Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED

[mmmmm]

Boston chance to end up 6-8 = 42.7%

Utah's chance to end up 6-8 = 19%

Very disappointing.  Sadly, being a Boston fan, one comes to expect that luck won't be on our side.  To win, we have to do it on our own, and to hell with luck.  Our own fault.  Should have lost a couple more games.

Well, keep in mind that our chance at slipping all the way to 8th is just 0.3%.  So I wouldn't stress too much over that outcome.

Another way to look at it is, our chance of picking 5-7 is a little over 66%, while Utah's is 56%.

The 10% difference being their shot at #4.

Basically, for both teams, the most likely outcome is a pick from 5-7.

I don't see a ton of consensus over who should be picked #5 over #6 over #7 so I kind of feel like 5-7 are sort of a wash in value at this point.   It's going to be some ordered combination from the set of Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart with an outside chance that Exum slips down (because someone may reach too early for one of Randle/Vonleh/Gordon/Smart).

So, outside Utah's 1/10 shot at #4, I don't see a tremendous difference in the value of our positions right now.

[Smokeeye123]

Meh it sucks, but hey we are still technically tied for 4th lotto wise. Just gotta hope either us or the Jazz move into the top 3 and we have a good shot at 5.

[Tr1boy]

This is ok with me. If nothing happens on lotto night,  we can draft Gordon or Smart. I prefer Gordon

[Celtics39]

This is ok with me. If nothing happens on lotto night,  we can draft Gordon or Smart. I prefer Gordon

Don't really want Gordon. He cannot shoot. At all.

Smart is a terrible shooter as well, but he's still better than Gordon.

After the top 5 there is a pretty dramatic drop off IMO.

For me it goes:
Elite talent: Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum
Next tier: Julius Randle

next tier: Smart, gordon, Vonleh, etc

[Celtics39]

Don't get the big deal. They get an extra ping pong ball. Let's wait til May 20th before we all get depressed fellas. I got a good feeling about this year!

It's a big deal because it's better to be 4th than 5th pre-lottery.

[lightspeed5]

This is ok with me. If nothing happens on lotto night,  we can draft Gordon or Smart. I prefer Gordon

Don't really want Gordon. He cannot shoot. At all.

Smart is a terrible shooter as well, but he's still better than Gordon.

After the top 5 there is a pretty dramatic drop off IMO.

For me it goes:
Elite talent: Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Exum
Next tier: Julius Randle

next tier: Smart, gordon, Vonleh, etc

exum is in randles tier

[LarBrd33]

So the top 3 are in tier 1

Exum/Randle in tier 2

Then we pick #6 (most likely)...   Should have an ok player there... Vonleh, Smart or Gordon.  Still worth it. 

Congrats on the Top 8 pick, guys!    Should get a nice prospect there or use it in a larger trade.

[j804]

if we don't get a top 3 pick it'll be flipped among others for Love works for me

[LarBrd33]

if we don't get a top 3 pick it'll be flipped among others for Love works for me

I don't think the Kevin Love thing is realistic.  If he goes anywhere, it will be to the Lakers.

Could maybe trade the pick + Bass (expiring) + Joel Anthony (expiring)  for Josh Smith.  Seems more within the realm of reality.

More likely we just keep the kid.  There aren't any quick fixes.  This was a 3-5 year rebuild.  We have 2-4 years left.

[Chief Macho]

Just by Aaron Gordon's athleticism he's in Randle's tier.   He's just scratched the surface.  As a Arizona alum and having seen lot's of guys come through the school,  he's at the very top.   His defense and rebounding are outstanding.   

[LarBrd33]

Good news is that if we fall to 8... our decision will be pretty easy.  Just take whoever is left.  Probably Vonleh.

[truthteller]

So the top 3 are in tier 1

Exum/Randle in tier 2

Then we pick #6 (most likely)...   Should have an ok player there... Vonleh, Smart or Gordon.  Still worth it. 

Congrats on the Top 8 pick, guys!    Should get a nice prospect there or use it in a larger trade.

I don't like to fight old battles so I'm going to paint this in a positive light.   This coin-flip today is why a lot of us were getting frustrated with needless wins. I don't think we ever could have been worse than Philly or Milwaukee, but  2 more losses could have drastically changed our future. 

[86MaxwellSmart]

Everyone dissecting the odds...when on the day of the draft Lottery--they STILL:

1: Assign Number "combinations" to teams (in 2007-every Celtics combination had either #1 or #2)
2:Do a practice drawing
3:Take those balls out of the hopper
4:Bring in New Balls---from a Locked/Secured Briefcase--WHY-? What was WRONG with those original practice balls--?

very odd....just use the practice balls...and televise it--!

 

[SHAQATTACK]

This doesn't matter much. Its been top 3 or bust since day 1. Exum never excited me. If we end up with 5th or 6th so be it. It just means we won too many games and should have never let it get to a coin flip in the first place.

This is where I'm at too.

We really needed a top three .....Exum .....meh ....

We won too many games.

So.......close don't count ........

Pretty much the whole season screwed at the toss of a coin.  .....wow

I guess well be in the lottery three more years till we finally land talent .

NBA rebuilding sucks .....no way to get better fast unless you are the Lakers

[LarBrd33]

So the top 3 are in tier 1

Exum/Randle in tier 2

Then we pick #6 (most likely)...   Should have an ok player there... Vonleh, Smart or Gordon.  Still worth it. 

Congrats on the Top 8 pick, guys!    Should get a nice prospect there or use it in a larger trade.

I don't like to fight old battles so I'm going to paint this in a positive light.   This coin-flip today is why a lot of us were getting frustrated with needless wins. I don't think we ever could have been worse than Philly or Milwaukee, but  2 more losses could have drastically changed our future.

True.  Oh well.  At least we are picking in the Top 8... and not 15-18 like a couple short-sighted fans wanted.  Pretty sure we'll get a better prospect in the Top 8 than we could have gotten had we tripped into the playoffs with a losing record like Atlanta.