big if gooden, i think they will leave a 1roster spot for trade but who?
i was intrigue by seraphin 3million but then he won't see any minutes, and he can't be traded until december

i wanted them to add a shawn marion to help an aging paul pierce, have webster as your 3rd man at SF porter will just be options at SG/SF

[Mr October]

Wizards = chances of treadmill to mediocrity = 85%

Paying Gortat big money was a mistake. Going after a 36 year old Pierce was a mistake. Wall already on big money. Beal due a big extension in near future. Odds are they are going to pay Nene new contract which will put them over the top and doom them to a treadmill status.

Lack of a long term plan in Washington.

Yes, the Wizards are most likely heading towards mediocrity, but potentially 50 wins per year mediocrity, just below contender level.

In order to reach contender level, you need at least 1 top 10 player or tremendous depth and talent at all 5 positions. The wizards may never reach either of those categories. Talent like that is hard to acquire.

I thought their moves this off season were fine. Gortat received a market value contract. If they let him go, they could have fallen into true mediocrity, winning 35-45 games every season.

It is easy to criticize from the outside. But the more i pay attention to player movement the more i realize just how hard it is to build a contender, especially with real money and real fanbases on the line. What should the Wizards have done instead?

[incoherent]

Mediocrity for the Wizards, their fan base and by all accounts, their front office, appears to be not getting out of the 1st round.

Wizards chance of escaping mediocrity is equal to their chances of getting out of the 1st round.

Last year they were knocked out by the Bulls in the 1st round.

Washington on paper is a better team this year.

Vegas has them ranked 9th in chances to win a championship, with 3 other teams from the East in front of them.

That to me would imply their chances of getting into the 2nd round are pretty good.

I would say then, that the 15% chance of escaping mediocrity that the OP implies is actually a lot higher.  Closer to 50-60%

[TheTruthFot18]

Wizards = chances of treadmill to mediocrity = 85%

Paying Gortat big money was a mistake. Going after a 36 year old Pierce was a mistake. Wall already on big money. Beal due a big extension in near future. Odds are they are going to pay Nene new contract which will put them over the top and doom them to a treadmill status.

Lack of a long term plan in Washington.

Gortat was a stretch but not really different than Bradley considering they are actually competing. Pierce is a deal for them. Not much money and he bring's just as much if not more than what Ariza did, less some defense. If they re-sign Nene then I'll say they're in trouble but until then I think they did a darn good job from the Gilbert Arenas days before 2010.

[RJ87]

Wizards = chances of treadmill to mediocrity = 85%

Paying Gortat big money was a mistake. Going after a 36 year old Pierce was a mistake. Wall already on big money. Beal due a big extension in near future. Odds are they are going to pay Nene new contract which will put them over the top and doom them to a treadmill status.

Lack of a long term plan in Washington.

Yes, the Wizards are most likely heading towards mediocrity, but potentially 50 wins per year mediocrity, just below contender level.

In order to reach contender level, you need at least 1 top 10 player or tremendous depth and talent at all 5 positions. The wizards may never reach either of those categories. Talent like that is hard to acquire.

I thought their moves this off season were fine. Gortat received a market value contract. If they let him go, they could have fallen into true mediocrity, winning 35-45 games every season.

It is easy to criticize from the outside. But the more i pay attention to player movement the more i realize just how hard it is to build a contender, especially with real money and real fanbases on the line. What should the Wizards have done instead?

Agreed. You have to be good before you can be great, and I think they'll be very, very good next year. Wall and Gortat are the only long-term contracts they have. Even when they extend Beal, the expected jump in salary cap will still allow them financial flexibility.

[Moranis]

Mediocrity for the Wizards, their fan base and by all accounts, their front office, appears to be not getting out of the 1st round.

Wizards chance of escaping mediocrity is equal to their chances of getting out of the 1st round.

Last year they were knocked out by the Bulls in the 1st round.

Washington on paper is a better team this year.

Vegas has them ranked 9th in chances to win a championship, with 3 other teams from the East in front of them.

That to me would imply their chances of getting into the 2nd round are pretty good.

I would say then, that the 15% chance of escaping mediocrity that the OP implies is actually a lot higher.  Closer to 50-60%

Um Washington beat Chicago in 5 games before losing in the 2nd round to Indiana in 6 games.

[the_Bird]

Well, no.  You don't HAVE to be good before you can be great; how can a Celtics fan possibly forget the transition from '06-'07 to '07-'08? 

But, I'm sick of this "make the team look like one of the four best in the league, or give up and tank!" mentality.  And with Washington - whose franchise history in the past two decades is about as p----poor as anybody's - if you've got a legit shot to get the 2nd round, and maybe to the ECF, you take that shot.  What if LeBron blows out his knee in the preseason?  Then the East is completely wide-open. 

I mean, really, what is the alternative?

[Who]

I think they should shop Bradley Beal when next big star is on trade block.

I have a hard time seeing them put together a Championship caliber team with Beal on the team given contracts already handed out to Wall and Gortat. Maybe they could do a deal like LAC did with Eric Gordon for CP3 based around Bradley Beal. It could be worth making a run at K-Love if Wolves still having trouble with Cavs over trade.

[Donoghus]

Possibly but way too early to tell. 

This team made it to the 2nd round last season after not making the playoffs the year before.  To me, its still on an upward trajectory until proven otherwise.

"Lebron back to CLE" Year One, the East is seemingly wide open.  I have no issue with a team who was a conference semi-finalist last year making a run at the conference title this year.  Especially with how the East currently stacks up.  They've built out their roster and brought in guys like Pierce & Humphries on relatively short term deals & short money.  Heck, you gotta build out your roster anyways and they've done a good job of that this offseason, IMO.

Now, if they bow out in the conference semis again this year, then maybe  you can start taking treadmill of mediocrity but that might even still be too early.  If they resign Nene for big money following '15-16, then I can see the treadmill working at hand. 
They're not killing themselves going forward.  Looking at their salary cap situation a few years into the future, there isn't a lot of dead money here and they have their 2nd best player (Beal) under cost control for another couple of seasons.  The one big decision they have looming is what to do with Nene.  However, if they let him walk, that's going to free up a good chunk of money in a year when the cap is expected to bounce up significantly due to the new TV deal.   The Gortat deal alone shouldn't kill them.

[Who]

Wizards = chances of treadmill to mediocrity = 85%

Paying Gortat big money was a mistake. Going after a 36 year old Pierce was a mistake. Wall already on big money. Beal due a big extension in near future. Odds are they are going to pay Nene new contract which will put them over the top and doom them to a treadmill status.

Lack of a long term plan in Washington.

 I actually like moves the Wizards have made.  They are really banking on the maturation and improvement by 20 year old Beal and 23 year old Wall.  Otto Porter might also come around. Surrounding these young guys with veterans will not only help them win now, but help them learn the game and develop as well.

Agreed -- they've essentially gone the Portland route by proving to Wall and Beal that they're not afraid, or too inept, to put a playoff team around them (remember when LaMarcus was sitting with one foot out the door?). Teams are terrified of being Kevin Love'd by their precocious superstars.

Washington are just postponing that from happening. Not stopping it.

Like Denver with Melo or Orlando with Dwight. Setting their teams up to be very good but not quite good enough + facing a rebuilding process right when young stars hit their peak years.

Sure, but the CBA is designed to keep a team's best player in place, by virtue of the sheer amount of money that the home team can offer vs. outside contracts. It takes a special set of screwed up circumstances (see: Dwight + Los Angeles or Love + Minny) to make a star player ditch their alma mater, as it were.

Who knows what that situation will look like post-2017, but as of now, the Wizards would most likely have to completely implode for them to lose Wall + Beal.

Chris Paul and New Orleans is another one.

These are not special circumstances. These are regular situations that will continue to happen over and over again.

A team is either competing for Championships when star is in his prime or a team is not and is in danger of losing star player. Just like Orlando with Dwight, Denver with Melo and New Orleans with CP3.

Nene is 31 years old.
Gortat is 30 years old, locked up long term and I do not think he'll age well.
Pierce is 36 years old.

When Beal and Wall are in their prime, 3-5 years from now, where is the help coming from?

Washington trying to run before it's their time to run and they are setting themselves up to have major problems down the line.

I think you're paying too much attention to their current roster and the spending on their current roster than actually looking at how their financials are setup going forward (particularly with how the cap keeps getting estimated for big increases year to year).

For example, 3 years from now, which is what you're worried about, the ONLY players under contract are John Wall and Marcin Gortat (whom I actually like, so not as concerned as you on that regard).

So if you can win some good will by contending in the next two years, right before Beal is due for his restricted free-agency, I don't envision the big downside you're speculating 3-5 years from now... the financial flexibility will be there.

Yeah, the increasing cap could save them.

[LooseCannon]

The most important thing for Washington is that they own all of their future picks, except for the protected second-round pick they gave to Boston in the Humphries deal.  There are always players capable of being contributors on a contender who are available with non-lottery picks.  Combining that with Wall/Beal being young players with theoretical room for improvement and you have a team which has a reasonable chance of getting better instead of plateauing at their current level.  The problem comes when you spend all of those picks to build a roster that has mostly maxed out its potential.

If Washington ends up being a consistent playoff team that consistently fails to make it to the conference finals, it will probably be because Wall and Beal are part of an insufficiently talented core that is good enough to beat up on bad teams but not good enough to consistently beat good teams.