Kelly Olynyk is "legit," Jared Sullinger is legit-er

[TheFlex]

First I'll say: I love Kelly Olynyk's progress this year. I'm admittedly pro-tank, but no one enjoyed Kelly Olynyk's (average) 18-25 minutes of much deserved play over the past month or so than I (and no one was more disappointed when he was snatched from each game by Stevens to keep the tank going). Whether you think Olynyk or Sullinger is better, it's clear that the two of them are special offensive talents and we're lucky enough to say that the two of them are so smart and so dedicated that they can be taught good team defense.

That being said, I feel like CelticsBloggers have gotten caught up in Klynyk's end of season tear. No doubt it's been impressive and satisfying to see Klynyk finally break out. But I think we have to remind ourselves that these past five games in which he's averaged about 19/8 have been the norm for large periods of Sullinger's season. Jared averaged 18/8 over the entire (half-) month of April as well. When teams were actually trying against the Cs back in February, Sullinger dominated the field and posted 15/11 over that month-long span.

Sullinger also fell victim to the tank. As the team's best player for half the season and its second best player for the other half, Sullinger averaged 30 minutes a game over monthly splits just twice. In fact, Stevens used him as a bench player in the second half of the season. Imagine if he was showcased as he should have been (if not for the tank, which I support... I know, us tankers want to have our cake and eat it too)? Sullinger could have made a strong push for the All-Star team this season a la Lance Stephenson.

Most importantly, Olynyk is 11 months older than Jared Sullinger. Next year, Sullinger will start the season as a 22-year old, only one month older than October 2K13-Kelly Olynyk. That's very important. It's why Adreian Payne isn't a lottery pick. It means that next year, with an improved supporting cast, playing with less weight (by design), playing at his natural position, playing without the persistent injuries that nagged him all season, and playing under a coach that has a refocused approach to winning (how's that for a good PR quote?), Jared Sullinger will make a push for the All-Star team at the same age as rookie Kelly Olynyk.

Thoughts? Who is better, Sully or Klynyk? Will we eventually have to trade one of the two? What could either of the two fetch in return as individuals? As part of a package deal?

[celticmania]

Agree with everything u said. I think Sullinger is better. He is so good and has a certain toughness and confidence about him

[D.o.s.]

I don't think Sullinger is going to make a significant push for the All-Star Game next year.

It would be awesome if he did, but I doubt it.

[McHales Pits]

I don't think Sullinger's minutes were restricted for tanking reasons, I think they were limited for conditioning reasons. For him to take a leap next season, he needs to commit the offseason to getting himself in better shape.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I think both are legit.

Sullinger showed he can hang with the men. And KO in his first year looked decent.

Also I think both are legit, as trade assets.

I think Sullinger has a future and Kelly can be at worst, a 4th big off the bench and has the potential to be a starter giving you 12 points, 5 rebounds a game.

But I believe this is the time to sell them, and sell them hard. It will be great if they are part of our core moving forward. It will also be great if we can flip them into something. An All Star caliber player or a defensive Center who we sorely need (and maybe a lot of NBA teams do as well).

[sofutomygaha]

Ed; oops, wrong thread, sorry

[Vox_Populi]

Yeah, Sully's coming off a pretty impressive season. Among sophomores he was 6th in EFF, 7th in PER, 12th in WS/48, 5th in TRB%, and he averaged 17/11 per36. All while being played out of position the entire year. Even as a false center he was good enough to finish in the top 20 among all centers in both Wins Above Replacement and Real-Plus Minus. He's genuinely looking like he'll be an All-Star sooner rather than later.

He's clearly a better player than Olynyk. I don't see that changing.

[lon3lytoaster]

I like them both. They're both good. But I'm in the Kelly camp, though. I value how much more efficient he is. He rebounded at a pretty darn similar rate, as well. They're both poor defensively overall. Sullinger may get the nod as a post defender.

I have some concerns about Sullinger's attitude, too. I don't think he's a bad kid at all but he doesn't know how to keep in shape it seems and often has some disappointing body language. I could see him being a bit of a whiney character. Not that it's the end of the world if he's that, but a bit frustrating. Really needs to stop shooting the three though. Just stop.

The game had been slown down for Kelly over the last month, month and a half of the season. He stopped hesitating and just made moves. I think it's realistic to expect that trend continues into next year. If it does, as I expect and Sullinger doesn't make some pretty serious improvements, I think Kelly could eclipse him in the near future.

[LarBrd33]

Per 36:

Sully: 17.3 points, 10.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.9 blocks, .427/.269/.778   
Oly:   15.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.9 steals, 0.7 blocks, .466/.351/.811

Oly gets benefit of the doubt, because it was his rookie season.

I think what people got excited about was Oly's stats the final 2 months:

March:  20.6 minutes 9.6 points, 5.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.3 blocks, 0.7 steals .515/.458/.833     
April:  25.8 minutes, 16.6 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.4 blocks, 0.3 steals .547/.429/.800

Kelly is clearly a vastly superior offensive player.  His shooting percentages over the past two months were ELITE.

His final 3 games, he got the start and a boost in minutes... and didn't see a decline in his efficiency.  Granted, end-of-season play has to be taken with a MASSIVE grain of salt... but those final 3 games showed hockey-stick shaped spikes on Oly's growth chart.

Game 1:  39 mins 25 points, 12 rebounds, 3 assists  .478/.400/.1000   
Game 2:  35 mins 28 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists .526/.667/.857 
Game 3 ... 30 mins 24 points, 7 rebounds, 5 assists .625/.000/.800

On the flip side, Sully's shooting percentages show a rather pedestrian offensive player... and he lacks the size to be much of an impact defensively. 

It will be entertaining seeing which of these 2 guys ends up having a future as a starter in this league.   Oly is 23.  Sully is 22.  I'm not sure which has a higher ceiling.  Neither probably has star potential.  Both are probably trade chips.

[fairweatherfan]

Begun, the Oly/Sully War has.

...I like both of them and think we're fortunate to have two strong big man prospects on the team.  I lean toward Olynyk, partly due to his better size, shooting touch, and passing, and comparable rebounding.  But the big tiebreaker for me is that Sully seems to be a larger injury risk so far.  There's still a good chance Sully's back catches up with him and seriously impairs his career.  Olynyk doesn't seem to have the same kinds of issues, and his game seems less likely to wear him down over the years.  If we have to move one, I'd look to find a taker for Sully and avoid the risk of a physical breakdown.

[GreenWarrior]

I like 'em both but I still can't stand sully's size at C or PF though. I think we'll only go so far with him even if played PF the rest of his career(which is where he should be playing, no matter the reason).

[vjcsmoke]

I don't think Sullinger's minutes were restricted for tanking reasons, I think they were limited for conditioning reasons. For him to take a leap next season, he needs to commit the offseason to getting himself in better shape.

<-- THIS

Sullinger needs to lose weight, sculpt his body, and get in really good shape to withstand the rigors of a full 82 game pro season.  College basketball is nothing like the Pros in that regard.  It's almost a marathon season.

There's no reason to burn out Sullinger when there are capable veteran players like Bass and Hump to split the minutes.

I appreciate your optimism in regards to Sullinger but I would be happy with 15/10 from him next season but not quite sure he can pull that off.  Olynyk has the edge offensively due to the fact he can hit the deep shots and once he is in a rhythm he can easily go off for 20 points, 5 assists, 7 rebounds in a game as we saw in April.

[Celtics18]

I like both those guys--I like Kelly better--but I do like both of those guys.  I wouldn't mind seeing them both as members of the 2014-2015 Celtics.

What I really don't want to see, though, is another season without a center who can alter and block shots at the rim, gobble up defensive rebounds, and have a legitimate chance at banging down low with other centers around the league.

I feel that going into another season like that would be unfair to both Sully and Klynyk.  It wouldn't be good for their development to have to continue to be the rim protectors on this team. 

If Danny can get them the interior help, they desperately need without sacrificing either of them, I'm all in.

If he has to sacrifice one of them to get that help, I'd rather it be Sully than Kelly. 

[TheFlex]

I'll respond with general points because I've seen a lot of stuff I've disagreed with. Keeping it short and sweet though:

- Important to note that Sullinger didn't have any chance to really put in work on his game last offseason. After his back surgery did we really expect him to come into training camp in tip top shape? I'll withhold my judgments on his weight/body shape until he has that offseason and Danny/Brad tell him that he'll be able to spend the majority of his minutes at PF in 2014-15.

- Responding to LarBird33's comments about Sullinger's poor shooting position: Again, playing out of position, playing with limited preparation heading into the season, playing with extra weight (without being able to help it; again, back surgery!) will do that to your shot.

- For concerns about injury: I sound like a broken record, but extra weight and playing out of position can have that effect on a player, especially if he's playing up (PF====>C vs. PF====>SF).

- For future concerns about size/body shape: NBA scouts have moved away from judging big men on height, heavily weighing figures such as wingspan and standing reach. Yes, you could argue that Sullinger is undersized by a measly inch at PF (6'10" is ideal for PF; was Perk undersized by an inch or two at center? Cs fans seemed to love him), but two years ago, his wingspan was 7'1.25" and his standing reach was 8'9.5". Those numbers are better than Blake Griffin's draft measurements. By comparison, Kelly's wingspan at draft workouts last year was 6'9.75" and his standing reach was 9'0". How much more does Kelly's size really bother offensive assignments than Sully's size? I doubt it's as some as many here seem to think. We certainly know that Kelly isn't the rebounder Sullinger is, either.

[LarBrd33]

I'll respond with general points because I've seen a lot of stuff I've disagreed with. Keeping it short and sweet though:

- Important to note that Sullinger didn't have any chance to really put in work on his game last offseason. After his back surgery did we really expect him to come into training camp in tip top shape? I'll withhold my judgments on his weight/body shape until he has that offseason and Danny/Brad tell him that he'll be able to spend the majority of his minutes at PF in 2014-15.

- Responding to LarBird33's comments about Sullinger's poor shooting position: Again, playing out of position, playing with limited preparation heading into the season, playing with extra weight (without being able to help it; again, back surgery!) will do that to your shot.

- For concerns about injury: I sound like a broken record, but extra weight and playing out of position can have that effect on a player, especially if he's playing up (PF====>C vs. PF====>SF).

- For future concerns about size/body shape: NBA scouts have moved away from judging big men on height, heavily weighing figures such as wingspan and standing reach. Yes, you could argue that Sullinger is undersized by a measly inch at PF (6'10" is ideal for PF; was Perk undersized by an inch or two at center? Cs fans seemed to love him), but two years ago, his wingspan was 7'1.25" and his standing reach was 8'9.5". Those numbers are better than Blake Griffin's draft measurements. By comparison, Kelly's wingspan at draft workouts last year was 6'9.75" and his standing reach was 9'0". How much more does Kelly's size really bother offensive assignments than Sully's size? I doubt it's as some as many here seem to think. We certainly know that Kelly isn't the rebounder Sullinger is, either.

Per-36 numbers seem to suggest that Sully and Oly are about even rebounders.

Kelly seems to be significantly better offensively.  Better finisher.  More range on his shot.  Better ball-handler.  More moves.

Neither is an impact defender.