Author Topic: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo  (Read 22662 times)

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Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #30 on: April 20, 2014, 09:22:57 AM »

Offline saltlover

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I simply think the OP is unrealistic regarding Houston's ability to sign Melo outright.  They simply don't have the cap room to offer Melo his max.

Let's assume the cap is $63.2 million.

Currently Houston has the following amount in guaranteed salaries for next year (I'm including Chandler Parson because it makes no sense for them not to pick up his option).  I'll exclude Lin and Asik, because they're supposedly traded to get cap room. 

Dwight Howard - $21,436,271
James Harden - $14,728,844
Terrence Jones - $1,618,680
Donatas Motiejunas - $1,483,920
Chandler Parsons - $964,750
Isaiah Canaan - $816,482
Robert Covington - $150,000 (partially guaranteed that amount)

That totals to $41,198,947.  It's also only 6 players (since Covington is presumably waived). However, there are a couple more salaries to think about:

Francisco Garcia - $1,316,809 (player option)
Patrick Beverly - $915,243 (unguaranteed)

Garcia has a player option, and his accepting it is outside of their control.  To  be truthful, I don't know if he will or won't, but it's something that must be considered.  Beverley is non-guaranteed, but has been a big part of their team, and is not getting released in a world where Jeremy Lin is traded.

When you add the above two into the Rockets, they're now at $43,430,999, with 8 players.  Furthermore, they would have three cap hold at $507,336 each, bringing their salary and cap holds $44,953,007.  With a cap of $63.2 million, this leaves approximately $18.2 million in cap room for Melo.  Melo's max deal can pay him just shy of $22.5 million.  That's a gap they can't close very well.

Even if you suppose that they get rid of Beverly and Garcia wants out, that's still two more cap holds (for a total of five) of $507,336 added to the $41,198,947 number from earlier, bringing them to $43,735,627, which is better, but still restricts them from offering Melo more than $19.5 million, $3 million less than his max.

Now suppose instead that they trade off their entire roster except for Harden and Howard.  No more Parsons, Jones, Motiejunas -- they're all gone.  That leaves them with $36,165,115 committed to those two, plus 9 cap holds of $507,336, for a total of $40.731,139.  Assuming the cap is $63.2 million to the penny, this leaves them with $22,468,861 cap room, barely $10k more than Melo's max salary of $22,458,402.

It seems unfathomable to me that they would shed off their entire team for Melo, so I just don't see him being signed via cap room.

Of course, that doesn't mean Melo won't show up in Houston.  But doing so would require a sign-and-trade with New York.  Boston can certainly be part of that deal, but paying New York to play along is going to cost something, maybe something significant, and some of that cost may come from Boston.  It's not as simple as sending us Asik and Lin, and even another salary, to create room, unless Melo is willing to leave a lot on the table.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #31 on: April 20, 2014, 09:24:18 AM »

Offline celticsfan8591

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Isn't this not allowed though? We can't trade the exception in combination with other players and both asik and lin are making more than the exception next year.  The only way we could trade for either of them with the exception is if their salary for the purpose of the trade is their cap hit (possible but I don't know, does anyone have an idea?) Even if their "salary" is their cap hit, we'd run into the same problem as with our Clippers deal last year.  We'd have to convince the NBA that we weren't breaking a large deal into two smaller ones to circumvent league rules.  Which as we found out last year isn't easy to do.

Lin goes into the TE, and Asik for Bogans and non-guaranteed filler works per the CBA. There's no salary aggregation taking place.

Can you explain this further? I understand that the two separate deals are legal (assuming, as I said before, that Lin/Asik's "salary" is their cap hit).  What I thought was illegal is that these two deals are essentially components of a larger deal that was broken into two smaller ones in order to get around the restrictions on trading trade exceptions.  Isn't it illegal to do that?  I thought all transactions had to be independent of each other.  I think we'd have a tough time arguing these deals aren't related, because the purpose of this trade for the Rockets is to clear enough cap space for Melo and neither individual trade does that.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #32 on: April 20, 2014, 09:31:23 AM »

Offline jambr380

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Dang i dont get why some of you guys like Asik this much, he isnt even that good. He is okay defensively, but straight opposite when it comes to the offensive side of the game.
I hope Ainge is smarter than this, but i doubt it.. :-X

How many elite defensive anchors are available out there?  And further, how many are out there for the cost of just taking on a decent backup point guard's overpriced expiring contract?

If we pick up a first rounder, that's a bonus.

I agree that the deal makes a good bit of sense from a value perspective (player value, not contract value), I am just concerned that we've hyped up Asik to the point that he is the next Bill Russell. The word, 'elite', shouldn't be used lightly. His body of work is still somewhat limited to put him in that category.

I absolutely understand why we would do such a deal and why it would also benefit Houston, but I really need to see Asik flourish for more than one season before I agree that he is one of the top defensive big men in the game.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #33 on: April 20, 2014, 09:54:26 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Dang i dont get why some of you guys like Asik this much, he isnt even that good. He is okay defensively, but straight opposite when it comes to the offensive side of the game.
I hope Ainge is smarter than this, but i doubt it.. :-X

How many elite defensive anchors are available out there?  And further, how many are out there for the cost of just taking on a decent backup point guard's overpriced expiring contract?

If we pick up a first rounder, that's a bonus.

I agree that the deal makes a good bit of sense from a value perspective (player value, not contract value), I am just concerned that we've hyped up Asik to the point that he is the next Bill Russell. The word, 'elite', shouldn't be used lightly. His body of work is still somewhat limited to put him in that category.

I absolutely understand why we would do such a deal and why it would also benefit Houston, but I really need to see Asik flourish for more than one season before I agree that he is one of the top defensive big men in the game.

If that's what anti-Asikers are outraged about, people are saying he's relatively elite.

Fact is 7 footers are rare and rim protection is rare.

A top 10, maybe even top 5 rim protector at any era would be considered elite.

Asik doesn't have to be historically good. Asik might be one of the lesser rim protectors in the history of the NBA. But this one skill is a highly lacking skill on this team and incidentally an incredibly rare, valuable skill in the game itself.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #34 on: April 20, 2014, 10:24:33 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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original proposal is an almost to-good-to-be-true offer.  Picking up Asik and Lin for so little value.  carry Lin for just 1 more year and cut him loose when we're ready to make a move in free agency.  resign Asik and Rondo that offseason to reasonable deals.  Bass is off the books.  Green and Wallace become better trade assets as expiring deals.  C's have a developing Sully, KO, (probably AB too) and 3 firsts from this year's draft as well as a load of picks (including 2 next year).

that's a pretty nice position to be in for improving the team after next year.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #35 on: April 20, 2014, 10:30:20 AM »

Offline nacceltic

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I'm OK with this deal, if it can legally be pulled off...I do wonder if the NBA wouldn't just look at this as one large deal and not allow it...If so, then I'd be more than fine with the Asik part of the equation.  I've wanted Asik on this team for awhile now.

Actually happy that Ainge couldn't get a deal worked out before the deadline, because if Asik was on this team this year, they win at least 3-5 more games.  Not saying that he's the next Bill Russell, be we all know that rim protection/post defense was a gigantic issue and Asik is one of the best defensive big men in the game.

However, I agree with a prior post that we should wait on any deal involving Asik until draft night.  If we have a shot at Embiid, we take it and leave Asik alone.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #36 on: April 20, 2014, 10:44:14 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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In theory this is a great idea. The problem I have (as Ainge may also) is that we are spending more money in these back loaded deals which make up a hell of a lot of ticket sales.

The main two issues I have are that we are

1)getting a late first round pick which is nice but at the 24-28 range pretty meh given how many we have. That's it. Asik and Lin for a year while we gift wrap Melo.

2)by adding Lin we've essentially added a scoring wing who will be a Jordan Crawford replacement -only better. We'll also have a rim protector in Asik who will make a huge difference.
This team is too good to be bottom 5 and gain any decent draft pick of our own. We are also too poor to make it out of the first round.

Essentially all we are doing is hurting our 2015 lottery odds and paying the rockets salary of Lin+Asik for them in exchange for a pick in last 4-6 picks in the first round.

If we were to do this deal we'd need a hell of a lot more incentive. That team takes us from the worst team (or bottom 3), to a playoff team or fringe playoff team in no mans land with no benefit because Asik walks.

Lin is basically filler in this trade.  He's the Bogans, except his contract is guaranteed.

The Celtics look like a playoff team but they aren't stuck in "no man's land".  The team is well-positioned to either re-sign Rondo and Asik and use those draft picks to trade for a top player or else to let them walk and finish blowing things up.

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Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #37 on: April 20, 2014, 10:47:05 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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Isn't this not allowed though? We can't trade the exception in combination with other players and both asik and lin are making more than the exception next year.  The only way we could trade for either of them with the exception is if their salary for the purpose of the trade is their cap hit (possible but I don't know, does anyone have an idea?) Even if their "salary" is their cap hit, we'd run into the same problem as with our Clippers deal last year.  We'd have to convince the NBA that we weren't breaking a large deal into two smaller ones to circumvent league rules.  Which as we found out last year isn't easy to do.

Lin goes into the TE, and Asik for Bogans and non-guaranteed filler works per the CBA. There's no salary aggregation taking place.

Can you explain this further? I understand that the two separate deals are legal (assuming, as I said before, that Lin/Asik's "salary" is their cap hit).  What I thought was illegal is that these two deals are essentially components of a larger deal that was broken into two smaller ones in order to get around the restrictions on trading trade exceptions.  Isn't it illegal to do that?  I thought all transactions had to be independent of each other.  I think we'd have a tough time arguing these deals aren't related, because the purpose of this trade for the Rockets is to clear enough cap space for Melo and neither individual trade does that.

It's a legal deal.  You can structure the deal however you want.  Breaking a trade down into components is how the Celtics got a big trade exception while dealing Pierce/Garnett.  If you are thinking of the failed Clippers trade, that was because you can't include a coach as part of a larger deal and the Celtics couldn't show that was an independent transaction.
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Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #38 on: April 20, 2014, 11:13:50 AM »

Online Roy H.

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Dang i dont get why some of you guys like Asik this much, he isnt even that good. He is okay defensively, but straight opposite when it comes to the offensive side of the game.
I hope Ainge is smarter than this, but i doubt it.. :-X

How many elite defensive anchors are available out there?  And further, how many are out there for the cost of just taking on a decent backup point guard's overpriced expiring contract?

If we pick up a first rounder, that's a bonus.

I agree that the deal makes a good bit of sense from a value perspective (player value, not contract value), I am just concerned that we've hyped up Asik to the point that he is the next Bill Russell. The word, 'elite', shouldn't be used lightly. His body of work is still somewhat limited to put him in that category.

I absolutely understand why we would do such a deal and why it would also benefit Houston, but I really need to see Asik flourish for more than one season before I agree that he is one of the top defensive big men in the game.

If that's what anti-Asikers are outraged about, people are saying he's relatively elite.

Fact is 7 footers are rare and rim protection is rare.

A top 10, maybe even top 5 rim protector at any era would be considered elite.

Asik doesn't have to be historically good. Asik might be one of the lesser rim protectors in the history of the NBA. But this one skill is a highly lacking skill on this team and incidentally an incredibly rare, valuable skill in the game itself.

Yeah, I meant elite in the league today, not historically so.

You have Hibbert, Noah, and Marc Gasol.  Howard has fallen off, but he's on that tier.  Asik is right there. 


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Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #39 on: April 20, 2014, 11:32:37 AM »

Offline MBunge

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In theory this is a great idea. The problem I have (as Ainge may also) is that we are spending more money in these back loaded deals which make up a hell of a lot of ticket sales.

The main two issues I have are that we are

1)getting a late first round pick which is nice but at the 24-28 range pretty meh given how many we have. That's it. Asik and Lin for a year while we gift wrap Melo.

2)by adding Lin we've essentially added a scoring wing who will be a Jordan Crawford replacement -only better. We'll also have a rim protector in Asik who will make a huge difference.
This team is too good to be bottom 5 and gain any decent draft pick of our own. We are also too poor to make it out of the first round.

Essentially all we are doing is hurting our 2015 lottery odds and paying the rockets salary of Lin+Asik for them in exchange for a pick in last 4-6 picks in the first round.

If we were to do this deal we'd need a hell of a lot more incentive. That team takes us from the worst team (or bottom 3), to a playoff team or fringe playoff team in no mans land with no benefit because Asik walks.

I don't understand your concern about resigning Asik.  We need a center like him and if we don't spend assets on Asik, we'll have to spend them on someone else.  Resigning a player is also almost always more likely than getting a free agent.  And if Asik walks, the team will suck and get a higher draft pick.

If you think Asik isn't worth signing to a long term deal, that at least makes sense.

Mike

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #40 on: April 20, 2014, 11:39:43 AM »

Offline chambers

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In theory this is a great idea. The problem I have (as Ainge may also) is that we are spending more money in these back loaded deals which make up a hell of a lot of ticket sales.

The main two issues I have are that we are

1)getting a late first round pick which is nice but at the 24-28 range pretty meh given how many we have. That's it. Asik and Lin for a year while we gift wrap Melo.

2)by adding Lin we've essentially added a scoring wing who will be a Jordan Crawford replacement -only better. We'll also have a rim protector in Asik who will make a huge difference.
This team is too good to be bottom 5 and gain any decent draft pick of our own. We are also too poor to make it out of the first round.

Essentially all we are doing is hurting our 2015 lottery odds and paying the rockets salary of Lin+Asik for them in exchange for a pick in last 4-6 picks in the first round.

If we were to do this deal we'd need a hell of a lot more incentive. That team takes us from the worst team (or bottom 3), to a playoff team or fringe playoff team in no mans land with no benefit because Asik walks.

I don't understand your concern about resigning Asik.  We need a center like him and if we don't spend assets on Asik, we'll have to spend them on someone else.  Resigning a player is also almost always more likely than getting a free agent.  And if Asik walks, the team will suck and get a higher draft pick.

If you think Asik isn't worth signing to a long term deal, that at least makes sense.

Mike

I have no problem with Asik, I have a problem with him being able to walk at the end of the season.

The risk is that he plays for us for one season (as does Lin) and they get us an extra 10 wins, which in turn hurts our pick next season. Then, after hurting our pick's chances/worth and playing his butt off in a contract year, the Bobcats offer him 15 million x 4 years.
Do we match that?
So I'm scared that we end up with a worse first round pick and have taken on Asik and Lin without dumping Green or Bass's longer deals.
Doesn't make any sense. I'll also add that Marc Gasol and Love will be free agents that off season when Asik is...as is Rondo.

Doesn't seem like a good move in a rebuilding year...unless we go after Love or Aldridge and have a star in place.
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Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #41 on: April 20, 2014, 11:51:29 AM »

Offline Eddie20

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In theory this is a great idea. The problem I have (as Ainge may also) is that we are spending more money in these back loaded deals which make up a hell of a lot of ticket sales.

The main two issues I have are that we are

1)getting a late first round pick which is nice but at the 24-28 range pretty meh given how many we have. That's it. Asik and Lin for a year while we gift wrap Melo.

2)by adding Lin we've essentially added a scoring wing who will be a Jordan Crawford replacement -only better. We'll also have a rim protector in Asik who will make a huge difference.
This team is too good to be bottom 5 and gain any decent draft pick of our own. We are also too poor to make it out of the first round.

Essentially all we are doing is hurting our 2015 lottery odds and paying the rockets salary of Lin+Asik for them in exchange for a pick in last 4-6 picks in the first round.

If we were to do this deal we'd need a hell of a lot more incentive. That team takes us from the worst team (or bottom 3), to a playoff team or fringe playoff team in no mans land with no benefit because Asik walks.

I don't understand your concern about resigning Asik.  We need a center like him and if we don't spend assets on Asik, we'll have to spend them on someone else.  Resigning a player is also almost always more likely than getting a free agent.  And if Asik walks, the team will suck and get a higher draft pick.

If you think Asik isn't worth signing to a long term deal, that at least makes sense.

Mike

I have no problem with Asik, I have a problem with him being able to walk at the end of the season.

The risk is that he plays for us for one season (as does Lin) and they get us an extra 10 wins, which in turn hurts our pick next season. Then, after hurting our pick's chances/worth and playing his butt off in a contract year, the Bobcats offer him 15 million x 4 years.
Do we match that?
So I'm scared that we end up with a worse first round pick and have taken on Asik and Lin without dumping Green or Bass's longer deals.
Doesn't make any sense. I'll also add that Marc Gasol and Love will be free agents that off season when Asik is...as is Rondo.

Doesn't seem like a good move in a rebuilding year...unless we go after Love or Aldridge and have a star in place.

Your points are valid and I do agree with them. However, having a legitimate center does allow Sully and KO to play their natural 4 spots much more often. So while the trade does hurt our draft position next year, it does so while allowing our young bigs to potentially blossom.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #42 on: April 20, 2014, 11:54:04 AM »

Offline jambr380

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In theory this is a great idea. The problem I have (as Ainge may also) is that we are spending more money in these back loaded deals which make up a hell of a lot of ticket sales.

The main two issues I have are that we are

1)getting a late first round pick which is nice but at the 24-28 range pretty meh given how many we have. That's it. Asik and Lin for a year while we gift wrap Melo.

2)by adding Lin we've essentially added a scoring wing who will be a Jordan Crawford replacement -only better. We'll also have a rim protector in Asik who will make a huge difference.
This team is too good to be bottom 5 and gain any decent draft pick of our own. We are also too poor to make it out of the first round.

Essentially all we are doing is hurting our 2015 lottery odds and paying the rockets salary of Lin+Asik for them in exchange for a pick in last 4-6 picks in the first round.

If we were to do this deal we'd need a hell of a lot more incentive. That team takes us from the worst team (or bottom 3), to a playoff team or fringe playoff team in no mans land with no benefit because Asik walks.

I don't understand your concern about resigning Asik.  We need a center like him and if we don't spend assets on Asik, we'll have to spend them on someone else.  Resigning a player is also almost always more likely than getting a free agent.  And if Asik walks, the team will suck and get a higher draft pick.

If you think Asik isn't worth signing to a long term deal, that at least makes sense.

Mike

I have no problem with Asik, I have a problem with him being able to walk at the end of the season.

The risk is that he plays for us for one season (as does Lin) and they get us an extra 10 wins, which in turn hurts our pick next season. Then, after hurting our pick's chances/worth and playing his butt off in a contract year, the Bobcats offer him 15 million x 4 years.
Do we match that?
So I'm scared that we end up with a worse first round pick and have taken on Asik and Lin without dumping Green or Bass's longer deals.
Doesn't make any sense. I'll also add that Marc Gasol and Love will be free agents that off season when Asik is...as is Rondo.

Doesn't seem like a good move in a rebuilding year...unless we go after Love or Aldridge and have a star in place.

You have a totally legitimate concern. The fact is, if we did a deal like this bringing in at least Asik, I would VERY much hope that Danny has another plan in place to bring in a top tier wing player so we can compete right away. Who is exactly is that wing player? I guess that's another topic for another day.

Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #43 on: April 20, 2014, 12:17:35 PM »

Offline chambers

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In theory this is a great idea. The problem I have (as Ainge may also) is that we are spending more money in these back loaded deals which make up a hell of a lot of ticket sales.

The main two issues I have are that we are

1)getting a late first round pick which is nice but at the 24-28 range pretty meh given how many we have. That's it. Asik and Lin for a year while we gift wrap Melo.

2)by adding Lin we've essentially added a scoring wing who will be a Jordan Crawford replacement -only better. We'll also have a rim protector in Asik who will make a huge difference.
This team is too good to be bottom 5 and gain any decent draft pick of our own. We are also too poor to make it out of the first round.

Essentially all we are doing is hurting our 2015 lottery odds and paying the rockets salary of Lin+Asik for them in exchange for a pick in last 4-6 picks in the first round.

If we were to do this deal we'd need a hell of a lot more incentive. That team takes us from the worst team (or bottom 3), to a playoff team or fringe playoff team in no mans land with no benefit because Asik walks.

Lin is basically filler in this trade.  He's the Bogans, except his contract is guaranteed.

The Celtics look like a playoff team but they aren't stuck in "no man's land". The team is well-positioned to either re-sign Rondo and Asik and use those draft picks to trade for a top player or else to let them walk and finish blowing things up.

I'm not sure we need to make these moves to get Asik though. Just wait a season and let Houston pay his big final year bill. If he walks and we finish 'blowing things up' then we've wasted a crucial season of another possible top 5 pick.
Bring him in the offseason with the other free agents if we can afford it.
Adding Lin and Asik turns us into a 35ish win team? Maybe a first round exit and then they can walk to the highest bidder.

Danny Ainge doesn't operate like this. He's goes in guns blazing or he retreats to the strategy HQ- he doesn't muddle around in between.
Other than Eddie's points about Sully and KO being able to play their natural position there doesn't seem to be enough incentive to do this for just a late first round pick when the potential lottery pick we'd gain is worth squillions more. To continue on Eddie's point, we can still draft a center of our own or trade one of our 20 picks for a center we like this season if we need to move up a few spots from 18 and want Sully and KO to play their natural games.

The aim is to get a top 20 player here first. Fry a big fish, and then get guys like Asik. Move Jeff Green to get Asik if we need that elite rim protector. Give up a late first rounder of our own ie the Clippers pick if we have to.
 
I can't see any situation where an expiring Asik comes here with an expiring Lin as a filler in a rebuilding project- unless there is far more incentive than a lone late first rounder.
Just my opinion.

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Re: How Boston Can Help Houston Land Melo
« Reply #44 on: April 20, 2014, 12:26:14 PM »

Online Roy H.

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I'm not sure we need to make these moves to get Asik though. Just wait a season and let Houston pay his big final year bill. If he walks and we finish 'blowing things up' then we've wasted a crucial season of another possible top 5 pick.
Bring him in the offseason with the other free agents if we can afford it.
Adding Lin and Asik turns us into a 35ish win team? Maybe a first round exit and then they can walk to the highest bidder.

Danny Ainge doesn't operate like this. He's goes in guns blazing or he retreats to the strategy HQ- he doesn't muddle around in between.
Other than Eddie's points about Sully and KO being able to play their natural position there doesn't seem to be enough incentive to do this for just a late first round pick when the potential lottery pick we'd gain is worth squillions more. To continue on Eddie's point, we can still draft a center of our own or trade one of our 20 picks for a center we like this season if we need to move up a few spots from 18 and want Sully and KO to play their natural games.

The aim is to get a top 20 player here first. Fry a big fish, and then get guys like Asik. Move Jeff Green to get Asik if we need that elite rim protector. Give up a late first rounder of our own ie the Clippers pick if we have to.
 
I can't see any situation where an expiring Asik comes here with an expiring Lin as a filler in a rebuilding project- unless there is far more incentive than a lone late first rounder.
Just my opinion.

I understand your point of view, but I think you may go too far when you attribute this philosophy not only to yourself, but also to Danny.

How does this explain the fact (or, at least, strongly-sourced rumor) that Danny had interest in acquiring Asik last year, and would have surrendered trade assets to do so?


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