Chad Ford chat

[Lucky17]

I think Exum is definitely below the Big Three. But I also think he's above the rest of that tier that has Randle, Smart, and Vonleh (and maybe Gordon), because he's got such crazy upside to him.

Exum is pretty much his own tier.

[LooseCannon]

Is Exum a bit like a shorter, Australian Giannis?  An intriguing foreign athlete who needs to work on his shooting and poses problems for scouts because he plays in a weak league?

[Quetzalcoatl]

Is Exum a bit like a shorter, Australian Giannis?  An intriguing foreign athlete who needs to work on his shooting and poses problems for scouts because he plays in a weak league?

No, he is much more NBA ready and plays both guard positions (mainly PG), not SF.  His height of 6'6" is therefore great for that.  He has played games against top international competition in front of scouts and impressed everyone, including outplaying all of the top Americans in his age bracket.  Gianis is just a freak athlete who if you can teach to play basketball will be a force, but needs a ton of training.  Exum already gets it.

[PhoSita]

Some interesting stuff on players often discussed on here.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50456/nba-insider-chad-ford

Dino Radja (Boston)

True or False: If Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and Exum are off the board, the Celtics will trade their pick.
Chad Ford  (1:54 PM)

To who? Value of that pick goes way down if those four guys are off the board.

Bold it.  Underline it.  Put it in all caps.


TO WHO?  VALUE OF THAT PICK GOES WAY DOWN IF THOSE FOUR GUYS ARE OFF THE BOARD.

A team that really wants Smart. Or Randle.

I'm sure plenty of teams really want those two guys.  But I can't imagine a team giving us fair return for them.

There are too many question marks with players outside the top 3-4.  Nobody is going to give you return on their potential value because of those question marks, so you'll get a package that reflects an uncertain commodity.

Much, much better off trying to develop them and sell high on them later, or keep them.

[PhoSita]

That's not really true, even if you bold it, underline it, and put it all in caps.  There seems to be a clear separation between the top three and then everybody else.

Eh, I'm not really too invested in Exum being part of the group.  If you want to say it's a top 3, that's fine by me.  The point is that if our pick doesn't fall into that range, I don't expect the return to be very high.

[Rondo9]

Some interesting stuff on players often discussed on here.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50456/nba-insider-chad-ford

Dino Radja (Boston)

True or False: If Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and Exum are off the board, the Celtics will trade their pick.
Chad Ford  (1:54 PM)

To who? Value of that pick goes way down if those four guys are off the board.

Bold it.  Underline it.  Put it in all caps.


TO WHO?  VALUE OF THAT PICK GOES WAY DOWN IF THOSE FOUR GUYS ARE OFF THE BOARD.

A team that really wants Smart. Or Randle.

I'm sure plenty of teams really want those two guys.  But I can't imagine a team giving us fair return for them.

There are too many question marks with players outside the top 3-4.  Nobody is going to give you return on their potential value because of those question marks, so you'll get a package that reflects an uncertain commodity.

Much, much better off trying to develop them and sell high on them later, or keep them.

I'm sure you'll find decent offers for them. Not as much as the top three players though.

[Lucky17]

Definitely question marks for Exum and that next tier.

But, assuming Saric is also as good as advertised, it seems he's probably the last pick (at #9) before you drop down to another tier of player with even more question marks (or less upside).

A team looking for a PG who's not wild about Ennis might try to move up into Smart's range.

A team looking for a PF who's not a typical stretch 4 might try to move up into Randle's range.

It'll take the right buyer for Ainge to sell the pick. It's quite possible there won't be a blockbuster offer, as Pho says.

[Lucky17]

For example: let's assume that Detroit somehow finishes #8 after the lottery.

Is Smart going to last past the Lakers? Maybe the Pistons will want to move up, even though it's just a couple slots.

[BballTim]

Some interesting stuff on players often discussed on here.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/50456/nba-insider-chad-ford

Dino Radja (Boston)

True or False: If Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and Exum are off the board, the Celtics will trade their pick.
Chad Ford  (1:54 PM)

To who? Value of that pick goes way down if those four guys are off the board.

Bold it.  Underline it.  Put it in all caps.


TO WHO?  VALUE OF THAT PICK GOES WAY DOWN IF THOSE FOUR GUYS ARE OFF THE BOARD.

A team that really wants Smart. Or Randle.

I'm sure plenty of teams really want those two guys.  But I can't imagine a team giving us fair return for them.

There are too many question marks with players outside the top 3-4.  Nobody is going to give you return on their potential value because of those question marks, so you'll get a package that reflects an uncertain commodity.

 You'd be surprised. Plenty of people here would gladly trade a 4 time all-star in his 20s for a pick that's worse than ours. We should be able to get better than that.

[csfansince60s]

Definitely question marks for Exum and that next tier.

But, assuming Saric is also as good as advertised, it seems he's probably the last pick (at #9) before you drop down to another tier of player with even more question marks (or less upside).

A team looking for a PG who's not wild about Ennis might try to move up into Smart's range.

A team looking for a PF who's not a typical stretch 4 might try to move up into Randle's range.

It'll take the right buyer for Ainge to sell the pick. It's quite possible there won't be a blockbuster offer, as Pho says.

Maybe not a blockbuster deal initially, but perhaps something to set the stage for the alluded to "fireworks".

Maybe Philly or Phoenix become enamored with one of Smart/ Randle/Gordon/ Vonleh.

Philly has the 10th pick and second round picks up the ying-yang.

Maybe our pick for their 10th, 32nd, 39th and 47th or their 10th and take away the protection of their first that we have next year.

Phoenix could give us their 14th, 18th and 27th pick, if they love one of the guys we could pick for them.

We could then use our multitude of picks to do a blockbuster.

[fantankerous]

Is Exum a bit like a shorter, Australian Giannis?  An intriguing foreign athlete who needs to work on his shooting and poses problems for scouts because he plays in a weak league?

I believe that Exum's value will vacillate quite a bit when workouts begin.  Given his lack of visibility and poor competition, his workouts will affect his value to a greater degree than most prospects. 

I also predict we'll see his game dissected from a leaked workout video taken on a cell phone camera at some point.

[fantankerous]

Definitely question marks for Exum and that next tier.

But, assuming Saric is also as good as advertised, it seems he's probably the last pick (at #9) before you drop down to another tier of player with even more question marks (or less upside).

A team looking for a PG who's not wild about Ennis might try to move up into Smart's range.

A team looking for a PF who's not a typical stretch 4 might try to move up into Randle's range.

It'll take the right buyer for Ainge to sell the pick. It's quite possible there won't be a blockbuster offer, as Pho says.

Maybe not a blockbuster deal initially, but perhaps something to set the stage for the alluded to "fireworks".

Maybe Philly or Phoenix become enamored with one of Smart/ Randle/Gordon/ Vonleh.

Philly has the 10th pick and second round picks up the ying-yang.

Maybe our pick for their 10th, 32nd, 39th and 47th or their 10th and take away the protection of their first that we have next year.

Phoenix could give us their 14th, 18th and 27th pick, if they love one of the guys we could pick for them.

We could then use our multitude of picks to do a blockbuster.

I don't understand how making a bad trade for our 5th pick helps us "to do a blockbuster."  In fact, it's far more likely that Philly or Phoenix would pull off a major trade with our 5th pick before we make something happen with that smorgasbord of mediocre picks.

[Celtics18]

That's not really true, even if you bold it, underline it, and put it all in caps.  There seems to be a clear separation between the top three and then everybody else.

Eh, I'm not really too invested in Exum being part of the group.  If you want to say it's a top 3, that's fine by me.  The point is that if our pick doesn't fall into that range, I don't expect the return to be very high.

I have no idea what a 4 to 7 pick would be worth.  If it can't net us an established star, then I'd rather keep it and hope that we land a stud.

This is a good position to be in.  I'm looking forward to an exciting off-season. 

[freshinthehouse]

I'm looking forward to an exciting off-season.

You and me both, brother.