Per 36:
Sully: 17.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks, .427/.269/.778
Oly: 15.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, .466/.351/.811
Oly gets benefit of the doubt, because it was his rookie season.
I think what people got excited about was Oly's stats the final 2 months:
March: 20.6 minutes 9.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.7 steals .515/.458/.833
April: 25.8 minutes, 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.3 steals .547/.429/.800
Kelly is clearly a vastly superior offensive player. His shooting percentages over the past two months were ELITE.
His final 3 games, he got the start and a boost in minutes... and didn't see a decline in his efficiency. Granted, end-of-season play has to be taken with a MASSIVE grain of salt... but those final 3 games showed hockey-stick shaped spikes on Oly's growth chart.
Game 1: 39 mins 25 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists .478/.400/.1000
Game 2: 35 mins 28 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists .526/.667/.857
Game 3 ... 30 mins 24 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists .625/.000/.800
On the flip side, Sully's shooting percentages show a rather pedestrian offensive player... and he lacks the size to be much of an impact defensively.
It will be entertaining seeing which of these 2 guys ends up having a future as a starter in this league. Oly is 23. Sully is 22. I'm not sure which has a higher ceiling. Neither probably has star potential. Both are probably trade chips.
I agree with you 100%.
Sully is a very skilled player, but the thing that I think will hold him back from ever becoming a star player is that he doesn't really have an elite skill ay his position.
Low Post ScoringHe's skilled and capable, but his lack of size and athleticism causes him to struggle against length to the point where you can't depend on him to score in the post on a nightly basis.
Midrange JumpshotSully has a decent midrange jumper, but he's certainly no KG or Brandon Bass. His shot is not yet consistent enough to the point where you can really depend on him to take that last, game winning shot.
Three Point shootingSully has shown he is capable of making the three, but he's certainly not good at it by any stretch of the imagination. Until he can reach the level where he can hit three's at a rate of at least 33% or so, his outside shot is pretty much a liability.
Perimeter DefenseSully lacks the pure footspeed to be an above average perimeter defender. He's a solid positional defender (in that he takes quite a few charges, etc) but lacks the lateral quickness to play good 1-on-1 defense on the perimeter.
Post DefenseSully is a solid post defender in 1-on-1 situations because he uses his weight well to bump and grind and make life difficult for opposings bigs. That said, he doesn't have superior length or vertical leap and that causes him to struggle defensively against long / tall bigs.
PassingSully is a good passer for a big man, no doubt about it. He has good visions and awareness and usually knows where his teammates are all the time. Still though, he's only averaged 1.9 assists per 36 minutes over the first two seasons of his career. Great big man passers like Demarcus Cousins, Josh Smith and Pau Gasol have all averaged around 3 assist per 36 minutes over the course of their careers. Kevin Garnett (a truly elite passing big man) has averaged 4 assists per 36 over his career. Sully is an above average passer for a big, but he has a long ways to go before you could label him 'elite'.
Rebounding Sullinger's greatest talent is probably his rebounding ability and eye for the ball. Even in this regard, he is 'very good' rather than 'elite'. Sullinger has averaged 7.3 rebounds per game and 10.6 rebounds per 36 minutes over his first two seasons. Those are nice numbers, but it's no match for the PER36 numbers put up by the truly elite rebounders out there like Kevin Love (13.5), Andre Drummond (14.2), Dwight Howard (12.9), Omer Asik (13.3). Or even just the 'great' rebounders like Demarcus Cousins (12.1) and Deandre Jordan (11.6). Finding guys who put up 10 rebounds per 36 is really not that rare in this league - even Olynyk (who was not expected to be a good rebounder) is not far off that at around 9.5 RP36.
So unfortunately this lack of an 'elite' skill/talent is I think what will hold Sully back from ever becoming any more than just a really nice starter. He really is a 'jack of all trades' player who does a little bit of a lot of different things, rather than a star who really dominates the game in any one way...and due to his mediocre physical abilities, he has limited ability to improve beyond that.
Sully just finished his second year and lets be honest - he's shown few (if any) obvious improvements over his rookie year. Hasn't really developed any new skills, and aside from his pure scoring output (17 PP36 vs 10 PP36) his other per minute stats have been absolutely identical. Even when it comes to those PPG numbers it's debatable of how much oft that is actually good, given that his FG% has dropped just as dramatically as his scoring has increased (49.3% down to 42.7%).
Looking at Olynyk, he had limited playing time over the majority of the season, an being a rookie took some time to adjust to the pro game. So yes, it took him a little while to really flash his potential. In the last two months of the season however his shooting (53% FG, 44% 3PT, 82% FT) has been elite and he's put up outstanding scoring numbers (19.5 PTS PER36) over that stretch. His passing for a big man (2.8 assists per 36 minutes) has been elite all season long.
While Olynyk certainly has some weaknesses (defense needs work, needs to add bulk) it's also important to note that this is his still his rookie season, so nobody knows how much he might potentially improve next season after a season of experience under his belt.
Right now though, IMHO, Olynyk has shown far greater star potential because he has shown flashes of an elite offensive skill set (three point game, midrange game, post game, ability to put it on the floor, elite passing skills) and has done so over a pretty significant stretch of time. He also has greater physical potential I think. At the PF spot his 7-foot frame gives him the ability to shoot straight over opponents, and at the center spot his mobility and ball handling ability would allow him to blow right past past most opponents. All he really needs to do is add a bit of muscle to make him self an absolute matchup nightmare.
Despite that potential he isn't really significantly worse than Sully on the boards (9.5 rebounds per 36) or on defense.
Everyone kinda loves Sully and sleeps on Olynyk, but I think Kelly has a far greater potential to one day become a star...while Sully's ceiling to me is just a really good complementary starter.