There is a 67.1% chance that either the Jazz or the Celtics will make it into the top 3. So we will only be negatively effected by this flip 32.9% of the time.
Its a significant loss in scenarios where both the celtics and jazz miss the top 3, but people should remember this hardly effects our chances of getting into the top 3. (all we lost was one ping pong ball.)
I'm glad we won the second one. Obviously it's the less valuable pick. But going into the day our best possible scenario is pick #1 and #17, and that is still in play.
Sorry, i'm an optimist.