A Trade Down I Would Consider

[PhoSita]

I think they end up being the players you trade picks for if you want to put yourself on the dreaded treadmill of mediocrity.

Honestly, I tend to agree -- but that's the kind of return I think the Celtics will get if they trade their top pick.  You're going to get players that will help you climb back to the middle of the pack.

That's why I'm not a fan of trading the pick.  I'd be interested in seeing a fully season of healthy Rondo with a reasonably talented team around him.  Seeing the Celtics in the playoffs again, albeit for a few games, would be nice.  But I think that's just the allure of a quick fix.

[LooseCannon]

He has been at least a decent defender every season so far in his career -- despite being on an awful Orlando team the last two years.

I've never seen Vucevic described as a decent defender.  He's perceived as a guy with a massive lack of athleticism (compare his 25" vertical leap to Jared Sullinger's 32") who doesn't block shots and is soft on his post defense.

His defensive ratings don't bear out this idea that he's a poor defender (97, 105, 103).

No, he's not athletic at all, but he dominates the boards, he's tall and long, and he's difficult to push around inside.  Any defensive deficiencies he has now I think could be more than overcome as he gains more experience and is coached up by a good defensive coach. 

Plenty of players with Vucevic's physical profile have been very, very good defenders.  It's not all about shot blocking and vertical.  Not at the center position.

Most of Vucevic's defensive value comes from being a good rebounder and limiting the opposing team to one shot.

I'm really not a big believer in defensive rating as a measure of absolute value.  I think it has some limited value in measuring relative value among teammates, but since an NBA defense is sometimes only as strong as its weakest link, the stat is very vulnerable to teammate effects.  I'm not willing to say that Vucevic is a good defender, but I am willing to say that he is probably not better than Spencer Hawes or Kyle O'Quinn.

[PhoSita]

I'm really not a big believer in defensive rating as a measure of absolute value.  I think it has some limited value in measuring relative value among teammates, but since an NBA defense is sometimes only as strong as its weakest link, the stat is very vulnerable to teammate effects.  I'm not willing to say that Vucevic is a good defender, but I am willing to say that he is probably not better than Spencer Hawes or Kyle O'Quinn.

Not better than those guys?  I think that's too harsh.

Defensive rebounding is an underrated aspect of defense, by the way.  The Celtics were fairly poor in that area this year, despite being a generally good rebounding team.

[LooseCannon]

I'm really not a big believer in defensive rating as a measure of absolute value.  I think it has some limited value in measuring relative value among teammates, but since an NBA defense is sometimes only as strong as its weakest link, the stat is very vulnerable to teammate effects.  I'm not willing to say that Vucevic is a good defender, but I am willing to say that he is probably not better than Spencer Hawes or Kyle O'Quinn.

Not better than those guys?  I think that's too harsh.

Defensive rebounding is an underrated aspect of defense, by the way.  The Celtics were fairly poor in that area this year, despite being a generally good rebounding team.

I don't see how that is harsh.  I didn't say he was definitely worse, just not better, so I left open the possibility that he could be about the same.  Given his huge athletic deficiencies, his ceiling on defense is probably "adequate". 

The Celtics were barely below average on defensive rebounding, as measured by total rebounding percentage, so I'm not sure I would call them poor in that area.   "Mediocre" is probably a better label.

[PhoSita]

I don't see how that is harsh.  I didn't say he was definitely worse, just not better, so I left open the possibility that he could be about the same. 

I think of Spencer Hawes as a pretty poor defender, and I'll admit I don't really know anything about Kyle O'Quinn.  I think Vucevic is at least a perfectly fine defensive option at center.

[slamtheking]

I think the original proposal was a nice twist on the usual "how can we trade for a top-3 pick or a superstar". 

Vucevic and Afflalo would fill 2 positions of need on this team and they are good enough to start over our incumbants.  getting the 12th pick balances out the talent factor somewhat-->3 good role players (expecting #12 to at least be role player caliber if not a decent starter) for a potential all-star at #5 and a lower-quality role player at #17.

the more I think about the trade, I'm not sure I do it if only because I agree with the other posters that have said this would improve the team just enough to be mediocre.  team would definitely make the playoffs, maybe even with the division, but would have a helluva time getting out of the first round without a real go-to scorer.

[Who]

I don't see how that is harsh.  I didn't say he was definitely worse, just not better, so I left open the possibility that he could be about the same. 

I think of Spencer Hawes as a pretty poor defender, and I'll admit I don't really know anything about Kyle O'Quinn.  I think Vucevic is at least a perfectly fine defensive option at center.

I rate Vucevic and Hawes as similar defensively and amongst the worst in the league out of starting centers.

O'Quinn is even worse again.

[PhoSita]

  team would definitely make the playoffs, maybe even with the division, but would have a helluva time getting out of the first round without a real go-to scorer.

Yep.  I'm on board with you.  Having that real go-to scorer is, unfortunately, the starting point for building a really good team, and as we've discussed all year, it's very difficult to get that sort of guy without making home run trades or drafting one, and that usually (though not always) requires a high pick. 

We've got a high pick this season, but it may not yield a go-to scorer (it probably won't).  So the only option may be to develop young players again (i.e. lose a lot of games) and hope for luck in next year's draft, or else wait multiple years for a superstar to become available via trade.

[PhoSita]

I don't see how that is harsh.  I didn't say he was definitely worse, just not better, so I left open the possibility that he could be about the same. 

I think of Spencer Hawes as a pretty poor defender, and I'll admit I don't really know anything about Kyle O'Quinn.  I think Vucevic is at least a perfectly fine defensive option at center.

I rate Vucevic and Hawes as similar defensively and amongst the worst in the league out of starting centers.

O'Quinn is even worse again.

I think Vucevic's rebounding alone puts him ahead of Hawes.

In any case, the real question is whether you think Vucevic is a finished product defensively, or not.  He's young enough that trying to develop him into a quality defender along with being a solid offensive player and very good rebounder makes sense.

[Who]

I don't see how that is harsh.  I didn't say he was definitely worse, just not better, so I left open the possibility that he could be about the same. 

I think of Spencer Hawes as a pretty poor defender, and I'll admit I don't really know anything about Kyle O'Quinn.  I think Vucevic is at least a perfectly fine defensive option at center.

I rate Vucevic and Hawes as similar defensively and amongst the worst in the league out of starting centers.

O'Quinn is even worse again.

I think Vucevic's rebounding alone puts him ahead of Hawes.

In any case, the real question is whether you think Vucevic is a finished product defensively, or not.  He's young enough that trying to develop him into a quality defender along with being a solid offensive player and very good rebounder makes sense.

I feel a lot better about developing bad defensive bigs when there is already a strong defensive big on the team alongside him to help show him the way. Why I liked the idea of acquiring JaVale McGee to play alongside KG but hate the idea of acquiring McGee now that KG is gone.

I would like to have Vucevic here but I wouldn't give up much to get him. He doesn't play winning basketball and it's a question mark whether he ever will. Too much doubt about Vucevic to pay what Orlando is likely to ask for him. I'd rather go after someone like Asik who is a finished product defensively and will immediately create top defensive team + mindset when put alongside players who are already here.

[sofutomygaha]

I have a question. Are we talking about the same Vucevic who is 6'11, 23 years old, and put up 30 and 21 against the Clippers in November? You'd know the one I'm talking about; he's statistically and dimensionally identical to Demarcus Cousins.

Follow up question- is this the same Celticsblog where everyone is always crying about how we don't have a legit center?

[Lucky17]

You'd know the one I'm talking about; he's statistically and dimensionally identical to Demarcus Cousins.

This seems a bold claim. Are there any metrics or stats to back this up?

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2014_leaders.html

I look here, and see Cousins' name a lot more than I see Vucevic's.

[PhoSita]

I have a question. Are we talking about the same Vucevic who is 6'11, 23 years old, and put up 30 and 21 against the Clippers in November? You'd know the one I'm talking about; he's statistically and dimensionally identical to Demarcus Cousins.

Follow up question- is this the same Celticsblog where everyone is always crying about how we don't have a legit center?

Haha.  TP.

[LooseCannon]

I have a question. Are we talking about the same Vucevic who is 6'11, 23 years old, and put up 30 and 21 against the Clippers in November? You'd know the one I'm talking about; he's statistically and dimensionally identical to Demarcus Cousins.

Follow up question- is this the same Celticsblog where everyone is always crying about how we don't have a legit center?

Hey, don't forget.  We have Vitor Faverani.  In November, he put up a game with 12 points and 18 rebounds against....oh, wait, the Bucks?  Never mind.

[sofutomygaha]

Lucky17- have a look at this comparison of their advanced stats and the rate stats for their careers so far (they are very nearly the same age)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=vucevni01&y1=2014&p2=couside01&y2=2014#advanced::none

Cousins gets more steals, draws more fouls, and gets significantly more usage. Meanwhile, Vucevic has shot more accurately and turned the ball over much less. Otherwise, I'd say they are kind of amazingly similar.

You can also find their combine measurements at draft express, but I'll summarize that Vucevic measured an inch taller, 1/2 inch less wingspan, and an inch less standing reach. They measured the same standing vertical leap. They've both grown and gotten more cut since their drafts, of course.