Predict what we will end up getting for Rondo

[Celtics18]

Sure, the possibility exists that we could lose our star PG for nothing if we don't trade him and he decides to walk away in free agency.  The possibility also exists that we could re-sign him and add pieces around him to facilitate speeding up the rebuild process.

If we trade him away now for unproven prospects and or mediocre draft picks, we are almost assured of a lengthy rebuilding process.  If we hold on to him, we at least have a shot at accelerating the rebuilding process and being back in contention sooner rather than later.

If we lose him in free agency, then our rebuild looks to be rather lengthy, but that would have been the case even if he trade him away for pennies on the dollar.  To me, it looks like trying to hold on to him is clearly the gamble worth taking.

So, to recap:

Your strategy is built on the hope that, somehow, the rules of the business don't apply for Rondo and our Celtics, that he'd rather play for the (currently) struggling home team than play for a championship while still in his prime, correct? That's your prerogative, but excuse me if that's not enough for me to buy into. I think that straw hut you're building there is not enough to scare the big, bad wolf.

At least we both agree that it's a gamble, one you think is worth taking, and I think is too steep a price to pay if we lose.

You don't quite have that right.  The strategy I'm hoping for is that Danny and Brad can manage to build a team that looks promising enough and headed enough in the right direction that Rondo will want to stay.  Such a team, headed in the right direction, hopefully will be able to entice other good players to want to come play here.  Couple that with continuing to develop and acquire good, young assets, and I think we could have a formula for success. 

You have done nothing to convince me that the strategy you are laying out brings the team anywhere near title contention any time in the foreseeable future. 

Would you care to explain your risk-free plan for making the Celtics a contender again?

[hwangjini_1]

The debates over Rondo above are good and there are a number of points worth considering. One of them, for me, that directly impacts any sort of return the Celtics may get for Rondo is the level of demand by OTHER teams.

It makes absolutely no difference to other teams that either Danny or CBers see an all star pg. They will weigh his value by their need, the cost to get him, and his expected impact on their team.

Currently in the NBA, pg is NOT a position of scarcity, and though Rondo is better than most pg, other teams will also think "how much is that particular upgrade at pg worth to us? Will it propel us to the championship/playoff/etc. or not?"

Rondo may be be a "franchise" pg (a pg who can move the needle for certain teams and make a significant difference in w/l), but how many teams BOTH lack such a player, and, would be good enough already that Rondo could "move their needle" sufficiently to be worth the cost?

THOSE are the likely suitors for Rondo, not teams who are hopeless and rebuilding. For those teams, Rondo's appeal is far less.

So, stealing from SOSH and doing some homework, I tried to figure out the possible demand for Rondo, which we should keep in mind is only ONE factor, but an important one.

I do not believe there are a lot of teams who need a franchise pg right now. Let's take a look at a list of NBA teams and see whether they might feel as if they have their franchise pg:
 
Toronto: If they re-sign Lowry, yes, they believe they do have a franchise pg.
NY: No
Brooklyn: Technically yes, but it may play out as no.
Philly: Yes.
Indiana: No.
Milwaukee: No.
Detroit: Yes.
Cleveland: Yes.
Chicago: Yes
Washington: Yes
Miami: No.
Charlotte: Yes.
Atlanta: Yes.
Orlando: Yes.
Minnesota: Yes.
Portland: Yes.
Utah: No.
OKC: Yes.
Nuggets: Yes.
New Orleans: Yes.
San Antonio: Yes.
Houston: No.
Memphis: Yes.
Dallas: No.
Phoenix: Yes.
LAC: Yes
LAL: No.
Sacramento: No.
GS: Yes.
 
So, counting up the "no's" above (9, for those of you keeping score at home), realistically there appears to be only nine teams that probably believe that Rondo is someone they would want on their team.

Since the market is so small, the selection of partners is going to be equally as small. Then, from that reduced pool of teams Danny needs to find one or more teams who have players/picks worth acquiring, AND, that team would be willing to pay for Rondo. That is, a short list of teams who believe Rondo can push them into the playoffs/championship/ etc.

By now, that list is getting even shorter.

Still too long a list? Then let's pare it down once more and subtract those teams Rondo will resign with. If a team doesn't think Rondo will resign, they probably won't give up much for him. How many are left now? If I were Sacramento this would be a major concern....and may be a factor in the failed trade. But who knows? That may change in the Sac case.

For me, the list is down to around the Knicks, Lakers, Heat, Rockets, and Mavs...and the Heat are looking to add Lowry. Realistically, what would each of these teams be willing to offer to the Celtics? And remember, they would also consider trading for other pgs from other teams.

The final point is this, we may love Rondo, but the market for him is not vast. Why is that important to know? Because without a large demand the return Ainge can get for Rondo is not going to be what most CBers believe is "fair."

Indeed, given the arguments and debates, and rants, and hopes expressed here at at CB, I am not optimistic that the Celtics could get more than what we think is 70 cents on the dollar for Rondo.

[sadleprechaun]

For me, the list is down to around the Knicks, Lakers, Heat, Rockets, and Mavs.

Indeed, given the arguments and debates, and rants, and hopes expressed here at at CB, I am not optimistic that the Celtics could get more than what we think is 70 cents on the dollar for Rondo.

Nice analysis.  I agree, and I think Houston is looking like an interesting option.  Is there a trade that allows Houston to get Rondo, dump Lin and also make room for Carmelo? 

When people are trying to figure out Rondo's trade value, I think it's important to remember that it's just one season of his value, which is very different from his overall long-term value.

In the Herald, there's a quote from a GM saying that if Rondo can show improved health this season, his value will increase, but very few big deals happen once the season has begun.  I think we need to be willing to deal Rondo soon unless some deal for Love materializes.  And even then, I think this team is mostly set up for a long-term rebuild with youth (KO, Sully, Smart, Young and all of the draft picks on the way), so I'm skeptical about changing that direction now.  If we were going to do a quicker rebuild, I think it probably needed to happen before draft night.

[BballTim]

The debates over Rondo above are good and there are a number of points worth considering. One of them, for me, that directly impacts any sort of return the Celtics may get for Rondo is the level of demand by OTHER teams.

It makes absolutely no difference to other teams that either Danny or CBers see an all star pg. They will weigh his value by their need, the cost to get him, and his expected impact on their team.

Currently in the NBA, pg is NOT a position of scarcity, and though Rondo is better than most pg, other teams will also think "how much is that particular upgrade at pg worth to us? Will it propel us to the championship/playoff/etc. or not?"

Rondo may be be a "franchise" pg (a pg who can move the needle for certain teams and make a significant difference in w/l), but how many teams BOTH lack such a player, and, would be good enough already that Rondo could "move their needle" sufficiently to be worth the cost?

THOSE are the likely suitors for Rondo, not teams who are hopeless and rebuilding. For those teams, Rondo's appeal is far less.

  Two of the teams most rumored to be looking at Rondo were Detroit and Sacramento so I'd guess this analysis isn't overly accurate.

[Smokeeye123]

First I'd try to trade him to Memphis and cash in on the fact that they are going to be a lottery team in 3 years. If you can get 1-2 picks of them in the lottery it's worth it.

Then Id look at the  Mavericks/Rockets/Pacers for 2-3 future unprotected picks and filler.

First and foremost you should be looking to try and get potential lottery picks for him.

[saltlover]

Banner 18 in 2016, with Rondo leading the way!

[crimson_stallion]

 But, what then do you think the plan is??? You think we are going to resign 30 year old Rondo to Max Dollars after he blew out his knee, and play Smart full time at shooting guard and have a backcourt where both guys can't shoot jumpers. That's a bad idea.

Why?

Derek Rose couldn't shoot jumpers as a rookie, but Chicago have looked pretty happy with him. 

Likewise Miami and D-Wade.  Hell everybody said Miami would never win with Wade and Lebron, and that those guys were incompatible.  Both slashers, both need the ball in their hands, both weak shooters.  Now they have two new rings.

Avery Bradley looked like he had no hope as a shooter in his first season - everything he took looked horrible.  He shot 25% from 3-10 feet, 20% from 10-15 feet, 22% from 15 feet to the three point line, and 0% from three.  He's now just finished his 4th season as a pro, and he has shot 40% from three in two of those four seasons.

I don't think it's fair on Smart to look at him as a lost cause in terms of his jump shot.  His shot doesn't look that horrendous right now (the way Rondo's always has) and with some work I'm confident he'll become a decent shooter, maybe even better than decent.  He's known as an incredibly hard working guy, so I'd be surprised if he doesn't improve that part of his game. 

Even if he doesn't, it's not the end of the world.  There are a number of other perimeter players out there who have gotten by pretty effectively without a consistent jump shot.  Wade is the real bit one that comes to mind. 

i don't think Danny took Smart with the aim of getting rid of either Bradley or Rondo.  I think he drafted Smart so he has an insurance policy in case he's left with no choice BUT to let one of those guys go.  Also because he was (arguably) the best player available.

Boston could have taken Randle or Vonleh, but then if Bradley gets a massive offer in the $8M-$9M range that Danny decies he can't afford to match, then what does he do?  Resign Bayless as his SG of the future?  Sign a MLE guards in free agency, who woudl almost certainly be worse that Bradley? What about if Bradley stays, but Rondo decides to walk next year for a better offer?  Who becomes out starting PG?

Now there's insurance.  If Bradley leaves, Smart gets promoted and becomes the new starting SG.  If Bradley comes back, then Smart is a guy who Brad can bring off the bench as a 6th man combo guard to get 20-30 minutes a night backing up Rondo and Bradley.  If Rondo then decides to leave next season, Smart can start at PG alongside Bradley.  The pick gives flexiblity, which I'm sure makes Danny's life much easier as a GM.  Having 'too much talent' at the guard spots is a problem that I'm sure any GM would love to have.

[hwangjini_1]

The debates over Rondo above are good and there are a number of points worth considering. One of them, for me, that directly impacts any sort of return the Celtics may get for Rondo is the level of demand by OTHER teams.

It makes absolutely no difference to other teams that either Danny or CBers see an all star pg. They will weigh his value by their need, the cost to get him, and his expected impact on their team.

Currently in the NBA, pg is NOT a position of scarcity, and though Rondo is better than most pg, other teams will also think "how much is that particular upgrade at pg worth to us? Will it propel us to the championship/playoff/etc. or not?"

Rondo may be be a "franchise" pg (a pg who can move the needle for certain teams and make a significant difference in w/l), but how many teams BOTH lack such a player, and, would be good enough already that Rondo could "move their needle" sufficiently to be worth the cost?

THOSE are the likely suitors for Rondo, not teams who are hopeless and rebuilding. For those teams, Rondo's appeal is far less.

  Two of the teams most rumored to be looking at Rondo were Detroit and Sacramento so I'd guess this analysis isn't overly accurate.

what else is new? 

[LarBrd33]

I'd do it for mclemore and their unprotected 2015 and 2017 picks

[BballTim]

The debates over Rondo above are good and there are a number of points worth considering. One of them, for me, that directly impacts any sort of return the Celtics may get for Rondo is the level of demand by OTHER teams.

It makes absolutely no difference to other teams that either Danny or CBers see an all star pg. They will weigh his value by their need, the cost to get him, and his expected impact on their team.

Currently in the NBA, pg is NOT a position of scarcity, and though Rondo is better than most pg, other teams will also think "how much is that particular upgrade at pg worth to us? Will it propel us to the championship/playoff/etc. or not?"

Rondo may be be a "franchise" pg (a pg who can move the needle for certain teams and make a significant difference in w/l), but how many teams BOTH lack such a player, and, would be good enough already that Rondo could "move their needle" sufficiently to be worth the cost?

THOSE are the likely suitors for Rondo, not teams who are hopeless and rebuilding. For those teams, Rondo's appeal is far less.

  Two of the teams most rumored to be looking at Rondo were Detroit and Sacramento so I'd guess this analysis isn't overly accurate.

what else is new? 

  True.

[BigAlTheFuture]

I'd do it for mclemore and their unprotected 2015 and 2017 picks

I would approve of this... better than McLemore & #8. Pretty sure SAC will not make the playoffs next year WITH Rondo. He probably walks in free agency and 2017 becomes another lotto. Two lotto picks + McLemore for Rondo? I'd do that.

[Casperian]

Sure, the possibility exists that we could lose our star PG for nothing if we don't trade him and he decides to walk away in free agency.  The possibility also exists that we could re-sign him and add pieces around him to facilitate speeding up the rebuild process.

If we trade him away now for unproven prospects and or mediocre draft picks, we are almost assured of a lengthy rebuilding process.  If we hold on to him, we at least have a shot at accelerating the rebuilding process and being back in contention sooner rather than later.

If we lose him in free agency, then our rebuild looks to be rather lengthy, but that would have been the case even if he trade him away for pennies on the dollar.  To me, it looks like trying to hold on to him is clearly the gamble worth taking.

So, to recap:

Your strategy is built on the hope that, somehow, the rules of the business don't apply for Rondo and our Celtics, that he'd rather play for the (currently) struggling home team than play for a championship while still in his prime, correct? That's your prerogative, but excuse me if that's not enough for me to buy into. I think that straw hut you're building there is not enough to scare the big, bad wolf.

At least we both agree that it's a gamble, one you think is worth taking, and I think is too steep a price to pay if we lose.

You don't quite have that right.  The strategy I'm hoping for is that Danny and Brad can manage to build a team that looks promising enough and headed enough in the right direction that Rondo will want to stay.  Such a team, headed in the right direction, hopefully will be able to entice other good players to want to come play here.  Couple that with continuing to develop and acquire good, young assets, and I think we could have a formula for success. 

You have done nothing to convince me that the strategy you are laying out brings the team anywhere near title contention any time in the foreseeable future. 

Would you care to explain your risk-free plan for making the Celtics a contender again?

I wasn't talking about your rebuild strategy, I was talking about your strategy to deal with the Rondo situation and him being in the last year of his contract...because we will have to deal with it.

These things, while interconnected, are still two very different issues.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I'd do it for mclemore and their unprotected 2015 and 2017 picks

I would approve of this... better than McLemore & #8. Pretty sure SAC will not make the playoffs next year WITH Rondo. He probably walks in free agency and 2017 becomes another lotto. Two lotto picks + McLemore for Rondo? I'd do that.

Yea I like this too. I wish they had picked Vonleh and we could have gotten him, but I am high on him. Next years draft has a good amount of talented big men in it and having another pick (possibly lottery) will be a great way to trade up if we have to.

[manl_lui]

I predict Rondo is staying

[CoachBo]

Sure, the possibility exists that we could lose our star PG for nothing if we don't trade him and he decides to walk away in free agency.  The possibility also exists that we could re-sign him and add pieces around him to facilitate speeding up the rebuild process.

If we trade him away now for unproven prospects and or mediocre draft picks, we are almost assured of a lengthy rebuilding process.  If we hold on to him, we at least have a shot at accelerating the rebuilding process and being back in contention sooner rather than later.

If we lose him in free agency, then our rebuild looks to be rather lengthy, but that would have been the case even if he trade him away for pennies on the dollar.  To me, it looks like trying to hold on to him is clearly the gamble worth taking.

So, to recap:

Your strategy is built on the hope that, somehow, the rules of the business don't apply for Rondo and our Celtics, that he'd rather play for the (currently) struggling home team than play for a championship while still in his prime, correct? That's your prerogative, but excuse me if that's not enough for me to buy into. I think that straw hut you're building there is not enough to scare the big, bad wolf.

At least we both agree that it's a gamble, one you think is worth taking, and I think is too steep a price to pay if we lose.

You don't quite have that right.  The strategy I'm hoping for is that Danny and Brad can manage to build a team that looks promising enough and headed enough in the right direction that Rondo will want to stay.  Such a team, headed in the right direction, hopefully will be able to entice other good players to want to come play here.  Couple that with continuing to develop and acquire good, young assets, and I think we could have a formula for success. 

You have done nothing to convince me that the strategy you are laying out brings the team anywhere near title contention any time in the foreseeable future. 

Would you care to explain your risk-free plan for making the Celtics a contender again?

It's going to be fascinating to see who's still on this board when Rondo leaves - especially considering this team as currently constituted isn't an iota better than last year. In fact, it's worse.

I'm betting this board thins out.