Poll

Whichwing do you take at #18I

Stauskus
10 (22.7%)
Hood
3 (6.8%)
Harris
1 (2.3%)
McDermott
12 (27.3%)
TJ Warren
8 (18.2%)
James Young
8 (18.2%)
Early
2 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 43

Author Topic: Which wing do you draft at #18?  (Read 12010 times)

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Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #15 on: April 18, 2014, 08:25:55 AM »

Offline cltc5

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If we get a top 3 and Embid is there, take Embid and TJ Warren.  Otherwise, Gordon and TJ warren.  Both guys have motors and are interchangeable at the 3, so you can bench one and play the other or play them both.  Our center needs, I believe will get addressed via trade or next draft.

Stuaskas and mcdermot are both Jimmer Fredette.  Hood is another Jeff Green..pedestrian.  Early is decent and I'd need to check out, Anderson..NO!  So Warren for sure.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2014, 08:32:05 AM by cltc5 »

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #16 on: April 18, 2014, 08:49:52 AM »

Offline JBcat

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If we get a top 3 and Embid is there, take Embid and TJ Warren.  Otherwise, Gordon and TJ warren.  Both guys have motors and are interchangeable at the 3, so you can bench one and play the other or play them both.  Our center needs, I believe will get addressed via trade or next draft.

Stuaskas and mcdermot are both Jimmer Fredette.  Hood is another Jeff Green..pedestrian.  Early is decent and I'd need to check out, Anderson..NO!  So Warren for sure.

How is Stuaskas and McDermott both Fredette.  Stauskas reminds me a little of Danny Ainge actually.  A very feisty player.  I would be happy if he slipped to us with the second pick.  McDermott is 3/4 so I don't see the comparison there. 

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #17 on: April 18, 2014, 09:13:54 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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always go for upside
said the agents of Kedrick Brown, Gabe Pruitt, JJJ, Marshon Brooks, Fab Melo, Gerald Green and JR Giddens
 ::)



Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #18 on: April 18, 2014, 09:14:00 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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need an option for BPA or Depends on result of first pick in the poll

Personally, I wouldn't be opposed to any of those players but think Hairston would be another viable option at that pick.  he's just as likely to slide as some of the others listed.

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #19 on: April 18, 2014, 09:21:39 AM »

Offline sofutomygaha

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I'm against using any kind of draft pick on a shooting specialist- being a sniper is just too different in the NBA and there are too many vets available year to year who will do the job better than a rookie. I'd rather draft rooks who will bring energy, size, athleticism, and/or well-rounded games.

18 is too low for McDermott, though. If he was available we'd have to take him.

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #20 on: April 18, 2014, 09:54:06 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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I know all these guys will probably not be on the board at # 17 or 18, but who do you choose if you have a choice of any of these guys .  What order do you put them in ?

Looks like we can land one of them

My order.....

1) Hood
2) Stauskus
3) TJ Warren
4) Harris
5) McDermott
6) Young
7) Early


I rank that group

1. McDermott
2. Harris
3. Stauskas
4. Hood
5. Warren
6. Young
big gap then
7. Early

Early is an interesting late first early 2nd round option but is not worth a mid first.

I think Mcdermott, Harris and Stauskas will be gone but there is a chance Hood is still available and he would be a great pick at #18.
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Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #21 on: April 18, 2014, 11:36:58 PM »

Offline chambers

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The 17th pick is where Ainge should be able to make a real sleeper/value pick over other GM's.

who does he take?....I think it depends on how he views the pick...it's either a Fab Melo/Tony Allen 'swing for the fences' kinda pick (with a much larger reward than Fab or Allen potentially provide), or a safer calculated move that he's narrowed down between 3-6 players in any given draft range that he can grow into an NBA starter one day.

Assuming we get one of the top 3 picks (being very lucky to do so), I'd put my money on how Danny usually picks (in my eyes at least) with a combination of ceiling and win shares for a solid potential NBA starter in the mid first round. ie, less risk and more bread and butter.

He got his bread and butter from Sully and struck out with Fab Melo. Kelly Olynyk was bread and butter, as were Pressey and Iverson all in the same draft.

He'll base it on win shares at their position.

I'd say he takes a long hard look at at Ennis or Napier as a genuine PG, and Cleanthony Early as a wing being a poor man's Jeff Green. If McDermott is still around (unlikely) then he 100% takes him. Just look at the top 10 win shares guys at their position and it will likely be one of them. Internationals won't be in that list and neither will Hairston who may be a consideration.

I'm pretty sure if you looked back at who Ainge brought in for draft workouts, almost all of them would have had an impact on winshares that was extremely high. We heard he loved Oladipo, Stephen Adams, and brought in Larkin, Crabbee, DeShaun Thomas, Cody Zeller for workouts with Olynyk (just a few off the top of my head).

Wages of wins is great at explaining this stuff. Written part of article is quoted below.

http://wagesofwins.com/2013/05/28/ranking-the-top-11-ncaa-prospects-at-each-position/


Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga, Junior

Adjusted Win Shares per 40 mins: 61.4%

#1 overall power forward for NCAA win shares


Phil Pressey, Missouri, Junior

Adjusted Win Shares per 40 mins: 31.7%

#11 overall Point Guards for NCAA win shares


Colton Iverson, Colorado State, Senior

Adjusted Win Shares per 40 mins: 52.5%

#7 overall Centers for NCAA win shares


Quote
Now that the NBA Draft Lottery is over, we know where each team will pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. That means that now is the perfect time to get in some quick analysis of the top draft prospects (before Yogi and Booboo make an appearance). On Thursday, I used NCAA Wins Produced to determine how productive the top 25 NCAA draft prospects were in this past college season. Today I’ll be looking at the top 11 prospects at each position (so I am looking at 30 more players than I did last time).

Earlier this year we unveiled Wins Produced numbers for college basketball players. This model works for college just like it does for the NBA. Now, keep in mind that college performance does not predict NBA performance perfectly; this list should only be seen as information about how a player performed in college last year. Just because a player played well (or not well) in college last season does not mean he will play well (or not well) in the NBA. But players who are productive in college have a somewhat better chance of being productive in the NBA (relative to those who are not productive in college).

When analyzing the table below, please also note the following:

The numbers I’ve used below do not include games played in this year’s NCAA tournament. We will update this analysis in the future.
Pay attention to our position assignment. This may not be the position the player will play in the NBA. And as these positions were assigned by an automated process (developed by Arturo Galletti), it also may not have been the position played in college. Position averages for ADJP40 are provided if you wish to calculate WP40 at different positions.
The top 11 NCAA prospects at each position comes from Jeff Goodman of CBS Sports. Goodman’s list was last updated on April 29th, which means that these rankings were tabulated before the NBA Draft Combine. As a side note (and this is part of some current research I am working on), it should be noted that the measurements taken at the combine do not appear to be related to future NBA performance or where a player is taken in the draft. In other words, the combine is probably meaningless.
There is no statistical relationship between the CBS Rankings and the ADJP40 rankings. In other words, how productive a player was in the NCAA last year — as measured by the Wins Produced model — is not correlated with the CBS prospect ranking.  Given how players are evaluated by the NBA in the draft (and this is also part of current research), this isn’t really surprising (and more will be said on this later).
With that in mind, the tables below take Goodman’s top 11 NCAA players at each position (the list stops at 11 because Goodman only had 11 small forwards) and rank them by ADJP40. That means that this list does not necessarily include the top NCAA players in terms of wins, WP40, or ADJP40; I’m simply re-ranking CBS Sports’ top NCAA prospects by their raw productivity (which is their productivity before the positional adjustment). Each player is grouped according to the position used by Goodman in his rankings. Players who were below average (below average for an NCAA player — not for a player drafted out of the NCAA) for their grouped position are indicated in red.
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Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #22 on: April 18, 2014, 11:48:33 PM »

Offline Yoki_IsTheName

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In order of availability

Doug McDermott

- I'm sold on Dougie McBuckets. If his worst case scenario is Kyle Korver, which I doubt, then he's great value at #18. A wing that can shoot lights out. If his college game translates in the NBA, and learns to play team defense to hide his lack of athleticism, we got ourselves a gold treat.

James Young

- he struggled in during the season but showed his promise in the Tournament. If we can develop his already solid jumper to a great one, he could be a treat. I still think his offensive fluidity is something not a lot can say for themselves.

Cleanthony Early

- I love a guy who plays with energy. He has the tools to become a great defender. He could be our 3 - D guy.

Jusuf Nurkic

- Not a wing, but if he's available at #18 and we don't pick him, I will eat a really overcooked hamburger out of dismay.


2019 CStrong Historical Draft 2000s OKC Thunder.
PG: Jrue Holiday / Isaiah Thomas / Larry Hughes
SG: Paul George / Aaron McKie / Bradley Beal
SF: Paul Pierce / Tayshaun Prince / Brian Scalabrine
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge / Shareef Abdur-Raheem / Ben Simmons
C: Jermaine O'neal / Ben Wallace

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #23 on: April 19, 2014, 12:01:31 AM »

Offline freshinthehouse

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Funny how little love Harris is getting.  If you would've asked this question 4 months ago I bet he'd have been the leading vote-getter.

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #24 on: April 19, 2014, 12:08:31 AM »

Offline Quetzalcoatl

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Dario Saric.  He is leading the Adriatic League in scoring and rebouding as a 3 and also won MVP.  The Adriatic League is a super league of all the Eastern European leagues and is considerably more competitive than the NCAA.  Saric signed a multiyear deal with a Euro team but could be bought out and is probably like the 5th - 8th best prospect in this class, he just won't play in the NBA for a year or two.  If he falls that far back because of that commitment, the talent is too good to pass up on and I really hope we get him.  He is only 20 so it's not that big a deal and it's not like we'll win the championship next year anyway.  Parker can play the 4 and Wiggins can play the 2

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #25 on: April 19, 2014, 12:09:53 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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always go for upside
said the agents of Kedrick Brown, Gabe Pruitt, JJJ, Marshon Brooks, Fab Melo, Gerald Green and JR Giddens
 ::)

Jajuan Johnson, Marshon Brooks, Pruitt and Giddens...are quite a bit of a stretch to be called upside picks.

Fab Melo is just a sad pick. I'm not sure if you could call it an upside pick as he wasn't young. The way he went about being a bust was sad.

I wanted PJIII, would have been a dream draft. Then I got suckered into rooting for Fab Melo, later much to my chagrin. Now I'm occasionally reminiscing of what could have been - that draft was deep.

I wish there was some way Olynyk or better yet Sully could swap bodies with Fab. I'm sure they would live with having a goofy face with all those physical tools.

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #26 on: April 19, 2014, 01:32:29 AM »

Offline LooseCannon

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It sounds like there might be several desirable guys available with the second pick so that it would make sense to explore moving down in the draft and picking up additional picks as an option.
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Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #27 on: April 19, 2014, 03:04:05 AM »

Offline chambers

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always go for upside
said the agents of Kedrick Brown, Gabe Pruitt, JJJ, Marshon Brooks, Fab Melo, Gerald Green and JR Giddens
 ::)


Jajuan Johnson, Marshon Brooks, Pruitt and Giddens...are quite a bit of a stretch to be called upside picks.

Fab Melo is just a sad pick. I'm not sure if you could call it an upside pick as he wasn't young. The way he went about being a bust was sad.

I wanted PJIII, would have been a dream draft. Then I got suckered into rooting for Fab Melo, later much to my chagrin. Now I'm occasionally reminiscing of what could have been - that draft was deep.

I wish there was some way Olynyk or better yet Sully could swap bodies with Fab. I'm sure they would live with having a goofy face with all those physical tools.

PJIII hasn't had the most opportunity being at OKC, but he is 1 or 2 seasons away from being a 100% bust.
Jeremy Lamb is getting there too.
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #28 on: April 19, 2014, 03:19:23 AM »

Offline bleedGREENdon

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Re: Which wing do you draft at #18?
« Reply #29 on: April 19, 2014, 08:49:25 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
Fab Melo is just a sad pick. I'm not sure if you could call it an upside pick as he wasn't young. The way he went about being a bust was sad.

Looking at his college stats there was no upside, he was crappy in college.  He had one skill shot blocking and that was it.  Totally over rated folks.