I'm actually going to make a completely different suggestion that isn't on this list - trade for Josh Smith. Yes, I know you're all going to think I'm crazy but hear me out, for I have my reasons...
A: Value
First of all, Detroit pretty much HAS TO get rid of one of their starting front court players. Drummond is pretty much untouchable, which leaves Monroe and Smith as potential trade options.
Monroe is younger (more upside) plus he can stretch the floor with his shooting as well as score in the post, and he's also a very good passer. This offensive versatility makes him a very nice fit alongside Andre Drummond, who is a more defensive oriented big.
All this means that Detroit's unquestionable preference would be to trade Smith, not Monroe. Because of this (and the fact that they absolutley cannot keep all three and succeed) it means that Josh Smith would most likely be available for a major bargain. Detroit would probably be happy to give Smith up for almost nothing if it means getting his salary off their books, so a combination of Hump's expiring contract, Bogan's non-guaranteed contract and a second round pick might be all it takes to get Smith in Boston Green. Even if it means upgrading that pick to the Clippers 1st rounder, that's still a bargain deal to bring in a player of Smith's calibre.
B - Rebutting Smith's reputation as an inefficient scorer
The biggest reason for people don't like Josh Smith is because he's seen a highly inefficient scorer - a guy who takes too many jumpers (especially threes). This was really highlighted in Detroit last season when he shot a career worst 42% from the field and equally poor 26% from three (on a ghastly 3.4 3PA per game).
Lets take a look at those with a little more depth.
Firstly, perimeter shooting is one of Smith's well documented weaknesses. He's not incapable of hitting the odd open jumper (from midrange or from three) but it's certainly not something you focus your offense around.
However one area Smith does excel is inside the paint. In the paint, over his past 4 seasons, Josh Smith has shot:
2010-11: 69%
2011-12: 69%
2012-13: 77%
2013-14: 71%
Over his entire career Smith has shot a very impressive 67% in that 0-3 foot range, and has never shot below about 60% in that area.
Smith's struggles in Detroit came from the the fact that he was forced to play the SF position, leaving him with no chioce but to spend more time on the perimeter. With a role like this, Smith was doomed from the start to be nothing but horribly inefficient. Lets check the stats to prove it.
In seasons where Smith has predominantly played SF, his per-36 minute averages have been:
15.1 Pts
7.9 Reb
3.0 Ast
2.5 Blk
1.2 Stl
43% FG
In seasons where Smith has predominantly played PF, his per-36 minute averages have been:
17.2 Pts
8.6 Reb
3.7 Ast
2.0 Blk
1.4 Stl
47% FG
Smith has has had production in every statistical area (bar blocks) in the season's where he's played mostly at the PF spot, but the two numbers that stand out the most are his scoring and shotting percentages. Not only has he scored 2 PPG more as a PF, but he's also shot a whopping 4% more efficiently.
There is no doubt about it - for Josh Smith to produce at his best, he needs to be starting at the PF spot. In Boston that's exactly where he would be - down low, in the paint.
For those who are worried about replacing Sully with Smith...Sully's 3PA, 3P% and FG% from last season were all on par with what Smith shot last year as a SF. Even in his absolute worst case, Smith's still won't make you cringe any more than Sully already does.
C - Rim protection
I really like our overall lineup right now, but the one thing I think we're really lacking is a rim protector to put alongside Sully/Olynyk.
The traditional way of adding a rim protector is to look for a big center, which makes perfect sense given that optimally you don't want either Sully nor Olynyk playing center. But I ran some numbers to work out who are the best 'rim protection' in the NBA by checking which players allowed the lowest FG% at the rim.
To ensure there are no bogus numbers coming from small sample sizes, I filtered players using the following criteria:
1) At least 40 games played and 20 MPG (eliminate the small sample of guys who didn't play much)
2) Players who had at least 3 Opponent FG's attempted at the rim per game (eliminate the guards and swingmen who's figures are skewed by small sample size)
The end results for the top 20 rim protectors were as follows:
1- Roy Hibbert - 41.4%
2 - Robin Lopez - 42.5%
3 - Giannis Antetokounmpo - 43.5%
4 - Serge Ibaka - 43.9%
5 - Tiago Splitter - 44.1%
6 - Andrew Bogus - 45%
7 - Taj Gibson - 45.7%
8 - John Henson - 46.3%
9 - Joakim Noah - 46.8%
10 - Timofey Mosgov - 46.9%
11 - David West - 47%
12 - Josh Smith - 47.1%
13 - Kevin Garnett - 47.4%
14 - Tim Duncan - 47.6%
15 - Omer Asik - 47.7%
16 - Dwight Howard - 47.8%
17 - Amir Johnson - 47.9%
18 - Jermaine Oneal - 47.9%
19 - Paul Pierce - 48.2%
20 - Jason Thompson - 48.3%
No, your eyes do not decieve you.
According to pure statistics, Josh Smith was a slightly better rim protector last season then:
Kevin Garnett
Tim Duncan
Omer Asik
Dwight Howard
He also ranked only slightly below the reigning DPOTY, Joakim Noah.
By comparison our current bigs ranked as follows:
Kris Humphries - 50.8%
Jared Sullinger - 53.9%
Brandon Bass - 54.1%
Kelly Olynyk - 56.3%
He's not the first person you think of because of his lack of imposing size (realistically, closer to 6'8") but statistics show that Josh Smith is an ELITE rim protector. His impressive length and insane athleticism (and surprising strength) allow him to challenge shots better than most 7 footers out there, and he also managed to do that without getting himself in to foul trouble (2.8 FPG for his career).
Suddenly the thought of combining Josh Smith with somebody like Kelly Olynyk starts to make quite a bit of sense. Not only does Smith have the ability to protect the rim as well as any big man out there, but he also has the quickness to switch on picks and defend opposing centers, small forwards or even shooting guards. This would go a long way to masking Olynyk's limitations, and would Stevens to start Olynyk at the center spot, knowing that Smith has his back if he slips up.
D - Perimeter Defense and rebounding
If there's one thing we do know about Marcus Smart, it's that he's one hell of a defender. He's got the combination of strength and athleticism to defend either guard spot, and could even step out and guard the off small foward from time to time (much like Tony Allen does).
At SG we have Avery Bradley, a guy who (at 22 years old) has already made an All-Defensive team.
At SF we have Jeff Green - a highly underrated defensive player who has shown on countless occasions that he's capable of slowing (or shutting down) even the most dominant superstar small forwards.
Now you add Josh Smith at the PF spot.
Right now it doesn't even matter who your center is - that's an elite defensive team.
E - Rebounding
Small sample size, but Kelly Olynyk averaged about 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes last season.
Josh Smith has averaged 8.5 RPG in seasons over his career when playing the PF spot. Avery
Bradley from memory ranked top 5 among all NBA guards last year in rebounding (just over 4 per game).
Marcus Smart was a beast on the boards in college.
Throw in Jeff Green's typical 6 RPG and you're getting about 33 boards a night from your stating 5.
If you can get another 15 boards from your bench (by no means unrealistic) then you have a pretty good rebouding team too.
F - Transition game
Now we're getting to the fun part. Once this elite defensive lineup gets a stop, you have two bigs (Josh Smith and Kelly Olynyk) who are both exceptional - maybe even elite - passing big men ready to throw the outlet pass. Hell, even Olynyk has shown he's very willing (and suprisingly fast) runner in transition.
Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley, Jeff Green, Josh Smith - you'll be putting points on the board before your opponent even knew what happened.
On the other end of the court, those four guys will be entertaining you will so many chase-down blocks that you'll be hitting the replay button over, and over, and over, and over....
I know it seems crazy but again, I actually really think Smith would fit in incredibly well here - with or without Rondo. It seems like the perfect situation to bring the best out of him, and he'd be available on the cheap.
If not smith, then the next guys I'd go for (in order) are:
Gortat (only other player who can win you games on both ends of the court)
Noah (defense definately helps cover for Olynyk/Sully)
Monroe (Give us much needed post presense and front court scoring)
Okafor (if budget is limited, he's a nice pickup)
Okay, first off, tp for the effort with this post - this seems more like a well-thought out opening thread message. Not all will agree, but it was nicely articulated.
As for Smith, I can definitely see how it would work - he should be cheap, productive, and help keep Rondo around. My only concern would be the center position and an overloaded PF spot. If we could swing Sully or KO for a [very] viable center, then this move would really help round out the roster. It would also make it 'okay' if we got a center who wasn't terribly athletically gifted.
What do people think it would take to get Smith? Remember, he was signed as a FA and didn't cost the Pistons anything except cap space. I would like to hold on to Green, if possible, since the line-up would be very well-balanced (if we acquired a center), but that might be the only move. Would people be willing to deal Green?
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