huge difference between 4 and 5 IMO. Not in terms of Exum or Jabari being better pros long term than say Randle or Vonleh but simply in terms of the value of the pick around the league.
I am hoping Danny can land an All Star via trade thus keeping Rondo here, but I think he needs a top 4 pick to make that happen. There simply IMO is more cache with those top 4 picks. It's been building all season and now it's here because they (the big 4) have all declared.
I am hoping we win that flip....holy cow am I hoping. It could completely change the course of our rebuild.
I get the sense that most folks don't fully understand how important this flip is. Not just about a few extra ping pong balls.
Agreed. TP. Flip is huge.
I disagree. The coin flip really is just an extra ping pong ball. That's it. Regardless on the result of the flip, our odds of ending up with the 4th pick are minuscule. We have a much higher chance of getting a top 3 pick, and even a significantly higher chance of getting the 1st pick than we do of getting he 4th. Our highest odds are for getting the 5th pick, followed by he 6th pick. Our chance of getting the 4th is pretty similar to our chance of getting the 7th pick regardless of the coin flip. Basically, it's almost impossible that a team below us does not end up winning the lottery to jump into the top 3, thus knocking us down a pick.
Here are the odds for each pick for us from Sean Grande:
1st Pick: 10.4%
2nd Pick: 11.2%
3rd Pick: 12%
4th Pick: 5.0%
5th Pick: 30.6%
6th Pick: 26%
7th Pick: 4.8%
8th Pick: 0.2%
So, regardless of the coin flip, our most likely outcome is:
1. Ending up with a top 3 pick (33 percent)
2. Ending up with the 5th pick (30 percent)
3. Ending up with the 6th pick (26 percent)
Anything else is highly unlikely and the coin flip doesn't change that.