Author Topic: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED  (Read 37136 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #135 on: April 18, 2014, 06:42:06 PM »

Offline GreenWarrior

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3275
  • Tommy Points: 228
Yes, poor poor Boston.  When will we ever catch a break?



most of those banners are from decades ago. in the current NBA there definitely seems to be some bias.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #136 on: April 18, 2014, 06:47:33 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21238
  • Tommy Points: 2016
I don't like to fight old battles so I'm going to paint this in a positive light.   This coin-flip today is why a lot of us were getting frustrated with needless wins. I don't think we ever could have been worse than Philly or Milwaukee, but  2 more losses could have drastically changed our future.

TP
There is no excuse for winning those last two game.....this result a sorry coin toss screwed up the draft chances.

So twenty years from now .......when the team is still locked in a eight seed tie with Hornets .....maybe a new coach and GM will finally understand how to play by the NBA s recruiting rules.


Really bad......with no Rondo.  ...maybe  19 -22
With Rondo back Jan.  2014 ..... Maybe   25-30 could  be possible  with some luck

25 wins.  It is. ;D

Good enough for at worst the fifth draft pick....I hope  ;D

So the win total and draft slot turned out exactly where you hoped it would in October, and it's the end of the franchise?
TP to both of you guys.  Lol.  My favorite post of the day.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #137 on: April 18, 2014, 06:50:20 PM »

Online Neurotic Guy

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23322
  • Tommy Points: 2509
I don't like to fight old battles so I'm going to paint this in a positive light.   This coin-flip today is why a lot of us were getting frustrated with needless wins. I don't think we ever could have been worse than Philly or Milwaukee, but  2 more losses could have drastically changed our future.

TP
There is no excuse for winning those last two game.....this result a sorry coin toss screwed up the draft chances.

So twenty years from now .......when the team is still locked in a eight seed tie with Hornets .....maybe a new coach and GM will finally understand how to play by the NBA s recruiting rules.


Really bad......with no Rondo.  ...maybe  19 -22
With Rondo back Jan.  2014 ..... Maybe   25-30 could  be possible  with some luck

25 wins.  It is. ;D

Good enough for at worst the fifth draft pick....I hope  ;D

So the win total and draft slot turned out exactly where you hoped it would in October, and it's the end of the franchise?
TP to both of you guys.  Lol.  My favorite post of the day.

Agreed.   Foulweather with some spectacular research.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #138 on: April 18, 2014, 06:52:34 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

  • Johnny Most
  • ********************
  • Posts: 20738
  • Tommy Points: 2365
  • Be the posts you wish to see in the world.
Agreed.   Foulweather with some spectacular research.

To his credit LarBrd is the one that bumped the prediction thread or I'd've never noticed.

I just wonder how these folks get through the day.  Do people they work with have to hear them complaining endlessly about how their career is over because they didn't get that parking spot they wanted?

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #139 on: April 18, 2014, 06:56:25 PM »

Offline Sketch5

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3224
  • Tommy Points: 280
So the top 3 are in tier 1

Exum/Randle in tier 2

Then we pick #6 (most likely)...   Should have an ok player there... Vonleh, Smart or Gordon.  Still worth it. 

Congrats on the Top 8 pick, guys! :)   Should get a nice prospect there or use it in a larger trade.


I don't like to fight old battles so I'm going to paint this in a positive light.   This coin-flip today is why a lot of us were getting frustrated with needless wins. I don't think we ever could have been worse than Philly or Milwaukee, but  2 more losses could have drastically changed our future.

TP
There is no excuse for winning those last two game.....this result a sorry coin toss screwed up the draft chances.

So twenty years from now .......when the team is still locked in a eight seed tie with Hornets .....maybe a new coach and GM will finally understand how to play by the NBA s recruiting rules.

 ::)

First, the lottery hasn't happened, yeah we could have had a better shot at it, but that would have been doing what Mil/Phil/and Orlando did ad gut the team. That right there is how your spend 20 years locked int he 8th seed. In '07 we only lost 1 more game and that gave us the 2nd best chance, were the next worst team was 4 games back. And what happened then? 5th pick. Luckily DA worked some magic and got Allen, and the rest we all know.  Gutting the team and filling full of rookies, is what keeps you in the 8th seed. OKC is a rare exception. But they also got Durrant, and we don't know if there is a Durrant in this draft. Parker is as close as your going to get, but he may not be as good.

DA has set this team up very well to be able to do some things. The 2016 Nets pick could be huge. The 2018 pic is great trade bate, I would be willing to toss that becuase the Nets would have some chance of getting rid of contracts. But we still get their picks in 2016/2017, so 2018 would look good to some teams, and by that point we shouldn't really need an other rookie. Yeah you take a shot at missing out, but depending on the player and what he could bring, you take that shot.

DA was soured by tanking in '07, ad I can't blame him. Look at last year, the CAVS had the 8th best shot, and landed #1. The C's have had horrible luck in the draft no matter how bad they are, so to put all your marbles in that system is plan dumb.

It's not DA's fault that 3 other teams completely didn't show up this season. You can say they played it better, but they have no assets or good players, and will be bad for years, because they are all teams FA's don't tend to look at first and these rookies are 3 to 5 years out carrying their teams deep into the playoffs. At least we still have Rondo who has been threw it, and is a draw for some players to be willing to listen to a trade or just to sign. It's not great, but better than any of the other teams. Stevens has been getting recognition as well from players.

It would be really funny if all these people complaining about how DA screwed this up, and we end up in the top 3. And still have room to work some deals at the end of the day.

I still say he played it well, were to not put your team too far into the hole were climbing out hurts you more.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #140 on: April 18, 2014, 07:07:09 PM »

Online Neurotic Guy

  • Dave Cowens
  • ***********************
  • Posts: 23322
  • Tommy Points: 2509
The consensus top 4 appear to be Embiid, Parker, Wiggins and Exum.     

Who are other players with a decent chance (any chance) of breaking into the top 4 and sending one of the consensus 4 down to 5 or 6?  Make the case.

Randle?
Smart?
Gordon?
Other?

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #141 on: April 18, 2014, 07:28:49 PM »

Offline Mencius

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1121
  • Tommy Points: 103
Boston chance to end up 6-8 = 42.7%

Utah's chance to end up 6-8 = 19%

Very disappointing.  Sadly, being a Boston fan, one comes to expect that luck won't be on our side.  To win, we have to do it on our own, and to hell with luck.  Our own fault.  Should have lost a couple more games.

Well, keep in mind that our chance at slipping all the way to 8th is just 0.3%.  So I wouldn't stress too much over that outcome.

Another way to look at it is, our chance of picking 5-7 is a little over 66%, while Utah's is 56%.

The 10% difference being their shot at #4.

Basically, for both teams, the most likely outcome is a pick from 5-7.

Actually, our most likely outcome is a pick from 5-7 at 66.1%, whereas their most likely outcome is a pick from 4-6 at 59.8%.  Their chance of picking at 7 is a negligable 1.4%.

Quote from: mmmmm
I don't see a ton of consensus over who should be picked #5 over #6 over #7 so I kind of feel like 5-7 are sort of a wash in value at this point.   It's going to be some ordered combination from the set of Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart with an outside chance that Exum slips down (because someone may reach too early for one of Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart).

So, outside Utah's 1/10 shot at #4, I don't see a tremendous difference in the value of our positions right now.

I agree there's not an enormous general perceived difference in  Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart, but Danny likely has a more definitive pecking order, so I'd rather he have the ability to select from his list rather than picking from whoever Utah didn't take (assuming neither of us move up). 

My own opinion, I'm not high on Smart.  He can't shoot, and I don't think his PG skills are that great.  He's very tenacious though, and he's able to physically overpower college guards.  I don't see him as being a great pro. 

I wish I'd seen more of Randle, but what I did see of him, he seemed like he'd be a productive pro, but probably not great either.  He's good, but I was in no way blown away by him.  I admit that my sample size of him was puny, though.

Gordon has a lot of upside, though he can't shoot well either, but he does a lot of things that help a team win.  He could have a Shawn Marion-like career, and if he ever gets a reliable jumper, maybe better.  I see him as an SF, not a PF. 

Vonleh, I've only seen youtube clips of.  He has a lot of physical tools.  He'd be a post presence, both defensively and offensively.  So, of those four, I probably take Gordon or Vonleh.  The guy I really want is Exum, some how, some way.  He looks like he's got real star potential.

So, no real difference between Utah's and our chances at top 3, and the only real significant difference is that Danny might not get first crack at who he likes from the above mentioned 5-8 guys, and of course, we now have no shot at all at number 4 (where the guy I like may well be), whereas Utah's still got a 10% chance there.

Oh well, it's all spilled milk now.  Still, I'd rather be in Utah's shoes than ours.  Hopefully our luck changes in the actual lottery.  Too bad Wyc couldn't hire Nick Gilbert to sit in as our rep for that.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #142 on: April 18, 2014, 07:35:49 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3733
  • Tommy Points: 280
Yes, poor poor Boston.  When will we ever catch a break?



most of those banners are from decades ago. in the current NBA there definitely seems to be some bias.

Did you just mention Len Bias?

Because if so we're due for some luck.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #143 on: April 18, 2014, 08:15:45 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11833
  • Tommy Points: 950
Because if so we're due for some luck.

The gambler's fallacy:

Quote
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false.

Luck is luck.  Bad luck in the past does not presage compensatory good luck in the future.

Anyone who wants or doesn't want a certain slot based on how well teams in that slot have done in the lottery in the past are mathematical illiterates who might as well do a rain dance if they want to increase the probability of precipitation.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #144 on: April 18, 2014, 08:27:13 PM »

Offline Celtics18

  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11688
  • Tommy Points: 1469
Because if so we're due for some luck.

The gambler's fallacy:

Quote
The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). In situations where what is being observed is truly random (i.e. independent trials of a random process), this belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false.

Luck is luck.  Bad luck in the past does not presage compensatory good luck in the future.

Anyone who wants or doesn't want a certain slot based on how well teams in that slot have done in the lottery in the past are mathematical illiterates who might as well do a rain dance if they want to increase the probability of precipitation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2e1515l7Tc
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #145 on: April 18, 2014, 08:33:31 PM »

Offline Chief Macho

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1247
  • Tommy Points: 84
The consensus top 4 appear to be Embiid, Parker, Wiggins and Exum.     

Who are other players with a decent chance (any chance) of breaking into the top 4 and sending one of the consensus 4 down to 5 or 6?  Make the case.

Randle?
Smart?
Gordon?
Other?

I think if Gordon measure's in at a legit 6'10, which I'm hearing he could from reading the local papers,  he might be the fourth guy taken.   I really think he's getting underrated.  He doesn't shoot well right now, but there's nothing wrong with his shot.  By the end of the year he was hitting a few three's.    And when they watch the tape,  his defense is something special.  I don't know how to describe it,  but he has this way of rebounding and finishing at the rim that's just unique.   His first jump is unbelievable.   He's so coachable.   I think he could be a first team defensive player and allstar some day.   He's better than Sully and Kelly for sure.    I dunno,   I think the kid will be a star and the Blake Griffen comp's that were thrown out last summer aren't that far off.   I love the guy.   He's got an it factor.

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #146 on: April 18, 2014, 09:56:47 PM »

Offline Clench123

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3055
  • Tommy Points: 251
This one hurts

I always said when I left the Celtics, I could not go to heaven, because that would
 be a step down. I am pure 100 percent Celtic. I think if you slashed my wrists, my
 blood would’ve been green.  -  Bill "Greatest of All Time" Russell

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #147 on: April 18, 2014, 10:43:16 PM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18478
  • Tommy Points: 1551
No idea... but let's hope the coin flip doesn't matter and we end up in the Top 3.

u can say that again!!!!!!!!
LET'S GO CELTICS!

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #148 on: April 18, 2014, 11:02:33 PM »

Offline freshinthehouse

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1620
  • Tommy Points: 156
If you told everyone on this forum before  season the Celtics would end up tied for 4th I'm sure 95% of them would gladly take that.

Context makes people greedy.

TP+  Imagine convincing someone we'd be tied for 4th worst last Thanksgiving. 

Re: Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED
« Reply #149 on: April 18, 2014, 11:16:55 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 36776
  • Tommy Points: 2961
No idea... but let's hope the coin flip doesn't matter and we end up in the Top 3.

u can say that again!!!!!!!!

What  burns me up......is this didn't have to go down like this.

Epic lapse of Celtic leadership to win the last two games.

Well we made Celtic history anyway ...even if it was some god awful luck .