Author Topic: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks  (Read 9005 times)

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Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #30 on: July 24, 2014, 07:27:12 AM »

Offline opengari12

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Def Barnes.  He would be solid and a potential all star with rondo.  He plays best with a pass first pg like marshall at Carolina.  include green in this trade or later for more assets.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #31 on: July 24, 2014, 11:08:53 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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I would take Barnes, Anthony Bennett or Dieng for the cost of taking on Barea (sending out an non guaranteed deals). However even with our non guaranteed deals we don't have the space to take Kevin Martin off their hands for them, unless we send back Thornton or Bass. Not sure if I want to compromise future cap space for any of those 3 guys though (granted K-Mart would probably be our best scorer immediately)

Edit- Kevin Martin's deal isn't as bad as I thought I would probably take on his contract for a chance at one of the three guys listed above.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2014, 11:14:33 AM by Evantime34 »
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Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #32 on: July 24, 2014, 02:51:07 PM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

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As of now no current Celtic other than Rondo has much cache with other teams like Al Jefferson did in 2007.

The plan moving forward should be to let the season play out and showcase some of our young talent (Sully, Olynyk, Smart, and perhaps even Jeff Green even though he's not "young").

If one of those guys pops with a stellar first half of the season they could be the trade bait, along with several of our picks to get another All Star calibre player.

Let's say Sully averages 18 and 10, or Olynyk gets 17, 6, and 6, or Jeff Green goes for 21, 7, 4.  A contender with an Adrian Dantley situation (great player who just had to get away from Isaiah Thomas) might be willing to deal.

Imagine getting say Chris Paul who just refuses to continue playing for a Donald Sterling Clippers team. Or Cousins from Sacramento. Or maybe Harden has a meltdown due to Dwight Howard and insists on being traded. 

for the life of me, I don't understand the thinking behind some of these trade ideas.

why do we want to trade a very young player averaging a double-double for an older "superstar" who is either in the latter years of their prime and obviously doesn't want to be in Boston or is a complete headcase and too self-centered to ever lead a team to a title.

yeah, I remember that Kevin Garnett had some doubts about coming to Boston and was entering the last couple of years of his prime, but he also had tremendous basketball integrity, so to speak, but his "Big 3" era was undermined by his 2009 injury and Danny's idiotic decisions. as a result, that group only won one title when they should have won at least two.

let's keep our young talent and build on them with future draft picks. if we trade anyone, it needs to be Jeff Green. he is plenty talented and should provide a good return. he is a great guy, but too undependable, especially in a tough playoff series.
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Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #33 on: July 24, 2014, 05:56:23 PM »

Offline LB3533

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let's keep our young talent and build on them with future draft picks. if we trade anyone, it needs to be Jeff Green. he is plenty talented and should provide a good return. he is a great guy, but too undependable, especially in a tough playoff series.

Crap, now I have to spew my Jeff Green "apologist" schpeel/spiel.

Rondo & Green are our team's most talented players. They each should net us a good return.

For Jeff Green, past historical Celtic Playoff statistical data suggests Jeff Green to be highly DEPENDABLE when called upon to fullfill a specific role.

Let's take a look at his 1st ever playoff series for the Celtics, against the NYK in 2010-2011 season.

Jeff was off the bench for these 4 playoff 1st Round games. He AVG - 16.8 MPG, 6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0 APG all on 33.33% FG shooting (9 -27). Pretty lackluster performance for the new Celtic in his 1st playoff series for the C's.

Jeff averaged less MPG [16.8] than J'O'Neal (22.9 MPG - Starter) & Jeff averaged less MPG than Glen BBaby Davis (24.8 MPG - Reserve). This series, was not a series for Doc and his staff to "showcase" Jeff Green's talents. Doc & the staff played to his team's strengths with the MO of winning the series.

Jeff's playoff performance did not matter much since the C's swept the Knicks 4-0 with an average margin of victory of +8.5 (99.3 PPG C's to 90.8 PPG NYK)

Why did the C's sweep the Knicks? Because of Celts stars.

The combined production of the "Big 4" (PP, RA, KG, RR) - AVG - 19.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.1 APG.

So essentially these 4 stars averaged a superb 20/7/5 for the 4 games, each of them.

They accomplished this production on a ridiculously effcient 49.6 FG% shooting (120/242), 56.3 PT3FG% (27/48), 77.4 FT% (48 / 62).

Rondo took the 2nd most FGAs on the C's on a robust 50% FG shooting (better than KG's 45.5% (25/55).He was also the worst FT shooter at a 54% FT clip (14/26).

But RR FT shooting doesn't stink as bad when the other 3 of the "Big 4", each shoot 90% or better from the FT line. (34/36) 94%

The 3PT shooting was from PP (50% - 10/20) & RA (65% - 17/26).

Despite Ray's hot shooting & despite Ray + PP intense scoring (each 22 ppg), despite all that, Rajon Rondo was the STAR of the series. RR - 19 PPG, 12 APG, 7.3 RPG (2nd best rebounder behind KG's 11.3 rpg).

Your stars are largely the reasons why you win games. If you are relying on your young guys to be your stars & depending on them to win you ball games, you're in for a long season.

Fast forward to the next round, against the Heat.

This is the series where Rondo was mugged by Wade in Game 3. We won that game regardless of the injury. But we lost the series 1-4.

So how did Jeff Green fair in this series against the Heat, a much more difficult opponent than the NYK?

Jeff's line wasn't astounding. It was, however, better than his 1st Round series. 8.4 PPG on 54% FG shooting, 60% 3PT shooting, 73% FT shooting. Jeff's MPG was increased to 21.1 MPG from 1st Round's 16.8MPG and the increased is rightfully justified based on the statistical data.

Could the higher caliber opponent Miami Heat & their two premier wing stars, warrant more playing time for Jeff Green? Most likely yes.

Could Rondo's injury forced Doc to continue to ride Jeff in the series? I could also see that too.

But I largely see that it was Jeff's increased efficient performance that justified Jeff's increased playing time. I think Jeff stepped up his game in this 2nd round, against a more difficult opponent.

What about Jeff's next time in the playoffs? Oh this would be 2 years later, since he mised 1 year, recovering from heart surgery.

What did Jeff Green do in his 2nd playoff stint with the Celtics?

This would be the 1st Round of 2012-2013 playoffs, against, you guessed it, the New York Knicker boxers. (Remember we had swept them the playoffs before in '11 playoffs)

But that sweep was largely in part because of the Big 4.

THIS time, there was no Big 4. THIS time, there wasn't even a Rajon Rondo, who didn't play a lick of playoff ball in the '13 playoff season. (Rondo's torn ACL, knee surgery, done for the year so no Playoffs).

What did Jeff do, this go around against the NYK?

This time, with no Big 4, no starting PG Rajon Rondo AND Jeff was back from his own heart surgery playing in his 1st playoff series, how did Jeff do?

Jeff stepped up AGAIN. On 43 MPG & 14 FGA/G - 3.7 3PTA - 7.5 FTA/G , Jeff AVG - 20/5/2 on FG% 43.5, 3PT% 45.5, FT% 84.4

Jeff performed this way, with odds stacked against him and his team. No Rondo, 1st Playoffs since his heart surgery.

Why did we lose?

Biggest reason was, no Rondo. We lost the turnover battle (-4/g) 16/g - C's & 12/g - Knicks. We lost the rebounding game (-3/g) 42/g NYK - 39/g C's. We lost the SPG (-5/g) - NYK: 10.3 SPG, C's: 5.5 SPG.

So we were weakened in game areas involving turnovers, rebounding, & steals. All 3 things, Rajon Rondo could have helped us with...no question.

Is it fair to ask Jeff Green to be Rajon Rondo? No way Jose.

Is it fair to ask Jeff Green to step his game up compared to his first playoff experience as a Celtic? Yes it is fair. Did Jeff step up? Yes he did.

Can we depend on Jeff in pressure a playoff series? Based on the historical statistical data. The answer is "Yes".

The assessment that Jeff Green is "too undependable, especially in a tough playoff series", this assessment does not hold water, any water, none.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2014, 06:50:03 PM »

Offline kraidstar

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let's keep our young talent and build on them with future draft picks. if we trade anyone, it needs to be Jeff Green. he is plenty talented and should provide a good return. he is a great guy, but too undependable, especially in a tough playoff series.

Crap, now I have to spew my Jeff Green "apologist" schpeel/spiel.

Rondo & Green are our team's most talented players. They each should net us a good return.

For Jeff Green, past historical Celtic Playoff statistical data suggests Jeff Green to be highly DEPENDABLE when called upon to fullfill a specific role.

Let's take a look at his 1st ever playoff series for the Celtics, against the NYK in 2010-2011 season.

Jeff was off the bench for these 4 playoff 1st Round games. He AVG - 16.8 MPG, 6 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 0 APG all on 33.33% FG shooting (9 -27). Pretty lackluster performance for the new Celtic in his 1st playoff series for the C's.

Jeff averaged less MPG [16.8] than J'O'Neal (22.9 MPG - Starter) & Jeff averaged less MPG than Glen BBaby Davis (24.8 MPG - Reserve). This series, was not a series for Doc and his staff to "showcase" Jeff Green's talents. Doc & the staff played to his team's strengths with the MO of winning the series.

Jeff's playoff performance did not matter much since the C's swept the Knicks 4-0 with an average margin of victory of +8.5 (99.3 PPG C's to 90.8 PPG NYK)

Why did the C's sweep the Knicks? Because of Celts stars.

The combined production of the "Big 4" (PP, RA, KG, RR) - AVG - 19.7 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.1 APG.

So essentially these 4 stars averaged a superb 20/7/5 for the 4 games, each of them.

They accomplished this production on a ridiculously effcient 49.6 FG% shooting (120/242), 56.3 PT3FG% (27/48), 77.4 FT% (48 / 62).

Rondo took the 2nd most FGAs on the C's on a robust 50% FG shooting (better than KG's 45.5% (25/55).He was also the worst FT shooter at a 54% FT clip (14/26).

But RR FT shooting doesn't stink as bad when the other 3 of the "Big 4", each shoot 90% or better from the FT line. (34/36) 94%

The 3PT shooting was from PP (50% - 10/20) & RA (65% - 17/26).

Despite Ray's hot shooting & despite Ray + PP intense scoring (each 22 ppg), despite all that, Rajon Rondo was the STAR of the series. RR - 19 PPG, 12 APG, 7.3 RPG (2nd best rebounder behind KG's 11.3 rpg).

Your stars are largely the reasons why you win games. If you are relying on your young guys to be your stars & depending on them to win you ball games, you're in for a long season.

Fast forward to the next round, against the Heat.

This is the series where Rondo was mugged by Wade in Game 3. We won that game regardless of the injury. But we lost the series 1-4.

So how did Jeff Green fair in this series against the Heat, a much more difficult opponent than the NYK?

Jeff's line wasn't astounding. It was, however, better than his 1st Round series. 8.4 PPG on 54% FG shooting, 60% 3PT shooting, 73% FT shooting. Jeff's MPG was increased to 21.1 MPG from 1st Round's 16.8MPG and the increased is rightfully justified based on the statistical data.

Could the higher caliber opponent Miami Heat & their two premier wing stars, warrant more playing time for Jeff Green? Most likely yes.

Could Rondo's injury forced Doc to continue to ride Jeff in the series? I could also see that too.

But I largely see that it was Jeff's increased efficient performance that justified Jeff's increased playing time. I think Jeff stepped up his game in this 2nd round, against a more difficult opponent.

What about Jeff's next time in the playoffs? Oh this would be 2 years later, since he mised 1 year, recovering from heart surgery.

What did Jeff Green do in his 2nd playoff stint with the Celtics?

This would be the 1st Round of 2012-2013 playoffs, against, you guessed it, the New York Knicker boxers. (Remember we had swept them the playoffs before in '11 playoffs)

But that sweep was largely in part because of the Big 4.

THIS time, there was no Big 4. THIS time, there wasn't even a Rajon Rondo, who didn't play a lick of playoff ball in the '13 playoff season. (Rondo's torn ACL, knee surgery, done for the year so no Playoffs).

What did Jeff do, this go around against the NYK?

This time, with no Big 4, no starting PG Rajon Rondo AND Jeff was back from his own heart surgery playing in his 1st playoff series, how did Jeff do?

Jeff stepped up AGAIN. On 43 MPG & 14 FGA/G - 3.7 3PTA - 7.5 FTA/G , Jeff AVG - 20/5/2 on FG% 43.5, 3PT% 45.5, FT% 84.4

Jeff performed this way, with odds stacked against him and his team. No Rondo, 1st Playoffs since his heart surgery.

Why did we lose?

Biggest reason was, no Rondo. We lost the turnover battle (-4/g) 16/g - C's & 12/g - Knicks. We lost the rebounding game (-3/g) 42/g NYK - 39/g C's. We lost the SPG (-5/g) - NYK: 10.3 SPG, C's: 5.5 SPG.

So we were weakened in game areas involving turnovers, rebounding, & steals. All 3 things, Rajon Rondo could have helped us with...no question.

Is it fair to ask Jeff Green to be Rajon Rondo? No way Jose.

Is it fair to ask Jeff Green to step his game up compared to his first playoff experience as a Celtic? Yes it is fair. Did Jeff step up? Yes he did.

Can we depend on Jeff in pressure a playoff series? Based on the historical statistical data. The answer is "Yes".

The assessment that Jeff Green is "too undependable, especially in a tough playoff series", this assessment does not hold water, any water, none.

you hit the nail on the head. rondo and green, in summary, are guys who can win you playoff games. sometimes their efficiency is lacking in the regular season, but both can turn their game up a notch when it really matters, which is a valuable trait to have in this league.
IMO they're being undervalued now because they're playing on a young team loaded with role players and prospects. either guy could be a big piece on a contender.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #35 on: July 25, 2014, 05:29:29 AM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

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that's quite an impressive defense of Jeff Green,  kraidstar.

I would be interested to know what his game-to-game stats were though. I did state in my post that Green was talented - the problem being that he plays like Superman one game and then turns into Fred Roberts the next time out. he could still produce solid per game averages and be very erratic at the same time.

if you score 30 in game one and then 6 in game two, you end up with an impressive 18 per-game average, but your team is likely now tied at 1-1 in the series, heading to the lower seeds home court for the next two games.
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Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #36 on: July 25, 2014, 05:44:23 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Well, in his last playoffs he scored quite consistently and in bunches.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/g/greenje02/gamelog/2013/

18+ points for all but one game.

=====

Not a huge fan of Green at this point but I can see the case for him. I'm kind of ambivalent now, actually.

Only a handful of players can slow down or at least remotely bother the Melo's and the LeBron's of the league.

You have your Aminus and your Mbah a Moutes. Those guys cripple your offense. Sefalosha is an upgrade on offense but still terrible. Then you have Tony Allen.

Jeff Green is a credible offensive threat on top of being one of the few who can slow down the star SFs.

Only a handful can really do it on both ends like Jeff Green does. Off the top of my head: Paul George, Kawhii Leonard, Pierce, maybe Batum...

I wonder if Green might be willing to sacrifice a bit and embrace being an amazing role player. That way, everyone's happy.

Edit: Also, Iguodala is another guy who could probably slow LeBron and pose some threat on offense.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #37 on: July 25, 2014, 05:59:40 AM »

Offline saltlover

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that's quite an impressive defense of Jeff Green,  kraidstar.

I would be interested to know what his game-to-game stats were though. I did state in my post that Green was talented - the problem being that he plays like Superman one game and then turns into Fred Roberts the next time out. he could still produce solid per game averages and be very erratic at the same time.

if you score 30 in game one and then 6 in game two, you end up with an impressive 18 per-game average, but your team is likely now tied at 1-1 in the series, heading to the lower seeds home court for the next two games.

A couple of weeks ago, for simple curiosity, I calculated that Green's standard deviation for points scores per game was 7.5 last season.  Standard deviation is imperfect for a lot of reasons, but it's a quick-and-dirty number that more people can understand and excel has a formula for.  Anyway, that seemed very high given his per game average, but it'd be a pain to go get a bunch of other players game logs individually, so I didn't bother comparing it to anyone else.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2014, 06:21:34 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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that's quite an impressive defense of Jeff Green,  kraidstar.

I would be interested to know what his game-to-game stats were though. I did state in my post that Green was talented - the problem being that he plays like Superman one game and then turns into Fred Roberts the next time out. he could still produce solid per game averages and be very erratic at the same time.

if you score 30 in game one and then 6 in game two, you end up with an impressive 18 per-game average, but your team is likely now tied at 1-1 in the series, heading to the lower seeds home court for the next two games.

A couple of weeks ago, for simple curiosity, I calculated that Green's standard deviation for points scores per game was 7.5 last season.  Standard deviation is imperfect for a lot of reasons, but it's a quick-and-dirty number that more people can understand and excel has a formula for.  Anyway, that seemed very high given his per game average, but it'd be a pain to go get a bunch of other players game logs individually, so I didn't bother comparing it to anyone else.

You could export basketball reference's game logs as CSVs, then let Excel do the hard work.

Got 7.7 on excel for Green. 7.49 for Paul George.

Eight point something for LeBron.

Interesting.

Obviously not saying they're comparable since JG went 16 PPG, PG went 21 PPG and LeBron went 30 PPG.

But I think Paul George is also criticized for being inconsistent as well.

Another TP in an hour.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #39 on: July 25, 2014, 06:35:05 AM »

Offline saltlover

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that's quite an impressive defense of Jeff Green,  kraidstar.

I would be interested to know what his game-to-game stats were though. I did state in my post that Green was talented - the problem being that he plays like Superman one game and then turns into Fred Roberts the next time out. he could still produce solid per game averages and be very erratic at the same time.

if you score 30 in game one and then 6 in game two, you end up with an impressive 18 per-game average, but your team is likely now tied at 1-1 in the series, heading to the lower seeds home court for the next two games.

A couple of weeks ago, for simple curiosity, I calculated that Green's standard deviation for points scores per game was 7.5 last season.  Standard deviation is imperfect for a lot of reasons, but it's a quick-and-dirty number that more people can understand and excel has a formula for.  Anyway, that seemed very high given his per game average, but it'd be a pain to go get a bunch of other players game logs individually, so I didn't bother comparing it to anyone else.

You could export basketball reference's game logs as CSVs, then let Excel do the hard work.

Got 7.7 on excel for Green. 7.49 for Paul George.

Eight point something for LeBron.

Interesting.

Obviously not saying they're comparable since JG went 16 PPG, PG went 21 PPG and LeBron went 30 PPG.

But I think Paul George is also criticized for being inconsistent as well.

Another TP in an hour.

Yeah, I got JG's game log from basketball reference.  I didn't want to copy them all manually, however, to do a real comparison of players.  (7.7 sounds like what I got... Mentally I remembered 7.5, but I didn't write down the number.)  It was the percentage of his points on the standard deviation that I found noteworthy.  I really should take the time to compare him to the other starting 3s around the league... He may actually turn out to be as inconsistent as fans complained about.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #40 on: July 25, 2014, 09:40:35 AM »

Offline Cman

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that's quite an impressive defense of Jeff Green,  kraidstar.

I would be interested to know what his game-to-game stats were though. I did state in my post that Green was talented - the problem being that he plays like Superman one game and then turns into Fred Roberts the next time out. he could still produce solid per game averages and be very erratic at the same time.

if you score 30 in game one and then 6 in game two, you end up with an impressive 18 per-game average, but your team is likely now tied at 1-1 in the series, heading to the lower seeds home court for the next two games.

A couple of weeks ago, for simple curiosity, I calculated that Green's standard deviation for points scores per game was 7.5 last season.  Standard deviation is imperfect for a lot of reasons, but it's a quick-and-dirty number that more people can understand and excel has a formula for.  Anyway, that seemed very high given his per game average, but it'd be a pain to go get a bunch of other players game logs individually, so I didn't bother comparing it to anyone else.

You could export basketball reference's game logs as CSVs, then let Excel do the hard work.

Got 7.7 on excel for Green. 7.49 for Paul George.

Eight point something for LeBron.

Interesting.

Obviously not saying they're comparable since JG went 16 PPG, PG went 21 PPG and LeBron went 30 PPG.

But I think Paul George is also criticized for being inconsistent as well.

Another TP in an hour.

Yeah, I got JG's game log from basketball reference.  I didn't want to copy them all manually, however, to do a real comparison of players.  (7.7 sounds like what I got... Mentally I remembered 7.5, but I didn't write down the number.)  It was the percentage of his points on the standard deviation that I found noteworthy.  I really should take the time to compare him to the other starting 3s around the league... He may actually turn out to be as inconsistent as fans complained about.

Nice work to you both on this. It would be interesting to see a comparison across all the starting SFs in the league.
TPs to whoever puts it together!!!! (make sure to PM me if you do, bc I'm not going to be refreshing every half hour).
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #41 on: July 25, 2014, 10:36:09 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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that's quite an impressive defense of Jeff Green,  kraidstar.

I would be interested to know what his game-to-game stats were though. I did state in my post that Green was talented - the problem being that he plays like Superman one game and then turns into Fred Roberts the next time out. he could still produce solid per game averages and be very erratic at the same time.

if you score 30 in game one and then 6 in game two, you end up with an impressive 18 per-game average, but your team is likely now tied at 1-1 in the series, heading to the lower seeds home court for the next two games.

A couple of weeks ago, for simple curiosity, I calculated that Green's standard deviation for points scores per game was 7.5 last season.  Standard deviation is imperfect for a lot of reasons, but it's a quick-and-dirty number that more people can understand and excel has a formula for.  Anyway, that seemed very high given his per game average, but it'd be a pain to go get a bunch of other players game logs individually, so I didn't bother comparing it to anyone else.

You could export basketball reference's game logs as CSVs, then let Excel do the hard work.

Got 7.7 on excel for Green. 7.49 for Paul George.

Eight point something for LeBron.

Interesting.

Obviously not saying they're comparable since JG went 16 PPG, PG went 21 PPG and LeBron went 30 PPG.

But I think Paul George is also criticized for being inconsistent as well.

Another TP in an hour.

Yeah, I got JG's game log from basketball reference.  I didn't want to copy them all manually, however, to do a real comparison of players.  (7.7 sounds like what I got... Mentally I remembered 7.5, but I didn't write down the number.)  It was the percentage of his points on the standard deviation that I found noteworthy.  I really should take the time to compare him to the other starting 3s around the league... He may actually turn out to be as inconsistent as fans complained about.

Agreed.

People call Paul George inconsistent but his standard deviation is lower than Jeff Green, while scoring a higher amount of points.

I'd venture to guess JG's interquartile range probably tells the same story.

When Jeff Green goes quiet, he goes really quiet.

For the record, LeBron's is 8.38. Only around half a point more than the other two while scoring 30.

Hopefully I'll find time to do more.

Re: Report: Celtics 'moving on' from Kevin Love trade talks
« Reply #42 on: July 25, 2014, 11:04:37 AM »

Offline saltlover

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Agreed.

People call Paul George inconsistent but his standard deviation is lower than Jeff Green, while scoring a higher amount of points.

I'd venture to guess JG's interquartile range probably tells the same story.

When Jeff Green goes quiet, he goes really quiet.

For the record, LeBron's is 8.38. Only around half a point more than the other two while scoring 30.

Hopefully I'll find time to do more.

For work, I'm supposed to train myself on some statistical software when I have free time.  No free time today, but I think I know what data set I'll use, if you don't beat me to it.