Boston chance to end up 6-8 = 42.7%
Utah's chance to end up 6-8 = 19%
Very disappointing. Sadly, being a Boston fan, one comes to expect that luck won't be on our side. To win, we have to do it on our own, and to hell with luck. Our own fault. Should have lost a couple more games.
Well, keep in mind that our chance at slipping all the way to 8th is just 0.3%. So I wouldn't stress too much over that outcome.
Another way to look at it is, our chance of picking 5-7 is a little over 66%, while Utah's is 56%.
The 10% difference being their shot at #4.
Basically, for both teams, the most likely outcome is a pick from 5-7.
Actually, our most likely outcome is a pick from 5-7 at 66.1%, whereas their most likely outcome is a pick from 4-6 at 59.8%. Their chance of picking at 7 is a negligable 1.4%.
I don't see a ton of consensus over who should be picked #5 over #6 over #7 so I kind of feel like 5-7 are sort of a wash in value at this point. It's going to be some ordered combination from the set of Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart with an outside chance that Exum slips down (because someone may reach too early for one of Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart).
So, outside Utah's 1/10 shot at #4, I don't see a tremendous difference in the value of our positions right now.
I agree there's not an enormous general perceived difference in Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart, but Danny likely has a more definitive pecking order, so I'd rather he have the ability to select from his list rather than picking from whoever Utah didn't take (assuming neither of us move up).
My own opinion, I'm not high on Smart. He can't shoot, and I don't think his PG skills are that great. He's very tenacious though, and he's able to physically overpower college guards. I don't see him as being a great pro.
I wish I'd seen more of Randle, but what I did see of him, he seemed like he'd be a productive pro, but probably not great either. He's good, but I was in no way blown away by him. I admit that my sample size of him was puny, though.
Gordon has a lot of upside, though he can't shoot well either, but he does a lot of things that help a team win. He could have a Shawn Marion-like career, and if he ever gets a reliable jumper, maybe better. I see him as an SF, not a PF.
Vonleh, I've only seen youtube clips of. He has a lot of physical tools. He'd be a post presence, both defensively and offensively. So, of those four, I probably take Gordon or Vonleh. The guy I really want is Exum, some how, some way. He looks like he's got real star potential.
So, no real difference between Utah's and our chances at top 3, and the only real significant difference is that Danny might not get first crack at who he likes from the above mentioned 5-8 guys, and of course, we now have no shot at all at number 4 (where the guy I like may well be), whereas Utah's still got a 10% chance there.
Oh well, it's all spilled milk now. Still, I'd rather be in Utah's shoes than ours. Hopefully our luck changes in the actual lottery. Too bad Wyc couldn't hire Nick Gilbert to sit in as our rep for that.