Birdman Contract

[MBunge]

What is the end goal for the Heat? If Riley really is all about championships it is pretty impossible to see Wade, Bosh and Deng leading them to one. So what is the point of all these moves?

1.  Riley is old.  It's not unusual for authors who wrote 600-1000 pages books when they're young to write 200-300 page books when they are old.  At his age, Riley does not want to spend 3 to 5 years in a rebuilding plan.

2.  Riley is arrogant and wants to prove he can win without LeBron.

Mike

[kraidstar]

you guys realize birdman shot .644 last year? must have been a LOT of open dunks. as for his contract, the guy just turned 36, seems like a lot, but he did post an 18.56 PER last season in 19.4 MPG. his state were almost identical to his career stats (aside from that huge FG%). it's amazing that he's still as explosive as he is. must be that heat training regimen that had ray allen throwing down reverse dunks last year. 

[D.o.s.]

you guys realize birdman shot .644 last year? must have been a LOT of open dunks. as for his contract, the guy just turned 36, seems like a lot, but he did post an 18.56 PER last season in 19.4 MPG. his state were almost identical to his career stats. it's amazing that he's still as explosive as he is. must be that heat training regimen that had ray allen throwing down reverse dunks last year. 

This tells you more about PER than it does about Birdman's play.

[mgent]

you guys realize birdman shot .644 last year? must have been a LOT of open dunks. as for his contract, the guy just turned 36, seems like a lot, but he did post an 18.56 PER last season in 19.4 MPG. his state were almost identical to his career stats. it's amazing that he's still as explosive as he is. must be that heat training regimen that had ray allen throwing down reverse dunks last year. 

This tells you more about PER than it does about Birdman's play.

Yeah, PER tends to love guys who can only score garbage buckets.  Brandan Wright has a PER of 23.5!! (and that's not far off of his career average)

[D.o.s.]

I'm sure someone else remembers the screenshot of Rasheed finishing a game with the Knicks where he had like 118 PER.

[mgent]

I'm sure someone else remembers the screenshot of Rasheed finishing a game with the Knicks where he had like 118 PER.

To be fair, any stat can be off by 500% with a small sample size.

The amazing thing about PER is that it still considers Brandan Wright an elite top 10 player after 60 games.

[Fafnir]

I'm sure someone else remembers the screenshot of Rasheed finishing a game with the Knicks where he had like 118 PER.

To be fair, any stat can suck with a small sample size

The amazing thing about PER is that it still considers Brandan Wright an elite top 10 player after 60 games.

Shooting 70 TS% while scoring 17.5 points per game per 36 minutes is going to look very good in any minutes adjusted metric.

Box scores capture a lot but not everything.

[mgent]

I'm sure someone else remembers the screenshot of Rasheed finishing a game with the Knicks where he had like 118 PER.

To be fair, any stat can suck with a small sample size

The amazing thing about PER is that it still considers Brandan Wright an elite top 10 player after 60 games.

Shooting 70 TS% while scoring 17.5 points per game per 36 minutes is going to look very good in any minutes adjusted metric.

Box scores capture a lot but not everything.

Which is why I was under the impression that there were no all-encompassing metrics worth looking at (without extensive observations from actually watching the player).

And obviously that goes for the non-metrics too.  PPG, RPG, BPG, etc. don't capture much without eye tests.

[D.o.s.]

Wins Shares is pretty good, but you're right -- the numbers enhance what you see on the floor, they don't supersede it.

[Fafnir]

I'm sure someone else remembers the screenshot of Rasheed finishing a game with the Knicks where he had like 118 PER.

To be fair, any stat can suck with a small sample size

The amazing thing about PER is that it still considers Brandan Wright an elite top 10 player after 60 games.

Shooting 70 TS% while scoring 17.5 points per game per 36 minutes is going to look very good in any minutes adjusted metric.

Box scores capture a lot but not everything.

Which is why I was under the impression that there were no all-encompassing metrics worth looking at (without extensive observations from actually watching the player).

This is 100% not true.

There are plenty worth looking at, most of them are somewhat useful. They're just not worth looking at in isolation, just as you wouldn't watch a single game to evaluate a player.

[mgent]

I'm sure someone else remembers the screenshot of Rasheed finishing a game with the Knicks where he had like 118 PER.

To be fair, any stat can suck with a small sample size

The amazing thing about PER is that it still considers Brandan Wright an elite top 10 player after 60 games.

Shooting 70 TS% while scoring 17.5 points per game per 36 minutes is going to look very good in any minutes adjusted metric.

Box scores capture a lot but not everything.

Which is why I was under the impression that there were no all-encompassing metrics worth looking at (without extensive observations from actually watching the player).

This is 100% not true.

There are plenty worth looking at, most of them are somewhat useful. They're just not worth looking at in isolation, just as you wouldn't watch a single game to evaluate a player.

That's what I meant.  Should have clarified.

[mgent]

Wins Shares is pretty good, but you're right -- the numbers enhance what you see on the floor, they don't supersede it.

It's "better" in the sense that it doesn't completely ignore defense.

It also probably wouldn't put a middle of the league player in the top 10 like PER (which was my only point in dissing PER).

Though I would never look at the top 50 players in win shares and expect to see the top 50 players in the league in any sort of order.  Heck it looks like it can't even figure out who number 1 should be (by a lot).

[Jonny CC]

That is an awful contract for an old, limited freak.  Congrats Heat.