Many mocks have Embiid going to Orlando......
Noel fell to 6, in a far weaker draft, with a lesser injury.
While we are on that same train of thought, Embiid is by far the bigger prospect of the two, and even considered healthy, many of the teams didn't have confidence in what Noel brought to the table.
Yes, Noel fell... but the opportunity cost on missing out on Noel or Embiid is not nearly the same. But as you point out, there's a cost on passing up on healthy talent on this draft.
So the situations are not really all that comparable for prognostication once one gets into the details.