Not that any pick is safe.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1937609-why-noah-vonleh-is-safer-2014-nba-draft-prospect-than-julius-randle
I think his 7'4" wingspan, will make him a better defender than Sully.
I don't think he is elite by any stretch nor do I think Sully is elite. Both have potential to be nice good players but no great ones.
Randle is the type of player who has a low ceiling, high floor, and stays in the league for a decade as a 3rd big for a contender. Kind of like Brandon Bass. I wouldn't take Brandon Bass 5th overall and neither should Boston. Vonleh has a much higher ceiling. You have to gamble on potential.
Not a bad comparison . I thought of Bass too, but I think Randle will be better at everything , especially handling the ball down low . I believe he may have a ceiling of Milsap possibly . He is so young and two years in the NBA could be huge development time for his overall game.
I agree though with the thought that to GET. Better , like anything you have to take some risks . Randle is too big , strong , quick and young not to succeed . But the ceiling maybe low because of IQ or the Bass syndrome . He won't be a Fab Melo bust or JJJ , But Randle might disappoint if Gordon, Vonieh , Smart become all stars .
I d rather keep Rondo than chance Smart . , and rather dump Bass and take Randle ....which might free up a trade of Sully or Randle to get an elite talent or center
I think......if I was gambling with a pick ....it would be Exum . Some GM is going to look like a genius or a bum . With all the good players that could also have been taken.
The number four pick could be the HiGh Risk -High REWARD selection of the draft.
I still hope Embiid falls a few spots ....I wouldn't hesitate .....