The issue is the Eastern Conference. If the Cavs played out West, I think they'd be hard-pressed to make it out of the first round, and certainly not out of the second round. However, they play in the East, where their biggest challengers will be the LeBron-less Heat and the Pacers, who were in a bit of disarray at the end of the season and may lose Lance.
So it's quite likely they could get out of the East. And keep in mind that whoever emerges from the West will have had a far tougher road to get there. So who the heck knows how things could play out?