The Lin-Asik Gap Year Plan

[Lucky17]

Lucky... When does the trade exception expire?

July 12, I believe. Plenty of time between the end of the moratorium and the expiration date to make some hay.

I thought the kg to Brooklyn trade was done day of the moratorium ending.

It was announced as having been agreed to, but it wasn't finalized for a couple days following. July 12, 2013 was when the league office processed the trade, and the clock on the TE started.

[PhoSita]

  I'm not sure what the goal of all that is. The team won't be terrible but is unlikely to ever be better than decent.

Pretty sure I laid it out.  Asset acquisition and future flexibility while having some decent short term veterans in place to provide competition and examples for the young players (and keep the team from getting mired in a losing a cycle).


The idea is not to be married to that set of players.  Some of them will work out and have a future here.  Others won't.

Year 2 of the rebuild is just not likely to be the time to already have locked in place the team of the future.  But the potential is still there if Smart, Gordon, and Nurkic work out.

[BballTim]

  I'm not sure what the goal of all that is. The team won't be terrible but is unlikely to ever be better than decent.

Pretty sure I laid it out.  Asset acquisition and future flexibility while having some decent short term veterans in place to provide competition and examples for the young players (and keep the team from getting mired in a losing a cycle).


The idea is not to be married to that set of players.  Some of them will work out and have a future here.  Others won't.

Year 2 of the rebuild is just not likely to be the time to already have locked in place the team of the future.  But the potential is still there if Smart, Gordon, and Nurkic work out.

  We've got plenty of assets now and I don't see much flexibility coming out of that other than getting someone to take Bass without returning salary, which could be done without those other moves. I mean I can see how you changed the roster, but I don't see the path to becoming contenders after you make those moves.

[Moranis]

  I'm not sure what the goal of all that is. The team won't be terrible but is unlikely to ever be better than decent.

Pretty sure I laid it out.  Asset acquisition and future flexibility while having some decent short term veterans in place to provide competition and examples for the young players (and keep the team from getting mired in a losing a cycle).


The idea is not to be married to that set of players.  Some of them will work out and have a future here.  Others won't.

Year 2 of the rebuild is just not likely to be the time to already have locked in place the team of the future.  But the potential is still there if Smart, Gordon, and Nurkic work out.

  We've got plenty of assets now and I don't see much flexibility coming out of that other than getting someone to take Bass without returning salary, which could be done without those other moves. I mean I can see how you changed the roster, but I don't see the path to becoming contenders after you make those moves.

I agree.  There is no point in acquiring Asik if you trade Rondo.  It is a different team, but still a mediocre one. 

I believe the Celtics either need to go all in (i.e. trade picks and players to build around Rondo) or go full on rebuild (i.e. trade Rondo, Bass, Wallace, etc.).  I just don't see the point in making trades that confuse either take and make Boston an Atlanta/Charlotte level team without much hope to get out of that tier.  Just no point in that.

[CFAN38]

So . . . I'm kinda goin' a little nuts waiting for May 20th.  So many potential future scenarios for our Boston Celtics.  I just want to have a clearer idea of what's in store!  Some good ideas being batted around by my fellow posters on the forums these days.  Some not so good ideas (in my opinion). 

Here's my stab at a set of off-season events that would leave me feeling pretty satisfied with the direction of the team headed into next season.  It's kind of a combination of some ideas I've seen around here, plus one or two of my own.


Premise(s): Celtics end up with the #5 pick in the draft.  Lakers end up with the #6.


Step 1:

On draft day / night, trade Rondo to the Lakers for Steve Nash's expiring contract, Kendall Marshall, and the #6 pick (Nash will retire following a buyout agreement).

Step 2:

Also on draft day, trade Keith Bogans and Joel Anthony for Jeremy Lin, Omer Asik, and the #25 pick.  Use a chunk of the Pierce Trade Exception to absorb Lin / Asik (either one).  Houston would do this if they felt they had a chance at signing Carmelo Anthony and needed to clear cap space to do so.

Nothing like helping yourself and helping to move the star player of a division rival out of the conference at the same time!

Step 3:

With the #5 pick, take Exum if he is available, or else take Marcus Smart.  With the next pick, take Aaron Gordon.  Later in the 1st round, package the #17 pick and the #25 pick to move up into the late lottery.  Potential trade partners include Orlando and Denver (likely to be sitting at #11 and #12).  Use the resulting pick on Jusuf Nurkic.


That's quite a flurry of moves on draft day, but it doesn't seem so far-fetched to me. 


Step 4:

When Avery Bradley gets an offer close to 4 years / $30 million in free agency, let him walk.  Make an offer to Jodie Meeks for 3 years / $15 million. Go as high as 3 years / $18 million.  That should be sufficient.

Meeks is a similar player to Bradley, except that he takes a large chunk of his shots from behind the arc, rather than deep in 2-point territory.  As a result, he's a much more efficient offensive player with more high-scoring-performance potential.  He also has fewer injury concerns.  His defense is not on the same level, but it's decent. 

Step 5:

Trade Bass and Vitor Faverani to a team with cap space that could use some depth at the big man spots.  Atlanta seems a likely partner -- Brand could retire or move on to a true contender this summer and Pero Antic is already kind of old.  Vitor would be a worthwhile pickup for cheap, and Bass could be a solid replacement for Brand and / or Mike Scott without taking up future cap space.


These moves would result in the following depth chart:


Lin / Marshall / Pressey
Meeks / Smart* / Babb
Green / Johnson / Wallace
Sullinger / Gordon
Asik / Olynyk / Nurkic


*or Exum


Analysis

- That team is more balanced by far than last year's team.  Asik is the defensive anchor that has been missing, and the other four members of the starting lineup can hit the three.  Meeks in particular is a deadeye. 

This would not be an especially good team, but they could be more consistently competitive, and it would give Stevens more logical pieces with which to formulate an actual offensive and defensive system, instead of odds and ends.


- There's lots of young talent on the bench.  Lots.  But having guys like Lin, Meeks, Green, and Asik playing in front of them means playing time will need to be earned, and players won't be forced into roles they aren't ready to play.  Any of the aforementioned players could transition to a bench role if necessary, also.

This ensures that Gordon won't be playing 30+ minutes at SF, a position he probably doesn't know how to play at the NBA level yet, and even more importantly, it means Smart won't be forced to become a full-time NBA point guard right off the bat.


- The contracts are set up pretty nicely.  Lin and Asik expire after next season, though neither should be unreasonably expensive to retain if the team should so choose.  Furthermore, Jeff Green will probably not exercise his player option for the fourth year of his deal, so that means he'll probably expire after next season, too.  Point being: future cap flexibility is maintained under this plan.


- This is obviously not as exciting as trading a mountain of assets for Kevin Love.  Not ending up with Wiggins, Parker, or Embiid would also be a bummer.  You can only work with what you've got, though, and Kevin Love may not be available, and the Celtics probably won't get a top 3 pick (that's just the odds).

This scenario also involves trading away our current best player who is the only thing close to an established star on the roster. 

However, there's a very real possibility that Rondo leaves the Celtics next season to go join a team that's ready to compete for a championship in the short term.  He could very well join the Lakers, in fact (he and Kobe have admitted deep admiration and respect for one another on multiple occasions).  A top 6 pick in this draft (plus a cheap backup point guard who may or may not be better than Pressey) is a great return for a player like Rondo.



Thoughts?  Love?  Hate?  Any of the steps / moves that you liked despite not being so keen on some of the others?  How would you feel about watching the resulting team?

Not sexy but plausible,

Not 100% sold on trading Rondo to the lakers if we land the #5, my thoughts on Rondo to the lakers are contigent on the Cs getting lucking with their pick (top 3) and using Lakers pick for Exum, Smart or Ennis. Though I could see your proposition happening. Also would like to add that Nash isnt likely bought out. Better off keeping him on the bench to mentor for the year. He has already said he enjoys the role of mentor.

I also don't think anyone offers AB 7.5mill per, i expect him back on the Cs for 5-6mill.

Smart, Lin, and AB would then make for a fan guard rotation to watch.

Trading up for Nurkic is a tough one. He will be a good NBA center but poor fit with Sully and KO on defense. In the end he is worth on top 12 pick so BPA makes it a good move.

[PhoSita]

I agree.  There is no point in acquiring Asik if you trade Rondo.  It is a different team, but still a mediocre one. 

I believe the Celtics either need to go all in (i.e. trade picks and players to build around Rondo) or go full on rebuild (i.e. trade Rondo, Bass, Wallace, etc.).  I just don't see the point in making trades that confuse either take and make Boston an Atlanta/Charlotte level team without much hope to get out of that tier.  Just no point in that.

Yes, it's still a mediocre team.  Hence the term "gap year."

Generally, I would agree with you that acquiring Asik if we're trading Rondo makes little sense -- if the team is giving up assets to get him.

As here, where the team is giving up nothing but expiring / non-guaranteed deals and the money it will take to pay Asik next season, I think it's fine.  Asik can be a one year rental. 

If Asik is not available for such a low cost, I would consider bringing in a stop-gap solution at center like Emeka Okafor, who is not likely to cost much, either, and could be brought in on a very team-friendly deal.

I just think there's a lot of value in bringing in a true center who can give the team quality minutes, because it will allow Sullinger and Olynyk to get more time at their true position, PF.  It will also help the Celtics bring along any young center (e.g. Nurkic, Capela, or even Embiid) slowly, rather than throwing them into the fire before they are ready.

Further, it gives Brad Stevens the opportunity to show what he can do defensively when he has the basic, fundamental pieces for an NBA defense.  I think it's important not to forget that we have a young, relatively inexperienced coach who needs to develop, too. 

Giving him a team that will allow him to actually develop coherent strategies and implement a system moving forward will help him become a better coach.  There's only so much Brad can really do if all season he's just shuffling around mismatched pieces.



I would agree with you that creating a "Atlanta / Charlotte" style team would not make sense if the team were locked into such a situation.  However, again, this is a gap year plan.  After next season, the team would be committed only to Meeks, Wallace, potentially Jeff Green, and a bunch of quality young players.  They'd still have a lot of picks coming down the pike.  In other words, the team would have all the flexibility in the world.

[PhoSita]

  We've got plenty of assets now and I don't see much flexibility coming out of that other than getting someone to take Bass without returning salary, which could be done without those other moves. I mean I can see how you changed the roster, but I don't see the path to becoming contenders after you make those moves.

I think our key difference of opinion here, I'm guessing, is that you see a path to becoming a contender if we keep Rondo (i.e. build around Rondo), whereas I don't see such a path there.


So for me, this plan basically involves getting additional young assets for next year while creating a situation that would be conducive to their gradual development.  It's not supposed to be a "set us on a clear path to contention" plan.  It's just clearing the deck a bit and setting the team up to have pieces that actually kind of fit next season.

[cltc5]

I Love the scenarios to be honest.  Too many people with green colors glasses on around here can't see that this is a business first... Personal reasons aside.  These deals make us younger and competitive  now and in the future.

[LooseCannon]

I believe the Celtics either need to go all in (i.e. trade picks and players to build around Rondo) or go full on rebuild (i.e. trade Rondo, Bass, Wallace, etc.).  I just don't see the point in making trades that confuse either take and make Boston an Atlanta/Charlotte level team without much hope to get out of that tier.  Just no point in that.

I'm interested in making the Celtics a Hawks/Bobcats level team with reasonable hope of improving the team, which they would have with one of the better stockpiles of picks.  I don't see the Celtics leapfrogging that stage by being able to add multiple HOF-caliber players this time around.  Imagine if Ainge had acquired Ray Allen, gotten the Celtics to a first-round exit, then added Garnett a year later without knowing that was possible when he acquired Allen.  If you want a "win now" strategy, you have to be flexible enough to see that as a process that will probably take until the summer of next year to gather the players you need next to Rondo.

[wdleehi]

Don't really like it. 



I don't see the star the Celtics are building around, but I do see enough that they could be in play for the 8th spot in the playoffs. 


Either a star comes to Boston though the draft and/or keep Rondo.

[PhoSita]

Don't really like it. 



I don't see the star the Celtics are building around, but I do see enough that they could be in play for the 8th spot in the playoffs. 


Either a star comes to Boston though the draft and/or keep Rondo.

Well, here's where I'm at --

I think there's a good chance a bona-fide star doesn't come in the draft or via trade, and Rondo leaves the Celtics next year in free agency if he's not traded first.

So what then?  Doesn't it make sense to maximize your value for Rondo and then just focus on putting your young pieces in the best position to succeed and hope one of them surprises, or a deal for a franchise player comes along?

[Evantime34]

I really like the Asik part of the deal. Not very excited about the Rondo for the the Lakers pick deal. To me if we are going to make an Asik deal which makes us better this year it doesn't make sense to jettison Rondo for a pick. I think you will see win now moves like Asik or future moves like dealing Rondo not both.

[slamtheking]

Don't really like it. 

I don't see the star the Celtics are building around, but I do see enough that they could be in play for the 8th spot in the playoffs. 

Either a star comes to Boston though the draft and/or keep Rondo.

Well, here's where I'm at --

I think there's a good chance a bona-fide star doesn't come in the draft or via trade, and Rondo leaves the Celtics next year in free agency if he's not traded first.

So what then?  Doesn't it make sense to maximize your value for Rondo and then just focus on putting your young pieces in the best position to succeed and hope one of them surprises, or a deal for a franchise player comes along?

Rondo leaving after next year is just pure speculation at this point.  Far more likely he stays than leaves. 

He's the team's centerpiece now and he likes that.  He knows Danny wants to build around him and he likes that as well.  Despite rampant rumors, danny only appears to have offered him up as part of a CP3 deal.  it's not like he's Ray Allen being constantly shopped.

His comment about liking the idea of being courted as a FA is no different from similar comments made by PP a few years ago. 

There may be no franchise players in this draft but there figures to be 1 very good player and 1 good player added via the draft.  if Danny pulls off the 3rd trade scenario with Houston and lands Asik, Lin and a pick, all the better. 

This team isn't going anywhere next year.  after next season is when I anticipate the real moves to be made to get back into a contender.

[LarBrd33]

Pho, you basically lost me when you said we'd be able to get Lin, Asik and the #25 for literally nothing. 

Not happening.

[PhoSita]

Pho, you basically lost me when you said we'd be able to get Lin, Asik and the #25 for literally nothing. 

Not happening.

Maybe you're right.  Perhaps Houston will look to get value in return for these guys.  I think it's going to be hard for them to do that without taking back significant salary for next year, though.  I doubt anybody is going to give Houston a pick for a year of Lin and / or Asik.

If Houston is really serious about freeing up cap room to sign Carmelo, I think they might be willing to give up a 1st in order to make it happen.  After all, like I said, Lin + Asik is a lot of salary for next season.