Coin Flip Results: Celtics get 5th Slot & 17th pick UPDATED

[winsomme]

huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.

I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.

I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.

I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is.  Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.

Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.

[slamtheking]

What I saw in the prior lottery results posted by LB is that the 6th seed has hit for 3 wins and gotten into the top 3 6 times.  That slot is about due for another upgrade.  will be so PO'ed if LA jumps us in the lottery. 

can't wait for the flip today.  so, if we don't win either of the flips today, is anyone going to 'flip out'? 

[D.o.s.]

huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.

I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.

I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.

I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is.  Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.

Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.

Sort of -- the pick isn't actually the pick until the draft lottery, and there's no way Ainge is trading it before the ping pong balls have done their job.

[hpantazo]

huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.

I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.

I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.

I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is.  Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.

Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.

I disagree. The coin flip really is just an extra ping pong ball. That's it. Regardless on the result of the flip, our odds of ending up with the 4th pick are minuscule. We have a much higher chance of getting a top 3 pick, and even a significantly higher chance of getting the 1st pick than we do of getting he 4th. Our highest odds are for getting the 5th pick, followed by he 6th pick. Our chance of getting the 4th is pretty similar to our chance of getting the 7th pick regardless of the coin flip. Basically, it's almost impossible that a team below us does not end up winning the lottery to jump into the top 3, thus knocking us down a pick.

Here are the odds for each pick for us from Sean Grande:
1st Pick: 10.4%
2nd Pick: 11.2%
3rd Pick: 12%
4th Pick: 5.0%
5th Pick: 30.6%
6th Pick: 26%
7th Pick: 4.8%
8th Pick: 0.2%


So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

[SHAQATTACK]

Well punk

Do ya feel lucky

Do ya?














Yup

[Roy H.]

huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.

I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.

I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.

I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is.  Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.

Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.

I disagree. The coin flip really is just an extra ping pong ball. That's it. Regardless on the result of the flip, our odds of ending up with the 4th pick are minuscule. We have a much higher chance of getting a top 3 pick, and even a significantly higher chance of getting the 1st pick than we do of getting he 4th. Our highest odds are for getting the 5th pick, followed by he 6th pick. Our chance of getting the 4th is pretty similar to our chance of getting the 7th pick regardless of the coin flip. Basically, it's almost impossible that a team below us does not end up winning the lottery to jump into the top 3, thus knocking us down a pick.

This is overstating things a bit, isn't it?

If nothing else, if we win the pick it's possible for us to pick 4th (with about a 10% chance); if we lose, it's not.

[clover]

huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.

I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.

I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.

I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is.  Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.

Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.

I disagree. The coin flip really is just an extra ping pong ball. That's it. Regardless on the result of the flip, our odds of ending up with the 4th pick are minuscule. We have a much higher chance of getting a top 3 pick, and even a significantly higher chance of getting the 1st pick than we do of getting he 4th. Our highest odds are for getting the 5th pick, followed by he 6th pick. Our chance of getting the 4th is pretty similar to our chance of getting the 7th pick regardless of the coin flip. Basically, it's almost impossible that a team below us does not end up winning the lottery to jump into the top 3, thus knocking us down a pick.

Here are the odds for each pick for us from Sean Grande:
1st Pick: 10.4%
2nd Pick: 11.2%
3rd Pick: 12%
4th Pick: 5.0%
5th Pick: 30.6%
6th Pick: 26%
7th Pick: 4.8%
8th Pick: 0.2%


So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

[Roy H.]

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

It also takes our chances from falling out of the top-5 from around 43% to only 19%.  That's a fairly substantial change.

[fairweatherfan]

So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

That's a little misleading - as Harry said, the odds of top 3 stay about the same, the increased odds of "top 4" are almost entirely just increased odds of #4.  Which is still good, but it doesn't move the needle much on the odds of 1-3.

The biggest difference to me is that if we don't move up and get leapfrogged by one team (the most probable outcome in either spot, I believe) we pick 5th instead of 6th.  And there's nearly no chance of falling out of the top 6, whereas that's more likely in the 5 spot.

[Smokeeye123]

Busting out the four leaf clover avatar. LETS GO CELTICS!! Luck of the irish!

Not exactly a pro at odds/game theory but isn't there a 75% chance that we win one of the 50/50 psuedo-coin flips?

[LarBrd33]

So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

That's a little misleading - as Harry said, the odds of top 3 stay about the same, the increased odds of "top 4" are almost entirely just increased odds of #4.  Which is still good, but it doesn't move the needle much on the odds of 1-3.

The biggest difference to me is that if we don't move up and get leapfrogged by one team (the most probable outcome in either spot, I believe) we pick 5th instead of 6th.  And there's nearly no chance of falling out of the top 6, whereas that's more likely in the 5 spot.

If neither team gets leapfrogged and the top 3 goes as the odds dictate (Bucks, Philly, Orlando), winner of the coin flip will pick 4th and the loser will pick 5th.  So if you see this as a 4 player draft... the coin flip is kind of important.

Winner of the coin flip can't fall below 7.  Loser can't fall below 8.

[winsomme]

So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

That's a little misleading - as Harry said, the odds of top 3 stay about the same, the increased odds of "top 4" are almost entirely just increased odds of #4.  Which is still good, but it doesn't move the needle much on the odds of 1-3.

The biggest difference to me is that if we don't move up and get leapfrogged by one team (the most probable outcome in either spot, I believe) we pick 5th instead of 6th.  And there's nearly no chance of falling out of the top 6, whereas that's more likely in the 5 spot.

If neither team gets leapfrogged and the top 3 goes as the odds dictate (Bucks, Philly, Orlando), winner of the coin flip will pick 4th and the loser will pick 5th.  So if you see this as a 4 player draft... the coin flip is kind of important.

Winner of the coin flip can't fall below 7.  Loser can't fall below 8.

Also, if we lose the coin flip our chance of picking 4th is zero. We cannot pick 4th if we lose the flip

[fairweatherfan]

So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

The flip is for more than just a ping pong ball--it ups the C's chances of landing in the top four by about a third. Here's an article explaining it: http://www.nba.com/celtics/news/sidebar/inside-numbers-draft-lottery-qa

That's a little misleading - as Harry said, the odds of top 3 stay about the same, the increased odds of "top 4" are almost entirely just increased odds of #4.  Which is still good, but it doesn't move the needle much on the odds of 1-3.

The biggest difference to me is that if we don't move up and get leapfrogged by one team (the most probable outcome in either spot, I believe) we pick 5th instead of 6th.  And there's nearly no chance of falling out of the top 6, whereas that's more likely in the 5 spot.

If neither team gets leapfrogged and the top 3 goes as the odds dictate (Bucks, Philly, Orlando), winner of the coin flip will pick 4th and the loser will pick 5th.  So if you see this as a 4 player draft... the coin flip is kind of important.

Winner of the coin flip can't fall below 7.  Loser can't fall below 8.

I completely agree, the flip is important.  It's just a little misleading to talk about having much better odds of a top 4 pick when it's really just much better odds of 4th.

[Celtics39]

huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.

I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.

I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.

I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is.  Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.

Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.

I disagree. The coin flip really is just an extra ping pong ball. That's it. Regardless on the result of the flip, our odds of ending up with the 4th pick are minuscule. We have a much higher chance of getting a top 3 pick, and even a significantly higher chance of getting the 1st pick than we do of getting he 4th. Our highest odds are for getting the 5th pick, followed by he 6th pick. Our chance of getting the 4th is pretty similar to our chance of getting the 7th pick regardless of the coin flip. Basically, it's almost impossible that a team below us does not end up winning the lottery to jump into the top 3, thus knocking us down a pick.

Here are the odds for each pick for us from Sean Grande:
1st Pick: 10.4%
2nd Pick: 11.2%
3rd Pick: 12%
4th Pick: 5.0%
5th Pick: 30.6%
6th Pick: 26%
7th Pick: 4.8%
8th Pick: 0.2%


So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:

1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)

2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)

3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)

Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.

If we win the coin flip, those odds will increase greatly for our chances of getting a top 5 pick. The flip is very important.

If we win the coin flip, we have a 81% chance at a top 5 pick.

If we lose the coin flip, we have a 57.1% chance at a top 5 pick.

Additionally,

our chances at a top 4 pick:
if we win the coin flip- 43.7%
if we lose the coin flip- 33.4%


Soooo yeah..coin flip is rather important.

[winsomme]

I think there is something that gets missed in this discussion and that's that the NBA draft is an irrational perception driven process. It's how a guy like Kwame Brown gets picked #1.

So at the end of the day, it doesn't really matter whether Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, and Exum end up being franchise players or that some already know they are overrated.... The thing that matters is that most think that they are huge talents and the perception is that if you can get one you can present them as franchise changers.

Thus, for a GM like Danny, the value of a top 4 pick is exponential.