Wizards = chances of treadmill to mediocrity = 85%
Paying Gortat big money was a mistake. Going after a 36 year old Pierce was a mistake. Wall already on big money. Beal due a big extension in near future. Odds are they are going to pay Nene new contract which will put them over the top and doom them to a treadmill status.
Lack of a long term plan in Washington.
I actually like moves the Wizards have made. They are really banking on the maturation and improvement by 20 year old Beal and 23 year old Wall. Otto Porter might also come around. Surrounding these young guys with veterans will not only help them win now, but help them learn the game and develop as well.
Agreed -- they've essentially gone the Portland route by proving to Wall and Beal that they're not afraid, or too inept, to put a playoff team around them (remember when LaMarcus was sitting with one foot out the door?). Teams are terrified of being Kevin Love'd by their precocious superstars.
Washington are just postponing that from happening. Not stopping it.
Like Denver with Melo or Orlando with Dwight. Setting their teams up to be very good but not quite good enough + facing a rebuilding process right when young stars hit their peak years.
Sure, but the CBA is designed to keep a team's best player in place, by virtue of the sheer amount of money that the home team can offer vs. outside contracts. It takes a special set of screwed up circumstances (see: Dwight + Los Angeles or Love + Minny) to make a star player ditch their alma mater, as it were.
Who knows what that situation will look like post-2017, but as of now, the Wizards would most likely have to completely implode for them to lose Wall + Beal.
Chris Paul and New Orleans is another one.
These are not special circumstances. These are regular situations that will continue to happen over and over again.
A team is either competing for Championships when star is in his prime or a team is not and is in danger of losing star player. Just like Orlando with Dwight, Denver with Melo and New Orleans with CP3.
Nene is 31 years old.
Gortat is 30 years old, locked up long term and I do not think he'll age well.
Pierce is 36 years old.
When Beal and Wall are in their prime, 3-5 years from now, where is the help coming from?
Washington trying to run before it's their time to run and they are setting themselves up to have major problems down the line.