EAST:
Top tier (in some order)
Cavs, Bulls, Wizards, Pacers, Raptors
-LeBron alone guarantees 50 wins, but I don't think the supporting cast is there to guarantee 60. Because of that I see a 59 or 58 win team winning the East regular season, and really I think it could be any one of those teams. They're all in a position where "we need nothing major to go wrong" rather than "we need something major to go right that probably won't"
Second Tier:
Heat, Hawks, Hornets, Knicks
-All of these guys need something to go right that hasn't previously. Wade or Bosh needs to reclaim their inner durable alpha dog, Horford needs a whole season, Stephenson needs to gel with a maturing Hornets squad, Knicks need to gel in general. All of them have the talent, but too many things need to go right to be 1st tier teams
Third tier:
Nets, Pistons, Celtics
-I could see the Celtics challenging for a playoff spot if Rondo comes correct, I could see the pistons galvanized under SVG, I could see the Nets rediscovering their inner likability with the departure of Kidd's primadonna act and the more steady hand of Hollins, along with a Brook Lopez resurgence. Ultimately, I doubt any of those things happen though.
Fourth Tier:
Magic, Sixers, Bucks
-The East really is wide open, because get a few drinks in me and I could easily see a scenario of good luck/sudden maturity coupled with bad play from some of the above teams where the magic or bucks sneak into the playoffs, but until we see it, this is the basement.
WEST:
Top Tier: Spurs, Thunder
-I don't think any other team has a "we'll probably make the conference Finals" more than the Spurs or Thunder. The Spurs, because their business model is just so flawless and the talent fits together so perfectly, the Thunder because The Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka trifecta is now unequivocally the best Big Three in the league.
Second Tier: Blazers, Warriors, Clippers, Grizzlies, Rockets
-Nobody made any big splashes in free agency, nobody really got significantly worse. None of them are outright contenders and would need perfect matchups to get to the conference finals.
Third Tier: Suns, Mavs, Nuggets, Pelicans
-Surefire playoff teams in the East, they all made improvements (or will if Gallinari comes back in top form) from last year, they all have the talent to make the playoffs and steal a series, but the West is a murderers row in spots 3-11. Anything goes, but these guys are the fringe of the fringe
Fourth Tier:
Lakers, Wolves, Kings
-All teams that will make the best attempt they can at winning, but probably lack the cohesive talent necessary to get it done.
Fifth Tier:
Jazz
-Likely still rebuilding. Sorry, Utah.